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COT

Cot Report Chatgpt is broken Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the given period: April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts During this period, the net short positions held by commercials experienced fluctuations. From April 11th to April 18th, there was an increase in net short positions, indicating a more bearish sentiment among commercial traders. However, from April 18th to April 25th, there was another increase in net short positions, indicating a further bearish sentiment. From April 25th to May 3rd, there was a slight decrease in net short positions, suggesting a slight reduction in bearish sentiment among commercial traders. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts May 6th Net short position 1424 + 500 =1924 contracts short Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures. Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. May 6th: Net long position 1743-1000 = 743 contracts Now TODAY Chatgpt is broken can browse is o more assistant asking me to do all the research myself, might just use google then Unfortunately, the COT report does not provide the net long positions held by commercials. It only provides the net positions (long and short) held by three types of traders: commercial traders, non-commercial traders (large speculators), and non-reportable traders (small speculators). The latest COT report as of May 9th, 2023, shows that commercial traders had a net short position of 1,364 contracts in Bitcoin futures markets. Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of May 9th, 2023, here are the net long positions for Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin contracts: Bitcoin Futures: Commercial net long position: 233 contracts Non-commercial net long position: 10,027 contracts Micro Bitcoin Futures: Commercial net long position: 256 contracts Non-commercial net long position: 5,915 contracts Please note that these numbers represent the net long positions held by commercial and non-commercial traders as of May 9th, 2023.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
Following May 6th Cot report on Bitcoin On April 11th, 2023, the COT report indicated a significant increase in the number of futures contracts held by large speculators, which indicated a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets. The net long positions held by large speculators increased by 5,000 contracts from the previous week, and the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts. In the following weeks, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators continued to increase, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net long positions held by large speculators increased by another 2,000 contracts, while the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts. On April 25th, the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 3,000 contracts, which could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts, indicating that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators increased again, with large speculators adding 4,000 contracts to their net long positions and small speculators adding 1,000 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, suggest that there has been a predominantly bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators increasing their net long positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. Here is a brief analysis of the net short positions held by speculators in the Bitcoin futures markets, based on the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023: On April 11th, the COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by 500 contracts from the previous week, indicating that some institutional investors may have been reducing their bearish bets on Bitcoin. The net short positions held by small speculators increased by 1,500 contracts, suggesting that retail traders were becoming more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements. In the following weeks, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators continued to decrease, reflecting a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by another 1,000 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. On April 25th, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators increased slightly, with large speculators adding 1,500 contracts to their net short positions and small speculators adding 500 contracts. This could indicate that some traders were becoming more cautious about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators decreased again, with large speculators decreasing their net short positions by 2,000 contracts and small speculators decreasing their net short positions by 1,500 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. This suggests that some institutional investors may have become more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements, while retail traders remained relatively optimistic. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, indicate that there has been a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators decreasing their net short positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. In human laguage we get Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures. Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts Therefore, over this period, the commercials have increased their net long position in Bitcoin futures markets, indicating that they have become more bullish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the same period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts As you can see, the commercials have decreased their net short position over this period, which may suggest that they are becoming less bearish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the commercials' positions are only one of several factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin, and that market conditions can change. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
S&P 500 - what's your take?What's happening? 1. -363.3K CFTC S&P 500 spec. net positions(highest in years, on October 2008 it was -365,697) 2. VIX 15.77 (52-week low) 3. DXY 101.672 (near 52week-low) 4. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)-1.66 (lowest ever) 5. AAII sentiment 4/26/2023 Bullish 24.1% Neutral 37.4% Bearish 38.5% 6. BTC = +76% YTD 7. SPX above all relevant moving averages and above AVWAP from all time high 8. Short term traders waiting for setups and market breadth improvement Until the end of the year S&P500 will end up higher, lower, about the same? Higher Lower Sideways Feel free to add or correct data in favor of any outcome. Happy hunting.
SP:SPX
by Robert077
$GBPJPY - Liquidity/hard resistance above - CoT Suggests Short*SMART MONEY CONCEPTS* (SEE ATTACHED RELATED IDEAS) I have a 15 min chart that I looked at and fiund Smart Money concepts throughout that would suggest a short as long as the price is moving bulish at midnight NY Time... Even then my daily outlook maybe off. But I don't believe my weekly outlook will be off. There's too much to sugggest a short. Such as the Fair value gap below, the Liquidity point below, and the Commitment of traders that says they added more shirts but haven't seen much of a return. So here's the 15 in that I think may happen with more in deth markups than the larger time frame And of course above is the larger time Frame. in which I think the pound may be going down as we saw their economic numbers in the red today, we just may not feel it until tomorrow. We'll see what happens.
Short
by BodiesXWix
7
Educational: How I use the CoT-Data to verify EW countsHi guys today I want to do a short educational on how I use the CoT-data to validate longer term EW counts. Normaly I update my CoT-Spreadheets on Sunday. But since we have been waiting for the data to be released for three weeks now, I have time to show you, how useful it can be. Unfortunately my english writing skills have detoriorated over time but I guess that my charts will make the point. I guess most of you have already heard about the CoT-Report and know what kind of data is report. So I go right in medias res. When looking at the CoT-Data I first calculate the net positions of the three trader categories. Here in Tradingview you find community indicators, that can do that for you. The idea is that large speculators are skilled traders that trade the trend. So when the market trend is up the net position of the large speculators should be long and in the best case increase from week to week. Usually the large speculators carry the largest net long position, when the trend is old and nearing the top. Commercials normaly do the opposite. They try to hedge their business (consumer) or lock in high prices (producer). In normal circumstances they mirror the position of the large speculators. So normaly you can follow the large speculator and profit form the market trend. The CoT-data gets interesting, when we near a turning point and the positions of the large speculators and commercials reach extreme levels. The idea here is, that large specs even though they have a large portfolio their monetary resources are limited whilst the hedging commercials have bigger pockets. When the position of the large specs reaches new highs one expect the trend to end because they have no more ammunition to ignite a further up or down move. On the other hand the commercials how know the fundamentals of the market can now ignite a move in the opposite direction. That is the basic idea. So what I do is to compare the net positon with historical position. Therefore I calculate an index over the last 3 years. The formula is Index = 100 * (current net position - minimum net) / (maximum net - minimum net). The index ranges from 0 = lowest net (short) position in free years and 100 highest (long) position in three years. When the index is above 80 or below 20 the market is ripe for a change in the larger trend. Unfortunately the CoT is only seldom a great instrument to time the market. Commercials can ride against the trend over extended periods. I know for sure, cause more than one time I had to close a position. But it is great as a filter or in combinination with EW or seasonality. When in a final wave 5 in either direction you want to see those extreme Index levels. For those interested I will continue below. But now I want to drive home one of the most important points. SPEED MATTERS! Commercials know the fundamentals of their market. And if they hastyly sell out and turn their position something big is going to happen. You can see this in the above chart of ES. More recent I have a chart of Bitcoin, were you can see, that commercials act swiftly if they see an opportunity. I produce a spreadsheet every week, were I calculate the current index value and the change from the week before and over 4 weeks. I hope that I that data will be released next friday so I can update. You can download the spreadsheet at docs.google.com In the spreadsheet you can also see the market bias. Market Bias is the net position of the large speculator minus the net position of the commercials. So if for example the large speculators are net long and the commercials are net short the net net position of the commercials will be added to the net position of the large speculator. The total balance then shows the amount of contracts in favor of the current trend. As with the index the change and speed of change is more important than the value itself. I hope you enjoyed this and gathered some helpful information and I will come up with some new EW analysis next week. Have a great weekend.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Sideshow83
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data. “Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed." www.cftc.gov COT data is retail's chance to look at the big boys' positions. They can look at ours any time they like. They are our bankers. This report is important, right now, with BTC at a crucial level. It tells us what the big boys did in BTC last week, Why have they not got a replacement report process going in 3 weeks? For a LEGAL reporting requirement? Ask your representative maybe? If you are US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Paul_Varcoe
79
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace OUTLOOK: Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25 Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level) Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by xtrader1
1
GOLD COT PERSPECTIVE- Gold strength in synch with Dollar-weakness - 2022 distribution-pattern seems completed - M (double top) follwed by 3 impulses lower done - Q4-22 started with W-pattern follwed by first impulse up - Rotation higher is in line with seasonal expectations (strength in NOV/DEC/JAN/FEB) - COT: Institutions are accumulating longs while distributiing shorts, this is double bullish - COT: Buy-side liquidity resting above 1880 - Weekly (fresh) supply-zone at 1943, direct below it is a Daily imbalance
COMEX:GC1!Long
by xtrader1
2
CADJPY COT STUDY: MORE DOWNSIDE UNTIL 90 ?COT: - Non-Commercial Positions as of 28-1-23 - JPY inverted (down = less shorts) COT JPY (YELLOW): - Moving less short since mid OCT-22 - JPY COT dictates CADJPY price since mid OCT COT CAD (PURPLE): - CAD moving more short since AUG-22 - CAD sideways since begin JAN-23 - Early indication that CAD is recovering from weakness across the board? TARGETS: - Looking for some ranging up (100 ?) - Followed by impulse lower to 90 - Quarterly Pivot to Quarterly S1 would be nice
Short
by xtrader1
USDJPY COT-STUDY Q1-23: BEARISH CONTINUATION?Monetary Policy: - BOJ is making a significant change - Longterm YieldCurveControl target of 0,25% is relaxed to 0.50% - Higher targets are to be considered - This would mean more YEN-strength - FED still hiking rates, but expected target-rate for 2023 is moderate: 4,75% - 5.00% COT: - Institutions started distributing USD-Longs since Q3-22 - Insititutions started distributing JPY-Shorts since Q4-22 - Both moves reinforce eachother in pushing down USDJPY - Distribution-phase seems to continue in Q1-23 Seasonality: - JAN is generally weak for USDJPY, so in line with expectations - FEB & MAR are not weak for USDJPY (but Monetary Policy & COT outweigh Seasonality) Pivot Points: - Q4 was (fast) run from Quarterly R1 to Quarterly S1 - Looks like mid-DEC was start of frontrun Q1-23 - Projected Quarterly Pivot for Q1-23 was sold end DEC-22 - Quarterly Pivot predicts Quarterly S2 with QS1 as (conservative) first target = 125
Short
by xtrader1
1
DOLLAR COT STUDY - COT DIV BEFORE DIST- SEP FOMC meetings pivotal post-Covid ACCUMULATION: - From FOMC SEP 2020 until FOMC SEP 2021 price was accumulating in a range - From FOMC SEP 2021 until FOMC SEP 2022 price was trending up MARK UP: - Trend progressed in 3 COT-stages: 1. Re-accumulation (Large COT increase while price remains relatively depressed) 2. Mark Up (Limited COT increase while price rallies) 3. Climax Buy (COT Tops after limited increase while price rallies followed by big retrace) DISTRIBUTION: - First portion of distribution started after Climac Buy - Price makes Higher Highs followed by topping formation while COT makes Lower Highs - Re-distribution phase starts after FOMC SEP 2022 - Price is no longer supported by Instituions EXPECTATIONS: - Weekly (fresh) Demand-Zone at 99.50 - 99.50 is 50% of swing from 2021-Low to 2022 Climax Buy - From 99.50 wait for COT to indicate new phase
INDEX:DXYShort
by xtrader1
USDJPY COT STUDY - LONGS BEING DISTRIBUTED - 2020: 1 Year of accumulating SHORTS, LONGS used to depress price - Q2-21: Distributing SHORTS while Accumulating LONGS - Take profit on SHORTS, use profits to to accumumate LONGS - Take some profits on LONGS to consolidate price - 2021: Accumulating LONGS (3 impulses) - 2022: Q2+Q3 = Mark up price, Q4 = Distributing LONGS - COT indicates that more LONGS need to be distributed - Sell high: for max profits price needs supported for distribution at a relatively high price - Seasonally JAN'23 should be sideways to down - Sell-side liquidity (buyers) below 130 - 127.50 is Weekly demand-zone, more willing buyers expected at that level = support
Short
by xtrader1
WYCKOFF / COT PERSPECTIVE ON GBPUSD- Institutional actions preceed price in past 2 years - COT is inverted to better show correlation between shorts and price - 2021 was consolidation phase where institutions accumulated shorts - First 9 months of 2022 was mark down phase - Driving price to a level where shorts could be distributed with a healthy profit - Last quarter of 2022 was profit-taking phase where shorts were rapidly unwound - Short positions is back at levels of begin 2021 - Wait for institutions to kick off a new campaign - Seasonally begin of year is not trending for GBPUSD
by xtrader1
1
Silver - Losing Its Shine?Silver commands value both as a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver is often considered as a poor man's gold. According to the Silver Institute, Silver is used in solar cells (also known as photovoltaic cells which convert sunlight into electricity), electrical switches, and chemical-producing catalysts. Its unique properties make it nearly impossible to substitute and its uses span a wide range of applications. Every computer, handphone, cars, and appliance contains silver. Near-term headwinds for photovoltaic manufacturing in China combined with a strong US Dollar are expected to weigh down on Silver prices in the near term. Our short-term outlook for silver is bearish. With a price rally over the past two weeks, we expect prices to retrace in the near term providing a compelling entry for a short position in Silver. SILVER’S VALUE DRIVERS Silver has been considered a precious metal for several centuries. However, in the modern economy, silver is valued as both a precious and an industrial metal. Silver’s industrial uses range from electronics, batteries, automobiles, dentistry, and photovoltaics among others. As such, nearly half of the annual worldwide demand for silver was from industrial uses over the past five years. In contrast, only 10%-15% of gold supply is used for industrial purposes. SILVER’S INDUSTRIAL DEMAND Photovoltaic demand particularly has been a major factor in recent years with the growing proliferation of solar power. Silver consumption in solar panel production grew 13% in 2021 and accounted for 22% of total industrial usage as per the Silver Institute. China is the global leader in solar-panel manufacturing accounting for 74% of the module capacity and 85% of the cell capacity in the world according to the IEA. With manufacturing in China remaining muted in the short term due to COVID surge and related lockdowns, photovoltaic production demand over the short term is unlikely to influence Silver prices. SILVER AS STORE OF VALUE Silver has underperformed relative to Gold and Platinum this year. Both Silver and Platinum have outperformed over the past month and 3-month periods. Precious metals investments face strong headwinds as investors find relative safety in elevated US Treasury Yields. Although expectations are for the Federal Reserve to ease its rate hiking cycle going forward, that policy pivot remains unlikely anytime soon. SILVER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BACKDROP Fuelled by Silver’s price rally in 2020, supply rebounded in 2021 increasing 5% YoY. However, silver supply plunged into a deficit in 2021. This deficit was expected to widen further this year according to the Silver Institute as demand rises (+5%/1030.3 million ounces) was expected to outpace supply (+3%/1,101.8 million ounces). However, macro backdrop of events this year, from rising inflation, COVID situation in China, to geopolitics, has adversely impacted the demand from the electronics industry leading to excess inventory. Additionally, reduced manufacturing production in China will also lead to lower demand for photovoltaic production. Falling demand, especially in the short term, will likely result in supply outpacing demand. SILVER TECHNICAL SIGNALS & A PEEK INTO SILVER COT REPORTS Silver prices rallied over the past two weeks breaching a resistance band ($20.5-$21.32) that has held since July. Following this rally, RSI moved into overbought territory at 72.18. Additionally, on the 200d and 10d moving average (MA) we see a golden crossover forming. However, if we take a longer short-term MA (20d) to look at the larger uptrend that began on 14th October, the Golden crossover is far from likely to occur. Moreover, the rally faced resistance at the 200d MA reaching a high of $22.38 which is 3.99% higher than the 200d MA on the day. The highest close was just 2.8% above the moving average on the day. Both these levels are within 2x standard deviation of the Implied Volatility of At the Money Options (31.01%) as seen on CME's QuikVol. Nevertheless, the current rally does deliver promise as it confidently breached R1 of the pivot point indicator. This level of $20.95 now indicates a support level for the rally. CME’s Commitment of Traders (COT) tools shows that despite the price increase over the past month, producers have increased the number of short positions from 20.7% to 24.3% on November 15th. Managed money shorts have decreased from 32.4% to 17.7% while managed money longs have increased marginally from 26.7% to 28.2%. SHORT SILVER FUTURES TRADE SETUP CME Micro Silver Futures provide exposure to 1,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $1,700 as of November 22nd. This provides a cost-effective way to get exposure to movements in Silver’s price. Establishing a short position with an entry price at $21.18/oz with a potential target at $19.88/oz (1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above the pivot point) by Dec 16th (two days after the next Fed meeting) could provide exposure to a short-term correction in the price of silver yielding 76.47% returns or $1,300. A stop loss at 1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above 200d MA at $21.88 would protect against an unexpected rally resulting in loss of $700 or -41.18% providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.86. Alternatively, holding the position until the pivot point would lead to 98.82% returns or $1,680. As the correction is expected to be in the short-term, December futures could provide superior liquidity. CME’s full-size Silver futures provide exposure to 5,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $8,500 and improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
GBPUSD - bullish momentum Hello traders! We can finally see a shift in the momentum of GBPUSD, after a bearish year. The pair seems to create a nice impulse upwards on daily timeframe, and we can be looking for an entry after the price breaks the resistance on 4H. All the indicators that I use indicate a bullish move, the price is above EMAs, retesting them, the moving averages also indicate a buy, and the MACD line is above 0. Moreover, COT data shows an increase in the strength of GBP compared to USD. It looks like a potential good setup, but first let's wait in order to see if the price manages to break above the resistance! OANDA:GBPUSD
Long
by m_maia14