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Correctivestructure

MATIC/USDT on the rise again? Odd.MATIC/USDT has turned up again in the last few hours (while I had the most beautiful, peaceful sleep after 3 days of international client meetings which entailed waking up in the wee hours to provide trade signals on my premium telegram channel - a 53% ROI in the last MATIC run). Based on the previous run which ended somewhat disappointingly (yes, I wasn't happy with 53%), there is a slight flat-lining to the trend. If it continues in this manner, I envisage an even more disappointing third run up. It is currently too soon to tell if this early rise is going to be another wave or a devious correction. Stay tuned for updates. On another note, I was delighted to find on my return that I have provided inspiration to some long-time posters who are now using a replica of my chart layout. I'm glad people are noticing me - it's a sign that I am doing something right. Although, I do hope they realise that my charts are only skimming the surface of the very deep technical analysis I conduct. ;)))))
M
by PurpleCrypto
Breaking down Bitcoin's correction & my tradesRight now is undoubtedly a time when Bitcoin enthusiasts & investors are glued to what the price is doing. I see all kinds of analysis, predictions (different from analysis), fund managers tweeting horrible looking technical analysis with a MACD and a few unconfirmed trend lines, drive by media reports from their “experts” and so on. To be honest, we are at a point as of this writing that has neither invalidated nor confirmed any kind of directional bias. As I’ve mentioned on twitter, I am not in any trades currently, and for a reason. The question for me then becomes, what scenarios am I looking at? where are my trades going to take place looking forward? what validates what? To do that, I first need to get a handle on what has happened, & what validates a trade for me. Corrective So far the only confirmation of any kind of correction being over is the 3-3-5 structure that ended at 9049. The yellow box is currently unknown. That corrective structure corrected the final leg (5th) of our rally by hitting a common Fibonacci retrace area (first image below). Looking at the overall rally (second image), we haven’t even come close to correcting any of the common retrace points. At minimum I want to see the .382 fib level hit. More commonly would be the .618, that being said the market doesn’t HAVE to do anything. Taking this overall picture, I now look at what has happened in our unknown area in the yellow box above. Coming out of the final 5 leg drive and painting a swing low we see a bullish OBV divergence (first image below). Taking it down to a lower time frame to study the rally up, we see the same div but no real significant spike in cumulative volume (second image). This tells me the rally was correcting oversold conditions & not a true impulsive structure that identifies the bottom of our correction. Taking this information I now want to look at the possibilities of what this is. Seeing a potential 5 impulse structure upwards with weak volume leaves a couple scenarios. At the end of this I will get into my trades and how I play each scenario. Scenarios Scenario 1: This structure is not impulsive looking at this time frame & actually a 3 drive with some long wickage throwing off the visuals of the structure. Really the structure is better viewed on the hourly and every fib level hit perfectly for a 5 impulse structure, but I omitted that for an overall scenario analysis. Looking at the fib retrace point to identify this possibility, I see it hit the .5 fib mark but fell short of a common .618 correction. If this scenario is true, then we should see a break of the low at any time leading to a violent drop to the 1.23 level at 8402 which is the maximum of a 3-3-5. However, this scenario now doesn’t make sense, remember we made 2 sets of ABC corrective moves to begin the correction, corrective patterns that start with a 3-3 end with a 5 unless it is a triangle. If the drop from 13222 to 9049 was wave 1, and this rally from the low was a corrective 2, then this is wave 3 and its minimum end point in a falling 3 is the 1.23 fib extension of 1. That would take us to minimum 6989 invalidating the maximum of 8402 in the 3-3-5. Again, markets don’t have to do anything, but technical analysis helps with deductive reasoning. Scenario 2: Since the above scenario doesn’t make much sense, we look at what the targets would be if the 5 impulse structure coming out of the low was an A drive. This correction currently is a B, and our targets are derived from the AB for the C. If this scenario is true, then we can confirm the larger corrective pattern at the end of C. I’ll get into what that is at the end of this scenario. The A wave commonly hits the .5 fib level of the prior trend, as I noted above, it did. Corrective wave B (our current structure) should be attempting to find a bottom. It has been hovering around the .764 & .854 fib level, these are common points. However in a flat ABC this can be up to 100%. There I have my invalidation point which also confirms funky scenario 1 by breaking the low. Taking this into account, we would make a five impulse structure up to either the .618 (minimum), the 1, and lastly the 1.23 fib level. Invalidation would be at the 1.618 in pink which confirms the bottom of the prior structure (we will get into that in scenario 3). Since the deep retrace level of this B (if we count the wick) then this looks more likely to hit the minimum .618 or 1 fib level. Scenario 2 is actually a big scenario since we are actually confirming a larger corrective pattern called a double combination. We confirmed the larger ABC talked about in the beginning, this corrective ABC we are forming would be the X of a WXY and the first correction is labeled as W. To confirm it as an X in a double corrective combination we need to see a swing high printed on the Daily of at least the .5 fib or any of the yellow fib lines below. Now I begin to see some collusion in this analysis, it so happens that the 1 fib of the C is actually at the .5 minimum of the W move. If this is the case, then at that confirmed swing high of the ABC, we take the fib extension and target 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W to find our bottom. To speculate on where the bottom would be in this scenario, I have placed the end of X (speculation until a confirmed swing high) at that .5 of the yellow fib. We now can see some potential targets for the bottom that can be refined as the correction happens to a more exact point. Scenario 3: This scenario is bullish overall and that confirmed 3-3-5 ABC mentioned at the beginning was the bottom. Likelihood of this doesn’t seem high as we have issues with volume and overall structure but let’s look from an analysis point of view and identify the confirmation. Going back to the pink line I mentioned in the third paragraph of the last scenario, the pink 1.618 in the image below identifies this rally as a 3rd impulse considering we made a sub 5 in the potential A coming out of the bottom. It’s pretty simple to identify when it happens: If the daily continues upward without making a confirmed swing high to reach that target, then we have a confirmed bottom and the corrective A that I discussed in scenario two becomes a impulse 1. Conclusion & Trade Strategy So yes I get it, using Elliot Wave theory leaves open a lot of possibilities. I applied this as a means to make sense of the market, I still use Ichimoku, the ALPHA indicators and volume analysis when basing my trades, this correction requires additional detail which is what I have done. Also, the fib extensions in scenario 2 & 3 could adjust slightly if we break 9111, this is assuming that is the bottom in scenario 2 & 3 since there is not much wiggle room till invalidation from that low. On to my strategy… If scenario 1 confirms by breaking the low, then I open a market short on the break with a stop at 11120. At this point I feel something is wrong with the overall market & not operating normally. I am ok with a market order as a hedge there; Take profit and management will be done after. However, after doing this analysis I find this unlikely because of the invalidation that is detailed in that scenario. Either way, perhaps I have made a mistake somewhere along the line, if it takes place I’ll be prepared. If scenario 2 (I find this most likely) takes place, as a day trader I will long the first pull back of the rally, I use a number of technical confirmations to identify such and I will update this idea with those as they play. Scenario 2 has a 5 impulse structure in play like the first move from 9049 to 11120. So my long will be placed at the end of the corrective wave 2, with a stop at the current swing low (impulse 1). Take profit will be left open but as the .618 fib level is crossed I will manage the trade by placing a trailing stop with a tentative quantity of double the average true range indicators reading. At this point, when we get a swing high on the daily confirming the X wave of the larger double corrective pattern I will open a short to ride the rest of this correction to the take profit points I will update once that confirms. If scenario 3 takes place then I will be good and in a nice long, I don’t find this scenario likely yet. As possibility, this is why I am not placing a take profit in scenario 2 and rather using a trailing stop. Either way I am protected if I set my trailing stop right in scenario 2. Thats all for now, I will update this as it plays. I trade off of confirmation and currently we have none. The above details the possible scenarios and hopefully gives you insight into the way I do analysis and trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nick_Core
46
Large Correction For More UpsideUSDZAR is currently forming a larger correction that I initially anticipated. This means that the correction that I had looked at before as being a 3 wave correction, was actually only wave 1 of the larger correction. Looking at the current setup, I expect price to break the low of wave one, market with the red line, before there is a reversal to the upside. I will be looking to enter the long when a reversal confirms but may look for smaller trades to the downside in the interim as well. Happy trading! Linton White JP Markets South Africa
by Linton_White
USDCHF long, wave 4.I believe we are forming an Elliot wave and will be looking for buys on USDCHF at around 0.9700. I will be placing an order and expecting a snipe trade straight into profit. If I was to be more conservative I would wait for a bullish candle on 4H. My analysis predicts we will have a corrective wave from 0.9700 to my highlighted zone between 0.5 and 0.618 fib retracements. Trade will look something like this: USDCHF BUY LIMIT @ 0.9700 SL @ 0.9640 (60) TP1 @ 0.9860 (160) TP2 @ 0.9900 (200)
Long
by andrewlickley
THIS IS A REALLY NICE SETUP!Iv'e been waiting for this setup to confirm for a while now and have just entered the long position. Looking at the structure indicated in blue, we can see the initial impulse wave on the left of the chart, indicated by the first blue arrow. Then we can see a corrective structure which is in wave 3 to the downside at the moment. I have entered the long based on the break of the low of wave 1 as this is a good indication that we could see a reversal soon. I am looking to trade wave 4 to the top of the structure and will then wait for confirmation of a break to the upside or alternatively a reversal for wave 5 down first. Happy trading! Linton White JP Markets Pretoria South Africa
Long
by Linton_White
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis 09 JUN 19EurUsd trading under complex corrective pattern for last couple quaters. As per medium term structure also giving high probability to current complex pattern continue for few months. In short term prospective, last week we got some strong momentum upside. This momentum will continue upto 1.1450 level, before that once again price fell to 1.1215 to 1.1200 support zone. As per my point of views during the FED meeting on this month we can expect this level to enter Long. My Entry Levels for coming weeks: Side : Long Buy @ 1.1215 -- StopLoss @ 1.1125 -- Take Profit @ 1.1450
Long
by tidaltrader
EW Analysis: Ripple Doesn’t Show Any Bullish Signs, Yet!Hello everybody! Today we will talk about Ripple (XRPUSD)! As many cryptocurrencies, even Ripple made a strong five-wave rally in 2017, but in EW theory, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows! Well, seems like Ripple is trading now in that big and deep (A)-(B)-(C) correction for 2018 and probably even for 2019, ideally back to around previous wave (4), which is the most common support for a correction of a higher degree! And as you can see, there's still room for more weakness towards 0.20 - 0.13 support area, so current price action and long+sideways wave structure should be as part of a corrective wave (B), which we see it as a bearish triangle pattern! What we want to say is that despite bullish turn on many major cryptocurrencies, we still think that the bottom is not in place yet, especially because of that Ripple logarithmic scale chart, which has the same wave structure as it had Bitcoin in November last year! However, we believe that when Bitcoin turns down into a bigger correction, this is when Ripple may drop into a new 2-year low! That being said, we are currently observing a big bearish triangle in wave (B) that can take some time, ideally till the end of the 2019. And, once it fully completes, this is when it may send the price towards 0.20 – 0.13 support area for a wave (C) to complete that big three-wave corrective decline from all-time highs. Later then we can expect a strong bounce a bullish reversal! Be humble and trade smart! Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by ew-forecast
3
NIFTY50 WAVE ANALYSIS 10 JUN 19Hello Traders, Over all around world Equity markets are Gained some percentage in 2019, Nifty also gained nearly 15% from low of this year. But we looking in the medium term pattern Nifty in ABC corrective pattern. This ABC corrective pattern reaches its saturation point as per my point of view. I am looking for 12230 to 12250 level act as strong resistance and this to again 10000 level on second half of this year. My Entery Point On Coming Months: SIDE : SHORT Sell @ 12230 -- SL @ 13000 -- TP1 @ 10800 -- TP 2 @ 10000
NSE:NIFTYShort
by tidaltrader