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Correctivewave

XAUUSD down trend termination or just an other corrective leg?!#XAUUSD has some trend reversal signs. First it completed an ABC corrective wave with a Regular Divergence between wave 3 and 5 in RSI(8) oversell area. It also reacted to the channel lower line and Monthly static support (gray area). It's first resistance is at 1850$ where it reaches the inner line. And if it tends to reach the upper line of the channel it has a major Monthly resistance at 1921$. But these are not enough to reverse the whole downtrend and it can be just and upward correction! What do you think about #XAUUSD?!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RezaBear
MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS - GBPJPY1W Analysis As expected the pair headed to re-test the 1W resistance along with its resistance zone but failed to break either of them. If the pair were to follow suit from our previous analysis we could see the pair break both resistance zone and resistance of the 1W descending triangle then head towards the next resistance zone. 1D Analysis The pair closed as a bullish spinning top after being rejected by the 1W resistance zone but above the 1D resistance turned support zone. A successful bounce off the 1D support zone could case the pair head towards the 1W resistance zone once more and potentially break it. However if the pair fails to gain enough momentum we could see the pair fall towards the support of the 1D ascending channel. 8H Analysis The pair recently closed within a 8H ascending channel after being rejected by the 1W resistance zone but seems to have bounced off a 8H support zone. The rejection from the 1W resistance zone could be the 4th cycle of the Elliott Motive Wave and the bounce off the 8H support zone could be the start of the 5th cycle. A break below the 8H support could indicate that the 4th cycle of the Elliott motive wave is not yet over and is extended into a corrective wave. However if the pair gains enough momentum we could see the pair break the resistance of the channel and in turn possibly break the 1W resistance zone. 4H Analysis The pair closed its last candle as a bullish spinning top and the candle prior as a hammer after bouncing off the 8H support zone, this could be an indication of a potential buy. If the pair closes above the last LH structure of the pair we could see a further buy. However a close below the 8H support zone could see a further decline on the pair towards the trend line resistance turned support. 2H Analysis The pair closed above the 8H support zone and can be seen getting rejected by it after closing its last low higher than the previous which closed within the 8H support zone. This could be an indication of a structural change from LL/LH to HH/HL. A close above the last high could indicate a but heading towards the 1W resistance, whereas a close below the last low could be an indication that the pair could be heading to re-test the resistance turned support of the pennant in recently broke out of. Conclusion Monitor the pair on the 2H and 4H timeframe to see exactly what the pair does and how it coincides with the 8H, 1D and 1W in order to make an accurate trading decision. If you liked this analysis make sure to give us a thumbs up, leave us a comment and make sure to follow us for future ideas 👍❤
by JJForexAcademy
Bulls Will Rush In This Week, But Don't Be FooledBased on the last projection, Intermediate wave 4 should be over. The losses of the past week did move into my projected bottom. However, it does not appear a full 3 wave (ABC) cycle occurred. It only looks like the A wave is now complete. I have adjusted my model to account for this and the projections of the next movements are below. I expect gains most or all of this week and more declines through mid to the end of next week. The bottom should occur around next Friday or the final Monday in September. What wave A did: It lasted 40 trading hours (6 trading days) and dropped 277.64. The rise over run of this was a loss of approximately 6.941 points per hour. Wave A tends to make up 39% on average of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4 in this instance) it makes up. This means Intermediate wave 4 could last around 101 trading hours. Likewise, wave A tends to move 74.6% of Intermediate wave 4’s total move. This means Intermediate wave 4 could drop 372.17 points from top to bottom. This does not mean a straight drop, which will be further illustrated with this week’s projected gains and wave B. Wave B Length In determining how far wave B will move, I have looked at how all B waves for the S&P 500’s Grand Supercycle wave 1 has moved over its 85+ year history. I have used multiple estimations and calculates to narrow down B’s length. B waves tend to last 75% the length of their A counterpart. This means B could last around 30 hours. A waves tend to last 1.32 times the length of B waves. This means B could last around 30.3 hours. Also, A’s makeup of the larger wave is 1.54 times that of wave B. With wave A projected to makeup 39% of the move, this could have wave B last 29.5% of the overall move which equally equates to 29.8 hours. Finally, B waves tend to make up around 25% of the larger wave’s movement. If A is now projected to last around 101 hours. Wave B could last around 25 hours. Based on all of these estimations, I am forecasting Wave B to last around 29-30 hours. This will have it peak around the afternoon on September 17. Wave B Point Move B waves tend to retrace about 60% of wave A’s movement. This could see B rise about 166 points. A’s move tends to be 1.635 times larger than wave B. This could see B gain 169 points total. Wave A’s contribution to the overall larger wave’s (Intermediate wave 4) is typically 1.68 times larger than wave B. If A tends to rise 74.6% of this overall movement (currently projected to be 372.17), then B could makeup 44.4% of the larger wave’s movement which means B could rise 165 points . Separately, Wave B tends to makeup 44% of the larger wave’s movement which is very much inline with the last data point. This could see wave B last 163 points. Finally, on average, wave A’s rise over run is roughly equal (1.00000) to that of wave B. This could mean wave B rises 6.941 points per hour over the course of its length. This does not mean it will rise 6.941 points perfectly ever hour without larger gains or losses in between. Due to my projection of wave B lasting around 29.5 hours and considering this rise over run data point, wave B could gain up to 204.7595 points. The range of potential movement for wave B was tight (163-169) before considering the rise over run data point. My projection for wave B’s peak is around 3477.97 (167.5 point gain). Wave C I will project wave C’s move and length based off of the finalized wave A data and projected wave B data. Wave B’s full data would be 29.5 hours long and 167.5 point gain. This projection would be a rise over run of 5.678 points per hour. Wave B hypothetically lasted 73.75% of wave A’s length (40 hours) and retraced 60.32% of wave A’s movement (277.64). Wave C Length Wave C tends to last 37.02% of the larger wave length. If the larger wave is projected to last 101 hours, wave C would make up around 37 of those hours. Wave C tends to last 107% of wave A’s length. Wave C could last 42.8 hours. A tends to last 1.24 longer than wave C. Wave C could last 32 hours. A’s percentage of the larger wave’s length tends to be around 0.86 of that of C. If A is around 39% of the total length, C would be around 45.34% or last 45.8 hours. Wave B’s length is typically 0.62 times the length of wave C. Wave C could last 47.5 hours. B’s retracement of A’s length is 0.53 times that of C. This could mean wave C extends 139.15% of wave A’s length or last 55.7 hours. B’s portion of the larger wave is typically 0.53 times the size of C’s contribution. This means wave C could make up 54.71% of the larger wave or last 55.3 hours. Considering all of these data points. I currently forecast wave C last approximately 44.5 hours to end around the morning of September 28, 2020. Wave C Point Move Wave C tends to makeup 68% of the larger wave’s movement. If the larger wave meets the forecast of 372.17, wave C could drop 253 points. Wave C typically extends Wave A’s movement by 138.2% (ironically a key Fibonacci number) which would be a 383 point drop. Wave A tends to move 0.85 times that of wave C equating to a 326.635 point drop. Wave A’s portion of the larger wave tends to be 0.92 of C which would make C 81.08% of the larger wave’s move equaling 301.75 points. Wave B tends to move 0.47 that of wave C which would be a wave C drop of 356.38 points. B’s retracement of wave A in relation to C’s extension of wave A is 0.33. This could see C extend 182.79% of wave A’s move or a drop of 507.5 points. Wave B’s move % of the larger wave is typically 0.51 times that of wave C. This could mean wave C makes up 86.27% of the Intermediate wave 4 drop or a wave C contribution of 321.07 points. Wave A’s rise/run is 0.91 times that of wave C. C’s rise/run could be 7.6274 point loss per hour. At 44.5 hours, wave C could drop 335.61 points. Wave B’s rise/run is 1.05 times that of C. C’s rise/run could be 5.4076 points lost per hour equating to a total drop of 243.68 points. The chance of calculating total wave C point loss before the conclusion of wave B is a very rough estimation. This projection will likely be much more refined when I write next weekend. For now, I project C to drop around 350-383 points which is around 3110. Conclusion All told, I have provided windows and estimates for tops and bottoms for waves B and C. I am bullish until early 2022 and still foresee a steady 4-6 month drop beginning around the end of October early November. I would assess this has something to do with the U.S. election results or lack thereof due to ‘vote counting complications.’
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
17
One week left for bears before moonshotEven though the downturn started a few days later than planned, it still met the expected drop. Wave A could have occurred until the end of trading on Friday, but it may have ended Friday morning at 1030. The red down arrows and one green up arrow are based on Intermediate Wave 3 lasting 46 days and with its move extending beyond Intermediate Wave 1's movement by 134.09%. These arrows are a rough projection of movement. There length may not line up perfectly but points moved are typically much more accurate. There are two possible tracks for the week. Option 1: Wave A may be in the early stages and have only completed wave 2 of wave A. This would drive the index down drastically at some point this week, before a bounce up and then more downward movement possibly with a bottom next week. A significant upward wave B would need to occur before the end of next week and then another week or too of significant drops until wave C finds its bottom. THIS COURSE IS UNLIKELY. I assess the next one to be most likely. Option 2: Wave A did in fact complete itself at 1030 Friday. This would mean it lasted roughly 18 30-minute bars instead of the projected 29. The projected top to bottom movement of Wave A was 246.25 versus the actual of 238.48. Wave B's projected move was 145.44 over 20 30-minute bars. With wave B's likely end, it only lasted 9 bars and climbed 105.51. Based on my analysis, B waves typically last around 75% the length of their wave As. This B wave would be half of that, which is not abnormal, but could mean wave B moves a little higher over the first 2 hours of trading on Tuesday. Wave C was initially projected to drop 223.11 over 33 bars. Wave C can still do this, especially if wave B moves up toward 3487 early on Tuesday. If wave B does not find a new top by 1130 Tuesday, wave C could be in full force. With wave B starting early by 22 30-minute bars, wave C could end early by 22 bars or more. The earliest end for wave C is 1030 Thursday. If wave B continues for a few more bars, wave C should find a solid bottom before 1430 Friday. It might be a little odd to sell during the course of a week, albeit it a shortened week, just to come off the bottom for the final 90 minutes of the week. A more likely action would be wave C's bottom earlier in the day Friday or the following Monday. Long-term projection is still on track for a rise to new all-time highs before mid-October, followed by 700-800 point decline through Mach 2021, and a massive rise to new all-time highs again before finally crashing in early 2022. We will see what happens. Keep checking back as we track this wild ride to the end in early 2022.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
8