Correctivestructure
updated view on UsdCadlast week I posted on that usdcad is in a corrective move, and is currently making a final push to the blue box. However, this week we got another push down into the corrective structure, this shows that the correction is not yet over. assuming my count is correct we will be coming for a Z leg in the minor corrective structure before going northward for a Z on the larger degree.
Bullish Counta solid daily close above the trend-line would suggest a valid break out and would suggest wave (3) rally could be under way
note
alternative count in grey
EW Analysis: EURAUD In The Expanded Flat CorrectionHello traders!
We want to share with you a pretty clear bearish pattern on EURAUD.
Looking at the daily chart, we have seen a huge spike up to 1.6550 level at the beginning of 2019, which we think was the top of wave 5/C, especially due to the decline that followed later and which can be already as part of a bearish reversal!
Looking at the 4-hour chart, after that big fall from highs, EURAUD was more or less sideways which more and more looks like a correction within downtrend. That said, we believe that EURAUD can be trading in a big expanded flat correction since we have seen a three-wave rally into a wave A) and then a complex corrective decline into a new low for wave B). So, current recovery must be as part of wave C), which should be made by five waves that can be either an impulse or maybe even slow overlapped wave structure within an ending diagonal (wedge pattern).
However, we think that EURAUD is turning back above previous wave A swing high towards ideal 50%-61,8% Fibonacci retracement and 1.6150-1.6250 resistance area and this is where we expect bears to show up again! In case if goes higher or more complex, we remain bearish as long as it's trading beneath 1.6550 invalidation level!
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
DECISION TIME FOR BTC? IS THIS WAVE CORRECTIVE OR IMPULSIVE?It all comes down to this correction here. How deep we go will be able to tell us if we will find new lows once more.
If we Correct no lower than a 0.382 of "3rd" wave, and particularly hang around the 0.236 before moving higher, then IMO this is without a doubt an impulse and we have likely seen the bottom.
IF we break lower and find our continuation of trend lower, at a 0.382 or 0.5 retrace of this entire trend, this will confirm this pattern as entirely corrective.
The grey area in in between these two 0.382 retraces as they are entirely similar, so how will we be able to tell that its corrective and not an impulsive 4th wave? The rule of alternation. If we have a zigzag correction here before heading up to our next upper targets, this will also be a confirmation of a corrective wave structure. And soon enough, we will find ourselves with new lows.
LOOKING FOR THE DOWNSIDE BREAKThis is what I like to call a textbook setup. We can see the initial impulse on the left and then a corrective structure which has completed 4 waves and I am now waiting for confirmation of the second impulse to the downside. It is possible that there will be a 5th wave to the top of the corrective structure first but ultimately everything is pointing to the short.
EW Analysis: BTCUSD Remains Bullish - Intraday UpdateHello traders! Let's talk about Bitcoin.
Everyone is already turning bearish, but no one noticed a potential running triangle pattern.
Well, Bitcoin is trading sideways for the last couple of days, which more and more looks like a correction in wave (iv) that can be either a running triangle pattern or maybe even a deeper three-wave setback down to 4650 support area in case if we see another decline.
Currently, we can see a nice recovery away from that lower red line, so there's a good chance for a bullish continuation back to highs for wave (v) towards 5500 - 5700 or maybe even higher into 6000 area, especially if we consider strong supports across the Crypto market.
Technically speaking, if BTC breaks back above 5200 region, then it may start accelerating even higher towards projected targets, but if we see another drop, then keep an eye on next 4650 support area. Invalidation level is still far away at 4000 level!
However, both counts are bullish, so sooner or later we should see higher prices.
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
ShortGBPUSD is forming an expanding triangle in the daily chart. So this structure tells us that
this currency pair is in a down trend right now. I won't recommend anyone to short this currency because taking a short position right now would be a high risk, instead we should wait for the price to form a corrective structure or a pullback then sell this currency pair.
EW ANALYSIS: BTCUSD May See A Deeper CorrectionHello traders! Today we will talk about Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is trading bullish, but before a bullish continuation, we may see a deeper three-wave (a)-(b)-(c) correction back to 78,6% Fibo. retracement and 3500 level.
Due to slow price action in the last couple of weeks, Bitcoin looks more and more corrective in wave (b) that can send price back to 61.8% - 78,6% Fibonacci retracement and 3500 support area for wave (c). But, in case if we see an earlier continuation higher above 4200 region, then we may consider that correction in wave "ii" has already been completed and that a wave 3 should already be in play.
So, despite that intraday jump higher on BTCUSD, we should still be careful at this stage around 78,6% Fibo. retracement. As said above, the price action is slow and the wave structure looks still corrective within a double zig-zag pattern in wave (b), so don't be surprised if we see a sell-off. In case, if we see a decisive break above 4200 level, only then we may start considering wave »iii«!
Trade well!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
short-term bullish countif first blue A-B-C = (A) or (W), second blue A-B-C=(B) or (X), then we can expect wave (C) or (Y) to follow.
e.g. Green 1-2-3-4-5 = (C) or pink A-B-C = (Y)
We know that
Wave (C) of a flat usually between 100% and 165% as long as wave (A)
Wave (Y) of a double zigzag often about the same length as wave (W) (or common Fibonacci ratio o.618 or 1.618)
Both cases suggest $60.96 could be the bullish target, a more conservative target could be re-test the end of first blue wave C at $58.50
Also just be aware that we cannot rule out other complex structures at this stage, e.g. first blue A-B-C = (A) second blue A-B-C = A of (B) etc etc ...
COPPER Can Be Finishing An Expanded Flat CorrectionHello traders!
Today we will talk about metals, specifically Copper.
Metals are in a big rally and everyone is looking for a potential resistance, especially on Gold and Silver! But, Gold and Silver are quite unclear at this stage and it's hard to predict, where are they going to stop, so in our opinion, it's always good to take a look at correlated markets and in this case we see Copper with the clearest pattern, so it's worth to keep an eye on!
Well, we are tracking a big A-B-C expanded 3-3-5 flat correction, where wave C can be finishing the final wave (5). Ideal resistance would be around 2.90-3.00 levels and this is when Gold and Silver may also find the top of wave 5/C!
That said, metals are long-term bearish and current recovery it's just as part of correction, so don't fall in love with bulls, because bears may show up very soon!
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
USDCAD (W,X,Y) Corrective Pattern Going long into a short.I was able to spot a W,X,Y pattern early on USD/CAD, Right now it's finishing off the (b) correction on the (X) wave. Im hoping for it to retrace to the .618 as I find the X wave to commonly retraces to that spot. After the X wave is complete, I'm hoping for the Y wave to finish up on the major trend line holding as support starting from September 2017. The Y wave retracing to the trend line also fits in with the fact that it is the same length as the W wave.
This would also align with the movement of Eur/Cad. If you look at the analysis I posted for eur/cad right now its a ahead of usd/cad in terms of pattern but it has the same movements. Meaning that Eur/cad is finishing the A correction on the X wave, when it moves up the the B correction, USD/cad will be moving up to finish the X wave.