Dax in euros and Dax in dollar terms... CFTC COT as percentage of open interest of EURUSD non commercial futures positioning... EURUSD analysis, DAX and DAX in dollar analysis...
COT
NZDCAD Short with COT SentimentFX_IDC:NZDCAD
COT data suggests NZD bearish and CAD bullish sentiment. A short NZDCAD entry zone is identified by the yellow box. Position will be split with half at 0.9 and remaining at 0.9090 area. Careful entry as near bottom of monthly channel - but sentiment is favorable. Take profits at 8750 and 8630.
All published ideas are for educational and informational purposes only. Note specific entry ideas posted here may be part of a larger position and risk profile held by the author. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Practical Exercise - COT ReportCOT report stands for Commitment of Traders report.
It tells us about where the Big Boys are placing their ‘bets’.
The COT is published weekly on Friday and reflects Tuesday’s data.
Practical Exercise
1) Refer to the COT report data given below.
2) Write down your interpretation of the data.
3) What are your observations and what they mean to you as a trader.
4) Post your exercise on the comment section in the thread.
EUR/JPY possible 900+ Move to the down side short setupEUR/JPY COT workings gives us a divergence of -10.96 short I am very bullish the JPY and bearish EUR already in short in this one.
If you want to come in later you can wait until price breaks the 20 moving average of the bollinger bands I will add more to my position once this breaks.
Please comment below.
US 10 year Bond yield / note .. preparing for fed hike ... Analysis of important data ametrics for 13 December fed rate hike based on fedwatch - fed funds futures - > www.cmegroup.com
COTs data used: non commercial long and short data as % of open interest ...
ES_F CFTC COT %IO NON COMM SPREADSAnalisys of futures positions on ES_F and days since positive (long > short) and negative (long < short) ...
EURCHF Short possible 640+pipsAfter being stopped out on my first entry on EURCHF I will sell again at 1.16351 I am expecting a big move to the downside, with COT Divergence peeking up to 13.51 for the pair and a possible move to risk off on CHF I am very confident that this pair will give me some good profit.
This is a high probability trade with a Risk Reward ratio of 1:4.
Please comment any questions below I will be happy to reply.
Happy Trading everyone.
USDCAD Bullish possible 500pip moveHi I am long USDCAD COT Commercial traders are still at an extreme bearish position on the CAD meaning that USDCAD is going to go up.
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of
10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) and some COT analysis US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of
10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) and some COT analysisUS Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of
10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
Emini S&P 500 f curve 3 months and COT non commercial spreadsSimple analysis of es_f futures contracts spreads and non commercial commitment of traders positioning .... Looks a bit stretched for bulls.
USDJPY Short possible 500 pip+USD/JPY Short with a 500 pip possible profit.
Commercial traders (hedgers) are extremely long the JPY against the USD, they are at the same extreme they where in July 2017 against Non Commercials (Speculators) which are extremely short.
We always go with commercial traders smart money to get the odds on our side.
NATURAL GAS is driving for $3.550?Bounce from critical zone (failure of correction) @2.520 and solid spike on OPEN INTEREST last week should be sign of strenght.
EURO seems to be stronger next couples of weeks for meVery agresive buy commercials from 30.11.2015 with first profit taking @1.1378 still in play?
Trapped traders - how to use the commitments of traders report Before reading this I want people to understand that this kind of trade doesn't always work (NO TRADING SYSTEM DOES) so if this single trade doesn't work, don't lose confidence in the technique - it has served me extremely well and I have used it many times before. Both for USDJPY (2 ideas) and USDCAD (1 idea) - you can find these ideas on my page.
Links to those ideas
(UCAD was positioning hugely long)
You can find the commitments of traders report on this page (www.cmegroup.com) every Friday. It reflects the current positions of forex futures traders in Chicago's Mercantile Exchange on the Tuesday of that week.
You want to see the "leveraged" positions - these are CTAs and hedge funds - the people like you and me that are speculating on these prices with the objective of making returns; usually with leverage.
This is last Friday's report for AUDUSD.
prnt.sc
Note how Long (blue) positions have been rising.
On 18/7 the net position was 45k LONG, on 8/8 the net position is 75k LONG.
So between these two dates, we know that 30,000 long positions were opened. The price on 18/7 was 0.7916 and on 8/8 it was 0.7911. Those positions were therefore opened above 0.7900.
The current price is 0.7820 and that means that all of those positions are experiencing a draw down of AT LEAST 80 pips (>1%). They are trapped traders.
If price continues to move down, at some point those people are going to get out of those longs because the draw down will be too much for them to take.
Getting out of a long = going short => price moving down = move people have to exit their longs = going short => price moving down etc.
So just go short and you can benefit from this.
UJ LongLong based on trendline 3rd touch
Additionally supported by COT data 80% Non-Comm Inst. Reportables Long USDJPY.
(too late but will edit with a better write up later)
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
See EIA report charts at my facebook page :
Analysis of production, consumption and reserves of oil and oil On April 11, a fresh STEO report comes out, so you should wait for the updated forecast for the oil market from an official source. Conclusions on this report will be published in the blog www.cofutrading.com. But at the moment the situation is as follows: OPEC reduces production, and the US increases it. But along with the growth in production, which is accompanied by an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the US, oil consumption is also increasing. Exports are also high. Despite of inreasing us oil stocks (which is quite normal for a given time of the year), the growth rate of reserves is low, it is lower than last year and below the average for 5 years of value. That in general is bullish (at least for me). Demand for gasoline is high, demand for distillate is also high, so refineries will continue to "consume" a sufficient amount of oil, absorbing the growth of supply. Judging by CFTC COT reports, as of March 28, funds reduced their extremely bullish position. I do not attach high importance to these reports, I can only say that the long lines have been dropped, so the way for entering new long positions is open. I continue to adhere to the neutral-bullish direction in the US oil market, but before the opening of new positions I will wait for a new STEO report from the EIA.
COT signal directional change for coffee?Looking to trade coffee long with stops under previous cycle low for conservative risk. Target upper TL , allow for fluctuations of price with an accommodative stop management in order to achieve the desired target.
NZD/JPY, DAY CHART, SHORT (18-FEB-2017)From the Price Action, there are more selling
pressure than buying pressure in this consolidation pattern.
From COT Report,
For JPY, there are more non-commercial positions
added to long side.
From both Price Action and COT Report, there is
confluence that NZD/JPY might go down further.
Here are 2 trading plans for you:
1. When the price break the support level, short
2. If the price pull back to previous resistance level,
wait for bearish signal to short
EUR/CHF, DAY CHART, SHORT (18-FEB-2017)200-EMA is pointing downward and prices are below
200-EMA, it mean the long term trend is on the
bearish side.
20 & 50-EMA also trending downward.
Now there is descending triangle consolidation
pattern, trying to push the price down the
"Buyer's Stop Loss Position".
Once this level was broken, expected the price
will fall lower.
From price action, in the consolidation pattern,
the selling pressure is greater than buying pressure.
From COT report,
for CHF, more non-commercial positions added to
the long side
for EUR, more non-commerical positions added to
the short side.
Trend Following + Price Action + COT report
are confluence to short EUR/CHF pair.
Here are 2 trading pairs for you:
1. To short when price break the "Buyer's stop
loss position"
2. If price pull back to previous resistance level,
wait for bearish signal to short
