NBL bearish gap downThere are a lot of energy stocks, which have gapped down, on our list today. Many provide near-term sell opportunities but I felt the best of them was NBL.
Looking at pivot highs and lows on the weekly chart, NBL seemed to have plenty of room to manoeuvre (about 800 points before the next major support). The daily gap down (on higher volume) broke below longer-term pivot highs (and the recent pivot low) as well as $50. The breakout bar was bearish and price is trading below the 200ma (weekly and daily).
While I don't trade fundamentals I do feel that it is the fall in oil prices which may well have affected so many energy stocks. So trading oil may be a more straightforward alternative to shorting correlated stocks.
Correlation
The comparative strength or weakness of Gold vs. US DollarIn this study, I'm looking at the performance of gold, in terms of percentage gains/loss compared to the performance of the US dollar, tracked by the dollar index (DXY). As gold moves inversely with the US dollar, I inversed the DXY to set a comparative benchmark, hence 1/DXY.
Please see notes on chart.
EUR/USD Channeling up to previous High, Resistance & Fib. levelBased On: Structure, Fibonacci levels, Channel, Stochastics, RSI, Momentum..
IF EUR/USD Reaches 1.3648. Economic Calendar events will effect this heavily, i am looking forward to a volatile day (TODAY:EUR Interest Rate, Decision, ECB Press Conference, US Nonfarm Payrolls, US Unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI ) If these events will be positive for EUR and Negative for Dollar, this could be a fast move (1day).
Then ==> I will Buy EUR/USD, I may however buy it at a slightly higher price as the price action up has already strated, but it would be safer to wait till the price drops and then but, it could also not happen.
(IF EUR/USD will go up very slowly THEN i will take some profits of early)
IF Today's big economic calendar events goes in conflict with a move up THEN ==> i will close my position and possibly open it again if an opportunity presents itself.
Thoughts & Why's
UP SIDE
There is a clear channel that is going up and is likely to continue.
Stochastics RSI is Oversold at 11 (11.4)
Momentum is gaining
Strong structure (6-8 points)
US Dollar INDEX (DXY) look's like a sell along with USD/CHF ( ) so EUR/USD should go up as dollar weakens.
There is also a double bottom, which is also a medium sign that EUR/USD is going to go up in short term.
DOWN SIDE
1. Major Fibonacci Level 0.382
2. Structure (Confluence with Fib Level 0.382)
A major 0.382 Fibonacci level at 1.3689 that and structure right there as well.
When Fib Level 0.382 (EUR/USD=1.3689) a retracement will probably take place if Dollar index goes down.
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SPX500 vs CADJPYCADJPY pair is preempting to move of SPX500 as you will see on the daily graphic.
The momentum and the move of CADJPY is bigger, but when CADJPY is UP, SPX500 is up
and when CADJPY is down, SPX500 is down after a while...
But of course bare in mind that
CORRELATION DOESN'T IMPLY CAUSATION ;-)
HSBC vs FTSE which will perform better? 130days forecast #spreadIndex Arbitrage Forecast: FTSE100 will outperform HSBC
Supporting Strategies: Cointegration, Correlation and Technical
Analysis Pattern : Elliott Wave 5
The trade should be opposite to the "gap". HSBC has performed better than FTSE100, in order to close the gap FTSE will now perform better in the next 131 days.
Targets and notes on charts
