Correctivewave
EURJPY I In correction and will decline from resistanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**EURJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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EURCAD I Short from Supply ZoneWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**EURCAD - Listen to video!
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Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
USDCAD H4Hi traders, USDCAD is setting up for a upside move i am expecting from price to come around our mentioned pattern completion area and looking price action for a long position opportunity, if price break 1.39753 level without hiting our mentioned pattern completion area then this setup will be invalidate.
Trade with your own strategy GOOD LUCK.
USDCHF Correction and continuation - BUYWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**USDCHF - Listen to video!
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BTCUSDT Expanded Flat Correction may be overBear with me (pun intended). I know I'll probably get some slack from the 5 wave correction counting of wave C. Most people would place the 3rd wave in June instead of May, but a few things suggest me that the 3rd wave down was actually in May:
This C wave lies at the 123.6% extension of wave A which is a common area for the Expanded Flat correction.
Volume and RSI printing a divergence
2M RSI just broke out of its falling wedge
BTCUSDT resiliance at the 19k level, in contrast with the current equity price action & general sentiment, which goes against the previous sell offs of April and June
All of the above considered, there's still something missing : that the C wave should hold RSI divergence between wave 3 and 5 at completion, which did not happen with this counting. Also BTC would not only have be above the 19.3k resistance of the 123.6% extension of wave A (which is being rejected @ the moment) as it would also need to break & retest that yellow trendline (hands tied with the faster EMA's) that is holding its price down. But where is the fun in posting ideas when all of the cards are on the table? =D
All I'm saying is that this correction is closer to its ending than the other way around, and what I'm suggesting is that I wouldn't be surprised if it would be already over.
DYOR. Not advice
Easy way to catch impulsive waves (pullback on EURUSD chart)Hello everyone,
learn how to catch the end of wave 4 and trade with the trend.
This corrective wave has made a double bottom on 0.76 fib of the previous impulse movement. The double bottom was achieved with an engulfing candle (entry point). Cut your loss below wave 2 (wave 4 is not supposed to retrace that far), and catch your first profit target at the retest of wave 3 level, and let your profits run.
Goodluck,
Joe.
EURUSD H4Hi traders, EURUSD is setting up for a correction wave. I am expecting a beautiful correction from the EURUSD and hit the upper trendline and 0.618 fib level. Incase that is not happend maybe my view are wrong so then if EURUSD breakout to the downside trendline then it can go to a previous low and form maybe a double bottom scenario GOOD LUCK.
DOW JONES UPDATE - US30US30 UPDATE
The Dow jones is over extended to the downsid since the recent massive bearish move which we capitalised on. On the Left we can notice price is testing a very strong level of Weekly demand, in which i would expect a reaction from buyers.
On the right on the 4H chart notice how yesterday price swept the liquidity below the floor that was created, now the buyers stops have been removed and the market maker has induced sellers back into the market i do favour a relief correction here as institutional trades are likely to take profits on there shorts. No entry confirmations what so ever at the moment for the potential intraday long setup however monitoring the LTF for entries
USDJPY : EXPANDED FLAT SCENARIOThe 2nd possible scenario is called expanded (irregular) flat scenario. You can google what is irregular (expanded) flat.
If this scenario to be valid so the top (B wave) should be between 141.184-144.120 (fibo 127.2%-161.8%) of wave A. Then the wave C whenever the market corrects after wave B would be 128.083-125.147 (fibo 127.2%-161.8%) of wave A.
I wish u all the very best trade here.
GBPCHF LONGFor a very long time, since 1993 GBPCHF is in down trend and it has created completed the 3rd wave on 1 august 2011. Till then its in a flat correction for the 4th wave of the circle. And for the 4th wave its forming ABC pattern while A & B of the ABC flat correction is also completed and moving for the C leg of the 4th Wave. Today is 15th August, and historically August is the bottom of the 3rd wave, so we expect long position for this pair. For this idea our invalidation level also marked. All the best!
Five theories of the market's future. All bad short-termI have come up with a few theories in trying to determine where we are and what could happen next. I believe we are in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand Supercycle wave 5 (began March 2009), Supercycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Cycle wave A (January 4), Primary wave 1 (January 4), Intermediate wave 5 (began June 2, 2022), Minor wave 2 (began June 17 at 1030 eastern time). This is the primary assumption as to where we are (and is referenced as 152A152 based on the wave), but I will explore what should occur next if this is true along with timelines. Theory #2 would have us in a wave ending in 152A52. Theory #3 would put us in a wave ending in 152A4A where Primary 3 just ended at 1030 on June 17 and therefore we will move up for a month or so. Theory #4 is that I am very off base in my wave markings while theory #5 would be that Elliott Wave Theory is only good for Monday morning quarterbacking and the Jacksonville Jaguars will win more times than Elliott Wave will. The U.S. economy is on the brink of major trouble and no one appears to be willing to do anything to stop it so theory #1 is the most plausible at this time. Recession is here and will linger for many quarters.
The beginning of Theory #1 must consider what could happen with Supercycle wave 2 (referenced as 152). Supercycle wave 1 lasted 3252 trading days and ran from March 2009 until January 2022. The index began at 666.79 and topped at 4818.62 for a total move of 4151.83 and rise over run of 1.277 points per day (move/trading days). Based on similar waves ending in 52, the models agree the most that this downward cycle could last 813 trading days which would put the end of this overall downward trend in March 2025. Even if this is true we would move upward again and possibly near all-time highs before falling down. The three closest end points would have this Supercycle ending after 397 trading days (August 4, 2023), 469 (November 15, 2023) and 542 (February 28, 2024). The median movement of waves ending in 52 will move 44.44% of the predecessor wave. This would put the median length at 1445 trading days (August 2027). While this does not bode well, the length could be much shorter as market and wave intensity continue to get more drastic possibly a byproduct of computer trading, technology, market participation, or other factors. Recent waves ending in 52 have seen wave 1 be 2-4 times greater than wave 2 in length. 813 days would be if wave 1 were 4x greater. More specifically, waves ending in 152 tend to last 30-100% of the length of wave 1 with a median length at 50%. The shortest possible lengths are the aforementioned 469 and 813 trading days.
Determining the length of Supercycle wave 2 is only half the battle. Waves ending in 52 tend to retrace or move 32-75% of their wave 1’s movement with a median at 50.17%. This means wave 2 could find its bottom in a range 1344.36-3116.36 below the index’s all-time highs. This would place the bottom between 1702.26-3474.26 with the median bottom at 2401.12. Waves ending in 152 slightly widen the retracement to 25.37-75.67% of the prior wave with a median at 45.71%. This could place the highest bottom at 3765.30 which we have already dropped below.
We can provide early estimates of Cycle wave A and Primary wave 1 inside of Theory #1, however, our next focus is on determining the end of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 5. The ratios and percentages from the prior two paragraphs are still valid as this wave 152A152 ends in 152 and 52. Minor wave 1 lasted 11 days, dropped 540.64 points with a rise over run of 45.053. The length could be between 3-11 days. The models have the strongest agreement on 3 and 6 days long. Day 1 begins Tuesday June 21. June 23rd is 3 days with 6 occurring on June 28. A move between 25-75% of wave 1 could see a quick gain for the index of 137.16-409.10. This could place the top between 3774.03-4045.97 with a median at 3883.99.
If theory #1 proves true, we will likely move quickly over the next week with a top less than 4045.97. This would still provide quick and large gains. Theory #1 is most likely wrong or off by a wave if we drop below 3636.87 before moving above 3770. This theory is the most logical at the moment but I will publish my other theories over the coming days. Once a theory works, we will move forward with it and continue to provide updates going forward.
BTC bottom in or more blood?BTC looks like it hit a bottom after LFG cleared out its $BTC reserves to defend its stability.
The momentum indicator if continues to curl up may produce a bullish momentum div, not yet confirmed. BBWP reading about to top out, no confirmation yet either upon crossover of its MA. EWT corrective target hit ~$30.7k from 1.272 fibs measured from late Jan. bottom to late March top. Not to mention we've hit the bottom of a fork
There are risk factors of this idea not playing such as:
BTC continues to correlate with trades/sp500 and drops alongside it as QT continues, and interest rates get risen from the fed.
BTC has not retested the 200W MA
Cyber security risks w/ regard to complete shutdown of power grids mining BTC and hosting/running many DeFi/L1/L2 services, with nations like RU/CN engaging in non-kinetic warfare. We've already seen RU disconnect intercontinental cables in the Atlantic. As the EU holds out on gas during winter, we could see more desperate measures/retaliation through new avenues in 5th Gen. warfare .
Shanghai lockdown fails to prevent the spread of bird flu , potentially inducing another global lockdown
If the trade does get stopped out, the next areas of interest for entry would be 23k if we close under $29.2k on the daily, invalidating bull impulsive Elliott wave since late June. The on-chain bottom is ~$27k, and 200W MA is ~$21K, both are also entries in the event of an invalidation.
Trade:
Entry:$30.7k
SL: $26.6K
TP: Hull MA ~$36k, ABC PoC ~$39k
CRYPTO market updateIf you watched the previous BTC and US30 multi timeframe update you will know we are now expecting a weekly corrective move in global markets✅
Historically during bear markets we tend to see the strongest rallies, and I expect no difference here. If we are to finally see this bullish corrective wave there are many ALTS that provide good opportunities for some short term SPOT SWING TRADES with decent ROI.
IF the market follows my projection and makes this corrective move DONT get trapped in the hype that will follow if price climbs back up to 35k, as everyone will be screaming that the bear market is over. This is not the case by any stretch.