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Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Copper (HG) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries Bullish Spread Divergence Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
COMEX:HGZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG RBOB - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Long (RBOB) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in RBif we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small specs max short of last 3 years - bullish. OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI increase. When OI increases, we need to ask "who is causing the OI increase?". In this case, OI is increasing as Commercials add to long positioning, which is bullish. ADX: Paunch forming (but not confirmed until ADX rollover). This is a significant "end of trend" indication. Front Month Premium - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:RBV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet. True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Front Month Premium - Bullish Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money is Positioned to LONG Mexican Peso - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Mexican Peso (6M) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in 6M if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal Extreme Positioning: Commercials most long they have been since March 2023 - bullish. Small Specs most short they have been since June 2020 = bearish. OI Analysis: Very low OI. Generally, bottoms are associated with low OI (public and large specs are not interested in this market, while commercials heavily adding to longs is bullish) Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries = bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist , POIV, %R, Stochastic & Momentum (not yet confirmed) Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
CME:6MU2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Watch out as EURGBP net short positioning is reversing quicklyLeveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels. This might indicate a rally in EURGBP towards 0.86 after a recent 2 standard deviation selloff.
Long
by bearwhispering
West Texas Crude Oil Long COT and Technical Analysis West Texas Crude Oil Long Price has come back up to the important psychological level of 79.000. We can see that previously this area has acted as strong resistance and support. In August last year we saw price find support here before continuing upwards. Since November last year we have seen it act as an area of resistance. On last weeks close we had price finally break through after consolidating the past few weeks. Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority long West Texas Crude Oil. 103,350 long positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 53,597 shorts. Commercial Traders, who are in most cases contrarian to price, are relatively even. This should be taken into account when using COT for conformation. Geopolitical factors need to be considered. I prefer to leave these out of analysis as much as I can due to unintentional bias that comes with them, and the difficulty of quantifying them. However, when it comes to something like Oil, they often have to be at the forefront of analysis. The current Israel-Hamas conflict is one of the geopolitical factors at play here. While Israel has no dominant position in the Oil industry, Hamas links to Iran have created the possibility that the USA may harden its sanctions against Iran, the 4th largest Oil producer. The conflict against the Houthis is a major factor here. There is a concern these strikes will spill over and expand into a larger region wide conflict, heavily affecting the shipment, and therefore the price of Oil. Houthi links to Iran are also a concern, just as with the Israel-Hamas conflict. I will most likely take a position on Monday 50% of my usual size. If we can get a retest of 79.000 I will enter another 50% of my usual size. Holding this trade long-term, and moving my SL to follow new swing lows, is my current trade plan. If the two conflicts begin to cool however, it may be a good idea to look at closing my positions. If peace talks do commence for these conflicts, we will see Oil fall, but if the peace talks again amount to nothing, this would be a good opportunity to increase my position.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DedoAUS
Corn Short, Technical, Fundamental and COT Analysis Current Corn Short Entered originally, and admittedly prematurely, when we saw price touch the 61.8% fib retracement level. Entered a short position last month as price has been steadily falling since June last year. The falling price of corn is being caused by simply an overabundance of supply, and a lack of increased demand. On the supply side, we have seen Corn acreage in the USA increase by ~10%. At the same time, Brazil has also been growing record amounts of corn. One of the factors which lead to Corns high in 2022 was the Russo-Ukrainian war and Ukraine's inability to export their produce. This is simply not the case anymore, as of now, Ukrainian exports have begun to pick back up to pre-invasion levels. Demand has failed to increase with these pro-supply events. Over the past four years we have seen American cattle herds, who are the largest consumers of Corn, slowly shrinking to lows not seen since the 50s. This is mostly due to an increase in local droughts which have made it harder to graze cattle, a preferable alternative to cattle feed due to the cheaper costs. This has caused the overall demands for Corn to shrink as there are less cattle overall to consume Corn and Corn products due to the drought. Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority short Corn. 528,280 short positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 295,676 longs. Latest COT filings do show a slight increase in Net Positions (Longs-Shorts) compared to the previous. Possibly due to profit taking by Non-Commercials. My Entry was based on Technical analysis, mostly an apparent Fib retracement. I saw price close in the "Golden Zone" on the 27th of Feb and as I am heavily Bearish on Corn, took it as an opportunity to enter short. This entry was rather early and if I am closed, with my SL at 4.208, I will look to re-enter at a later date.
OANDA:CORNUSDShort
by DedoAUS
Basic Technical and COT Analysis on AUDUSD ShortAUDUSD Short Late/Re-entry Price has come back down to the last swing low/base made before what was essentially a two week bull run. We have broken past this area and come back to retest it. When price came back to retest this key zone, we saw it touch the 61.8% fib retracement level. Non-Commercial traders, as can be seen through COT filings, are a majority short AUDUSD. 128,816 short positions are currently held by Non-Coms vs 49,640 longs. Latest COT filings do show a slight increase in Net Positions (Longs-Shorts) compared to the previous. Possibly due to profit taking by Non-Commercials. Commercial Traders, who are in most cases contrarian to price, are a majority long. Commercials have 129,292 long positions open vs 39,515 shorts. My original entry was around 0.65491 on the 21st of Feb close. My SL was at 0.66249, just above what was then the swing high, but have now moved to 0.66008, just above the latest swing high.
Short
by DedoAUS
GBPZAR November 19th, 2023The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the week ending November 14, 2023, shows that there are signs of weakness for the British pound (GBP). Non-commercial traders, which are typically hedge funds and other large institutional investors, reduced their long positions in GBPZAR by 4,735 contracts. This was the largest weekly decrease in long positions since the week ending March 1, 2023. However, commercial traders still have a net long position in GBPZAR, which suggests that they are still generally bullish on the pair. The decrease in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders suggests that there is a growing number of traders who are expecting the GBP to weaken against the ZAR. This could be due to a number of factors, including: The ongoing economic uncertainty in the United Kingdom. The UK economy is facing a number of challenges, including rising inflation, interest rates, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These factors could lead to a decline in demand for British goods and services, which could weaken the GBP. The strengthening of the South African rand. The South African rand has been strengthening in recent weeks due to a number of factors, including rising commodity prices and the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar. This could make the ZAR a more attractive investment for foreign investors, which could further weaken the GBP. Based on the COT report, it is likely that the GBP will continue to weaken against the ZAR in the near term. Traders should be prepared for further declines in the pair. source: www.cftc.gov
Short
by DNP-FX
USD/JPY: The case for a bearish reversal buildsUSD/JPY has delivered a decent trend for bulls so far this year, having risen 14% since the January low. Yet we have been fully aware that net-short exposure to yen futures has approached a historical extreme as USD/JPT prices rose towards 145. Incidentally, 145 was the upper range of the liquidity gap we mentioned in a previous article which has now been filled, and USD/JPY has printed a bearish engulfing week at the 145 handle. With risks of yen intervention very real and traders positioned so strongly to the short side of yen futures, we suspect USD/JPY is at or very near an important inflection point. What could make the difference between a natural pullback against the YTD trend or a sharp reversal could be incoming economic data from the US and Japan. A softer-than-expected CPI report for the US could likely help push USD/JPY lower, but the real bearish catalyst could be if the BOJ finally get serious about abandoning their YCC (yield curve control). Over the near-term, a move to the 140 and 138 handles seem achievable over the coming weeks as part of a much-deserved retracement against a one-sided trend so far this year.
Short
by CityIndex
Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of June 13, 2023. Here's a breakdown of the data: Bitcoin Futures (Code-133741): Total Open Interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 10,086 contracts Short Positions: 9,343 contracts Spreading Positions: 1,875 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 122 contracts Short Positions: 1,309 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 12,083 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 12,527 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 1,168 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 724 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Decreased by 20 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 6 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 314 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Decreased by 65 contracts Commercial Short Positions: Decreased by 74 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 229 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 246 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 4 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Decreased by 21 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 76.1% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 70.5% of open interest Commercial Long Positions: 0.9% of open interest Commercial Short Positions: 9.9% of open interest Number of Traders in Each Category: Non-Commercial Traders: 38 traders Commercial Traders: 54 traders Percentage of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders: Long Positions: 66.5% (4 or less traders) and 73.6% (8 or less traders) Short Positions: 33.9% (4 or less traders) and 48.9% (8 or less traders) Micro Bitcoin Futures (Code-133742): Total Open Interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 4,685 contracts Short Positions: 6,160 contracts Spreading Positions: 593 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 188 contracts Short Positions: 0 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 5,466 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 6,753 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 2,449 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 1,162 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Increased by 178 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 95 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 139 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Increased by 16 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 333 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 234 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 18 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Increased by 81 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 59.2% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 77.8% For Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold the majority of the open interest, with 76.1% of the long positions and 70.5% of the short positions. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 0.9% of the long positions and 9.9% of the short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 38, while there are 54 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 66.5% of the long positions and 33.9% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 73.6% of the long positions and 48.9% of the short positions. For Micro Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold 59.2% of the long positions and 77.8% of the short positions, making them the dominant group. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 2.4% of the long positions and no short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 50, while there are 34 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 26.5% of the long positions and 52.4% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 35.4% of the long positions and 68.2% of the short positions. Key Points to note: Speculators (Non-Commercial Traders) hold the majority of the open interest in both Bitcoin Futures and Micro Bitcoin Futures. Commercial Traders have a smaller presence in terms of open interest. The number of traders is higher for Bitcoin Futures compared to Micro Bitcoin Futures. The largest traders have a significant influence on the market, holding a considerable portion of the positions. Please note that the COT report provides insights into the positions held by different types of traders but does not indicate future price direction or market trends. It is one of the tools used to analyze market sentiment and positioning.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wakandian
jUNE 6TH COT report screenshot Micro Bitcoin. Let's analyze the data. For Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023: The total open interest is 13,026 contracts. Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 10,106 contracts, compared to 9,337 contracts in the previous report. Commercial traders hold a net short position of 1,383 contracts, compared to 1,561 contracts in the previous report. The net change in commitments from the previous report shows an increase in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders. The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 77.6% long and 71.7% short, while commercial traders represent 10.6% long and 12.0% short. The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 58.0% and 33.7% of the net positions, respectively. For Micro Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023: The total open interest is 7,600 contracts. Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 4,507 contracts, compared to 6,065 contracts in the previous report. Commercial traders hold a net short position of 0 contracts, compared to 172 contracts in the previous report. The net change in commitments from the previous report shows a decrease in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders. The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 59.3% long and 79.8% short, while commercial traders represent 2.3% long and 6.0% short. The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 24.8% and 54.6% of the net positions, respectively. These figures provide insights into the sentiment and positioning of different trader groups in the Bitcoin futures market. However, please note that COT reports are just one of many factors to consider when analyzing market trends and making trading decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
4
SMT Look at EUR NZD AUD and GBP vs USDIn this video I take a look at 4 major pairs vs the USD, and a concept known as SMT Divergence, authored by ICT. The theory behind this being, that by comparing structure from similar periods, we can see which pairs "Smart Money" is accumulating. I've also briefly touched on "Net Positioning" of Leveraged Money (ie "Smart Money") based on today's newly released CoT Report. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
by mrjones2020
May 30th Cot report looks interesting Based on the COT report data, the changes in commercial positions are as follows: Long positions: Increased by 83 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 538 contracts To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = 83 - (-538) Net positions = 621 Therefore, the net positions for commercials are 621 contracts. It indicates an increase in net long positions for commercials, not net short positions. Based on the provided COT report data, the changes in non-commercial positions are as follows: Long positions: Decreased by 1,084 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 378 contracts To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = -1,084 - (-378) Net positions = -706 Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials are -706 contracts. It indicates a decrease in net long positions for non-commercials, but keep in mind that the value is negative, indicating a net short position for non-commercials in this case . Let's analyze the data for Bitcoin Micro (Code-133742) based on the provided COT report: Total open interest: 6,569 contracts Non-Commercial Positions: Long positions: 3,803 contracts Short positions: 5,543 contracts Spreading positions: 214 contracts Commercial Positions: Long positions: 145 contracts Short positions: 0 contracts Net Positions: To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = 3,803 - 5,543 Net positions = -1,740 Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials in Bitcoin Micro are -1,740 contracts, indicating a net short position. Changes from May 23, 2023: Long positions: Decreased by 2,596 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 2,412 contracts Percent of Open Interest: Non-commercial long positions: 57.9% of open interest Non-commercial short positions: 84.4% of open interest Commercial long positions: 3.3% of open interest Commercial short positions: 2.2% of open interest Number of Traders: Non-commercial traders: 50 Commercial traders: 31 Percent of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders: Long positions: 14.8% held by 4 or less traders, 24.4% held by 8 or less traders Short positions: 60.3% held by 4 or less traders, 72.7% held by 8 or less traders Overall, the COT report suggests that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin Micro have a net short position, and there has been a decrease in both long and short positions compared to the previous reporting period.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
3
Cot report data released last May 27thBased on the provided data from the CFTC's COT report for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 23, 2023, here is a detailed summary: Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 13,043 contracts Non-commercial traders: Long positions: 10,124 contracts Short positions: 9,231 contracts Spreading positions: 1,544 contracts Commercial traders: Long positions: 168 contracts Short positions: 1,413 contracts Net positions: Non-commercial net long position: 893 contracts Commercial net short position: 1,245 contracts Changes in commitments from May 16, 2023: Non-commercial traders: Increase of 69 contracts in long positions Increase of 187 contracts in short positions Commercial traders: Increase of 5 contracts in long positions Decrease of 213 contracts in short positions Micro Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 10,042 contracts Non-commercial traders: Long positions: 6,399 contracts Short positions: 7,955 contracts Spreading positions: 885 contracts Commercial traders: Long positions: 160 contracts Short positions: 0 contracts Net positions: Non-commercial net short position: 1,556 contracts Commercial net long position: 160 contracts Changes in commitments from May 16, 2023: Non-commercial traders: Increase of 76 contracts in long positions Increase of 155 contracts in short positions Decrease of 426 contracts in spreading positions Commercial traders : Decrease of 77 contracts in long positions No change in short positions In terms of open interest distribution, for Bitcoin futures: Non-commercial traders represent 90.7% of the total open interest, while commercial traders represent 9.3%. The largest four or less traders hold 63.3% of the total open interest, while the largest eight or less traders hold 71% of the total open interest. For Micro Bitcoin futures: Non-commercial traders represent 74.1% of the total open interest, while commercial traders represent 25.9%. The largest four or less traders hold 31.7% of the total open interest, while the largest eight or less traders hold 40.8% of the total open interest. the commercial traders in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 23, 2023, have a net short position of 1,245 contracts. Comparing this to the previous data, there has been an increase of 127 contracts in their net short position since May 16, 2023. This suggests that commercial traders have become slightly more bearish or less bullish in their outlook for Bitcoin futures. On the other hand, the non-commercial speculators have a net long position of 893 contracts as of May 23, 2023. Comparing this to the previous data, there has been an increase of 69 contracts in their net long position since May 16, 2023. This indicates that non-commercial speculators have become slightly more bullish or less bearish in their outlook for Bitcoin futures. Based on the provided data, we can analyze the open interest shifts from last week to determine the sentiment of the big traders (commercials) in the Bitcoin futures market. However, please note that the open interest shifts alone may not provide a conclusive indication of bullish or bearish sentiment, as they need to be considered in conjunction with other factors and market analysis. In the case of Bitcoin futures, the net change in commitments from May 16th, 2023, to May 23rd, 2023, for commercials shows an increase of 69 contracts in long positions and a decrease of 187 contracts in short positions. This net change suggests a slight shift towards a more bullish sentiment among commercials. It's important to remember that open interest shifts represent the changing positions of traders but do not provide information on the specific direction or magnitude of price movements. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of market sentiment, it's advisable to consider multiple factors such as technical analysis, market news, and broader market trends. Note that the day the commercial decrease the net long on btc micro we had a flash crash follow below.. Don't forget to like and share if you like what you are reading DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
2
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7