Correctionwave
Nvidia - Consolidation Before -50% Drop!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is preparing for the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Nvidia is still creating pretty clear market structure and price action and therefore there is no reason to change direction or opinion. Following the previous cycles, a correction of roughly -55% is likely and Nvidia's recent consolidation is a first strong sign of bearish weakness.
Levels to watch: $120. $60
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
B/C Correction Down To July Highs??? - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the 4Hr Chart!
Friday gave us a STRONG break through this Area that acted as Support getting Price to its High @ 1.32664 but soon after we see price melt!
I suspect we are looking at a Correction Wave where Price gave us a Lower Low (Point A) @ 1.31672 which Broke Structure, followed by a Lower High (Point B) @ 1.32271 Confirming Downtrend. Based on the Fib Extension Tool, we are given a Range Target of 1.30666 - 1.30287 around the High's of July!
Now with Friday's new Lower Low @ 1.31095, I would like to see Price make a Retracement to the once Support-Turned-Resistance Zone for some potential Selling opportunities!
If we take the Fib Retracement Tool from Friday's Low @ 1.31095 to Friday's High @ 1.31998, We see the Fib Entry Zone lands precisely in the Middle of our Resistance Zone!
*Fib Entry Zone -
*Golden Zone -
Indicators:
-DSR curving down & Price Trading Below
-RSI Below 50
-BBTrend showing Bulls losing strength
Nasdaq - Here we finally go!TVC:NDQ is finally rejecting the resistance and creating the anticipated bearish correction.
Let me just put it that way: The correction was 100% anticipated and you can definitely then trade accordingly. Just a couple of weeks ago the Nasdaq retested a resistance which has been pushing price lower for 14 years - a correction was very likely. So far the Nasdaq is dropping significantly but I don't think that the current correction will actually be over soon...
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Nvidia - The -60% correction is starting!NASDAQ:NVDA is showing us multiple confluences which will lead to a massive move lower.
Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. But on Nvidia we cannot be fearful yet - so far, the smaller timeframes are still bullish. Everything makes me believe though that we will see a significant move lower soon: Nvidia is retesting massive channel resistance, repeated the previous bullish cycles and is preparing for the next correction cycle!
Levels to watch: $120, $50
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Bearish Wedge + 61.8% Retracement - AJHere I have AUD/JPY on the 4Hr Chart!
Since Prices decline, we see Price after making its New Lower Low @ 90.116 and has made a steady Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio Zone being our Fib Entry Zone!
All along the way, creating Higher Highs and Lows forming a Bearish Wedge!
Price is unable to Close above 97.472 being the 61.8% level, so I suspect we will see price continue DOWN!
*Potential Sell Entries will come once price Breaks and Closes below the Rising Support of the Bearish Wedge!
B/C Correction for E/G Before Descent To .8400?!Here I have EUR/GBP on the 4Hr Chart!
Ever since EUR/GBP made its transition into a Downtrend from the High @ .86248 to Lower High @ .85928, Price has been strong on the decline eventually giving Break to the .8510 - .8500 Area.
This Correction Wave, based on the Fib Trend Ext Tool, has eyes on the Range Target of .84409 - 8405!
Before the Final Extension can happen, I suspect Price will need to make a Retracement to the Fib Entry Zone @ .84976 - .85133!
*Golden Zone @ .85032 - .85087
After which I will be looking to take Sell Opportunities to finish the Wave!
Indicators:
-Price Trading Below DSR
-Price Trading Below 200 EMA
-DSR + EMA leading to "Death Cross"
-RSI Below 50
-BBTrend Printing Red Bars
BTCUSD | CORRECTION HAS NOT FINISHED YETInstead of having simple ABC correction in 4th wave, Bitcoin is moving to complex one - WXY,
We have a Zig-Zag to 50% correction level for 3rd wave.
Probable future scenarios:
- one more Zig-Zag up to ~65k or even slightly more, and after it final Zig-Zag down to previous levels: ~52k-50k;
- final Zig-Zag from current levels down to the same levels ~52k-49k or slightly deeper to previous wave support levels ~45k-42k.
After that, Bitcoin will go to final 5th wave of bull cycle.
Hold your cash ready for one more deep dive.
Could EUR/GBP see .8500 and Below?! Here I have EUR/GBP on the 1Hr Chart!
We can see that following the 3rd Divergent High @ .86248, price makes a steep Decline breaking the Previous Higher Low @ .85757 and creating a LOWER LOW @ .85496 turning this once Uptrend into a Downtrend!
After the New Low is created, we see price makes a textbook Retracement back to the 61.8% Fibonacci Level @ .85783 which happens to test the previous Higher Low to then proceed back down to close for the week just above the New Low!
I believe we could be witnessing the Confirmation of an Elliot Correction Wave coming where based on the ABC method:
-Prices' LH correction marking our B Point indicates that based off our Fib Ext Tool, we could see price Decline to the Range Target of ( .8457 - .84282 )
-Price Breaking the A Point will be Confirmation of potential Selling Opportunities
*.8500 will be the next area we will see Price wrestle with once it breaks the Lower Low @ .85496
Indicators: -Bearish Reading-
- Price is working BELOW my DEMA
- Flattening of the 200 EMA
- RSI BELOW 50 after creation of LL
-BBTrend printing Red Bars
Nvidia - The tide is (finally) turning!NASDAQ:NVDA is about to create a bearish reversal which will lead to a -60% correction!
Charts just don't lie at all - instead fundamentals are always an illusion. Nvidia was retesting a major resistance trendline and is starting a significant bearish reversal. Nothing changed fundamentally but Nvidia is already down -25% over the past couple of days. This is just the beginning of another potential bear market, like we saw it back in 2018 and 2021...
Levels to watch: $55
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Beginning of the AJ Bull's END?!Here I have AUD/JPY on the Daily Chart!
Beginning in March of 2020 to what seems to be the new High @ 109.372 in July of 2024, we have seen the end of the 5th Wave of Elliot's Impulse Wave!
With Prices steep decline to the new LOWER LOW @ 99.209, knocking out the Low of June and Testing the Low of May, these are the conditions needed for what could potentially turn into a Correction Wave!!!
The Sellings have BEGUN!
-You can see that the RSI after this enormous drop in price Breaking Lows ( Structure) is now operating under the 50 mark & Oversold!
-The BB Trend is now printing Red Bars showing signs of Bears in the vicinity!
Where might Price go??
-If 99.209 is our True Lower Low we will be working with, I suspect price will make a STRONG retracement!
*Potential Retracement Levels*
( 103.091 - 103.691 ) - Golden Zone
( 104.291 - 105.490 ) - 50% / 38.2%
-Fundamentals-
*Uncertainty of BOJ decision mixed with the suspected COOLING of inflation on AUD may be just the catalyst we need to see this pull off!
AUD - CPI q/q & y/y - Tuesday, July 30th
JPY - BOJ Policy Rate - Tuesday, July 30th
S&P500 - Was this already the all time high?SP:SPX is still massively bullish on the smaller timeframes despite retesting strong resistance.
Sometimes trading can be soo simple but yet rewarding. You simply have to buy the S&P500 at support and sell your position at resistance. At the moment, the S&P500 is once again retesting a resistance trendline, which has been pushing price lower for more than 14 years and there is just an extraordinary high chance that we will again see a rejection. Don't say I did't warn you!
Levels to watch: $5.600, $4.800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
EURAUD I Sellers will step in soonWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
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GOLD - Extended Flat correction - possibility - shortPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
Gold has rallied to all-time highs this week, however, in the last 32 hours it has slumped by 90$ rising to the possibility of extended flat correction possibility.
in this scenario, wave C could reach 1.168 of A-B fib-extension. which is 2220 $.
Gold - Should we take profits now?OANDA:XAUUSD has been heading higher and creating a strong rally; time to take profits.
Gold is still clearly bullish, creating higher highs and higher lows on the higher timeframes. But we also always have to keep in mind, that metals and commodities in general are always following anticipated economic cycles. It is actually quite likely, that after the recent rally of +30% we will now see a retracement on Gold, maybe even back to the previous breakout level.
Levels to watch: $2.400, $2.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
USDCHF Corrected! DOWN to .8700 Range!!Here I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!
After USD/CHF finished its Impulse Wave May 1st with a High @ .92242 we see based on the Low or Point A @ .89879 followed by a LOWER HIGH or Point B @ .91587 ..
We are given all the Ingredients for a CORRECTION WAVE!!
Now based on the break of the NEW LOWER LOW @ .88809, using the Fibonacci Retracement Tool, we see price has made a perfect 61.8% Retracement!!!
On the initial Touch of 61.8% I took Sell Entries but we will certainly see this pair FALL!!!
Range Target is ( .87748 - .86842 )
UCAD Correction to 1.3300 Levels!!Here I have USDCAD on the Daily Chart!
Since its High in April @ 1.38461, we have made multiple attempts at breaking this Support Zone @ ( 1.3627 - 1.3615 )
Acting as a Roof, we have a Falling Resistance where Price tested a couple times then brought False Breaks the past 2 weeks with Price dipping down to this Support!!
Based off the High of April and the Failed Attempt at a Higher High @ 1.37434, we are potentially looking at a Correction Wave!!
Now, for this idea to play out, we need price to make a VALID Break Down below this Support Zone! To then find Lower Support making a LOWER LOW confirming price to continue DOWN!!
Upon which we should see price come up to the ( 1.3627 - 1.3615 ) Support Zone to test as RESISTANCE!! Which then will give us our Selling Opportunities!
Based on the Fib-Ext Tool, we could see price Plummet to the ( 1.33278 - 1.32295 ) Range Target!
UCHF on a Correction Wave!!Here I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!!
Now given its remarkable rise to its current HIGH @ .92242, followed by the strong drop to the LOW @ .9005 ..
This week we've seen Price make a Fibonacci Retracement back to the Golden Zone meaning price is CORRECTING AFTER THE IMPULSE ELLIOT WAVE!!
Now with Price working past our LOW, we could see price drop as low as the ( .87447 - .86612 ) Range!!
Last Leg To The Finish Line - UCHFHere I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!
Now we've been following USD/CHF since it created its NEW LOW back in Dec. '23.
This LOW I believe sparked the beginning of an Elliot Wave and currently we are looking at what seems to be a possible LAST LEG of this Impulse Move!
Price has currently created a HIGHER HIGH @ .90721, so we will be looking for Price to either:
1) Finish its BULLISH run to the Fib-Ext Ranged Target @ ( .91572 - .93426 )
-OR-
2) Look to make another Retracement to the ( .88726 - .88418 ) B/C Zone for another Potential Entry to surf the Wave the rest of the Way!
*RSI is showing we are currently Over-Bought, so this leads me to believe we could see price descend to our Zone.
Fundamentally-
-The BIG contributor to this scenario is with the SNB being the FIRST this year to cut their Interest Rates making the CHF look less attractive to investors
&
The FED holding rates gives the USD a Leg UP!
*Forecasters for Next Weeks News (Apr. 1 - Apr. 5) are leaning towards Bullish Outcomes so that could help feed the Bullish Mindset of traders for USD to start the new month off but ANYTHING can happen so BE MINDFUL OF NEWS!!
Correction Wave Incoming! - GUHere I have GBP/USD on the Daily Chart!
After our New High since August 2023 @ 1.28938 , we've seen Price decline quite drastically!
In fact, we were given a NEW LOWER LOW on Tuesday @ 1.24052!
Now with this Low having been created after our Lower High @ 1.2708 (Point B), this Price Action breaking our previous Low @ 1.25394 CONFIRMS my prediction that we could be looking at a Correction Wave!!
-Will our Support Zone turn RESISTANCE?!?
I will be looking for Price to make a Retracement to our Fibonacci Levels in our Support Zone for a SELL ENTRY @ ( 1.25241 - 1.25394 )
Range Target @ ( 1.21346 - 1.19992 )
SL @ 1.25932
*Levels Subject To Change*
Fundamentally for the remainder of the week,
GBP - Retail Sales (Fri)
USD - Unemployment Claims/Philly Manufacturing Index/Existing Home Sales (Thur)
*Next Week we will be getting PMI numbers so WATCH FOR NEWS!!
BULLISH TRI BREAK to Finish ABC Move for +2500 PIPS?! - UJHere I have USDJPY on the Weekly Chart!
Price has been meeting all the criteria since its LOWEST LOW recorded @ 75.565 in Oct. 2011 to have then started what looks to be a Correction Wave (ABC).
*This Low also seems to have been the completion of the 5th Wave of the Impulse Wave since UJ hit markets in Jan. 1971!!
On the chart you will see that we have continued to make HIGHER HIGHS & LOWS since our Low of 2011 and price after making its HIGHS, finding support at the Target Fib'd Retracement Levels!
This month of April has been a remarkable month for USD in the UJ pair:
-April has been nothing but overall BULLISH for UJ
-The past 2 weeks has not only given us a Break up out of the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) that has contained our Highs since Oct. '22 but has CONTINUED to reach even HIGHER giving us a BULLISH BREAK of the BULLISH TRIANGLE that price has formed with our Resistance Zone and Rising Support created by our LOWS in Jan. of 2023 & 2024!
Fundamentally what really pushes this move is the fact that the USD is now looking to keep rates still "Higher For Longer" with potentially only 2 Rate Cuts this year!! This can really feed favorability from investors towards the USD!
What does this all mean??
Firstly, we want to see if this CURRENT HIGH price is moving on is VALID!!
*I would like to see Price retrace to test these HIGHS in the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) to see if this level changes to SUPPORT!!
-If so, we will be looking to be BUYERS!!
Potential Range Target - ( 178.097 - 196.821 )