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COT

Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! Chart 1W CBOT_MINI:YM1! BLACKBULL:US30 Promising Breakout Setup Ahead! The chart highlights RSI and Williams %R trendline breakout plays. My strategy? Identify trendlines on the chart, monitor RSI and Williams %R, and target breakouts on these momentum indicators. Current Situation: All key signals have already triggered. Strong bullish seasonality Favorable COT data (small specs bearish, commercials bullish) Low open interest This setup aligns with high-probability breakout criteria. Chart Indicator SMA 1W 52 (red) SMA 1W 18 (green) Bottom Indicators WilVal Williams R% 9 length RSI 9 length Not Financial Advice for more questions ask in the comments or check my X @valuebuffet
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by FairValueBuffet
USDCAD Short Setup – Potential Top Formation & Seasonal WeaknessTechnical: USDCAD has stalled in recent weeks, signaling a potential topping pattern. A recent break of the short-term trend suggests a deeper correction may follow. Key resistance is at 1.4355 , offering a favourable risk-reward short opportunity. Fundamental: The U.S. dollar remains weak, with commercial participants showing little interest in buying. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is seeing increased accumulation, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Seasonal: Historically, from March 24 – April 30 , USDCAD has declined 76.2% of the time over the past 21 years, with an average drop of 1.30%. Trade Idea: Sell: 1.4355 Stop Loss: 1.4551 Target: 1.3948 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by Signal_Centre1
NZD/USD Long Setup – Breakout Confirmation & Smart Money SupportTechnical: NZD/USD has broken above 0.5572 resistance, confirming a bottom. This level should now act as support on any pullbacks. Look to enter between 0.5762 – 0.5572, with an upside target of 0.5870. Place a stop loss at 0.5730 to manage risk. Fundamental: The U.S. dollar is seeing continued selling pressure from commercial participants, while NZD is being accumulated—suggesting smart money positioning for further upside. Seasonal: Historically, NZD/USD has risen 66.67% of the time between March 17 – April 12, with an average return of 1.31% over the past 21 years. Trade Idea: Entry: 0.5762 – 0.5572 Stop Loss: 0.5730 Target: 0.5870 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by Signal_Centre1
Dow Jones: A Make-or-Break Buy Setup with Smart Money BackingDow Jones Industrial Average - Buy Setup Technical: U.S. markets have struggled recently due to uncertainty over tariffs imposed by President Trump. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have broken key support levels, the Dow remains resilient, holding the critical 41,648 support. A break below would confirm a large double-top pattern, signaling a bearish outlook. This is a pivotal moment. The rebound from overnight lows is encouraging, but with the U.S. CPI release tomorrow, caution is warranted. While speculative, COT and seasonal data favour a short-term move higher. Fundamental: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report shows increasing long interest in the Dow, suggesting "smart money" accumulation. Seasonal: Historically, from March 12 – May 2, the Dow has posted gains 84% of the time, averaging +3.68% over the past 25 years. Setup: Entry: 41,800 – 42,000 Stop Loss: 41,285 (below the Nov 2024 low at 41,648) Target: 44,290 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US30Long
by Signal_Centre1
US Light Crude (WTI) - Buy SetupTechnical Analysis: The overall trend remains bearish, but the price has stalled at a major support level of 6568.7, corresponding to the September 2024 lows. WTI has been rangebound for several months, with the upper end of the range at 8044.3. Yesterday's Doji candle signals indecision, and today’s early move higher suggests potential upside. While speculative, the risk/reward setup appears attractive. Fundamental Analysis: The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) Report indicates increasing long positions in Oil, suggesting that institutional investors ("Smart Money") may be accumulating around current levels. Seasonal Trends: Historically, between March 18 – May 21, Oil has delivered positive returns 76.47% of the time, with an average gain of 5.56% over the past 34 years. Trade Setup: Entry: 6630 – 6765 Stop Loss: 6462 (below the 2024 low at 6568) Target: 8044 (upper end of the long-term range) Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer Program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:WTILong
by Signal_Centre1
$NASDAQ:ILMN - analysis of annual cot levelsNASDAQ:ILMN Please remember that this idea does not constitute investment advice. After a personal analysis of the institutional value of the COT, buy and sell program levels are outlined. Since the asset is at its minimum, the idea is to wait for the price to head inside the buy program, wait for a swing to form in the direction of the target level (the first sell program) and open the trade at the break of this. The position is medium-term (from 1-2 weeks to 1-2 months); without financial leverage and the maximum profit area is that outlined by the sell program. Personally I do not use stop loss as the trade does not involve the use of financial leverage, however if a level for the stop loss were to be identified, this would be below the buy program. For any clearly ask me.
NASDAQ:ILMNLong
by enr_monaco
$NASDAQ:ACHC - analysis of annual cot levelsNASDAQ:ACHC Please remember that this idea does not constitute investment advice. After a personal analysis of the institutional value of the COT, buy and sell program levels are outlined. Since the asset is at its minimum, the idea is to wait for the price to head inside the buy program, wait for a swing to form in the direction of the target level (the first sell program) and open the trade at the break of this. The position is medium-term (from 1-2 weeks to 1-2 months); without financial leverage and the maximum profit area is that outlined by the sell program. Personally I do not use stop loss as the trade does not involve the use of financial leverage, however if a level for the stop loss were to be identified, this would be below the buy program. For any clearly ask me.
NASDAQ:ACHCLong
by enr_monaco
$NYSE:WOLF - analysis of annual cot levelsPlease remember that this idea does not constitute investment advice. NYSE:WOLF After a personal analysis of the institutional value of the COT, buy and sell program levels are outlined. Since the asset is at its minimum, the idea is to wait for the price to head inside the buy program, wait for a swing to form in the direction of the target level (the first sell program) and open the trade at the break of this. The position is medium-term (from 1-2 weeks to 1-2 months); without financial leverage and the maximum profit area is that outlined by the sell program. Personally I do not use stop loss as the trade does not involve the use of financial leverage, however if a level for the stop loss were to be identified, this would be below the buy program. For any clearly ask me.
NYSE:WOLFLong
by enr_monaco
7
Cotton Futures: Decoding the Matrix of Market ForcesCotton, a seemingly unassuming commodity, is quietly aligning for a significant bullish move. But remember—this is not a prompt for reckless action. The entry is reserved for those who wait for the Daily timeframe to confirm the trend change. The Codes of the Cotton Conspiracy Code #1: The Commercial COT Index Commercials are not merely dabbling—they are at an extreme in positioning, maxed out over a 26-week lookback. Their hands are heavy with longs, signaling a brewing storm that only the wise will prepare for. Code #2: All-Time Extreme Positioning For the first time since 2019, commercials hold their maximum long positions. Unlike 2019, these positions are at higher prices, implying deeper convictions. Meanwhile, Large Speculators are excessively short—a telltale sign that the tide may soon turn. Both are at an all-time extreme in positioning. Code #3: Valuation Metrics Cotton stands undervalued against the pillars of Gold, DXY, and Treasuries. The market’s mispricing is your opportunity, should you dare to seize it. Code #4: Open Interest Analysis Open Interest (OI) has been climbing steadily, a silent crescendo. Who is fueling this growth? The commercials—those orchestrators of market moves—are discreetly accumulating, signaling an impending bullish wave. Code #5: ADX Over 60—The Endgame Approaches The ADX has breached the critical threshold of 60, a harbinger of trend exhaustion. Confirmation lies in the ADX’s roll-over or the Large Speculators’ retreat from their short positions. Code #6: Spread Divergence As prices sink to new lows, the spread between the front and next month contracts defiantly rises—commercials are eager for the front month, a potent sign when paired with extreme positioning. Bonus Codes: Hidden Layers of Accumulation Insider Acc Index and ProGo hint at quiet accumulation. Momentum shows bullish divergence, %R enters a buy zone, and the oversold stochastic adds another layer of intrigue. The Flaws in the System Yet, no system is without its anomalies. Small Speculators are excessively long—a peculiar deviation, given their knack for misjudging bottoms. This anomaly presents two scenarios: a merciless long squeeze forcing out the naive, or a rare stroke of luck for the masses. Moreover, while True Seasonal is misaligned, remember that seasonals reflect historical ghosts, while positioning unveils the machinations of today's masters. Always lean towards positioning as your guide, not seasonals. The Red Pill Awaits The stage is set. The players are in position. The market whispers secrets only a few are willing to hear. Cotton’s matrix is laid bare—whether you act or remain a spectator is the choice only you can make. But beware, the rabbit hole goes deeper than you think. Are you ready to follow? Choose wisely.
ICEUS:CTH2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
1
EUR/USD Poised for Reversal from Key Demand Zone – Smart Money A📊 Market Outlook: Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone EUR/USD is approaching a critical daily demand zone (highlighted in yellow), where we anticipate a potential trend reversal. The technical and fundamental data suggest that a buying opportunity is emerging. 🔹 Why Am I Bullish on EUR? ✅ Retail Traders Overloaded on Shorts – The retail crowd is excessively short, which often leads to short squeezes when smart money steps in. ✅ Non-Commercial Traders are Overly Short – CFTC data reveals that large speculative traders hold extreme short positions, signaling a potential contrarian move. ✅ Commercial Traders Accumulating Longs – The smart money (hedgers & institutions) are heavily long on EUR, suggesting value buying at these levels. ✅ Key Demand Zone in Play – Price is approaching a major liquidity pocket, historically acting as strong support and a reversal zone. 🔹 Technical Levels to Watch 📍 Support Zone: Yellow Area On Chart 📈 My Trade Bias: Waiting for confirmation signs in the demand zone. Looking for bullish structure shifts & momentum buyers stepping in. 🚀 What do you think? Will EUR/USD bounce from here or break lower? Comment below! 👇📩 #EURUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #OrderFlow #Liquidity #PriceAction #CFTCData #ForexTrading #FXAnalysis
CME:6E1!Long
by Inevitable_Trader
EURUSD D1 BEARISH, RETURN TO PARITY ?Lot of confluence factors indicate that EUR is going to give way to USD COT Delta = black line dropping hard, Institutions are heavily short YIELD Differential = green/red line, nosedive lower LIQUIDITY Differential = orange line = FED more restrictive than ECB ? GAPS = Next Weekly gap is 150 pips lower @ 1.01 = Yearly S1 PIVOTS = Price below Yearly PP, heading for Yearly S1 @ 1.0050 = GAP Low FUNDAMENTALS = USD beats EUR on pretty much all metrics ECONOMICS = Germany, the EU-powerhouse, in multi-year recession POLITICS = Trust is fading, most EU-countries (will) vote for change Looking for a drop in price to 1.01, probably return to parity before spring
Short
by xtrader1
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry. The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020. I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Data The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again. - Economic growth The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025. In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market. www.goldmansachs.com - Interest rates Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy. POSITIONING - COT (Commitment of Traders) Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side. www.tradingster.com . Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions. SEASONALITY We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence. Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline. Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break. Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price. Thanks for your attention!
Short
by Riikkss
Does the Canadian dollar have a bullish surprise up its sleeve?This is the question I am asking myself as we head into 2025. CAD has been the weakest major for some time now based on the BOC's easing cycle, and we saw a record level of net-short exposure against it in August, and another surge of shorts in November. This strikes me as a stale trade that is vulnerable to a shakeout, and it might not require a particularly large catalyst for CAD bears to capitulate and send USD/CAD lower. MS
Short
by CityIndex
COT Data at Extremes: A Short Setup in the Making?OT Report Insights: Preparing for a Short The upcoming COT report will be pivotal. If large speculators show signs of taking profits, I’m planning a short entry next week. Here’s why: Positioning at Extremes: Despite speculators adding longs for 10+ consecutive weeks, we’re now hovering around the 52-week high in contracts. Such extreme levels often signal potential for a reversal or significant market moves. Timing Is Everything: It’s not about jumping in immediately but waiting for the right moment and the ideal setup. The plan is straightforward: analyze the next COT report, confirm if speculators are scaling back, and act decisively when the conditions align.
Short
by OssianH
1
Large speculators are aggressively taking profitsLarge speculators are aggressively taking profits, which raises an important question: How will the price react? There are two likely scenarios: The short sentiment remains dominant, but profit-taking could trigger a short-term bullish run as positions are closed and the market reacts. Speculators could shift their stance, but will they go fully long? At this point, we just don’t know. If stronger data emerges to support our thesis by Friday, next week could set up for a promising outlook. Staying flexible and prepared for either scenario will be key.
Long
by OssianH