QQQ Bear Flag (Potential Correct Start)Classic trend reversal retracement
-Bear flag directly into one of the last imbalances (on 30m timeframe)
- Breakdown to 393 area very possible in the next month or two
- ~10% drop from current levels, would put QQQ squarely in correction territory
- Upside is that 393 area looks to be a very strong (and fresh) support
Correction
Silver May Resume Its UptrendSilver may resume its uptrend after recent corrective decline from technical point of view and by Elliott wave theory.
We have been talking a lot about bullish metals in the past months and they may easily stay in the uptrend, especially now when bonds across the globe are recovering away from the supports.
We have seen some slow down on silver recently, but we believe it's just a corrective setback within ongoing bullish trend, as we see an unfinished five-wave bullish cycle.
If we take a look at silver from Elliott wave perspective, we can see a nice three-wave A-B-C correction, which can belong to a higher degree wave 4, so soon be aware of a bullish resumption back to highs within 5 wave.
AU to Dec. 2023 Levels?!Here I have AUD/USD on the Daily Chart!
Since the Low in April, Price for AU has been on a Bullish Run!
I believe the Resistance Level it has been struggling with all year may be coming to BREAK soon!!
On the tail of LOWER than expected NFP numbers for USD last week AND word that the RBA may be needing to look to INCREASE INTEREST RATES .. We could see MUCH more bullishness from AU
SO much in fact that I think the Highs of Dec. 2023 may be in sights!
I am currently waiting for:
Price to fall Lower to a Minor Level of Support to enter a Buy Position
-OR-
Price to Break the Resistance Zone @ ( .6640 - .6612 ) and then to Retest Break for Buy Position
Next Leg Correction underwayRally was short and sweet. Got 0.50. Fibo. Meta cracked it. Was fading all day already after the morning pump; just three up days.
C legs typically extend farther and give a 1.62 extension, capitulation and panic prevail.
May will be Bearish, at least to start, imo. Need to watch this correction carefully to gauge whether it takes ABC form or a more sinister impulsive move.
Setup for a summer rally beyond.
Bears Beware!A correction is coming soon. Maybe started this week. How low will it go? Nobody knows.
So many Bearish Posts. Permabears predicting cataclysm. The End is Near!
Doomsayers who repeatedly forecast massive crashes will eventually be right, once every 15-20 years.
Almost always these guys are just plain wrong. Markets exist to print money. Money prints when prices rise.
Stonks mostly go UP. Every ATH is preceeded by... a prior ATH.
Markets climbs a wall of worry.
Sudden sharp pullbacks and price declines are always a shocker.
But they don't last very long. Few weeks, a few months. Then it goes UP again. Correction of Aug-Oct 2023 was just 3 months, now look at it.
Here is something to consider. Overlay is from April 2020 - Jan 2021.
IF this entire move for past five months has been a First Wave after the 2022 bear, THEN we got a lot more pain for bears coming. Fib extension 1.618 = 6515!
It is certainly possible to enjoy another 20% rally following a correction.
The 2022 bear shaved over 1300 pips off SPX. At current index price closed 5117, we are just 6.5% above the 2021 ATH! Only six percent... after all this bullishness!
Lotta folks worry, "But we are already up 20%!" Well, actually we are up 6% here. The other 14% was recovery of lost value.
I do not foresee another bear market following on the heels of 2022. We should get a sharp correction and then prices will rise, again, as always.
Watch this correction, note the form it takes for clues as to what is next.
Election years tend to be BULLISH. Incumbents promote policy to support financial markets. Uncertainty surrounding the election in October gives way to relief rally in November.
I Tried To Tell Y'all 58K Was In Play- What's Next For Bitcoin?Not to say I told you so, but, yeah, I did tell you all a while back when we broke previous all time highs that the 58K range for Bitcoin was still in play, and guess what happened? We hit it... Well, I didn't post that one on TV, so I may not have told you guys, lol, but it's on my other outlets.
Okay so now that is all out of the way, let's talk about what could possibly happen next. I do not think that just because we hit this level that we will have some kind of V-shaped recovery. Highly doubtful. As a matter of fact, I still believe that we will be heading even further south to the 50K-52K range as I stated in another previous technical analysis post.
Why do I think this? Well, that is where the largest amount of support is sitting. This pump went too high, too fast and is having to correct back down and retest the previous major zone of volume. I mean, it doesn't have to, but it's normal market movements.
Too many in the Bitcoin and crypto space are too short term focused. I know I have been at times, but that is why I am flashing the Daily chart at you is because on the bigger picture, we still have some retracing to do to build a solid market structure before we really go for moon shots. Not only that, the news of government FUD has really shaken up the Bitcoin ETF TradFi crowd and they have been dumping right and left. So downside is not finished by any means and I feel that 50K-52K is still in the cards.
Until next time my trading buddies, trade logically!
BTC - Roadmap to 82k 🗺Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📦 Post-halving , BTC has been hovering within a big range between $60,000 support and $70,000 resistance.
📈 For the bulls to take full control again , and test the $82,000 and upper bound of the red channel, a break above the $72,000 resistance is needed.
📉 In parallel, if the $60,000 support is broken downward, we expect a bearish movement towards the $52,000 demand zone.
Which scenario is more likely to happen first? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Microsoft (MSFT): A Potential Plunge After a Decade's RiseOn the Microsoft three-day chart NASDAQ:MSFT , we've observed that the initial cycle of Wave (5) & I peaked at $430, hitting the 61.8% extension level, and has since declined to $402. We believe that $430 will now act as a strong resistance level.
We anticipate a significant correction for Microsoft, potentially dropping to between $220 and $100. This forecast is based on the end of the first bullish cycle, following a decade of substantial increases in Microsoft's stock price. Such a correction is seen as necessary for sustainable long-term growth
The exact nature of the correction, whether it adopts a Flat or Zigzag pattern, remains to be determined. Flats are more common than Zigzags, hence they are considered more likely, but we are keeping an open mind as we monitor the chart's developments.
We will hold off on positioning ourselves immediately, opting instead to watch how the situation unfolds on the broader chart before identifying potential smaller-scale entry points.
ARKK Elliot Wave ABC CorrectionARKK started its rally in November 2023 and reached $54.52 in December 2023. Since this date, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, it may be making an ABC correction. ARKK, which made the A wave by falling to $ 44.63, then rallied to $52.06 with the B corrective wave.
As long as ARKK stays below $52.06, ARKK may be making wave C. At the end of this movement, it may fall between $40.35 and $42.59.
Bitcoin - Old Fibonacci level suggest $59k is in viewLet's talk about the elephant in the crypto village square: Bitcoin. Now that we're looking at a correction, it makes sense to talk about where that may end and - for those of you that successfully took some profits - when and where you may want to re-deploy those funds.
I am of the view that Fibonaci levels - particularly old ones - are extremely helpful for predicting turning points when it comes to BTC. Small quick pullbacks may not involve recognising significant Fibs and can occur randomly or involve pivot levels (not shown). (I rarely trade those because I have a F/T job and do not have time to trade daily and also I find that trading smaller insignificant levels can be really frustrating and result in missing large runs...) However, when pullbacks stretch into weeks (current situation), then significant Fibs start coming into play.
I'll explain below where the blue and white fibs depicted in this image come from, but the blue Fib depicted here at ~US$59,600 is the 48 Fib of the original run and was initially ignored as the price stormed through it, but is now working like a magnet for BTC price and my view is that the correction will not end until this Fib is properly recognised. A proper recognition of this Fib may involve a spike down over a few hours (possibly a day) but then a weekly (or daily) close on or very close to the Fib line.
These old Fibs have been influential in shaping the price history of BTC to date, as can be seen from the linked images below. The thick dotted blue lines are the extension Fibs from the first long run of BTC between 2009 and Nov 2013 (first link below). The thin dotted white lines are the 'extension' fibs drawn from the 2014 crash in price.
The blue fibs have been massively influential and have accurately predicted most peaks and troughs (second link below). I think it's at least LIKELY that Bitcoin will not find a way forward before it has planted itself squarely on this 48 Fib over the coming week(s). Happy trading!
GOLD Local Rebound! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in a super
Strong uptrend and now
We are seeing a long overdue
Correction but as the price
Is approaching a local
Horizontal support of 2320$
A local bullish rebound
Is to be expected
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
$GOLD -- XAU/USD --- Bearish Correction on the horizon???Today I'm breaking down one of my favorite assets to trade and that's TVC:GOLD or to some XAU/USD. I don't like to fight the bull, but this setup shows a nice trendline bounce for a continuation or we can see a nice correction move coming for $GOLD. Our algo usually gives decent signals and we look to the charts for our entry.
Trade safe my friends.
The Kiwi Is Getting Ready For A RecoveryThe Kiwi with ticker NZDUSD woke up last year with a strong reversal on daily chart after a completed larger, higher degree (A)-(B)-(C) correction in B/II, which can be signal for completed deep correction, especially after higher highs and higher swing lows formation up from November 2023 lows.
In fact, there was also some nice accelerating price action through December, which looks like an impulse into wave (1), so more upside can be seen in 2024, ideally after current lower degree A-B-C retracement within wave (2) that can be coming to an end with strong support around 0.59 - 0.58 area.
Well, if the Kiwi manages to recover back above channel resistance line and 0.6220 level, then we can easily confirm a bullish continuation.
Microsoft (MSFT): Climbing to New Heights or Ready for Reversal?For Microsoft, we've recently observed an uptick and, for visualisation, activated the 100% level on the two-day chart as a maximum target. A closer look on the two-hour chart suggests that we might be in the final wave, Wave 5. Since developing Waves ((iii)) and ((iv)), we've formed four more waves and are now approaching a new all-time high. We consider a maximum of $450 to be realistic, though further increases are possible. After such a substantial rise, we expect the target range to be between 38.6% and 54%, around $450. This area could be intriguing to monitor for a potential trend reversal. If such a reversal occurs around $450, we would look out for possible short positions. However, should we significantly surpass this level, which we currently don't anticipate, we would seek long positions. Depending on these developments, we'll adjust our strategy accordingly.
Swing fade: is euro overextended?Fundamentals & Sentiment
EUR:
Contrary to the direction of this trade idea, the Eurozone economy has been doing quite well for the last few months. However, is it time for a technical correction? Risk reversals suggest that.
NZD: Kiwi has been supported by good Building Permits from New Zealand and strong readings from Australia at the beginning of the session.
Technical & Other
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 4h
Medium-term: UP
Long-term: Up
Min target: DMA(200) + mirror level on D
Risk: 0.26%
Gold Correction Due - before this week market closePEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
Following the principles of #ElliotWaves, when waves 1 and 3 form without any extension, then wave 5 tends to make approximately the same magnitude in the same amount of duration.
Wave 1 - Magnitude - ~ $76+ in ~ 2 D and 17 hrs
Wave 5 - Magnitude also made ~ $76+ (Short of 60 cents) in ~ 2D 11 hrs as of this post.
In this scenario, when there was no extension in the impulse waves, the correction would be till 0.618 to .50 Fib Retracement Level 2226 - 2200 Range.
A new price structure on BTCUSD.The monthly candle has created a new price structure above the previous ath drawn in 2021. These structures are very important and are calculated on the closures, in this case monthly, even if one had also made one on the weekly towards the beginning of the month of March, was not as homogeneous as this one drawn the day before yesterday, because it was not present in some charts of other exchanges. These structures are very important, they can be used as support and resistance levels and outline trends. The latter are nothing more than a series of price structures either upward or downward, in this case upward, given that for the first time the monthly closes above 70k usd. A very strong and very useful signal, we have a very reliable level that can be used as resistance for the next movements. It should be noted that the trendline and the new bullish structure occurred at the same time, they are zones and not precise points, the first test of the previous historical high is concluded, once this short-term correction is over, we could see another test and establish whether the price has still have the strength to continue at least for the intermediate period.
The monthly on btcusd.The March Candle closes with approximately +16%, creating a price structure above the previous historical high drawn in 2021. A very strong signal regarding the long term, this favors the bulls in trying to snatch convenient prices until the short period will allow it by correcting on the most important supports. The last price structure that could act as support is in the 58k USD area, although between 63k and 61k USD there is another interesting area. What is striking is the fact that only in the January candle there was a correction, so looking at the fractal you notice similarities more with the bullish movement of 2016/17 than with the previous one 2020/21. Perhaps a new paradigm given that the main players in this market have changed.
META to $455Overview
META is approaching a possible landslide that may take the share price to around $455. An influx of insider liquidation paired with healthy market skepticism supports the possible correction.
Fundamentals
Overall the company appears healthy according to their 2023 Annual Report. The only filings that I found concerning was the abundance of 144s that indicate insider liquidation. As of late, insider liquidation has been heavily present amongst most of the Magnificent Seven companies (GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, and TSLA)
Technicals
A bear flag is forming after the rally momentum rounded out and is now beginning to develop a descending triangle. The oscillators don't support a breakdown at the current time so a possible bounce back to the triangle's resistance line around $505-510 is possible as the pattern continues to develop.