Costco (NASDAQ:COST) Indicating Positive Sign of a Bullish Trend
Costco wants your loyalty
To some extent, Costco's sales will ebb and flow along with the economy. That's natural for a retailer. But what won't change over the next three years is the company's focus on keeping its customers happy, because that supports an important income stream. And you can keep tabs on that by watching its membership renewal rates.
Costco's Growth
Costco's growth opportunities reside in increasing membership by incremental amounts and opening new stores. Comparable-sales growth is strained right now due to inflation, but the company typically demonstrates mid- to high-single digit percentage comparable sales growth. Membership increased 7.9% year over year in the fiscal fourth quarter (ended Sept. 3), and membership fee income increased as a percentage of sales from 1.88% to 1.95%. It will also likely raise its annual membership fee, which stands at $60 for a basic membership, sometime soon. That will lead to an increase on the bottom line.
If you own this stock, or are considering buying it, making sure that Costco generates consistently high renewals may actually be more important than monitoring its product sales.
Price Momentum
COST is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
COST
COSTCO: Watch this buy breakout level leading to All Time HighsCostco Wholesale Corporation is testing the R1 level (571.65) for the third day straight on a nicely balanced bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.287, MACD = 2.930, ADX = 22.559). Since the dominant pattern thus far is a Channel Up, if the 1D candle closes over the R1 level, traders should regard it as a bullish breakout opportunity, targeting the R2 level (TP = 612.00) which is the stocks ATH.
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XLP - Staples are lagging the market XLP has had horrific downside price action over the last several weeks.
As it approaches the Weekly 200 MA I do anticipate a bounce to occur.
Not many sectors are near the weekly 200 MA.
Buying this at the Weekly 200 MA has proven to be a great long term entry for investors.
If a bounce occurs and bearish consolidation on the weekly chart occurs, this sector will likely be a good short side play.
I would never short this sector now since its had a big decline. A bounce is more favourable at this point.
COST show a relatively high level of large-scale triangularCOST show a relatively high level of large-scale triangular
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Costco's stocks over the past year. The top to bottom golden section at the beginning of 2022 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, Costco's stock peaked in April 2022, plummeted, and began to strengthen in May 2022, showing a relatively high level of large-scale triangular fluctuations and consolidation overall! The stock of Costco Company was suppressed by the top to bottom golden ratio of 1.382 at its high points in July and September this year. Therefore, in the future, this position can be used as the watershed for judging its strength!
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought COST ahead of the previous earnings release:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of COST Costco Wholesale Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 540usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $6.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
COST the retailing warehouse chain LONGCOST had lackluster earnings two months ago and is due for another report in
late September, Despite the earnings miss, COST immediately uptrended as if
traders and investors were expecting far worse. Since June 1st, COST has been
in an ascending parallel channel bounded by the dynamic support and resistance
of the first and second VWAP standard deviation lines above the mean as anchored
to a date before the earnings. The MACD is currently showing bearish divergence
while COST is at the upper resistance in the channel. As a result I will place
a short trade on COST here with a stop loss above that red dynamic resistance
line. Upon managing the trade, I will close and reopen the trade long when price
meets the lower support blue VWAP line and is likely to reverse.
WMT benefits from consumer confidence LONGWMT may be benefiting from the potential suspension of federal rate hikes potentially
giving consumers more buying confidence and maybe a stabilization of credit card rates
as another form of relief. On the 4H chart, WMT is showed with a pair of anchored VWAP
bands set at the beginning of a prior breakout on June 30th and the pivot high on July 5th.
Price had descended to the third deviation green lines below the mean VWAPs zone ( black
lines) but has now ascended to the first deviation blue lines below the mean VWAPs.
WMT is in an early VWAP breakout at this point as price approaches the mean VWAP.
The MFT RSI indicator of Chris Moody shows both low and high TF RSIs now above the 50 level
and the low higher than the high demonstrating bullish momentum. The zero-lag MACD
is also confirmatory showing a line cross under the histogram on July 11th.
I find WMT suitably set up for a swing long trade. I will seek out the best entry on the
15-30 minute time frame by identifying a privot low from which to enter. The target
is the red second deviation lines above the mean VWAP zone at $158.25. A call options
trade would be for $157.00 with a 9-10 DTE.
COST - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹COST is in a rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹COST has broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range.
🔹COST has support at 486 and resistance at 523.
🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Target TGT Is it a buy or sell?TGT is presently selling off as a consequence of a social media retail boycott of sorts which
developed after the Bud Lite episode. In the meantime, it had decent earnings despite the
impending or present recession. The volume profiles show previously the highest volume of the
trading range was $ 155 but now it has fallen to $139. So should a trader consider the earnings
and buy this discount or instead pay attention to sentiment and short TGT?
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t sold COST Costco Wholesale Corporation here:
Then Analyzing the options chain of COST Costco prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 495usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-5-26,
for a premium of approximately $9.00
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Dollar General (DG) a recession stock is Trending UpDG had a swing low in mid-March. While it has retraced well, it is still 15% below the YTD high
On the 2H chart, the retracement uptrend is accompanied by a persistent volume of about 2X
that of March and before. I am supposing that with an early or light recession underway, value
sensitive consumers are delivering DG more revenue from its retail operations and will continue
to do so. The zero-lag MACD is showing a buy signal; I will take a long position and watch
for signs of overextension or loss of directional strength as an exit in due time.
4/14 Watchlist + NotesMy watchlist got taken down by TradingView moderators yesterday. As a recap, I was bearish on SPY, and main watch was PYPL for the 3-1 setup it had on the daily
SPY - Super bullish uptrend day. I was hoping for bearish continuation, but the markets had other plans. I can really only credit this movement to two things: Neutral CPI data, and markets possibly re-adjusting/stabilizing from yesterday's madness. Regardless of why we were so off with our prediction, we were just wrong plain and simple. Unfortunately my streak of correct predictions has ended because of today. This is a prime example of an engulfing day not following suit and moving in the unexpected direction, which happens about 15% of the time when we see engulfing candle days.
We closed relatively strong, so I have to believe we will see continuation tomorrow. Upside target set at the 416 area. I have a feeling we either pump hard tomorrow or just consolidate and create an inside day. Would rather see an inside day being made than another 2U
Watchlist:
3-1 Daily Setups: (Neutral on all except TSLA)
TSLA - Bullish
COST
DOCU
DIS
2-1 Daily Setups: (Also Neutral on All)
AMD
SHOP
PFE
SQ
BABA
LULU
CSCO
Main Watch:
TSLA & PYPL
PYPL never broke out of the 3-1 daily so now it is in a 3-1-1. Watching for upside
TSLA is in a 3-1 and has more room to the upside. Also watching for upside. Target is 191. To the downside target is 176.16
Yesterday's main watch:
PYPL: mentioned it did not break out of the 3-1 above. Not a loss, not a win either
Watchlist Stats:
3/4 on SPY predictions
2/4 Main Watch Plays
Personal Stats:
1/3 On the week
Overall red
Messed up today. Had two solid trade ideas, but just barely got stopped out on both before the move I was looking for happened. After two losses I called it a day and just watched for the rest of the day. Sometimes on days like today where I am right with my analysis, but lose trades, it is best to just stop trading and watch. Every trader has good and bad days. I can credit this red day to a few minor issues, but the main thing on days like this is to be able to recognize the mistake or mistakes, learn from them, and move on. Lets rebound tomorrow and close the week green. Good luck everyone
3/30 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Interesting day on SPY. We said yesterday that the markets could realistically go either way, but we were watching more so to the downside due to the failed 2U formed on Monday that was followed by a 2D yesterday, and having that small bearish bias by simply playing what is in front of us vs using other reasons for bias. SPY ended up gapping up premarket and closing green on the day with little to no upside wick. Based on today's movement, I believe that we will see some continuation to the upside tomorrow. With that being said, we still have the gap created in premarket to fill. I think that we will test last weeks high at 402.49 either tomorrow or Friday, but I do think that it will happen at some point sooner rather than later. I am open to playing both sides tomorrow, but it will depend on whether we break today's high and test last weeks high, or if we break today's low and try to fill that gap to the downside. It is worth noting also that we are sitting on the weekly upper trendline Final thoughts: I am forced to have a bullish bias for tomorrow, which I believe to be about 75% valid. I still think there is a chance we fill that downside gap before pushing higher
Watchlist + Bias:
AMD - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
COST - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
PFE - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
GOOG - 2-1 Daily: Neutral
NFLX - 2-1 Daily: Bullish
JNJ - 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bullish
FDX - 3-1-2U Weekly: Bullish - Today we broke out of the 3-1 weekly setup to the upside. Looking to target 226.06
Main Watch:
JNJ and GOOG
JNJ - Weekly chart is indicating we have hit a low and are looking to reverse to the upside soon. Going into tomorrow, I am hoping to see us continue up to the 154.13 level before hopefully taking out 154.54
GOOG - GOOG has room to both sides. There is a large FVG on both sides as well that relate to my targets for each side. To the downside, we have a daily FVG at yesterdays low of 100.28. To the upside we have a FVG starting at yesterdays high of 103.00, and I also have a target at the 50% retrace of that upside FVG at 103.87. Both of these targets are easily attainable in my opinion for tomorrow depending on which side we break out to. I don't have a bias as to which side id rather play, but I think that it will more so depend on how the markets are moving as a whole tomorrow. Remember, with these 2-1 setups, we are looking to play WITH momentum and not fight it.
Yesterday's Main Watch:
MRNA: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No
MRNA broke yesterdays high within the first 5 minutes of market open, which is not what we were looking for. We were looking to play downside only, and because of this movement, we did not enter. It is worth noting that both times MRNA broke yesterdays high, it was almost immediately shot back down, which shows that we would have gotten smoked if we tried playing upside. This is a good example of why we look at longer time frames like the weekly and monthly to develop a bias, and then stick to that bias.
Watchlist Stats For The Week:
2/3 on SPY predictions
2/3 on Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: NVDA (75%+)
Personal Stats:
4/6 For The Week:
Overall Green/Red?: Green (Day and Week)
Buying Costco at a discount. COSTTriangle/Three drives within an upgoing zigzag. We more often now base stop loss off a moving ATR, as testing had shown this to be a more effective strategy than mere price levels alone. Yet, ATR is not always an option.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in green with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Bullish pattern ?COST shows a bullish pattern
A double bottom structure is also seen on the 1-hour chart, and the 250 SMA position is a test for the index (around 495), where day traders can take profit and wait for opportunities.
Swing traders can stop the profit taking part and add to their positions depending on the strength of the pullback. The target position could be around the previous high of 528. Stop loss will be around the previous low of 466.