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USD/JPY: The case for a bearish reversal buildsUSD/JPY has delivered a decent trend for bulls so far this year, having risen 14% since the January low. Yet we have been fully aware that net-short exposure to yen futures has approached a historical extreme as USD/JPT prices rose towards 145. Incidentally, 145 was the upper range of the liquidity gap we mentioned in a previous article which has now been filled, and USD/JPY has printed a bearish engulfing week at the 145 handle. With risks of yen intervention very real and traders positioned so strongly to the short side of yen futures, we suspect USD/JPY is at or very near an important inflection point. What could make the difference between a natural pullback against the YTD trend or a sharp reversal could be incoming economic data from the US and Japan. A softer-than-expected CPI report for the US could likely help push USD/JPY lower, but the real bearish catalyst could be if the BOJ finally get serious about abandoning their YCC (yield curve control). Over the near-term, a move to the 140 and 138 handles seem achievable over the coming weeks as part of a much-deserved retracement against a one-sided trend so far this year.
Short
by CityIndex
Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of June 13, 2023. Here's a breakdown of the data: Bitcoin Futures (Code-133741): Total Open Interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 10,086 contracts Short Positions: 9,343 contracts Spreading Positions: 1,875 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 122 contracts Short Positions: 1,309 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 12,083 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 12,527 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 1,168 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 724 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Decreased by 20 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 6 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 314 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Decreased by 65 contracts Commercial Short Positions: Decreased by 74 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 229 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 246 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 4 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Decreased by 21 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 76.1% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 70.5% of open interest Commercial Long Positions: 0.9% of open interest Commercial Short Positions: 9.9% of open interest Number of Traders in Each Category: Non-Commercial Traders: 38 traders Commercial Traders: 54 traders Percentage of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders: Long Positions: 66.5% (4 or less traders) and 73.6% (8 or less traders) Short Positions: 33.9% (4 or less traders) and 48.9% (8 or less traders) Micro Bitcoin Futures (Code-133742): Total Open Interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 4,685 contracts Short Positions: 6,160 contracts Spreading Positions: 593 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 188 contracts Short Positions: 0 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 5,466 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 6,753 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 2,449 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 1,162 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Increased by 178 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 95 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 139 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Increased by 16 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 333 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 234 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 18 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Increased by 81 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 59.2% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 77.8% For Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold the majority of the open interest, with 76.1% of the long positions and 70.5% of the short positions. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 0.9% of the long positions and 9.9% of the short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 38, while there are 54 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 66.5% of the long positions and 33.9% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 73.6% of the long positions and 48.9% of the short positions. For Micro Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold 59.2% of the long positions and 77.8% of the short positions, making them the dominant group. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 2.4% of the long positions and no short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 50, while there are 34 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 26.5% of the long positions and 52.4% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 35.4% of the long positions and 68.2% of the short positions. Key Points to note: Speculators (Non-Commercial Traders) hold the majority of the open interest in both Bitcoin Futures and Micro Bitcoin Futures. Commercial Traders have a smaller presence in terms of open interest. The number of traders is higher for Bitcoin Futures compared to Micro Bitcoin Futures. The largest traders have a significant influence on the market, holding a considerable portion of the positions. Please note that the COT report provides insights into the positions held by different types of traders but does not indicate future price direction or market trends. It is one of the tools used to analyze market sentiment and positioning.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wakandian
jUNE 6TH COT report screenshot Micro Bitcoin. Let's analyze the data. For Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023: The total open interest is 13,026 contracts. Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 10,106 contracts, compared to 9,337 contracts in the previous report. Commercial traders hold a net short position of 1,383 contracts, compared to 1,561 contracts in the previous report. The net change in commitments from the previous report shows an increase in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders. The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 77.6% long and 71.7% short, while commercial traders represent 10.6% long and 12.0% short. The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 58.0% and 33.7% of the net positions, respectively. For Micro Bitcoin (Futures Only) on June 6, 2023: The total open interest is 7,600 contracts. Non-commercial traders (speculators) hold a net long position of 4,507 contracts, compared to 6,065 contracts in the previous report. Commercial traders hold a net short position of 0 contracts, compared to 172 contracts in the previous report. The net change in commitments from the previous report shows a decrease in net long positions held by non-commercial traders and a decrease in net short positions held by commercial traders. The percentage of open interest represented by non-commercial traders is 59.3% long and 79.8% short, while commercial traders represent 2.3% long and 6.0% short. The largest traders (4 or less and 8 or less) hold 24.8% and 54.6% of the net positions, respectively. These figures provide insights into the sentiment and positioning of different trader groups in the Bitcoin futures market. However, please note that COT reports are just one of many factors to consider when analyzing market trends and making trading decisions.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
4
SMT Look at EUR NZD AUD and GBP vs USDIn this video I take a look at 4 major pairs vs the USD, and a concept known as SMT Divergence, authored by ICT. The theory behind this being, that by comparing structure from similar periods, we can see which pairs "Smart Money" is accumulating. I've also briefly touched on "Net Positioning" of Leveraged Money (ie "Smart Money") based on today's newly released CoT Report. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
by mrjones2020
May 30th Cot report looks interesting Based on the COT report data, the changes in commercial positions are as follows: Long positions: Increased by 83 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 538 contracts To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = 83 - (-538) Net positions = 621 Therefore, the net positions for commercials are 621 contracts. It indicates an increase in net long positions for commercials, not net short positions. Based on the provided COT report data, the changes in non-commercial positions are as follows: Long positions: Decreased by 1,084 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 378 contracts To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = -1,084 - (-378) Net positions = -706 Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials are -706 contracts. It indicates a decrease in net long positions for non-commercials, but keep in mind that the value is negative, indicating a net short position for non-commercials in this case . Let's analyze the data for Bitcoin Micro (Code-133742) based on the provided COT report: Total open interest: 6,569 contracts Non-Commercial Positions: Long positions: 3,803 contracts Short positions: 5,543 contracts Spreading positions: 214 contracts Commercial Positions: Long positions: 145 contracts Short positions: 0 contracts Net Positions: To calculate the net positions, you subtract the short positions from the long positions. In this case, the net positions for non-commercials can be calculated as follows: Net positions = Long positions - Short positions Net positions = 3,803 - 5,543 Net positions = -1,740 Therefore, the net positions for non-commercials in Bitcoin Micro are -1,740 contracts, indicating a net short position. Changes from May 23, 2023: Long positions: Decreased by 2,596 contracts Short positions: Decreased by 2,412 contracts Percent of Open Interest: Non-commercial long positions: 57.9% of open interest Non-commercial short positions: 84.4% of open interest Commercial long positions: 3.3% of open interest Commercial short positions: 2.2% of open interest Number of Traders: Non-commercial traders: 50 Commercial traders: 31 Percent of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders: Long positions: 14.8% held by 4 or less traders, 24.4% held by 8 or less traders Short positions: 60.3% held by 4 or less traders, 72.7% held by 8 or less traders Overall, the COT report suggests that non-commercial traders in Bitcoin Micro have a net short position, and there has been a decrease in both long and short positions compared to the previous reporting period.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
3
Cot report data released last May 27thBased on the provided data from the CFTC's COT report for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 23, 2023, here is a detailed summary: Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 13,043 contracts Non-commercial traders: Long positions: 10,124 contracts Short positions: 9,231 contracts Spreading positions: 1,544 contracts Commercial traders: Long positions: 168 contracts Short positions: 1,413 contracts Net positions: Non-commercial net long position: 893 contracts Commercial net short position: 1,245 contracts Changes in commitments from May 16, 2023: Non-commercial traders: Increase of 69 contracts in long positions Increase of 187 contracts in short positions Commercial traders: Increase of 5 contracts in long positions Decrease of 213 contracts in short positions Micro Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 10,042 contracts Non-commercial traders: Long positions: 6,399 contracts Short positions: 7,955 contracts Spreading positions: 885 contracts Commercial traders: Long positions: 160 contracts Short positions: 0 contracts Net positions: Non-commercial net short position: 1,556 contracts Commercial net long position: 160 contracts Changes in commitments from May 16, 2023: Non-commercial traders: Increase of 76 contracts in long positions Increase of 155 contracts in short positions Decrease of 426 contracts in spreading positions Commercial traders : Decrease of 77 contracts in long positions No change in short positions In terms of open interest distribution, for Bitcoin futures: Non-commercial traders represent 90.7% of the total open interest, while commercial traders represent 9.3%. The largest four or less traders hold 63.3% of the total open interest, while the largest eight or less traders hold 71% of the total open interest. For Micro Bitcoin futures: Non-commercial traders represent 74.1% of the total open interest, while commercial traders represent 25.9%. The largest four or less traders hold 31.7% of the total open interest, while the largest eight or less traders hold 40.8% of the total open interest. the commercial traders in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 23, 2023, have a net short position of 1,245 contracts. Comparing this to the previous data, there has been an increase of 127 contracts in their net short position since May 16, 2023. This suggests that commercial traders have become slightly more bearish or less bullish in their outlook for Bitcoin futures. On the other hand, the non-commercial speculators have a net long position of 893 contracts as of May 23, 2023. Comparing this to the previous data, there has been an increase of 69 contracts in their net long position since May 16, 2023. This indicates that non-commercial speculators have become slightly more bullish or less bearish in their outlook for Bitcoin futures. Based on the provided data, we can analyze the open interest shifts from last week to determine the sentiment of the big traders (commercials) in the Bitcoin futures market. However, please note that the open interest shifts alone may not provide a conclusive indication of bullish or bearish sentiment, as they need to be considered in conjunction with other factors and market analysis. In the case of Bitcoin futures, the net change in commitments from May 16th, 2023, to May 23rd, 2023, for commercials shows an increase of 69 contracts in long positions and a decrease of 187 contracts in short positions. This net change suggests a slight shift towards a more bullish sentiment among commercials. It's important to remember that open interest shifts represent the changing positions of traders but do not provide information on the specific direction or magnitude of price movements. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of market sentiment, it's advisable to consider multiple factors such as technical analysis, market news, and broader market trends. Note that the day the commercial decrease the net long on btc micro we had a flash crash follow below.. Don't forget to like and share if you like what you are reading DYOR
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
2
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
Following reports of the first 6 months cycle to ATHThe COT Report (Commitments of Traders Report) is a weekly report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the aggregate holdings of different market participants in the futures market. Looking at the COT report for Bitcoin futures on the CME, we can see that as of May 16, 2023, non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts, which is an increase of 28 contracts from the previous week. Meanwhile, commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts, which is an increase of 262 contracts from the previous week. The increase in the net long position of non-commercial traders suggests that they are bullish on the price of Bitcoin, while the increase in the net short position of commercial traders suggests that they are bearish on the price of Bitcoin. Non-commercial traders (speculators) held a net long position of 10,055 contracts Net long Commercial traders (hedgers) held a net short position of 1,626 contracts Net Short In general, commercial traders are likely to move more capital on the market than non-commercial traders. Commercial traders are typically large institutions, such as banks and corporations, that use futures markets to hedge their commercial activities and manage their price risk. They are often considered to be "smart money" traders because they have access to more information and resources than individual traders. On the other hand, non-commercial traders are typically speculators who are looking to profit from changes in the market price of the underlying asset. While non-commercial traders may also move significant amounts of capital on the market, their positions are generally smaller than those of commercial traders. It's important to note, however, that the amount of capital moved by commercial and non-commercial traders can vary depending on a number of factors, including market conditions, the size of individual positions, and the overall sentiment of the market. While the market is showing Bearish momentum for the past for weeks commercials are slithly offloading their long positions, while retail traders remains more optimistic, But looking at btc monthly cycles, Could be setting up for stop hunt around March low or a setup that might build a higer low in september October when we usually see a low and a pump. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
3
Cot Report Chatgpt is broken Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the given period: April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts During this period, the net short positions held by commercials experienced fluctuations. From April 11th to April 18th, there was an increase in net short positions, indicating a more bearish sentiment among commercial traders. However, from April 18th to April 25th, there was another increase in net short positions, indicating a further bearish sentiment. From April 25th to May 3rd, there was a slight decrease in net short positions, suggesting a slight reduction in bearish sentiment among commercial traders. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts May 6th Net short position 1424 + 500 =1924 contracts short Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures. Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. May 6th: Net long position 1743-1000 = 743 contracts Now TODAY Chatgpt is broken can browse is o more assistant asking me to do all the research myself, might just use google then Unfortunately, the COT report does not provide the net long positions held by commercials. It only provides the net positions (long and short) held by three types of traders: commercial traders, non-commercial traders (large speculators), and non-reportable traders (small speculators). The latest COT report as of May 9th, 2023, shows that commercial traders had a net short position of 1,364 contracts in Bitcoin futures markets. Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 9th, 2023, here are the net long positions for Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin contracts: Bitcoin Futures: Commercial net long position: 233 contracts Non-commercial net long position: 10,027 contracts Micro Bitcoin Futures: Commercial net long position: 256 contracts Non-commercial net long position: 5,915 contracts Please note that these numbers represent the net long positions held by commercial and non-commercial traders as of May 9th, 2023.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
Following May 6th Cot report on Bitcoin On April 11th, 2023, the COT report indicated a significant increase in the number of futures contracts held by large speculators, which indicated a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets. The net long positions held by large speculators increased by 5,000 contracts from the previous week, and the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts. In the following weeks, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators continued to increase, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net long positions held by large speculators increased by another 2,000 contracts, while the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts. On April 25th, the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 3,000 contracts, which could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts, indicating that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators increased again, with large speculators adding 4,000 contracts to their net long positions and small speculators adding 1,000 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, suggest that there has been a predominantly bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators increasing their net long positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. Here is a brief analysis of the net short positions held by speculators in the Bitcoin futures markets, based on the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023: On April 11th, the COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by 500 contracts from the previous week, indicating that some institutional investors may have been reducing their bearish bets on Bitcoin. The net short positions held by small speculators increased by 1,500 contracts, suggesting that retail traders were becoming more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements. In the following weeks, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators continued to decrease, reflecting a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by another 1,000 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. On April 25th, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators increased slightly, with large speculators adding 1,500 contracts to their net short positions and small speculators adding 500 contracts. This could indicate that some traders were becoming more cautious about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators decreased again, with large speculators decreasing their net short positions by 2,000 contracts and small speculators decreasing their net short positions by 1,500 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. This suggests that some institutional investors may have become more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements, while retail traders remained relatively optimistic. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, indicate that there has been a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators decreasing their net short positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. In human laguage we get Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures. Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts Therefore, over this period, the commercials have increased their net long position in Bitcoin futures markets, indicating that they have become more bullish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the same period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts As you can see, the commercials have decreased their net short position over this period, which may suggest that they are becoming less bearish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the commercials' positions are only one of several factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin, and that market conditions can change. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
S&P 500 - what's your take?What's happening? 1. -363.3K CFTC S&P 500 spec. net positions(highest in years, on October 2008 it was -365,697) 2. VIX 15.77 (52-week low) 3. DXY 101.672 (near 52week-low) 4. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)-1.66 (lowest ever) 5. AAII sentiment 4/26/2023 Bullish 24.1% Neutral 37.4% Bearish 38.5% 6. BTC = +76% YTD 7. SPX above all relevant moving averages and above AVWAP from all time high 8. Short term traders waiting for setups and market breadth improvement Until the end of the year S&P500 will end up higher, lower, about the same? Higher Lower Sideways Feel free to add or correct data in favor of any outcome. Happy hunting.
SP:SPX
by Robert077
$GBPJPY - Liquidity/hard resistance above - CoT Suggests Short*SMART MONEY CONCEPTS* (SEE ATTACHED RELATED IDEAS) I have a 15 min chart that I looked at and fiund Smart Money concepts throughout that would suggest a short as long as the price is moving bulish at midnight NY Time... Even then my daily outlook maybe off. But I don't believe my weekly outlook will be off. There's too much to sugggest a short. Such as the Fair value gap below, the Liquidity point below, and the Commitment of traders that says they added more shirts but haven't seen much of a return. So here's the 15 in that I think may happen with more in deth markups than the larger time frame And of course above is the larger time Frame. in which I think the pound may be going down as we saw their economic numbers in the red today, we just may not feel it until tomorrow. We'll see what happens.
Short
by BodiesXWix
7
Educational: How I use the CoT-Data to verify EW countsHi guys today I want to do a short educational on how I use the CoT-data to validate longer term EW counts. Normaly I update my CoT-Spreadheets on Sunday. But since we have been waiting for the data to be released for three weeks now, I have time to show you, how useful it can be. Unfortunately my english writing skills have detoriorated over time but I guess that my charts will make the point. I guess most of you have already heard about the CoT-Report and know what kind of data is report. So I go right in medias res. When looking at the CoT-Data I first calculate the net positions of the three trader categories. Here in Tradingview you find community indicators, that can do that for you. The idea is that large speculators are skilled traders that trade the trend. So when the market trend is up the net position of the large speculators should be long and in the best case increase from week to week. Usually the large speculators carry the largest net long position, when the trend is old and nearing the top. Commercials normaly do the opposite. They try to hedge their business (consumer) or lock in high prices (producer). In normal circumstances they mirror the position of the large speculators. So normaly you can follow the large speculator and profit form the market trend. The CoT-data gets interesting, when we near a turning point and the positions of the large speculators and commercials reach extreme levels. The idea here is, that large specs even though they have a large portfolio their monetary resources are limited whilst the hedging commercials have bigger pockets. When the position of the large specs reaches new highs one expect the trend to end because they have no more ammunition to ignite a further up or down move. On the other hand the commercials how know the fundamentals of the market can now ignite a move in the opposite direction. That is the basic idea. So what I do is to compare the net positon with historical position. Therefore I calculate an index over the last 3 years. The formula is Index = 100 * (current net position - minimum net) / (maximum net - minimum net). The index ranges from 0 = lowest net (short) position in free years and 100 highest (long) position in three years. When the index is above 80 or below 20 the market is ripe for a change in the larger trend. Unfortunately the CoT is only seldom a great instrument to time the market. Commercials can ride against the trend over extended periods. I know for sure, cause more than one time I had to close a position. But it is great as a filter or in combinination with EW or seasonality. When in a final wave 5 in either direction you want to see those extreme Index levels. For those interested I will continue below. But now I want to drive home one of the most important points. SPEED MATTERS! Commercials know the fundamentals of their market. And if they hastyly sell out and turn their position something big is going to happen. You can see this in the above chart of ES. More recent I have a chart of Bitcoin, were you can see, that commercials act swiftly if they see an opportunity. I produce a spreadsheet every week, were I calculate the current index value and the change from the week before and over 4 weeks. I hope that I that data will be released next friday so I can update. You can download the spreadsheet at docs.google.com In the spreadsheet you can also see the market bias. Market Bias is the net position of the large speculator minus the net position of the commercials. So if for example the large speculators are net long and the commercials are net short the net net position of the commercials will be added to the net position of the large speculator. The total balance then shows the amount of contracts in favor of the current trend. As with the index the change and speed of change is more important than the value itself. I hope you enjoyed this and gathered some helpful information and I will come up with some new EW analysis next week. Have a great weekend.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Sideshow83
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." www.cftc.gov COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers. This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week, Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement? Ask your representative maybe? If you are US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
79
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace OUTLOOK: Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25 Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level) Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by xtrader1
1
GOLD COT PERSPECTIVE- Gold strength in synch with Dollar-weakness - 2022 distribution-pattern seems completed - M (double top) follwed by 3 impulses lower done - Q4-22 started with W-pattern follwed by first impulse up - Rotation higher is in line with seasonal expectations (strength in NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB) - COT: Institutions are accumulating longs while distributiing shorts, this is double bullish - COT: Buy-side liquidity resting above 1880 - Weekly (fresh) supply-zone at 1943, direct below it is a Daily imbalance
COMEX:GC1!Long
by xtrader1
2
CADJPY COT STUDY: MORE DOWNSIDE UNTIL 90 ?COT: - Non-Commercial Positions as of 28-1-23 - JPY inverted (down = less shorts) COT JPY (YELLOW): - Moving less short since mid OCT-22 - JPY COT dictates CADJPY price since mid OCT COT CAD (PURPLE): - CAD moving more short since AUG-22 - CAD sideways since begin JAN-23 - Early indication that CAD is recovering from weakness across the board? TARGETS: - Looking for some ranging up (100 ?) - Followed by impulse lower to 90 - Quarterly Pivot to Quarterly S1 would be nice
Short
by xtrader1
USDJPY COT-STUDY Q1-23: BEARISH CONTINUATION?Monetary Policy: - BOJ is making a significant change - Longterm YieldCurveControl target of 0,25% is relaxed to 0.50% - Higher targets are to be considered - This would mean more YEN-strength - FED still hiking rates, but expected target-rate for 2023 is moderate: 4,75% - 5.00% COT: - Institutions started distributing USD-Longs since Q3-22 - Insititutions started distributing JPY-Shorts since Q4-22 - Both moves reinforce eachother in pushing down USDJPY - Distribution-phase seems to continue in Q1-23 Seasonality: - JAN is generally weak for USDJPY, so in line with expectations - FEB & MAR are not weak for USDJPY (but Monetary Policy & COT outweigh Seasonality) Pivot Points: - Q4 was (fast) run from Quarterly R1 to Quarterly S1 - Looks like mid-DEC was start of frontrun Q1-23 - Projected Quarterly Pivot for Q1-23 was sold end DEC-22 - Quarterly Pivot predicts Quarterly S2 with QS1 as (conservative) first target = 125
Short
by xtrader1
1