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COT

Large player Positions for CAD, CHF, GBP, JPY, EUR, AUD 1/23/18Hello everyone I have decided to share my analysis of the release of the U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION weekly report. Every week I will break down the long format of the CFTC's report and translate it into short hand for people trading Forex. This weekly report will detail what large speculators such as hedge funds and banks are doing in the market so we can compare our own ideas and strategies against what larger institutions who consistently make a profit are doing. For example if you think you should short the EUR/USD but last week the guys at the big boy's table just dumped 2 trillion in short positions and opened 1.8 trillion in long positions and on top of that the big players are already 26 trillion long to 11 trillion short. It would be nice to have such information before you bet against the great minds at Goldman Sachs and all those hedge fund geniuses. All positions are correlated to the US dollar. These positions only include entity's within the United States such as Goldman Sachs and other large speculators. ========================== EUR (format in trillion Euro's ) Total 32 long 14 short Last week +0.32 Short +0.97 long Outlook: Long term: Strong Buy Short term: medium Buy ========================== GBP (format in trillions GBP) 6.2 Long 4.1 Short Last week +0.9 long +0.5 short Outlook: Long term: medium buy Short term: medium buy ========================== CAD (format in trillions CAD) 6.9 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0.8 long +0.2 short Outlook: Long term: Low buy Short term: medium buy ========================== CHF (format in trillions CHF) 1.7 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0 long +0.12 short Outlook: Long term: strong sell Short term: strong sell ========================== JPY (format in trillions JPY) 465 Long 2001 Short Last week -11 long +32 short Outlook: Long term:very strong sell Short term:very strong sell ========================== AUD (format in trillions AUD) 6.3 Long 4.6 Short Last week +0.13 long +0.06 short Outlook: Long term: medium Buy Short term: medium Buy
by malikiie
3
How to filter noise out of Technicals and Fundamentals part 2 Part 2 Fundamental noise filtering I place far more weight on fundamental analysis then technical. At first I thought it was useless as half the news or analysts would say one thing and the other half would say the opposite. the trick is to only look at sources that can reliably and logically be shown to have a impact on the market. Who has an impact on the market: 1: Speculators (yep just speculators not the news or the actual state of an economy) while that statement is not exactly true it seems to be a reliable self fulfilling prophecy lets take a look at large speculators positions from 2002 until 2018 compared to a bar chart. i65.tinypic.com this picture shows the weekly CFTC commitment of traders reports from 2002 to 2018 correlated into a line chart under a corresponding bar chart. The arrow in the picture points to a turning point where the speculators (green line) went from net short to net long. what happened? The market shot up like a rocket. outside of consolidation periods the market just about always drops or gains right after this happens just looking at the EUR it ALWAYS marks the end of a trend without fail. Its almost eerie how accurate the CFTC comittment of traders reports are at predicting trend changes. where do we get the COT report and how do we use it? Step 1: go to www.cftc.gov step 2: click on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and scroll past the butter, cows and logs to the EURO FX i67.tinypic.com step 3: look at the important parts of the EURO FX data. i67.tinypic.com 1: the date of reported positions 2:Non-Commercials (people investing to make money. These are the people who have so much money in positions they have to report it to the CFTC weekly. people and company's with that kind of money have far more resources to base their decisions off of then me and if most of them think in one direction then odds are most of them are right. As we can see on the chart in the picture most of them went net short not during but before the euro crashed in 2014.) 3: On the left long positions on the right short positions. (far more long then short this is a definite uptrend.) 4: changes from last week. very very important for positioning in immediate furtue. For example on the 9th we got this report i66.tinypic.com what happened directly after was an uptrend. look for changes in net long and short positions. An increase in net long from last week or a decrease in net short from last week will likely predict an uptrend in a day or 2. sometimes the trend already happened by the time you get the report. The COT report is the only fundamental analysis I use. Why: 1. conflict of interest. most of the large news company's are owned by banks ergo any information I gather based on news is biased. 2. Education I grew up on fishing boats in Alaska and currently drive a forklift all day. forming a accurate opinion based on economic data on my own is beyond my level of education. Lets recognize our weak points and not pretend we can be on par with someone who has spent years in college for economics. 3. Retail traders are 90% wrong and I am a retail trader lets take a quick look at how Retail traders net positions look. www.oanda.com as we can see with the EUR/USD 63% of retail traders are trying to short a market that has been going up for months non-stop and they have been for months its usually worse then 63% too lul.
Education
by malikiie
Trade Idea of The Week In COT!First off, please note that I am a swing trader. When I enter a position I am looking to hold anywhere from 1 day to 3 months depending on the momentum, but the average is around 7 market days for my hold time. Here are some quick bullet points on why I like this stock for this week: -This sector (food and beverage) as a whole looks coiled and ready to go -The weekly chart on COT is also looking strong in an upward trend and it is pulled back to the moving average. -The price is beginning to move higher out of a squeeze which can make for some explosive moves higher We believe in trading with the overall trend and the sector strength at our backs. This stock is a perfect example of a high probability setup that we are looking for! Lets see what happens this week!
CLong
by StrengthTrading
11
EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update In my previous chart of EURUSD, you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference. We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress. So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated. In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical: 1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high. 2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high. 3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high. 4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart. 5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below. Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Education
by DanV
14
EUR & YEN Futures - Use of Commitment of Traders data Commodity & Futures Trading Commission gather data from various Exchanges and compile which are then released and are available on their Websites - www.cftc.gov Commitment of Traders Data = COT (abberiviation) These data are released on Friday of Each Week after Market Closes. They are based on Positions as close of Tuesday of that week. These are compiled to show 3 main groups which are: Commercials = Banks, Broker/Dealers (Hedging the Risk), Producers, Wholesalers, Or Commodity Users – Either looking to Hedge Risk or Receive or Send Delivery Speculators – which are: Non-Commercials = Money Managers, Hedge/Leveraged Fund Mangers, who are Speculators and are not looking to for delivery or receiving one on settlement day Non-Reportable = Still large traders, but a whose positions falls below the threshed to be classes as Non-Commercial Non-Commercials have Research Departments manned by Fundamental and Technical Analysts. These are then use by their trader. Therefore their positions reflect both the Fundamental and Technical analysis and can be viewed as Hybrid. Their sudden change from week to week of significant amount or percentage and their overall net long or short compared with historical behaviour can be used as what might be deemed as relative extreme together with Open Interest and Technical Analysis can provide interesting and useful insight in the strength of the trend or possible reversal. See the linked EURUSD chart and a video publication of Oil for further details on how I have used them. Below is a link of examples of the weekly data released for Futures for respective Instrument: drive.google.com I hope it will helps you in your own application of this to your Technical Analysis. Thank you for viewing my video and welcome comments or questions. DanV
Education
by DanV
8
NZDCAD Short with COT SentimentFX_IDC:NZDCAD COT data suggests NZD bearish and CAD bullish sentiment. A short NZDCAD entry zone is identified by the yellow box. Position will be split with half at 0.9 and remaining at 0.9090 area. Careful entry as near bottom of monthly channel - but sentiment is favorable. Take profits at 8750 and 8630. All published ideas are for educational and informational purposes only. Note specific entry ideas posted here may be part of a larger position and risk profile held by the author. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Short
by SwordandShieldForex