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Correctivestructure

Higher Targets On GoldI am waiting for an entry to confirm the long for my target to 1590. As things stand now, price is trading below the resistance of the corrective structure. It is possible that there will be a 5th wave to the downside before the break to the upside. Should the break of the structure occur now, I will trade the long to 1590. Should the price retrace for the 5th wave first, I will begin scaling into a position at the break of the low of wave 3 Happy trading! Linton White JP Markets South Africa
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Linton_White
1
ORBEX: EURCHF - End of Correction Hints to Further DeclinesIt looks like the corrective subminute wave c of minuette wave (ii) might have ended at 1.09425. As part of minute wave 3 of minor wave 3 we can now expect prices to move lower short, medium and longer-term with short-term declines reaching minuette wave (iii) near 1.07836. The current correction is likely to end as a zig-zag pattern a,b,c with subminute wave c potentially ending at the 100% FE at 1.09425 or slightly above. In case prices move above 1.10 we should still be looking at this turning lower. But a failed rejection would add uncertainty and potentially an invalidation of the current structure. The current structure suggests that once this correction is done with, prices could continue lower to complete the fifth minuette wave at 1.07550, where minute wave three would also complete its run. We could look for short-term sells and then a pullback to complete minuette wave (iv) near (i) low . Invalid above 1.1018 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
Short
by Orbex
US Equities Double-Double Top: Correction ImminentSimple chart, two double tops in July, September. Index repeatedly rejected from 3020 level. Divergence in other indices- Dow, NQ, RUT all below their ATHs. We got a right shoulder forming from Apr > Jul > Sep. May was an ABC, August a meat-grinding see-saw; IMO October will be a vertical drop to double bottom. I do expect ONE more rally attempt before throwover, these waves seem to proc in 3's, look back at the waves in May and July, see there were 3 tiny micropeaks on each top, each micropeak was a bit smaller than the previous. At time of this writing futures are modestly bullish and point to a higher open from Friday's mini-panic selloff. This is to be expected and represents an opportunity to close longs and add to shorts. Multiple Bearish signals in candlesticks and technical rejection breakdown point lower. In May the top lasted from ~first peak April 23 to 3 May, and produced three top-off microrallies on 23rd, 30 and 3 May. This formed a left shoulder, first ATH and was followed by the A-B-C textbook correction. in July we see the exact pattern reproduced from 12 - 30 July; a second, higher ATH, a taller peak, again with three micropeaks on the plateau, followed by Bloody August meatgrind. Apr/May triple peak top: ~12 days; July: ~18 days; a little taller and it lasted a bit longer to form the Head, the most Bullish part of the formation. The August correction from July Head peak was a deep grind, rather than a vertical plummet, and lasted a full month. It was a rough ride for Bulls and Bears alike, we all took a beating getting whipsawed. In a previous idea I observed it could have broken either way, finally the Bulls took charge and broke it up. September has produced the Right Shoulder peak beginning on 11th with a 12 Sep microtop at 3020 and on 9-19, a second rally attempt attaining the same price on SP500, but lower prices on Dow 30, RUT, NQ and divergence in Transports. The brief love affair flirting with small caps seems to have ended, as IWM sank precipitously in late session. First the pumptards were taking funds out of FAANGs to pump up RUT, but now they're just taking funds out. Expect a third and final micropump to a slightly lower peak on 9/20 and/or 9/24; The bottom might be expected to fall out sooner than it did on the left shoulder, as right sides of H&S have lower volume, fewer buyers, less bull power and briefer duration. Right shoulders tend to be more pointy and spike down hard when the buyers fail to pump up the prices. No new money is coming in now, only algos are moving funds and rotating them through sectors to churn profits on nickel and dime spreads. This will be a 'bottomless drop' IMO. This final topping wave should last between 9-13 days; of which 23 Sep is session day 10. The wave completion Bear confirmation signal will be rejection from the third micropeak rally attempt. Expect an initial selloff to neckline followed by a retracement rally to provoke a principal Bearish reaction. Cycle evolution ~3-5 weeks. A double bottom to or below Dec lows would be a strong buy signal for the next and possible final primary Fifth wave to ultimate ATH.
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
12
S&P500: the market took the alternate route.Last week I presented two options " The first is that the S&P500 has completed classic symmetrical triangle. It is a continuation pattern, meaning that the move going into the triangle will continue. In this case it was the move from 3029 DOWN to 2822 that was the initiation move. Assuming SPX2939 was the top of the b-wave, then simple symmetry targets: 2939 - (3029-2822) = 2732. Applying triangle "rules", then depending on where exactly price will move below the lower trendline of the triangle -say at 2829- then we're looking for 2622. So we have a SPX2732-2622 target zone, which we can refine once more price data becomes available. The other options the market still has at this moment is to complete a diagonal pattern (labeled as "alt: 3", alt: 4"). A simple 5=1 then targets SPX2957. This would best count as what is called an ending diagonal in Elliott wave terms as the sub-waves count best as 3s and not 5s. A break and close below SPX2890 will take IMHO this option off the table. Note how price so far pretty much bottomed right there today... keeping us guessing a bit longer... ;-) " While the 1st option looked best, also because the QQQ's had a nice triangle pattern forming (see here ) up to last Wednesday, on Thursday the markets threw the proverbial curve-ball as it often does and thus kept us guessing longer and yet again. The price pattern in the current rally still looks and counts best as that of a diagonal, albeit it has already (far) exceeded the ideal price target of SPX2957 I was looking for in that case. BUT, with today's price action we're right back at it as price reached the 78.60% retrace of the prior decline in early August ;-) So what does all this mean? 1) the recent price action continues to morph into other options as the market provides us with its twists and turns. This constant morphing and adjustment of Elliott wave counts keeps me cautiously bullish as price is moving higher, but normally Bull runs are more straight forward and require less re-adjustments as impulse move much more predicable than corrective structures. 2) There's a considerable amount of upside gaps left below current prices, which may need to get filled first. 3) price is currently sitting right at support, which must be respected until broken. 4) not shown here, but the 50d SMA is currently sitting at SPX2948 and price will have to close below it to change trends from up to down. So as the markets continue to pull all sorts of confusing stunts I am therefore still viewing this as part of a very complex b-wave. Currently, I have no clear immediate downside set up in place, and with price above its rising 20d, 50d and 200d SMA I am therefore cautiously Bullish. IF you wonder if the rally to SPX2800-4200 has started, I must admit I have no high probability count for that yet. Until then, being cautious is probably the best approach for now. Watch the 50d SMA for further clues.
SP:SPX
by intelligent_investing
4
Where is BTC (Bitcoin) Headed?I would like to share with you a comprehensive analysis of where we are at with bitcoin. An explanation of why there is so much confusion, why nothing seems positive and where we could possibly be headed. This is something I have shared with Purple Crypto Premium members. I have here for you 4 charts drilling down from 1D to the 4H chart. It is clear we are in a corrective wave formation and have been for a while now. The 200 EMA has been nearing the 314 EMA on the 6H chart. It has crossed over on the 4H chart, and it looks like it is starting to turn down on the 12H chart. Point to note though is that on the 4H chart, it does look like it is starting to cross back over. What the? Why the confusion? Because we are at the deciding point about the future of BTC. We are smack bang in the middle of a flat wave formation (which you can see clearly on the 6H chart) after hitting a double top (visible on the 1D) chart. So are we going up or down? Lol... Here is my 'BTC ends its bull run' analysis from August 10: I have read several analyses of BTC's "Parabolic Growth" theory (which btw, I think is absolutely rubbish). Here's my take on it: Do I want BTC to downtrend - NO. Who does? Oh yes...the whales. Do we have to prepared for it. YES. What do we do if BTC downtrends? Use what I refer to as "double trade profit points" to benefit from it (I absolutely love these). There is a hidden message in this chart...read carefully: And here is a scenario for where BTC could be headed should it turn into a significant downtrend: I would love for it to turn up as I am sure many of us would. However, right at this moment, anyone be crazy to make a prediction. There is simply no way to know and it is simply a matter of wait and see what happens. I would love for you to share your ideas. Please comment below and hit like if you'd like to support my work. ______ Follow me on Purple Crypto Telegram: t.me
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by PurpleCrypto
S&P500 complex enough for you?!My last update I ended with " Lastly, note that I label the larger waves as i/a, 2/b etc, because we can never know before hand if a move -even if 5 waves- in either direction is the start of a new impulse (i,ii, etc) or part of a correction (a,b,c) where wave a and c are also 5 waves... So to prevent hubris, always label them as both initially until the market eventually tells you which it is. Yes even c-waves can be made up of three waves, and are not always and necessarily comprised of five waves! " Well, we indeed only got three waves down, thus that was corrective: anticipate, monitor, adjust if necessary. With today's rally, which is still also and only three waves up off last Friday;s low, and those three waves down last week, the best pattern that fits the current price action right now is a triangle (a,b,c,d,e) with wave-e now underway. Triangles are one of the hardest patterns to forecast and foresee (nobody knew with all certainty early August this pattern would transpire, and how could one?!). Today's high could already be enough for wave-e (the final wave), but we can set a target zone of SPX 2920-2935 right into the upper trendline depending a bit on how strict one draws it. Above that -and especially above SPX2945- and something else is going on. Note that the previous two monster gap ups at open were filled and I expect the same to happen in the not too distant future. Trade safe!
SP:SPX
by intelligent_investing
10
S&P500 getting more complex by the dayThe S&P500 (and all other major US indices) experienced some (nice?!) whipsaws last week: Neither the bulls nor bears won. Whatever the future may exactly hold, the recent price action is very confusing and still, believe it or not, range bound. I've seen more ways to Elliott wave count the price action over the last two weeks, which in the end IMHO means it is (part of) a corrective structure because everybody can count an impulse down, than one can throw sticks at and at some point one will stick (pun intended). Question is if the correction is already over (red alt: ii) or still on going (green b) Looking at all the available information, my read is that we will continue to have a bullish bias over the next few days, due to the triple 90% up day last Friday for both A/D % and Up/Down Volume %. . This is most likely a strong enough reading to keep markets afloat into the 2950-3000 resistance area, thereby continuing to follow the average pre-election year pattern the market has followed all year long so far. IF price can get above resistance, with a first warning above SPX2965 then the Bulls can push price into the 3100-3200 levels and higher, but this is not my preferred outcome right now. So, while with help of futures' driven monster gap ups the markets are staying afloat, there is no clear resolution yet as to which path the markets are ultimately on. Please remember that IF the Bull train to SPX3900+ has started there's still >800p of upside potential left when this option is confirmed. Current upside potential is maybe therefore 1000p and for those who don't day-trade every blip, it would not be unwise to wait for more certainty. But that's just me. For now the small floor is at SPX2913. Below it opens up SPX2900+/-10p. Trade safe!
SP:SPX
by intelligent_investing
3