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Nifty Analysis - The No-Nonsense "0" Indicator Strategy!!!While trading on Indices, most of us adopt 3 major strategies Intraday / BTST Trades: Referring the Open Interest (OI) positions Positional Short Term Expiry: Mostly using Chart patterns at 1 hr or 1 day coupled with Indicators like EMA 9, EMA 21, Bollinger Bands, MACD, RSI, RSI divergence etc... Positional Long Term Expiry: Using Chart patterns at different timeframes 1 hr, 1 day, 1 week etc.. in the Nifty Index Sometimes, a combination of the above 2 strategies are being used. When we fail, we talk about mentality and most often accept the failures and look for next trade. Seldom, anyone does back-testing to identify the real problem Let's review the cases above 1. Open Interest (OI) based trades = Blind Betting on a Horse which has Max bets cdn.geekvibesnation.com Without understanding the Strength, Stamina, Agility, Medical condition of a Horse, if we take bets on a horse where there is already maximum betting - the odds of winning may be higher for a Horse Race. But such blind betting ends up in confirmed failures in stock market - if we base our positions referring to OI positions because AlgoTraders & Big players usually create a Bait showing an extremely high position on one side and the moment innocent retailers are lured in that direction, using power of money & power of Algo Speed, the OI positions are cancelled and changed to opposite direction The movement is so fast that it neither hits our SL nor our preset Targets (even if it is in our favor by coincidence) - ending up in Steep losses 2. Reliance of Various Indicators = Getting attacked by Octopus img.freepik.com An index like Nifty 50 is NOT just a combination of 50 stocks, but these 50 stocks are handpicked from different Sectors and each Stock has different Weightage. A sudden News on Any particular Sector (or) A news about a particular Stock (or) Quarterly Results combined with the weightage of the Sector & Stock have a very Dynamic impact on the Nifty Index. Unlike a linear price movement on a particular stock, Index movement cannot be accurately predicted by ANY of the indicators. Especially during special situations like Quarterly Results (or) during Election (or) during Budget - there would be sudden variations across different sectors each with their weightage will have varied impact on Nifty. Like an Octopus - which can attack us using all its 8 Tentacles with varied force and independent movement - any human based algorithm considering the price values only of the Index becomes useless 3. Using Chart patterns of Index = Judging the Book by Its Cover miro.medium.com Almost all Traders are so engulfed within the Index's spot prices and premiums that we almost forget that the Index movement is NOT based on its Cover but rather based on the underlying 50 stocks. What we are doing is nothing but Gambling against the cover - which does not handle sudden turns in any of the underlying stocks which coupled with their weightage has very varied impact and becomes unpredictable Let's ignore ALL the Non-Sense above and try to read the Book (the underlying stocks) and derive trends basis Support and resistances of Index & stocks instead of using indicators Comparison of Nifty Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly: 1. The June Quarter Candle ended with strong bullish indicating that Nifty would be Green in subsequent quarter (July-September) 2. But June Monthly candle ended in a Bearish Hammer pattern (Long wick and short candle) which is an indication of Temporary Bearish Reversal for July month 3. Last week's candle ended in a Shooting Star pattern indicating a Fall this week 4. July 22 (Monday - Today's) daily candle ended negatively below Friday close. Despite a strong rise in the 1st hour propelled solely by HDFC, both Nifty and HDFC could not sustain the bounce, and both got rejected by their respective resistances and fell down indicating further downside The Above Index Analysis is perfectly in-line with our earlier analysis of RED July and GREEN September Now for a more sharp analysis, let's analyze the Top 10 Nifty stocks by weightage Top constituents by weightage HDFC Bank Ltd. 11.95 Reliance Industries Ltd. 9.98 ICICI Bank Ltd. 7.95 Infosys Ltd. 5.33 Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 3.91 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 3.73 ITC Ltd. 3.70 Bharti Airtel Ltd. 3.64 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.39 State Bank of India 3.07 1. HDFC Despite a 3% rise in HDFC - which single-handedly lifted Nifty higher in the 1st couple of hours, HDFC Bank faced its resistance at 1645 and fell - pulling Nifty down. Given HDFC has highest weightage and with no major news expected for HDFC or Private Banks as part of the Budget, the movement is expected to go sideways between Resistance and immediate support thus Dragging / Denying a major upside for Nifty 2. Reliance Reliance industries on daily, had formed a Double Top Breakdown - resulting a Crash of -3.5% in a single day. The price took support from previous Rounding Bottom Break out zone at 3001. this is attributed to a lack-lusture quarterly performance. The price will take some breathing and consolidate around CMP for some more days which will again arrest Nifty on downside given its weightage 3. ICICI Bank Monthly chart on ICICI clearly shows price testing a Long Term Parallel Channel top as resistance. This is about to fall further in the absence of any boost to Private Banking Sector. This is the 3rd heavy weight component of Nifty - all trying to hold Nifty on downside 4. Infy Despite posting strong Q1 results, Infy could not blast due to multiple resistances along the way (Parallel Channel + Rounding Bottom Resistance) etc...Unless 1850 is broken out decisively, Infy will not aid in lifting Nifty higher 5. L&T After a sharp rally of nearly 6x from 650 to 3860, L&T is up against a Multi-year Trendline (Parallel Channel) resistance and on weekly, the price has formed a Double Top pattern which is neither activated nor negated. Until the price decisively blasts above 3860 and also break the smaller channel on upside, there is no hope for now for Nifty to go up 6. TCS TCS by itself is struggling for nearly 4 years to break its previous ATH. Price is now on the verge of Cup and Handle Breakout on weekly, but 4290 has poised as a formidable resistance so far 7. ITC ITC on weekly has completed a Double Bottom breakout and achieved the target as well. After reaching the target, price is now starting to face resistance as this has evolved into a larger Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern. It is still Bullish in longer term, but now the price fall has triggered the beginning of Right Shoulder which is expected to reverse between 425 and 418. The trajectory of the fall to 425 where there is a multiple combination of support + trendline + right shoulder level - though bullish, will consume time atleast until Sep denying an upside for Nifty in the short term Similarly the charts of SBI - , Axis bank - and Airtel - all indicate formidable resistances ahead - putting blockers for the Nifty March.... The above strategy appears more accurate as it directly handles each of the different sector charts along with their weightage and there doesn't seem to be any confusion among any of the top 10 constituents of Nifty - all indicating downside in near term This strategy does not Rely on 3rd Party Indicators which are inaccurate. Please share your views on this detailed Research and Analysis Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT registered with SEBI. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Stocks-n-Trends
4
Unlocking XAUUSD Secrets: Prepare for Gold's Next Big Move!Technical Breakdown of XAUUSD Correctively Reached HTF Structure: The price has reached a higher time frame (HTF) structure through a corrective movement. This structure serves as a significant resistance level observed on higher time frames. Impulsively Got Here: Following the corrective phase, the price made an impulsive move upward, indicating strong buying momentum at that point. Forming Correction: After the impulsive move, the price is forming a correction pattern, typically signaling a potential continuation of the previous trend. This pattern is evident as a descending channel or flag formation. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance at 2,412.678: A significant resistance level that the price tested but did not break through decisively. Support at 1HR LQZ (2,391.555): A key support level on the 1-hour chart where the price found temporary stability. Support at 4HR LQZ (2,348.039): A more substantial support level on the 4-hour chart, providing a strong base for potential reversals. Descending Channel Formation: The price is currently trading within a descending channel. This pattern often suggests a continuation of the prevailing trend upon a breakout. Key Level Highlight: Break Back Above Lower High (LH): The chart notes that a break back above the identified lower high (LH) would indicate a further pullback. This level is crucial as it may signal a change in short-term momentum. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: Breakout Above Descending Channel and LH Level: If the price breaks out above the descending channel and the LH level, it may indicate a further pullback and continuation of the upward trend. The price is likely to test the resistance zone near 2,412.678 and could move higher if it breaks through this zone. Bearish Scenario: Failure to Break Above LH Level: If the price fails to break above the LH level and descends further, it may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. The price could test the 1HR LQZ support level first and potentially move down to the 4HR LQZ support level if bearish momentum continues. Consolidation and Patterns: The chart suggests that the price is currently consolidating within a tight range, indicating indecision. This could lead to a significant move upon breakout from this consolidation pattern. Conclusion: Monitoring the breakout direction from the current descending channel and the reaction to the LH level will provide valuable insights for potential trading opportunities. Key levels to watch include the 2,412.678 resistance zone and the 1HR and 4HR LQZ support levels. A breakout above the descending channel would favor a bullish scenario, while a failure to break above the LH level could suggest continued bearish pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Adlercon333
Silver (XAGUSD): Anticipating a Wave 4 CorrectionSince our entry at $26.31, silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching up to $32.50. We anticipate a correction downward to form a Wave 4. The recent rise to $32.50 indicates a strong upward movement, but now a correction is expected. We expect silver to correct downward into the 38.2% to 50% retracement zone before continuing its upward trend. Our strategy involves maintaining our current stop-loss level without adjustment while allowing the market to correct. We have already secured some profits, reducing our risk. We are targeting the 38.2% to 50% Fibonacci retracement zone for potential re-entry, which will likely provide a strong support area for the next upward movement.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Gold (XAUUSD): New All-Time High - Double Top or Further Surge?Gold has reached a new all-time high, creating either a double top or peaking at a maximum of $2,487. The price turned within a very narrow range between $2,472 and $2,487, which was remarkably precise. The precise turnaround within the small range indicates significant resistance at this level. Our primary scenario anticipates a pullback towards $2,200 before the trend resumes upward. This level is crucial for confirming a long-term bullish trend. Alternatively, if the price does not pull back and instead rejects at the Point-of-Control, we may see a continued upward movement. Should the price break above $2,487, we will cancel our long limit order as the bearish pullback scenario would be invalidated.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Bayer (BAYN): End of a long 9-year correctionBayer (BAYN): XETR:BAYN Upon request from one of our members, we're taking a closer look at Bayer AG. We believe that we are still in an overarching Wave II. This wave finds its last true support at the 88.2% retracement level at €24.51. Falling significantly below this level would likely lead us to see a 100% retracement down to €8.48, which would be severe for a company like Bayer, considering its all-time high was at €144. Observing the chart on a 2-day basis, we note that the Wave 5 extension falls into the zone between 50% and 61.8%, which also includes the 88.2% level. This truly is the last turning point Bayer might have.
XETR:BAYNLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Airbnb (ABNB): Time to Short!I love Airbnb for vacations but this chart really isn't looking so good... It is the only stock we are currently looking to short. Airbnb has consistently shown lower prices since its inception, despite a recent period of higher highs since hitting a low of $82. We remain confident in the continued downward trend. The movements from point A to B and B to C align well with Fibonacci extension and retracement levels. The retracement for Wave (2) is particularly notable at the 61.8% level. We believe we are currently within Wave (3). We want to time the short entry based on anticipated Elliott wave counts. We anticipate a further decline in the short term, followed by a potential rise in the coming weeks. We plan to place our short position during this anticipated rise in Wave 2. We will continue to monitor the price action closely and provide a detailed update with exact entry and exit points once we are ready to place the short position.
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Approaching the Reversal ZoneIn April, we anticipated a pullback for JNJ, and since then, the stock has dropped approximately 7%, aligning with our expectations. The current trend suggests further downward movement, reinforcing our previous analysis. We are focusing on the support zone ranging from $134 to $116, with a potential lower bound at $109, the Corona-Low. The ongoing pullback could represent the completion of Wave (4) within this target zone, aligning with multiple levels. We are going to be monitoring this for signs of a reversal within this zone. This zone will be crucial to confirm the next possible upward movement.
NYSE:JNJLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Bitcoin Is Trading At The Support As Stocks PullsbackHey traders I this video I will take look at NVIDIA which I think it can be moving into a correction and can possibly be headed down for deeper prices. So if today major stocks indicies will have second red day in a row, then possibly next week there can be more risk-off. In such case I think its better to wait on any long ideas on cryptos (short-term), and wait on much better timing for potential long entires, which can be maybe after summer, or during elections when normal markets tend to be in bull run. Additionally, any rate cut later this year can be alos supportive for stocks and other assets. When I look at bitcoin, I think that 50k is very good potential support; if it gets there. Have a nice weekend. Grega
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
More drops to come; lowerr than 50K. Buy zone around 30K zomeNot going to say much but we all could be wrong or right .. correction isnt over and the sell confirmed for more drops and more correction. Feeling will drop back down to low 50K again; perhaps it can lower than that; i found the support around in the low 30K area.. so might expect the correction to finish in the 30K zone before skyrocket to the new ATH. The correction should be finish ill say around end of july into the beginning of august or mid-july and will bulls take off from there and should expect to hit 120K before november or into October. Im not financial advisor; just the correction isnt finish yet so get reedy for more drops. What are your thoughts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
Officially still in the bearmarketIt nuked down to 53K range but feeling its not over it ; it will still go below 57K. This is pretty mid-short sell. Do have a 50K feeling will hit even dip below 50K can happen Im keeping it short as possible cuz i don't see any sign of buyers and bullish quite yet until the correction is finish. Ill say the prediction won't be finish until we hit 50K even or somewhere around 40K area and i heard rumors that the bulls will get back until reach about 30k-35k Im not a financial advisor so please don't ask if we hit a good trade; if its a stay away then don't trade and use your own analysis instead. Safe trading yall
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
Is ETHBTC Pair Turning Bullish?ETHBTC pair can be turning bullish, as we see strong rebound after a completed corrective decline by Elliott wave theory. We talked about ETHBTC pair back on May 14th, where we mentioned and highlighted the completion of an (A)-(B)-(C) corrective setback with the wedge pattern within wave 5 of (C). As you can see today on July 05, ETHBTC pair bounced from projected 0.045 support area, which can be signal that it’s turning back to bullish mode, especially if breaks back above 0.061 region. Regarding dominance in the Crypto market, ETHBTC chart can be one of the reasons that ALTcoin dominance may kick in soon, so new ALTseason could be around the corner.
Long
by ew-forecast
2
USDNOK Is Looking For More Short-Term WeaknessUSDNOK is sideways for the last two years that looks like a larger triangle within uptrend. It's an ABCDE pattern where wave E can be in play as pair stops at the upper side of this contracting range. Ideally, market is coming down for a pullback within higher degree wave E, where pair can complete the sideways price pattern. So for now, seems like there is room for more weakness within a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) decline to the lower side of a range. Wave (B) looks to be a bearish triangle pattern, unless it's going to be more complex, but sooner or later it can send the price lower within wave (C) of E towards to 10.30/10.00 support area. One of the reasons why USDNOK could face more weakness is also bullish looking Crude oil, which can boost the Norwegian Krone.
Short
by ew-forecast
1
BITCOIN CRASH TO 54.7K MINIMUM MT. GOX DUMP!!!Hello as you can see we have 5 waves up and an abc correction. we are working on the C wave and i expect it to hit 54.7k because that is the 1.1 extension fib of wave a measured from wave b (be careful tho as wave C can go to 1.618 which would be 44k i dont see that happening this time tho as we still need to make a wave 5 on the super large time frame), as well as having a FVG that needs filled there, as well as being the base of the channel we are in. It is a triple confluence. If you look at RSI we have a bearish divergence as well. The two bottom indicators i am using are also showing to be in the middle of a wave right now. that would be the C wave on the large time frame. we will be making the 5th wave down on the lower time frame which on the lower time frame of that will be a 5 wave impulse move because we are in a downtrend. Also, Mt. Gox, an old exchange that went down like 12 years ago is starting to repay their creditors in July, which is now, so those people are sitting on like 14000% profit and are going to cash out and dump hard. it is a total of like 18 billion. This is a negative outlook but its just what the data show. when the data show bullish then i will be bullish but there is just so many things right at this moment ab to crash btc so just hold on tight and open a short. i have one open from 63.2k and a target of 54.7k. Lets see if it hits.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by member_berry
Nvidia - Massive rejection soon!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended after the +1.000% rally and ready for a correction. Trees simply do not grow to the sky. And neither do stocks, especially Nvidia. I know that a lot of people are calling price targets of $250 and beyond, but we still have to respect gravity and the nature of fear and greed. Nvidia is simply overextended a retesting a 6 year resistance trendline. I do expect a correction between -20% and -30%, but also -60% is definitely possible. Levels to watch: $120, $50 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
50
BTC - A Healthy Pullback or a Sign of More to Come?Hey fellow crypto enthusiasts! Let's dive into Bitcoin's recent price action and what we can expect in the coming months. The Correction Phase: Why It's Not All Doom and Gloom First off, don't panic about the current correction phase. After the halving, a correction was not just expected. It’s healthy! Think of it as Bitcoin catching its breath before the next big sprint. We're seeing an ABC correction pattern, which savvy traders will recognize as a typical and necessary, market movement. Timing the Market: When to Make Your Move So, when’s this correction likely to wrap up? Our crystal ball suggests somewhere between July and August/September. This is the perfect window to dollar-cost average (DCA) into your positions. By buying a fixed dollar amount of BTC at regular intervals, you can average out your entry price, reducing the impact of volatility. Long Positions: Entering long positions in the 50000-52245 range could be a smart move, considering the support levels and the bullish outlook post-summer. Key Levels to Watch: The Golden Zone Here’s where it gets interesting. The big kahuna level to keep an eye on is 50K. Not only is it a psychological level, but it’s also where several technical indicators converge. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the smaller wave sits at $52,245, while the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the entire 491 day bull run is at $51,690. This zone also hosts an old trading range, known as a bullish order block. Translation? This area is packed with historical significance and potential support. Fibonacci Levels: Fib 0.618 of the smaller wave is at $52,245. Fib 0.382 of the entire 491-day bull run is at $51,690. Ichimoku Cloud: Your Support Safety Net On the daily timeframe, the Ichimoku cloud’s edge (custom settings) aligns around the 50K mark, offering additional support. It's like having an extra safety net below a tightrope walker. Altcoins: The Unsung Heroes Don't forget about altcoins! Many have pulled back significantly, with some seeing 60-80% corrections. This is a golden opportunity to DCA into altcoins and position yourself for potential gains. Remember, during market corrections, altcoins often offer lucrative entry points for those looking to diversify. Wrapping Up: The Bigger Picture While the correction phase may seem daunting, it’s a natural part of the market cycle. The key levels around 50K-52K are not just numbers, they’re strategic entry points. With the support of the Ichimoku cloud there’s a lot to be optimistic about as we move towards the end of summer. What do you think? Are you positioning yourself for the end of the correction? Drop your thoughts and let’s discuss! With a clearer understanding of Bitcoin's correction phase and the key levels to watch, you're now better equipped to navigate the crypto waters. Happy trading!
CME:BTC1!Long
by SiDec
Gold Keeps Consolidating Within A Higher Degree CorrectionGold has turned lower in the last two months, which has been expected as we saw market in fifth wave of an extended wave 3 after breaking to new ATH. Well, what we see now is a corrective pause which can come to an end in the near future, but possibly at lower support levels as the current price action here above 2300 can be a triangle in the middle of a three wave downward correction. We see nice support at 2222-2250 area. But, don't miss the alternate count, where wave 4 can be even a running triangle if price turns up now and breaks 2370 level. Bullish confirmation is above 2390 region.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ew-forecast
BTCUSD: Time for a correctionOutlook for the remainder of the year. The ETF inflows have generally remained positive at new ATH levels, while volume remains low and price remains flat. This suggests considerable distribution from OTC sellers, namely longer-term holders, per HODL waves analysis. It's been 3 months since breaking ATH in March, with price unable to move higher. The consolidation at higher levels remains bullish until $60K is broken to the downside (foodgates moment), which would confirm the current range ($60K-70K) as longer-term distribution, rather than accumulation. First stop will likely be a re-test of the 50 Week MA around $50K after the floodgates for selling opens below $60K. With relatively low accumulation volume, I'm not expecting it to hold as support, but instead return to the 200 Week MA around $40K, likely after a re-test of previous support in order to confirm it as new resistance (around $60K). The 20 Week MA is currently around $63K, so below this level, there will already likely be an increase in selling pressure. The Weekly RSI is otherwise facing rejection from overbought levels >70, similar to late 2021 (minus the strong bearish divergence back then). The culmination of breaking the 20 WMA and confirming RSI rejection by returning to $60K, would be the catalyst for the break of support. As also noted (N.B.) the Mid Pi Cycle Top occurred in march, around $68K-$70K, with price unable to maintain the momentum above this rising MA multiplier, unlike in December 2020 at $21K.(1) The post-halving "Miner Capitulation" has also been signalled by Hash Ribbons indicator, not so dissimilar to summer 2020 that encouraged consolidation and a miner correction.(2) I'm not particularly expecting Path B to play out, unless there is a catalyst for a more full-blown capitulation, leading to a 65% haircut in price. Examples include ETF holders getting cold feet leading to panic as price goes below opening ETF prices , or otherwise some negative regulatory news. A -45% move down to $40K should otherwise be more then sufficient to build up momentum for a 2025 bull market reaching $100K+. Should price reach GETTEX:25K to $30K levels (path B), there could be a "delay" within the usual cycle, with higher parabolic prices nearer to $200K. After the 3x from 2017 to 2021 ATH, 2x seems reasonable in 2025 however ~$138K. (1) www.lookintobitcoin.com (2) capriole.com
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by dragononcrypto
#US30 Best selling opportunityPrice seems to be completing the fifth wave of an ABC bullish corrective move, after which it is likely to move lower to complete its third wave in a higher degree. The conjunction of the two bullish channels is an optimal price level to sell. For those who are more risk-averse, they could wait for a bearish breakout of the short-term bullish channel. If you’ve found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
BLACKBULL:US30
by mohemati