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COT

Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
Long Wheat (ZW) - COT Thrust Signal (Read for Explanation)CBOT:ZW1! A bit of a unique chart setup here - typically I trade based solely on the max positioning of the commercials (See below for an explanation of what that means). However, I will occasionally look for a buy when the Net positioning of commercials has accelerated recently (Indicated by black bars in the COT indicator at bottom of the chart). For this trade, use the daily chart for an entry using your favorite technical indicator (if it triggers!). Note: Crop Progress report on Monday Risk: There has been some recent heavy selling making this slightly counter trend Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on calling highs and lows for Wheat (Green and Red highlighting on the bottom indicator). And no, I did not optimize the settings to get this to occur. Helping Materials to Understand What I'm Talking About (I have this on all my ideas now) COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0. The black bars show when the index is moving rapidly and can also trigger a trade) - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart , use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rudeadam18
Long Russell! - Trading w Commercials - Fading Speculators (COT)Looking at the net positions of the Commercials (Red Line), the Russell 2000 is at record high levels. Additionally, the small speculators (Blue Line - tough to see but it's blown up on lower indicator)) are very short compared to historical levels. The COT index on the bottom shows dark green when both commercials are maxed net long and small speculators are maxed net short. Use a daily chart with your favorite indicator/candlestick pattern to look for entry - be patient - don't forget a stop. See below for explanations of what you're looking at and what I'm talking about with COT RISKS: The trend is down which makes this counter-trend trade COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here)
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by Rudeadam18
1
GBPJPY ready for larger correction down?Looking at the recent COT report it becomes clear that over the past weeks Yen net shorts have been cut by more than half and are now at a high level that have acted as roof the past 12 months. Yen longs have been added at a higher rate while GBPJPY did it's climb towards the 168.5x level. This time the reduced Yen shorts have been done at critical level. GBPJPY is very Fib friendly and halted at the 2015-2020 61.8 fib level. Comparing the USD GBP and JPY index, it is clear that JPY is the driver in GBPJPY lately. Looking at the fundamentals JPY "should" continue to be weak until signs tells us otherwise, but markets need to take profits all the time and reload at better prices. At the two prior adjustments to the short bias in Yen, price in GBPJPY fell during those periods and then turn making investors add back to net yen shorts. This time price has spiked up while net shorts reduced heavy i.e. yen longs entered the market more aggressively and yen shorts exited the market. Even though the price first fell after first 168.5x run and then did a new run at the 168.7x level net shorts continued to decrease without increasing the net short exposure and became even more aggressive at the 168.7x top. The COT report indicates to me that we have seen investors reduce their negative exposure in the Yen quite aggressively at a key area. The wider swings is also a sign of reversal in the making. The lower high this week was another sign of exhaustion BUT fridays daily candle did put me off so I am still a bit careful. Looking at the 4 hour chart the 164.40-50 level is most likely the confirmation that is needed to go full bearish in GBPJPY. So, yes I read a bigger move could be in the works or are already in motion. But to where? Thats above my paygrade and interest. Reading the COT will give us clues about what investors want. So i will wait for clues on when they are done buying back the Yen. On the last two similar moves in net positions price reversed up. This time the decreasing net positions are at the highs so a shift is most likely in the making and we could drop sub 150.00 but I would expect a minimum test of 155.7X. The latest shift in Yen from positive to negative net positions was march 2021 at 151.XX level. Investors are still net negative and this by it self also tells us that there are more investors short in the yen than there is investors that is long. But the added yen longs and decreased yen shorts at the GBPJPY top indicates that we will see more adjustments to positive in the yen and GBPJPY will drop further coming weeks unless GBP suddenly gets some strength and starts rising harder than the YEN. But for now the GBP net negative positions does not move at the same rate as the YEN even though they also decrease their net negative positions. For the near future Yen will drive GBPJPY and a sharper correction in net YEN positions here at the highs indicate lower GBPJPY prices. Short GBPJPY 164.40 sl 168.80 tp 155.80 Boxes in chart are similar changes in Net positions according to COT.
GShort
by Stensen
BUY IN THE LONGTERM ALONG THE DESCENDING CHANNELThe Euro Area GDP expanded by 0.6% on quarter in Q1 2022, twice a 0.3% growth in the previous estimate, and above a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in Q4. Improved export activities. Exports increased 0.4% while imports fell 0.6%. Concerns around the war in Ukraine resulting in inflationary pressures on food prices and supply disruptions The ECB is set to end 8 years of negative interest rates, in an attempt to curb record inflation, which is likely to weigh on consumer spending and investment. The European Commission expects the EA GDP growth at 2.7% for 2022. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed plans to hike rates twice this summer. The Euro Dollar Exchange Rate - EUR/USD is expected to trade at 1.04 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts' expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.00 in 12 months' time. Net positions of large speculators declined significantly by 112% to negative sentiment in the futures market on the 14th of June 2022. We expect to hold 3 months Call contracts along the lower bands of the descending channel
Long
by dynamiquebd
Overall look at Nas. Looking for demand to buy from...There is a B.O.S arrow there. Break Of Supply. We had a LL, market was selling. But the Buy pressure broke the last Supply before the LL. The new HH has respected Daily supply yes, but left strong demand areas. If we are going to be in a new buy trend, where demand is respected and supply is broken, we just need to respect the demand and go higher. If not The new trend would need to respect supply areas and break the demand zones. Thus, either way we want to see price at the demand areas. So we will sell it until we get there...
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by V4p3R_7r4D3r
$BTC - Run May Have Been Short Lived - FVG's Below To FilL *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. TLDR; Entry: 32,100 Stop Loss: 33,080 Take Profit: 28,000 After placing a Fib on the Current Wave, It became clear that we may be headed lower.... again. My Mentorship taught me to think of weekly profiles and how weekly candles form. The rush up just seemed like a wick for the week. Then I pulled the fib and noticed that the Discount price was at the exact line for the large Fair Value Gap (Imbalance) below. Additionally, I went to Barchart.com and looked at the Commitment of Traders report to find that Commercial traderds have reported additional net shorts than previously recorded. That was my first tip that Bitc could be going down as of Yesterday. I still Have my Analysis that BTC will get to 21,400. But for now, let's take baby steps and look to se if 28,000 first.
CME:BTC1!Short
by BodiesXWix
5
SP500 - the best time to LONGIn this analysis, I used several leading indicators - commitment of traders index (CFTS), insiders (Form 4 SEC ) and the greed and fear index (CNN Business). In commitment of traders index I period 19 - it's a middle of 13 (quarter) and 26 (half year). In practice, it is this period that provides the best results (not only on sp500, but also on other instruments). Historically, the chart shows how well this leading indicator performs. At the moment, we have not yet seen a direct signal to buy, but the fact is that we receive a signal with a slight delay (a week), and it is quite possible that we are actually already in the buy zone. And it is quite possible that we will still go to the previous volume zone (around 3600). Next indicator is Insiders data. The chart clearly shows that each increased number of insider buying (more than 150) leads to a subsequent increase of the market. Now the indicator reached 180, so we expect the sp500 index to start growing. Greed and Fear Index is one of the best leading data. And he also shows just perfect results on history! Current values from 7 to 15 are an indicator of extreme fear, and values below 10 start all the longest trends. I do not set the levels where the sp500 index will reach, as they will be dictated by the market, and leading indicators will show a reversal. And only there I will close long positions in order to get the maximum profit from the growing trend. P.S. On the chart, for reasons unknown to me, the arrows for insiders and the fear index moved a little - I hope this will not interfere with understanding the idea.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by CapitalizatorUA
7
XAUUSD 19th APRIL 2022The price of Gold was supported by investors against Russia and Ukraine as well as the outlook for China's economic growth given. Based on the COT report that was last released, it showed that large institutions tended to hold contracts for long positions totaling 165,244 more than short 48,219, and they continued to add to their total 16,924 more long positions than short 1,526. We can see the price forming a bullish channel, we can take this opportunity to buy near the support area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNP-FX
4
$MTS - To Fill 4 Hr Fair Value Gap on Order Block For Up Bounce*SMT = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward Liquidity and Balance. That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas. It's slowly working it's way down into the smart money "Buy Zone" or discounted area. With Kucoins 60% staking of the coin, I'm surprised it's going this low. But I have three short targets along the way up.
KUCOIN:MTSUSDTLong
by BodiesXWix
Short Idea for GBPUSDThe US dollar fluctuated between 95.6 and 96.6 last month. Traders' confusion over interest rate hikes, as well as duplicity in talks with the Federal Reserve, have kept the dollar afloat. But given the job data, the CPI data, which shows inflation well, has kept traders believing that the US Federal Reserve will soon plan to raise interest rates. Therefore, according to the picture above, we predict the upward movement of the dollar index. With this rise and strengthening of the dollar as soon as possible, we can see better GBPUSD currency pairs. As we can see, this currency pair is located in a descending channel and now the roof of this channel is at the LH point. Also, by examining the COT data, the net positions of the British pound are still 50,719 selling positions, which will continue the decline of this currency. Also, compared to last week, the 6967 trading position is closed and makes this currency pair have a short rise. GBPUSD COT data
Short
by Alisabbaghi
1