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Footsie Hasn’t Topped Yet; Shows Bullish PatternWe talked about Footsie back in May 2024, where we mentioned and highlighted an ongoing 5th wave in the weekly chart with space up to 8800 – 9400 target area. Footsie a.k.a. FTSE100 or UK100 stock market index is still bullish with nice and clean inverted H&S pattern on a daily chart. After a higher degree A-B-C correction in wave (4), it can be getting ready for a bullish continuation within wave (5) by a new lower degree bullish setup formation. With sharp leg up into wave 1, we are actually tracking an a-b-c pullback in wave 2, where subwave »c« is coming out of subwave »b« triangle, so ideal support is at 8100 – 8000 area, from where we should be aware of a bullish resumption for wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle.
ICEEUR:Z1!Long
by ew-forecast
Microsoft (MSFT): Decision Point – Will It Hold or Drop?Since our last analysis on Microsoft, not much has changed in terms of price action, as it rose to $469 before getting stuck again at $416. However, there is one major development – Microsoft has formed a new trend channel. We have marked this crucial channel in red and labeled it "Must hold for more upside," emphasizing its importance. A major decision is approaching for $MSFT. Either Microsoft holds this channel, leading to a surge higher, or it loses this level, which would confirm the bearish head and shoulder pattern. We've maintained a bearish outlook on Microsoft since January 2024, and recent developments seem to support our analysis. For now, we're patiently waiting and letting the market decide. If Microsoft loses the channel, we could find initial support for wave (A) around $316-306. However, a better buying opportunity for wave II may present itself closer to $220 – though reaching this level will take some time. 🫡
NASDAQ:MSFT
by freeguy_by_wmc
Toncoin Resumes Its Bullish TrendToncoin with ticker TONUSD made a bigger decline recently after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was Arrested in France. However, they were most likely just spreading the fear like back in 2022 when FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested as well, but Crypto market found the low back then and turned bullish. So, don't get scared at this stage, as TONUSD may have just finished a deeper A-B-C correction in wave (4) from where we can expect a bullish resumption for wave (5) of 3. It's actually nicely bouncing from projected support area for wave (4), so wave (5) can be now in progress, especially if jumps back above channel resistance line and 7.3 bullish confirmation level. If that will be the case, then wave (5) has space towards 12-14 target area. In Elliott wave theory, every impulse should be finished by a five-wave cycle.
CRYPTO:TONUSDLong
by ew-forecast
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Bearish Scenario on the HorizonYou have to hear us out on this one, as we are presenting a very bearish scenario, but we will explain why we think it could unfold this way. First, let's look at the weekly chart (yes, the weekly chart). This chart shows a near-perfect Elliott wave and Fibonacci count, respecting all the important theoretical points well. If this analysis is correct, we are currently in the last push of wave (5) to end this large cycle. After that, we should see lower prices for a higher wave II. We give the current wave (5) a maximum target of $271, but it is more likely to drop before we reach that level. In the the main chart, we zoomed in to make it clearer. Everything depends on whether we are correct about wave (3) and wave (4). If our count is accurate, wave (3) should conclude between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. NYSE:JPM has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI, and if the stock drops below $190, we expect prices to fall further, ideally between $178.46 and $149, for one last push higher to conclude this cycle. It will take some time until we get there, but good things take time, and we are ready for it to play out. Alerts are set, and the plan is in place. 😎
NYSE:JPMLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Salesforce (CRM): Potential bearish flag formingOne of our members asked for an analysis on Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), and we've taken a closer look at it. Initially, it's a bit challenging to see the full picture, but if our Elliott Wave count is accurate, we marked the end of wave (2) at $115.29 after establishing wave B, which was exactly between the 127.2% and 138% Fibonacci levels. It appears that wave 1 was put in with a new high slightly above wave B, taking out the resting liquidity (likely due to profit-taking and closing of long positions). Following this, there was a 33% drop, and here's where it gets tricky. Normally, we would expect this decline to continue, suggesting that the current rise is merely a relief pump. However, wave ((a)) perfectly touched the HVN POC, which indicates a slight chance that this could be the bottom. That said, we still believe that a continuation down to the 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci level is more likely. Zooming in on the blue-circled area, we notice a textbook bear flag pattern developing. While we don't typically trade based on chart patterns, it is difficult to ignore this one given its clear structure. It becomes even more significant if there is a wick above the upper trend line of the flag, which could trigger another sell-off by taking out the liquidation levels. Such a wick would also fully close the gap and enter our targeted area where we anticipate a possible reversal. To be clear, we are not trading this bear flag pattern or the targeted area just yet. Instead, we are using this setup as a means to validate whether our bearish outlook is correct or not. We’ll continue to monitor the development closely and provide updates as we gain more clarity.
NYSE:CRMShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
McDonald's (MCD): Time for a Correction!We predicted it back in March, and sometimes you have to give yourself a pat on the shoulder when things play out exactly as expected. A little over six months ago, we said that Wave (A) would likely hit $245.88, and what did we get? $244, which is less than a 1% difference from our target. After that, the stock surged by 24% to what now seems like another high. Now we find ourselves back at the range high, and we must treat it with caution. Since March, we've been hoping for this exact scenario to unfold, but we're not ready to jump into a short position on NYSE:MCD just yet! The rise has been pretty strong, and we're seeing the RSI hovering around the overbought area. Given this price level, we could either see a smaller pullback before heading higher—possibly up to the 127.2%-138% Fibonacci extension—or NYSE:MCD could fall lower after losing the mid-range level. In both scenarios, we would like to see lower prices as we still haven't concluded Wave II. We’ve zoomed in on the chart now, but whether we’re right or wrong, we’ll zoom back out to reevaluate when the time is right. This serves as the perfect reminder that good things take time 🚀.
NYSE:MCDShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
4
Alphabet (GOOGL): Gap Fill and the Future of Wave (2)We remain convinced that Alphabet is currently in Wave (2) after the well-defined end of Wave (1) at $197. Following that, we saw a sharp and fast sell-off, which looks more like a Wave A rather than the full Wave (2). This is further supported by the fact that the sell-off respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level perfectly, a typical level for Wave A. We still have an open gap above, and we believe this should get filled, especially considering the nature of Wave A. We're expecting Wave B to reach between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Right between these two levels lies the gap, making it highly likely that this gap will get filled before we continue the downtrend. Looking further ahead, if you're asking where we would consider buying shares, there are two potential opportunities. The first is around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the Point of Control (POC), and the second is lower in what we call the "Great Buy" zone, between $116 and $100. While this might seem like a significant drop, we saw a similar decline in 2022, so nothing is off the table. We'll keep monitoring this closely for you.
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Light Crude Oil Futures: Mid East Tensions Fuel Price Surge!Light Crude Oil Futures (CL): NYMEX:CL1! As mentioned in our morning briefing, oil is currently extremely interesting, partly due to increasing tensions in the Middle East and the destruction of oil reserves there as well as in Russia. Consequently, oil prices have surged significantly. We are currently at a level of $85, but we still consider it quite likely that the Wave Y and the overarching Wave II have not yet concluded. We expect a three-part movement towards Y, with this Y anticipated to be in the range between 127.2% and 161.8% of a Wave C. This would place it between $63.2 and $57.4, nearly forming a double bottom with Wave ((b)) at $63.64. We would invalidate this scenario and consider a bullish outlook if we surpass the $90 mark in Crude Oil Futures. Should the price fall from here, we would then expect a five-wave structure downwards. However, caution is advised with oil due to the significant political and geopolitical influences on its price. The upcoming elections at the end of the year are particularly noteworthy, as a lower gasoline price in America is hugely important for electoral success, ensuring wins. With rising oil prices and the depletion of reserves, with hardly any reserves left in America, it will likely be necessary to purchase a large amount of oil. Considering the current economic stance of America, this task appears challenging. There is only one option if the goal is to lower oil prices for repurchasing. Even a $20 difference is substantial when buying as much oil as a country the size of America needs. Therefore, we still expect prices to fall further before we see a reversal.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by freeguy_by_wmc
Crude Oil (CL1!): Waiting for the perfect entry after declineWe have continued to see crude oil prices fall lower and lower since we first analyzed it five months ago. The recent price decline is largely attributed to a worsening demand outlook. According to Commerzbank, the post-pandemic normalisation of demand growth in China has sharply deteriorated. Between April and July, oil demand was even lower than the previous year, and data released last weekend offers little hope for improvement in Chinese crude oil processing for August. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand down to 900,000 barrels per day, with China accounting for just 20% of that growth. What was once a driver of demand is now seen as a drag on the market. The IEA projects that oil demand in China will rise by 260,000 barrels per day by 2025. With the continued struggles of global oil demand on one side and Middle East tensions on the other, it makes sense to set a limit order on crude oil as we closely watch how well NYMEX:CL1! respects the key levels on the chart. We're still targeting the $63.23-$57 range for a potential buy-in as we continue to monitor the market for an ideal entry point.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
4
Apple (AAPL): After the Gap Close, What’s Next?In our last analysis, we perfectly predicted the top for Apple at $233, and since then, the stock has been declining due to multiple factors. Apple dropped nearly 3%, driven by concerns over weaker-than-expected demand for the latest iPhone model during its first weekend, according to a securities analyst at TF International in Hong Kong. China’s performance continues to drag on Apple’s financials this year, particularly in the first quarter when sales dropped by 24%. Full-year sales from China are expected to reach $60 billion, down from $72.6 billion in 2023, which accounted for a significant portion of Apple’s $383.3 billion overall revenue. For now, we maintain a bearish outlook for Apple after the stock completed a gap close and was rejected at the 88.6% Fibonacci level. However, we are still eyeing an entry point and getting closer to it. We’re now placing a limit order to catch a potential dip. Our primary target is a possible double bottom around $196. While the price could dip even lower, we are playing this with a wider stop-loss and may use a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) approach, as multiple entry points could emerge. Let’s see how the next few days or weeks unfold!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low. While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
CBOE:SPX
by ew-forecast
Airbnb (ABNB): Holding the line, but for how long?!After charting Airbnb one month ago, we’ve seen another slight dip, and one of our members rightly pointed out that Airbnb has reacted well to the $113.60 price level. This level has acted as support for the fourth time now, and it seems like it could hold. However, t here’s a big BUT —we’re not placing an entry just yet. Trying to catch the exact bottom of Wave 1 can be risky and extremely difficult. Instead, we are more focused on waiting for a possible short opportunity if Airbnb rises again. Airbnb continues to struggle, and we don't want to catch this falling knife too early, risking unnecessary losses. We’ll keep monitoring the situation closely, and if we gain more confidence that this is indeed the end of Wave 1, we’ll let you know. 🫡
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
2
Amazon (AMZN): Swing Trade & Chart Analysis UpdateTwo months ago, we anticipated a pullback to wave (2), and after a brief pump, we saw an immediate sell-off. The fascinating part? Amazon dropped 25% and reversed almost perfectly on the long-held trendline, which hasn’t been adjusted. It's incredible how simple technicals can sometimes work so well. We've now pushed back into the $183-190 range. This could be a relief pump, likely short-lived. While we aren’t ruling out a rise above the current wave (1), we’re leaning toward a flat correction, as wave A was fast. If correct, we should turn soon and continue downward with a 5-wave structure into the 50-78.6% Fibonacci retracement target area. No limit orders yet, but we're setting alerts to better time our entry. 🔥
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
3
Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade." Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession. Let’s break this down: Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late. Looking back at past events: The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed. The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%. Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s. The big questions are: Why does this combination signal trouble? Will this pattern repeat itself again? While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster. Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop. It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
TVC:DJIShort
by oh92
1
JPN225 Correction Persists Ahead of the BoJThe Japanese index managed to swiftly rebound from the plunge caused by the central bank’s second rate hike and hawkish messaging at the end of July, as the market rout created some apprehension around the policy shift. Furthermore, the monetary setting remains accommodative and interests rates are still near-zero, while the stock market’s appeal goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. JPN225 comes from a strong week, fueled largely by the upbeat messaging from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that spilled over to Japanese chip makers. Advantest and Tokyo Electron, two of Nikkei’s largest constituents, jumped more than 7%. As a result the index tries to regain the EMA200 that would allow it to exit its correction and challenge the August highs (39,204). However, the index is cautious this week, as tech optimism wanes and markets await the BoJ’s decision, preceded by inflation update. Policymakers are unlikely to raise rates again, but communication around the path ahead will be crucial. Official have pointed to further tightening ahead and another hike this year is reasonable, as inflation is well above 2%, wages have increased and Q2 GDP posted strong growth. Furthermore, the monetary policy shift and the Yen’s rebound have led to outflows from foreigners over the past seven months. JPN225 stays in correction and below the EMA200 the risk of bear market persists, although sustained below that threshold has a higher degree of difficulty. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
HelenP. I Gold can make correction movement, after impulse upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price rebounded up from support 2, which coincided with the support zone and little growth, but soon turned around and dropped lower this level, breaking it and reaching the trend line. Then the price started to move up inside the upward channel, where it soon broke support 2 again and rose to the resistance line of the channel, after which corrected to the support zone. Next, Gold continued to move up inside the upward channel and later it reached support 1, which coincided with the support zone. Then price some time traded near this level and a little later it corrected the trend line, which support line of the channel also, after which turned around and backed up to support 1. Soon, Gold broke this level and continued to move up inside the channel, so, now I expect that XAUUSD will rise to almost the resistance line of the channel and then drop to the 2525 support level, making a correction movement after a strong impulse up. That's why the support level is my goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FirstNameHelen
4
EURUSD Correction after hitting a ResistanceEURUSD has formed a tweezer candle pattern on the weekly chart, indicating a potential reversal. This pattern suggests that the recent move may have been a false breakout above 1.1200. Since June, the pair has seen a strong bullish run, and it now seems poised for a correction. We could see a complex pullback, potentially forming an ABC pattern, as the price has broken and closed below a key upward trendline that has held for the past two months. The market may test levels below the psychological mark of 1.1000. The target is the support level at 1.09800
Short
by RTED_Investing
#GBPCAD possible head and shoulder formationAs you can see in the chart, we might be observing a potential Head and Shoulders pattern forming on the 1H timeframe in GBPCAD. Given the bearish market structure on the 4H timeframe, this 1H bullish move could be viewed as a corrective rally within the larger downtrend. Additionally, there is a bearish divergence between the left shoulder and the head, further strengthening the bearish confluence. To enter a sell position, I recommend waiting for the price to drop below the 1H EMA (blue line) and then look for a bearish setup to confirm the trade.
Short
by mohemati
JPN225 Drops Back to Correction TerritoryThe benchmark Japanese index experienced a steep decline after the central bank stepped up is tightening efforts at the start of the month, but was able to cover the losses as investors calmed down. However, the BoJ is likely to raise rates again and along with the Yen’s rebound, JPN225 could face sustained headwinds. The index loses ground this week and falls back to contraction territory, as Nvidia’s slump amidst broader tech fears, spills over to Japan. Key Japanese chip manufacturing equipment companies and major Nikkei constituents like Tokyo Electron and Advantest suffered heavy losses. JPN225 is now exposed to the 38.2% Fibonacci of its recent rebound, which bring back the risk of a near market. On the other hand the RSI points to oversold conditions, while the stock market’s strength goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. Above the 38.2% Fibonacci, JPN225 can push for higher highs (39,204), although sustained advance has a higher degree of difficulty under current conditions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225Short
by FXCM
1
Gold Demand Surges in Asia as Local Currencies Weaken the gold market is expected to maintain a soft upward trend. This projection is supported by several factors, including technical indicators showing positive momentum that isn't yet in the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is upward. In the short term, the price of gold is likely to stay around the $2,500 level, with possible resistance at $2,480 and support near $2,430. If there is a significant pullback, it could be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially if prices dip towards these support levels. However, a break below $2,400 could indicate a deeper correction​ Overall, the gold market is showing a bullish bias, with the possibility of prices continuing to rise throughout the month, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties​
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BELLATRIXFX