Get started

COT

Long-term Platinum AnalysisThe chart shows that the price of platinum is at a very low level, according to the COT report analysis, it shows that compared to the previous publication, the number of open sales positions increased, but it is much smaller activity of sellers than in previous reports. This may mean that the downward trend is coming to an end. An additional factor to buy can be the fact that the price is at an important level of support. This in combination with COT reports is a good basis to buy. Warning This is a long-term forecast, it does not mean that the increase will take place immediately. In the case of long-term investment, I encourage you to use ETFs, for example PPLT.US (ETFS Physical Platinum Shares)
TVC:PLATINUMLong
by Suminski
$CADJPY short- Trading the Opec Campaign into 22nd JuneLast week options volume pointed at increased downside protection. Which translated into a yen rally or cadjpy drop. This theme is still in play on top of that. opec is relaxing supply cuts and thus driving oil lower over the coming month, which will drag CAD$ with it. I line with that we had a weekly bearish engulfing bar pointing at 82-80 area. For more free educational material and free Trade of the Week visit SpeculatorsTrading
Short
by SpeculatorsTrading
most recent update for gj long idea.hello all here we see gj is starting a clear long pattern. to hit the upside 618 fib to give a two time hit of the top and bottom symmetrical triangle or pennant if you like that. i have used mfi, support and resistance, a special cot indicator, triangle pattern, and double bottom for my theory. Therefore as the triangle is tightening we may only see a move to the 6.18 so we need to be careful on this trade. if it breaks out it will only be in my opinion to form a lower high and to add resistance areas. we will need to see a clean break for a long term long or short before we get crazy. HAPPY TRADING.
Long
by JohnnyFBrensinger
US Dollar No DemandThe US Dollar has been in distribution with large speculators unwinding their net long positions (COT Report) that had been building since mid 2000. Currently the longs and shorts are matching each other and there is no commitment in the US Dollar. The volume signature has also decreased. The correlation with the 10 year bond yields has also shown a significant divergence especially since the start of 2018. Bond yield are increasing but this has not stimulated investment into the Dollar. If this bond yields continues to rise it could stimulate investors as the benefits could out-way the risk. With all the uncertainty in the market large speculators are playing the waiting game. However, when there is a contraction in a market a big move can be expected and when the large players have clarity on which side they are committing we can ride the wave with them. The divergence in bond rate differentials can be seen in dollar pairs and could create opportunities when correcting.
DShort
by SteynTrade
2
Silver: Very interesting junctureMonthly and daily charts show Silver is oversold here, and turning up...The confluence of technical signals and contrarian potential of this trade make it extremely interesting and definitely worth a try. If our long positions work, we could end up riding a massive uptrend to $25+-, or even higher, provided we first go higher and break above the monthly modes on chart, to eventually signal the uptrend to $25+ as per the chart. This signal isn't yet active, but is within the realm of the possible and logical. I'd reccomend keeping some exposure to gold and silver, specially now, given the charts and sentiment. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
15
POSSIBLE 1000 PIPS MOVE COMINGThe COT report has shown an institutional decrease in Long exposure for the past 4 weeks on the GBP giving us a retracement from previous peak on the week of Jan 23rd. Despite this we can expect the pound to regain strength given what looks to be some hedging going on in the report and the JPY weakness. I'm definitely not 100% sold on the long idea as you will hear near the end of the video but its definitely something i'm looking forward to if the conditions look right. Let me know what you think :)
Long
by MarioAlzuri
Large player Positions for CAD, CHF, GBP, JPY, EUR, AUD 1/23/18Hello everyone I have decided to share my analysis of the release of the U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION weekly report. Every week I will break down the long format of the CFTC's report and translate it into short hand for people trading Forex. This weekly report will detail what large speculators such as hedge funds and banks are doing in the market so we can compare our own ideas and strategies against what larger institutions who consistently make a profit are doing. For example if you think you should short the EUR/USD but last week the guys at the big boy's table just dumped 2 trillion in short positions and opened 1.8 trillion in long positions and on top of that the big players are already 26 trillion long to 11 trillion short. It would be nice to have such information before you bet against the great minds at Goldman Sachs and all those hedge fund geniuses. All positions are correlated to the US dollar. These positions only include entity's within the United States such as Goldman Sachs and other large speculators. ========================== EUR (format in trillion Euro's ) Total 32 long 14 short Last week +0.32 Short +0.97 long Outlook: Long term: Strong Buy Short term: medium Buy ========================== GBP (format in trillions GBP) 6.2 Long 4.1 Short Last week +0.9 long +0.5 short Outlook: Long term: medium buy Short term: medium buy ========================== CAD (format in trillions CAD) 6.9 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0.8 long +0.2 short Outlook: Long term: Low buy Short term: medium buy ========================== CHF (format in trillions CHF) 1.7 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0 long +0.12 short Outlook: Long term: strong sell Short term: strong sell ========================== JPY (format in trillions JPY) 465 Long 2001 Short Last week -11 long +32 short Outlook: Long term:very strong sell Short term:very strong sell ========================== AUD (format in trillions AUD) 6.3 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0.13 long +0.06 short Outlook: Long term: medium Buy Short term: medium Buy
by malikiie
3
How to filter noise out of Technicals and Fundamentals part 2 Part 2 Fundamental noise filtering I place far more weight on fundamental analysis then technical. At first I thought it was useless as half the news or analysts would say one thing and the other half would say the opposite. the trick is to only look at sources that can reliably and logically be shown to have a impact on the market. Who has an impact on the market: 1: Speculators (yep just speculators not the news or the actual state of an economy) while that statement is not exactly true it seems to be a reliable self fulfilling prophecy lets take a look at large speculators positions from 2002 until 2018 compared to a bar chart. i65.tinypic.com this picture shows the weekly CFTC commitment of traders reports from 2002 to 2018 correlated into a line chart under a corresponding bar chart. The arrow in the picture points to a turning point where the speculators (green line) went from net short to net long. what happened? The market shot up like a rocket. outside of consolidation periods the market just about always drops or gains right after this happens just looking at the EUR it ALWAYS marks the end of a trend without fail. Its almost eerie how accurate the CFTC comittment of traders reports are at predicting trend changes. where do we get the COT report and how do we use it? Step 1: go to www.cftc.gov step 2: click on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and scroll past the butter, cows and logs to the EURO FX i67.tinypic.com step 3: look at the important parts of the EURO FX data. i67.tinypic.com 1: the date of reported positions 2:Non-Commercials (people investing to make money. These are the people who have so much money in positions they have to report it to the CFTC weekly. people and company's with that kind of money have far more resources to base their decisions off of then me and if most of them think in one direction then odds are most of them are right. As we can see on the chart in the picture most of them went net short not during but before the euro crashed in 2014.) 3: On the left long positions on the right short positions. (far more long then short this is a definite uptrend.) 4: changes from last week. very very important for positioning in immediate furtue. For example on the 9th we got this report i66.tinypic.com what happened directly after was an uptrend. look for changes in net long and short positions. An increase in net long from last week or a decrease in net short from last week will likely predict an uptrend in a day or 2. sometimes the trend already happened by the time you get the report. The COT report is the only fundamental analysis I use. Why: 1. conflict of interest. most of the large news company's are owned by banks ergo any information I gather based on news is biased. 2. Education I grew up on fishing boats in Alaska and currently drive a forklift all day. forming a accurate opinion based on economic data on my own is beyond my level of education. Lets recognize our weak points and not pretend we can be on par with someone who has spent years in college for economics. 3. Retail traders are 90% wrong and I am a retail trader lets take a quick look at how Retail traders net positions look. www.oanda.com as we can see with the EUR/USD 63% of retail traders are trying to short a market that has been going up for months non-stop and they have been for months its usually worse then 63% too lul.
Education
by malikiie
Trade Idea of The Week In COT!First off, please note that I am a swing trader. When I enter a position I am looking to hold anywhere from 1 day to 3 months depending on the momentum, but the average is around 7 market days for my hold time. Here are some quick bullet points on why I like this stock for this week: -This sector (food and beverage) as a whole looks coiled and ready to go -The weekly chart on COT is also looking strong in an upward trend and it is pulled back to the moving average. -The price is beginning to move higher out of a squeeze which can make for some explosive moves higher We believe in trading with the overall trend and the sector strength at our backs. This stock is a perfect example of a high probability setup that we are looking for! Lets see what happens this week!
CLong
by StrengthTrading
11
EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference. We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress. So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated. In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical: 1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high. 2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high. 3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high. 4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart. 5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below. Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Education
by DanV
14