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Corrs

SHORT CABLE: HISTORICAL GBPUSD v EURUSD CORRELATION CYCLESOn the 1D time frame, a strong positive correlation relationship emerges - where previously on the 4h time-frame the correlation looked relationship-less and "noisy". However, looking back at the Daily correlation over the last 2-3 years for GU and EU one noticeable and significant trend emerges - A steep fall in correlation, either from positive-lower positive, or positive to negative, is historically ALWAYS followed shortly by a plummet/ Sell-off in GBP$. Thus as we see below GU v EU correlation has been descending and has just turned negative - so in my opinion we should consider selling GU as if history holds true an aggressive sell off on the daily is close by. I also like short GU fundamentally over the next 4 weeks especially but also 12months for: FOMC 16th June - hawkish or hike must push GU lower. BREXIT 23rd june - UK Referendum uncertainty will inevitable price GU lower than 1.43 at somepoint before or on the 23rd, even if briefly - just like GU priced lower as Scottish Independce referendum loomed (which is less of a risk but equally as likely to happen) Economic Divergence - Fundamentally the UK economy and financial markets are not as robust as the US due to a lack of innovation and a poor technology sector, which massively will affect productivity, the recovery and future growth (especially as moores law becomes questionable). This economic divergence will be priced in as lower GU as investors in the long run price such economic differentials as speculation in future monetary policy divergence.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
TRADING CORRELATION PT 1- EURUSD: SELL EUR$ ON DXY MOVES HIGHER This 2-part article will look at the practical application of correlations in trading and show how to use correlation inferences to exploit the statistical advantages they offer. On the 4h time frame, the highest day-tradable timeframe imo we see EUR$ has an exclusively negative and almost 1for1 correlation with the dollar index (or dollar "market"), however, despite popular belief EU actually has a mixed and weak correlation with GU (as we see the EU v GU correlation move from positive to negative several times). This relationship is backed up by EU price action currently trading at +2sd of the mean, whilst GU performs the stark opposite at -2sd of the mean. We can use this information in 2 ways to trade the 4h time frame - please bear in mind this is the 4h timeframe only, corrs differ using different time-frames. 1. We know that EU and GU dont hold any confident correlation thus we SHOULDNT make trades based for EU based on GU - despite many people often trading EU based on GU moves. 2. Instead, we know 4h EU is highly correlated with the $ Market, thus we CAN make trades based on $ Index moves - so personally, i will wait for the $index to move/break higher, at which point i will then SHORT EU, since they have a 90%+ negative correlation relationship which is rising atm. - This imo gives us a perfect entry signal, once $ Index moves up we can then short the overweight EU which is trading at highly volatile levels above its average. I also like short EU fundamentally for: FOMC hawkish or hike on the 16th - must push eur$ lower BREXIT 23rd june - UK Referendum imo has NOT yet been priced at all in downside euro's yet (especially compared to GU, this is the main driver for the increase in negative corrs between the two pairs currently) ECB poor econ management - Eurozone is STILL suffering with below 0% inflation and 10%+ unemployment, i think this trend will continue throughout the year and ECB will have to do more printing/ issue more EURO supply side, thus moving EU down - especially if the FOMC hikes and the Monetary policy diverges more. I will shortly release a follow up article, looking at a higher time-frame to illustrate the different tradable inferences we can make.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
LOWER VOL, VOLU AND LOWS. HIGHER CORRS AND HIGHS (GOOG BUY @711)Google C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs. Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 715 before moving up again to 750+ 715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interesting in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1 with risk. Coming into earnings, Goog has to make at least one bull run to highs at 770 and i believe this will be the set up for the run for several reasons: 1. since april earnings lows at 687 goog has moved in an upward trend of 688-722-700-736, the next cycle i approximate to be down to 710-3 (volume traded price) then up to 750+ (previous support turned resistance). Also the Linear regression for the on graph prices is $723, so prices below this are below this cycles average - encouraging mean reversion upwards. 2. Goog volatility correlation is in its negative cycle - the last bull cycle to 768 began with a turn from positive to negative price-volatility correlation change. - Plus goog's volatility is at yearly lows. Low vols is something that imo is vital for any sustained bull run, as logically, more people want to own a stock that has a greater "normalised" return and risk profile. 3. Volume average divergence - google volume is trading below its 6 month average, lower volume characterises goog's bull runs typically. Since it signifies there are fewer structural sellers that are prepared to sell the stock, thus volume drops and the price is bid up until sell side liquidity is increased sufficiently to meet an equilibrium price. 4. *please see last 3 price bars* - these bars have been highlighted as having a "topside range skew". What is inferred by this is that the candle has more activity at the higher prices e.g. the candle traded at its highs and open more than its close and low - thus this is a bullish signal as the open high and close data stayed in the upper percentiles of the candle. - Even the first candle in question (the first bear candle), opened and closed at apprx the median price.. this is unusual. the first bear candle after a strong bullish run, usually shows heavy open-close downside skew e.g. the price opens and then closes close to the lows (rather than in the middle of prices traded) - indicating that time period closed with the price being driven/held at the lowest possibility. If we were to see the opposite e.g. the candles closing on the lows, this would be bearish and indicate the price is wanting to push lower, since there was no difference between the low and close. Fundamentally i am also long google anyway, hence why i liike buying 5-10% pull backs.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
IS YEN REALLY RISK-OFF AND CORRELATED TO SPX (RISK-ON)?Though id post as just one example, perhaps the most obvious, that shows how heavily the JPY is considered a risk-off asset and to show the clearly, since the SPX is a risk-on asset, that the JPY is negatively correlated with the SPX. In times of market fear/ uncertainty, YEN is sought out, just like bonds and gold, as a safe heaven asset. The theory behind this is that the JPY offers stability through the nation being one of the only developed nation with a net credit balance sheet. Clearly, in the financial crisis, one with a hypothesis as the above, should see the SPX fall and the YEN risk.. Indeed, the chart shows exacty that, almost 1:1 correlation. Now, the JPY SPX correlation DOES change, in times of extreme fear or extreme exuberance, the YEN will be proportionately more correlated with the SPX and other risk assets. . In "Normal" or non heavily trending markets, the correlation is less obvious - since it is the extremes that cause investors to seek difference assets and change their strategy in masses. In times of fear, investors move their liquidity to risk-off YEN, hence we see USDJPY fall during the crisis. We also see SPX fall in a correlated manner, this is because investors pull their liquidity OUT of SPX and apply it in some proportion to YEN.
by QuantumLogicTrading