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Costbasis

Fib. channel fitted on linear scale and a 20W extension20W moving average (and a white shadow of a 21W EMA) has historically indicated a good near term cost basis. With a fitted fibonacci slanted channel (and more-or-less randomly extending the 20W average) we can plot a possible path for BTC, dancing between past fib level trend lines for resistance at important price levels, while also holding support at this imagined 20W SMA extension. Of course, depending on the weekly close, this can breakdown form 20W SMA, in which case we continue our crab, I think.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by umutbilgicapple
Buy Pull BacksWith the US infrastructure bill passed and GDP expansion via fiscal support, the broad market is still long. VIX curve show no signs of backwardation, but the cautionary note is the Debt Ceiling and Budget issues coming up - these may provide buying or covered call writing opportunities. Side note: no hyper inflation and relates going lower as Fed rate rises are still off the table! If we have a growing re-opening economy in the US will supply chain blockages being worked through, we may see further upside in the US economy and credit cycle growth assisting.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Adam-Cox
9
BTC - the market does NOT tell me to Sell.......yet :)BTC grinding towards the previously noted price target of $53-$54 mark. That coincides with closing price levels and swing traders' cost basis. SOPR is net positive with no material profit taking indicated by Realised Profit & Loss Indicator. BTC price risk in-part based on future spreads indicates a possible pullback - but that would be anticipated as price approaches this level anyway. Futures market yet to catch-up I think to the underlying. I am remaining Long BTC because the market is not telling me to 'SELL' :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
3
LTC Net Long - Positive Cost Basis and SOPR. LTC break above cost basis - most traders still HODL'ing with no material realised gains (profit taking) to note to date. SOPR indicates a few pundits chucked in the towel early (refer : arrow) , but LTC is now a net long market. My strategy Currently, trading long the SOPR breaks and pull backs above the Cost Basis line (market net profit line). Conditions may change, but that's like any other speculative activity - just monitor as per usual! Best of Luck :) #LTC #Crypto
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
2
Equilibrium reached: Falling back into the rangeLTCUSD has ground-up to cost basis seeing the market on average now breaking-even. The cost basis line being a natural price target for those buying at the lows i.e. naïve structure trades. Minor profit taking has now taken place = with realised PnL (refer to Histogram). Herein lies the issue - the market on average is at breakeven, but no new capital has rushed in (yet) to push prices higher. The risk of disequilibrium and downside risk management is now the issue faced by the average LTC holder. Hodl'íng has certainly paid-off, but will the pace of breakeven trading accelerate to see further downside pressure with prices falling back into the range? Two points to note here: 1 volume has picked-up on the latest red candle; and 2 LTC's rate of return compared to other cryptos such as BTC and Doge has been good - bit not great! 3 Event risk - but that's a commonality. LTC is an unique case. Unlike BTC and Doge most holders of LTC have experienced a roller coaster ride of an equity curve - profits, net losses and now back to breakeven. That's quite a different experience and hence psychology faced by holders than those of BTC and Doge; where most capitalization has been in open profits with 1-5% of capitalization caught out swing trading. LTC provides a good working basis to: - trading from the perspective of what other traders are perceiving - an important skill set to develop. Phycology doesn't just means your own - it also means what others are experiencing - trading plan development - is this a break trade, or a buy on limits at lower prices in the range? For me personally, I am long BTC. Have been Long Doge. For LTC trading, I want to see prices above Cost Basis and with successful NOT failed re-tests. Please note: Whilst I have 25 years trading, finance industry experience, and won the John Brooks Memorial Award (IFTA) I do not use technical analysis per se. I write my own analysis tools which do not borrow from technical analysis methods.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by Adam-Cox
Cost Basis is the key to understanding how to trade cryptos.My prior posts on BTC presented the concept that if BTC bounced-off the lower cost basis line (illustrated was the swing trader and short term traders costs basis), we would want to be long and take advantage of the accumulation driven by 1) Hodlers not selling and 2) new capital coming into the market (with lower break even points.) The middle cost basis line (refer to related articles/links), I said to be long when support was found with the first price target being the upper costs basis line. The second trade or add-to trade, would be when the upper cost basis line was breached and support was found on a re-test - we are now at that point. Out next price target are the prior highs. This is a reflexive process where new capital is drawn in as price escalates which attracts even more capital and a higher rate of 'hold'ing'' that is : "trade when the market is behind you!" On the other hand - the cost basis lines provides solid areas for average breakeven points in the market and where you stop losses can be set - at least mentally. This is important as crypto is an expectations game - this no fundamental value to provide arbitrage boundaries per se - so this is a very good way of understanding pure speculation and its application to BTC and other cryptos. #BTC #CostBasis #AdamCox #Trading #Crypto
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
More grind-up required to breakeven!LTC is still an unique case. Overall the market as a whole is on average underwater. Whilst a small fraction of this market has taken losses, many are still Hod'lers. I am keeping an eye on this as I would consider long trades if support is found after a rally above the current cost basis. This is a conservative approach but does mean the market would be behind my position with open profits rather than the potential of break-even trades on rallies around average cost basis levels.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by Adam-Cox
Testing support for re-test of prior highs.BTC found support on the lower cost basis level, and thenrallied to the upper line. It appears to me that substantial profit taking has not taken place (yet) nor has breakeven trading. In other words the market has seen some real "Hodl'ing", which bodes well either to stymie any downside panic attacks and also to aid the prospencity of further rallies. So I am still holding and will manage further longs as see the market unfold over the next couple of days. #btc
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
DOGE: Controlled liquidation?Lower cost basis line being tested and at the moment respected! No great churn or capital replacement evidenced (refer to the lower oscillator) This means a couple of things: - the 'crowd' is not yet chucked-in the towel and given up on Doge - cost basis for these traders is at or around breakeven / underwater (about of Doge's 10% capitalisation) - there appears to have been a controlled liquidation underway / the bid hasn't been hit aggressively by 'panic'ed sellers' - yet! If you are going long on the those wicks at the bottom - just be cautious and use common sense. Which means: - exposure management - understand downside potential (the bottom line) Good luck :) #Doge #RiskManagement
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
DOGE - Risk Management CommentaryOn average, the Cost Basis for DOGE Coin is less than $0.02. Because, no more than around 10% of DOGE capitalisation has been actively traded, downside can be as low as $0.02 - with very little resistance straight down to the 'floor' The tell-tale sign of a break is when existing long traders (at their current break-even point or currently experiencing losses ) - finally throw in the towel and square-up their positions, or worse case, miners etc., those who have a cost basis at much lower prices, dump their inventory - for them at the current price, that's still a very attractive return and still a very real possibility. Of course the inverse is also true - but subject to 'tweet risk' - a different risk driver. So be aware, and plan your risk management accordingly! Good Luck !
BITTREX:DOGEUSD
by Adam-Cox
Doge - it's matter of Cost Basis vs perception.Update My last update on DOGE Coin was that I could long so long as support came into the market - and the demarcation point for this support would the lower cost basis line as indicated on the chart. I also suggested that Doge's price would 'float' down to this lower level as I did not see spikes in realised losses. This price decline would be primarily driven by a lack of buying pressure, and driven from the dilution effect which is a constant feature of Doge. Suggestions We are we now at the point of potential longs! Note: the market average cost basis for Doge coin is about $0.02 Being long requires stop loss discipline as there is no fundamental value per se for this (virtual) asset - it's matter of cost basis vs perception. I would be more keen to long if I saw volume pickup at this current price areas, or I see further evidence of 'crypto' hype - the tweet effect! Next Steps If we see any rallies, I will be noting if large profit taking occurs or if short covering is the core feature. This will be a driver of long exits and opening shorts.
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by Adam-Cox
BTC COT - Still shows signs of negativity>BTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report stills shows signs of dealer negativity and declining retail sentiment. Obviously, this can all change on a dime. I don't plan trades on COT alone. However, what COT is good for is understand where market participants stand and what 'knock-on' effects may eventuate when market's reverse or when trend continuation occurs. Specifically, - if the market is caught net short, any impulse to rally the market (BTC in this case), can squeeze higher before continuing, - if the market is net short and biased in that way, Calls may be cheap relative to puts (so there may be an opportunity here to buy time usefully), - Understand the 'mind of the market' which is often wrong and miss-timed - so may be a useful contrary indicator. Recommendation - check out Cost Basis and Realised PnL to understand whether new money is flowing into the market (at lower prices) - keep an eye on any sudden changes of COT, particularly to the opposite direction, particularly where a market stalls and finds support (a good buy!) - news and 'tweet' effects including ' potential squeeze risk! Good Trading :)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Adam-Cox
US Broad Market Cost Basis - Large Equity Cushion for Pullbacks!I have discussed a number of times of current position of continuing being long in the US SP500 index. One aspect of my analysis is fundamental; another aspect is reviewing the market's on-average cost basis and realized PnL. What is evident from this picture is the 'buffer' or open unrealised gains currently sitting in the market. (Contrast this with TSLA - and it's quite a different picture) This is an important observation because what it means is that the market can pull back quite a lot, and still retain a net overall profit, and no (bull) trend change. This provides the basis of understanding when to add to potential longs or engage in a short term swing trading to the upside rather than potentially misunderstanding a pull back as a market crash. Not outlined in this chart is the fact that only about 20% of the market (based on market capitalization terms) is swing trading with this cohort's cost basis being around minor swing lows. Call writing has been a great strategy for some on this fiscally inspired bull run!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Adam-Cox
1
LTC Market still grinding up - slowly - but net overall loss!LTCUSD still grinding up, albeit slowly - but it is one of the only main cryptos which is in net overall loss on average. This analysis illustrates how investors have been holding positions which on average have been under water. Whilst this is a positive sign because it infers that investors have higher price expectations in the future i.e. they haven't thrown in the towel - yet! There isn't a lot of evidence pointing to new capital flowing into this market however. I am keeping an eye of LTCUSD for a potential long, but if I see realised losses mounting on rallies, then that's a no-go from the long side.
COINBASE:LTCUSD
by Adam-Cox