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COT

Short Idea for GBPUSDThe US dollar fluctuated between 95.6 and 96.6 last month. Traders' confusion over interest rate hikes, as well as duplicity in talks with the Federal Reserve, have kept the dollar afloat. But given the job data, the CPI data, which shows inflation well, has kept traders believing that the US Federal Reserve will soon plan to raise interest rates. Therefore, according to the picture above, we predict the upward movement of the dollar index. With this rise and strengthening of the dollar as soon as possible, we can see better GBPUSD currency pairs. As we can see, this currency pair is located in a descending channel and now the roof of this channel is at the LH point. Also, by examining the COT data, the net positions of the British pound are still 50,719 selling positions, which will continue the decline of this currency. Also, compared to last week, the 6967 trading position is closed and makes this currency pair have a short rise. GBPUSD COT data
Short
by Alisabbaghi
1
Currency, cycles and money flowCurrency, cycles and money flow Currency is a system for flowing of money – According to the Oxford English dictionary, it is paper and coins in circulation and whilst all currency is money not all money is currency. Actually, derived from the old French language “Corant” meaning running, eager, swift, lively. And this is from the Latin “currere” to run or move quickly. So, by sheer definition Bitcoin and Crypto is exactly that. However, as majority of the HODLer mentality in the market – the desire and the WANT is not enough for the price to attack 100k, 200k or a million a bitcoin without understanding the economics even in its simple form. Money circulation is what makes the world go around – an economy can only flourish if the money flow is constant. This is also true for the crypto market. And this is where the cycles come into the formula. You see, money is different than gold which is different to majority of other commodities. Going back hundreds of years we had barter systems where items where simply swapped for other items. But as civilisations seemingly advanced, we needed a store of value that would not rot, whither or die and this is why Gold was “a safe” value in exchange for items people would barter for. Skip forward a few hundred years -- we have seen corruption and greed de-value gold, not in its physical form but in its inherent principles. You only need to rummage through Pandora papers or the Panama to get a feeling of money flow. The issue here is whilst majority of us here with access to the internet and a roof over your head would be regarded as first world poor. The majority of the less fortunate would fall into the category of third world poor. (in comparison to the levels of wealth, leaked in the papers above). The influential and ultra-high net worth’s can sit out a recession and buy the dip. But for the first world poor they are often the guys selling at the discount and often buying at a premium. It is all a flow of money, and this creates the money flow cycle. Such cycles have been dissected by the likes of Elliott, who introduced the Elliott wave theory. See the link for info on this topic. So why does this matter? Why will this be no different – although majority of the linear thinking believe in their heart of hearts that “it’s different this time” The reason – is that linear thinkers want the buy and hold strategy to turn a small amount of capital into millions or billions. The idea is no different than placing gold coins and piles of cash under your bed. Without money flowing in and out of the system – there needs to be a constant flow of new buyers and someone willing to sell to these buyers. Velocity of money is key! For this we need industry adoption, and the best way to drive that is to reduce fees and make the technologies more available. So whilst ‘Diamond hand’ mentality seems logical, it’s also a speed bump in the way to true trajectory in the under pinning value. In the recent rally we saw very little volume come into the move up, the price was above 50k before seeing any kind of regular volume (not high volume). We broke to a new ATH and yet failed to stay there for more than a day. This is still concerning for the larger picture – when highs are broken, you should expect momentum and a follow through. The more under the mattress – the more the velocity we achieve. Now here’s where it still feels a little premature to celebrate moon calls to a $1m a coin level. Take a look at the COT leveraged funds information; These guys are not getting REKT – these guys are selling low volume to the retail crowd. I said about the cycles; I have covered this in several posts – here again is the roadmap I painted in March this year. And so far, we have not really deviated from the trajectory. Here is the post And here’s the current situation; Similarly, for the “they blew up the rocket call” So, I cannot ignore the cycles, the lack of velocity and of course the money flow itself. Renowned economist John Maynard Keynes popularised the shift of paradox – which stated individuals tried to save more during a recession which leads to a fall in aggregate demand, in turn effecting the economic growth. For an economy to grow it needs to flow. This flow is what cause the cycles. I recently read the book “the chimp paradox” how it simplified human logic into 3 categories – we are chimps, human or a computer. When fear and greed take over, we often use our chimp brain to assess the situation and all rational goes out the window. We only agree with our own beliefs and dismiss all other points of view, regardless of the logic and empathy behind it. When money stands still, it is no longer money. This is why saving, storing hoarding will never make the economy wealthy. The services and goods purchased will still need to be purchased and new users to the system need to first adopt the system – these becoming the new bag holders for the generation before them. Which takes me onto the next point; a new flow of money. With a new flow of money “where is this generated”? You take the new ETF for example, this allows pension funds to invest into crypto (this is where most linear thinkers, believe it’s all rosy) they will use their chimp brain logic to only see the positive. However, as a fund manager myself I am happy to take 2% fees for the money I manage and then add a success fee on top of that usually around 15-22% The truth is when fund managers get enough money under management – the 2% fee keeps them in luxury yachts and private jet charters. The investors can make a small – usually a few points above base and the fund managers move onto the next new shinny thing for more management fees. Moral of the story – fund managers get rich first and clients are often secondary. If no service or value can be given, money stands still. It is here we move into the arguments for Socialism, capitalism and Communism. Where do you think the governments will take crypto? Do you think there is not much that governments can do? What’s your opinion on regulation? How does crypto get to $1m a coin, I mean what’s the supporting logic for such a move. Who are the new bag holders? All comments welcome. Be interesting to see what people think of the flow to hodl thinking. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
16
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons 1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago 2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency 3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices. 4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices. 5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you. Good Lock, Wish you money With respect Ali Sabbaghi ziwox.com
Short
by Alisabbaghi
Gold COT - Growing signs of bullishnessCommitment of Traders (COT) shows growing signs of commercial being less short than the last 3 months which marks a possible bullish sentiment potentially coming into this market. Discussion There are three core issues when looking at gold, in my opinion: 1) Basel III, has implications for trading paper gold - the majority of traded gold to date and its effects are not well understood; 2) Mark-to-market of commodities against the US dollar including gold; 3) Input costs of mining new gold (Oil) noting that a majority of the gold traded is simply 'paper' gold or derivatives - even by gold miners themselves. Notice that I have not made any commentary on inflation or deflation. There is no evidence from the perspective of the US market that either will be significant in the near to medium term, irrespective what the media and others promote. Suggestion Keep an eye of this, along with gold miners and ETFs.
COMEX:GC1!
by Adam-Cox
2
BTC COT - Still shows signs of negativity>BTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report stills shows signs of dealer negativity and declining retail sentiment. Obviously, this can all change on a dime. I don't plan trades on COT alone. However, what COT is good for is understand where market participants stand and what 'knock-on' effects may eventuate when market's reverse or when trend continuation occurs. Specifically, - if the market is caught net short, any impulse to rally the market (BTC in this case), can squeeze higher before continuing, - if the market is net short and biased in that way, Calls may be cheap relative to puts (so there may be an opportunity here to buy time usefully), - Understand the 'mind of the market' which is often wrong and miss-timed - so may be a useful contrary indicator. Recommendation - check out Cost Basis and Realised PnL to understand whether new money is flowing into the market (at lower prices) - keep an eye on any sudden changes of COT, particularly to the opposite direction, particularly where a market stalls and finds support (a good buy!) - news and 'tweet' effects including ' potential squeeze risk! Good Trading :)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC
by Adam-Cox
COT SHOWS DEALER NEGATIVITY - THE MUSIC IS ABOUT TO END!SP500 COT analysis illustrates the current negativity towards the current SP500 level. Understanding the indicator The Histogram illustrates the Net Dealer Position. Dealers have inventory replenishment requirements. If other market makers are sellers - they are buyers and visa versa. The Line shows small speculators. Their goal is 'time' the market to make capital gains with no requirement to manage inventory. Discussion Dealers went net Long to anticipate a market fall as the Covid-19 crash materialized. They had average timing capability and remained anticipating further falls as fiscal support and market intervention drove a recovery based bull run. In the last couple of months we have seen Dealers once again looking to build inventory with the obvious view that the market is/will be going into declines. But are they right? The inflation inspired crash didn't occur and where is inflation? Conclusion The core issue from a trading perspective is to differentiate the difference between 'noise' and 'signal' - On the negative side we have: fiscal support waning, and the debt ceiling fiasco. Growing geo-political tensions should not be ignored either! - On the positive side there is the possibility of an infrastructure deal. The music seems to be coming to an end! My Trade Plan Currently, I think contrary to fiscal stimulus we are now a 'sell on rallies' market. This is an exit long tactic. Fiscal support ends along with growing bi-partisan politics - its a 'build shorts' market Fiscal support continues, a bit of a rigmarole on the debt ceiling we could buy on pull backs. VIX backwardates for whatever reason - exit longs and short Follow-up Action Keep an eye on: - COT for a broad perspective - Keep an eye Cost Basis and Realised Gains - VIX slope - Geo-political tensions - US Fiscal policy (don't get distracted with monetary policy!)
AMEX:SPY
by Adam-Cox
5
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
by thunderpips
EURNZD - 07 – 11 June 21 Week Trade PlanEURNZD This is my 07 – 11 June 21 Week Trade Plan for EURNZD Previous Month : Bullish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bearish As anticipated last week, EURNZD played the range from 6650/7020 and with the daily solid close on 28 May it pushed it to the range high at 6980/7020 Res Zone with some Res formation on the way up at 6820/6860. As EURNZD still in range and no clear break out, i expect EURNZD to again test the range lows at 6700/6650. COT report showing that NZD shorts had increased their positions but still not convincing as it's only one week that showed that increase. Longs are still holding their positions. A confirmation that NZD shorts are into the market when i see 2 to 3 weeks consecutive increases in short positions . Seasonality showing that NZD will weaken till mid May and strength till end of May continuing into June to create new NZD highs which will lead EURNZD to create a new low. Technically, i'm looking for EURNZD to still range between 7020/6650, which makes me look for longs from range lows and shorts from range highs as long no break and support/resistance formation above Sup/Res zones marked. My plan for this week as EURNZD reached the top of the range, i'll look for resistance formation below the daily resistance formed and below the Res zone at 6980/7020 to short back to the range low at 6700/6650. My preferred longs will be above the Res zone 6980/7020 with support formation above on 4H. No major news this week for NZD and Monday is NZD Bank Holiday.
by Amr_Sadek
EURNZD - 31 May to 4 June 2021 Weekly Trade PlanEURNZD This is my 31 May– 4 June 21 Week Trade Plan for EURNZD Glad that i'm back after a long break again to my favorite habit "Charting" Previous Month : Bearish Previous Week : Bullish Daily : Bullish - After creating new high at 1.7020 resistance, EURNZD couldn't hold a support above the resistance zone 6980/7020 along with previous week news on Wednesday that leaded for more NZD strength pushing the price into the tough ranging zone 6800/6680. - The current drop in EURNZD still holding above the solid support zone 6650/6600 which could lead to a range plays from lows to retest the highs at 7020. - COT report still showing that NZD longs are firm and at the highest of the year and shorts are still weak, which means that i do expect EURNZD to maintain the bearish momentum and continue it's down move and any spike in price up reaching a solid resistance level/zone is going to get rejected and will give a solid opportunity for Shorts. - Seasonality showing that NZD will weaken till mid May and strength till end of May continuing into June to create new NZD highs which will lead EURNZD to create a new low. - Technically, i'm looking for EURNZD to still range between 7020/6650, which makes me look for longs from range lows and shorts from range highs as long no break and support/resistance formation above Sup/Res zones marked. - On Friday, RBNZ Gov Orr will have a speech on London session open which will cause NZD to be volatile, so taking cautious at that time will be recommended. Daily Chart: Weekly Chart: Monthly Chart:
by Amr_Sadek
Trading in the ZoneJust wanted to share some info on the calls from last week and some updates. We are now in the zone mentioned a nice catch of a short $14,000 drop on the "Crypto Beast" Wyckoff structure has played it's hand and it was beautiful. One happy chappy! Now we are at the zone, expecting a slow move up, some addition sideways consolidation before a couple of traps are put into motion. Paul covers some of this in the latest stream. Thanks @Paul_Varcoe for a great update stream earlier! www.tradingview.com Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
7
Gold - GC Gold Futures are rising as non-commercials add to their long positions. - Currently net long 192.3k, up 21.5k. In the week to Wednesday, for the first time in 16 weeks, GLD (SPDR Gold ETF) saw positive flows, gaining $340 million (courtesy of ETF.com). In the meantime, non-commercials raised net longs in gold futures to an 11-week high. Last week, the metal jumped 3.6 percent after repeatedly defending $1,760s-$1,770s. The nearest support lies at $1,800, and of course $1,760s-$1,770s after that.
COMEX:GC1!
by TH_Analysis
4