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Cotanalysis

Red Pill of Trading: A Glimpse into Hidden Market SetupsIn the depths of the market matrix, few can see beyond surface price action. The Commitment of Traders data is a revelation, a signal that speaks to those ready to see the true forces at work. This strategy has uncovered potent setups across currencies, energies, grains, and metals—all primed for major moves. But I cannot offer this knowledge freely. Information that comes cheap is rarely valued. True insight, like the red pill, demands a commitment. A choice to see beyond the veil. Today, I offer you just a glimpse—one of many market truths revealed by this strategy. The Canadian Dollar. The CAD is positioned for longs. But let me be clear: we don’t blindly long this market. Instead, we wait, watching for a confirmed entry trigger on the daily timeframe. Yet everything points towards a powerful move. Commercials are positioned extremely long relative to the last 26 weeks, and approaching levels we last saw in August—right before CAD surged. Open interest has been increasing, and when OI increases, we ask ourselves: "Who is causing this open interest increase?". In this case, it is increasing while the Commercials are getting very long, which is bullish. Last week, investment advisor sentiment hit a bearish extreme, a contrarian signal that lingers now into this week. CAD is undervalued against both gold and treasuries—another indication of buy potential. Two weeks ago, we saw ADX drop below 20, while commercials heavily increased their longs, creating a bullish divergence that grows with each new indicator. Supplementary indicators stand by this setup: Insider Accumulation, Stochastics, %R, even a bullish momentum divergence is setting up, though it’s not yet confirmed. And this is just the beginning. If you want to uncover the full array of setups across markets this week and next, to see the real truth behind the moves, then take the red pill. Reach out. This is an opportunity, a privilege to step beyond mere price action and learn the market’s deepest secrets. Inquire with me, and together, we’ll peel back the layers of the matrix. The choice is yours.
CME:6CZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
2
Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day." Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here. Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT) "What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them." Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel: Commercials’ Short Stance Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side. Overvaluation Across Key Metrics Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside. Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention. Seasonal Trends: Down to December True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move. Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize. "The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path." This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action. To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
CBOT:ZLZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Natural Gas Goldmine: Are You Ready to Take the Red Pill?Unlocking the Natural Gas Goldmine: Are You Ready to Take the Red Pill? In the ever-shifting sands of the financial markets, the truth often lies buried beneath layers of noise and confusion. Today, we delve into the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, a powerful tool that reveals a compelling opportunity in the natural gas market. What if I told you that the signs are aligning for a potential rally? But heed this warning: This does not mean to blindly dive into long positions. Instead, we stand poised, awaiting the moment of a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe—a moment that transforms potential into profit. The Market Signals: A Gathering Storm The data speaks volumes. Commercial traders, the real players in this game, are currently positioned at a major extreme in long holdings—the highest they’ve been in over three years. This is not mere coincidence; it’s a clear indication that something significant is brewing beneath the surface. As we analyze the net open interest, we observe a phenomenon I like to call the “Bubble Up.” This surge occurs when Commercials outpace Large Speculators, and such dynamics often foreshadow market turning points. The whispers of a shift in power are growing louder, and it’s time to listen closely. Furthermore, we cannot overlook the increasing open interest during this multi-week decline. But we must ask ourselves: Who is driving this increase? The answer is clear—commercial traders are loading up on long positions. This is a bullish sign, indicating confidence in a market reversal. The Premium Charge: An Ominous Signal of Change Adding another layer to our bullish thesis is the current premium charge in the market. We observe that the front months, extending out to April, are trading at a premium compared to later delivery months. This indicates a strong demand for immediate delivery—a sign that the market expects an uptick in prices. But let us not forget the supplementary indicators that further bolster our long stance: the Price Oscillator Indicator Value (POIV), %R, and the Ultimate Oscillator are all aligning in favor of the bulls. They whisper of impending change, urging us to prepare. The Seasonal Anomaly: A Moment of Reflection Yet, as we pursue this truth, we encounter an obstacle. The traditional seasonal patterns suggest a decline until February, but the extreme positioning of commercial long traders casts doubt on this warning. Sometimes, the path to enlightenment requires us to look beyond conventional wisdom. In this moment, we find ourselves at a crossroads. The insights we’ve gathered are akin to a revelation, a glimpse into the potential future of natural gas. The Choice is Yours Will you take the red pill and see how deep the rabbit hole goes? Embrace the knowledge, or remain in the shadows. The markets are waiting, and so is your potential. Welcome to your awakening.
NYMEX:NGF2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
Take the Red Pill: The EURO COT Long Play RevealedTake the Red Pill: The EURO Long Play Revealed "Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain, but you feel it." – Morpheus Most traders move blindly through the markets, buying and selling on impulse, on what they think they know. But for those who understand how to read deeper signals, patterns begin to emerge—patterns that separate the merely active from the truly informed. Right now, if you're willing to look, Commitment of Traders (COT) data is showing us something intriguing about the EURO. This is your red pill: a glimpse into how those in the know see beyond the chart. The Setup: A Commercial Long Play Behind the scenes, commercials—the ones who have true skin in the game—have loaded up on longs, reaching a 26-week extreme in positioning. Not only that, but they're holding their longest exposure in three years, a sign that those with the best intel in the market believe in a coming shift. Meanwhile, the "small specs," often driven by emotion rather than insight, have gone nearly max-short. Historically, this group isn't just wrong; they’re almost predictably wrong. The result? A textbook setup. But if you’re looking to take advantage, know this: jumping in without discipline is how people get burned. We wait for a confirmed trend change on the daily timeframe. Nothing less. Because only the disciplined get to see beyond the shadows and reap the rewards. The Undervaluation: Gold, Treasuries, and the EURO’s True Position If you look at the EURO in comparison to gold and treasuries, something stands out—it’s undervalued. This doesn’t show up in headlines or make for easy soundbites, but for those who know how to look, it’s a flashing signal. And there’s a seasonal edge, too: the EURO’s tendency to rally through mid-December. It’s another puzzle piece that, when added up with positioning extremes and market sentiment, paints a picture that only a few will truly grasp. Supplementary Signals: Layers of Confirmation For those still seeking confirmation, additional indicators are lining up: %R, Stochastic, and even bullish momentum divergence are signaling alignment. But understand this—the market doesn’t reward the impatient. We wait, observe, and move only when the trend change is confirmed on the daily chart. The Truth Beneath the Surface This is no ordinary trade idea. It’s a blueprint to help you see the hidden dynamics that move the market. Those who look only at surface price action may be blindsided by the moves yet to come. But for those willing to see beyond—those ready to know what the COT data, the fundamentals, and the seasonal tendencies are saying—this is a rare opportunity. Now, if you’re ready to see what the rest don’t, follow Tradius Trades. You’ll be one of the few with eyes open, equipped to move with purpose. --- > "I didn’t say it would be easy, Neo. I just said it would be the truth."
CME:6EZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
COT Red Pill: Canadian Dollar Primed for a Long The Red Pill of Trading: Illuminating the Canadian Dollar's Long Potential In the vast and enigmatic expanse of the financial matrix, truths often lay hidden, obscured by layers of complexity and uncertainty. Today, I offer you an opportunity—an invitation to take the red pill and awaken to the profound insights that the market has to reveal. We turn our gaze to the Canadian Dollar (CAD), a currency poised for potential transformation, waiting for the discerning trader to recognize its worth. The Commercials Let us begin with the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, a powerful tool that unveils the positioning of the market's key players. The commercials—those seasoned entities whose knowledge and resources run deep—are currently positioned significantly long. Their holdings approach levels last seen in August 2024, a time of significance with extreme long positioning that heralded a remarkable four-week upswing in prices. This is no mere coincidence; it is a bullish signal, a whisper from the market that should not be ignored. However, wisdom demands patience. To embark on this journey, we must first wait for a confirmed trend change entry trigger on the daily timeframe. The fundamentals are ripe for a rally, yet we must ensure our actions are grounded in calculated strategy rather than impulsive enthusiasm. Open Interest: A Window into Market Dynamics As we delve deeper into the market's secrets, we uncover the insights offered by open interest analysis. During the recent multi-week downtrend, we have witnessed a spike in open interest—a phenomenon that warrants our attention. Here, we must pose a critical question: who is driving this increase? in this case it is the commercials, accumulating long positions and enhancing their stake, we find ourselves looking at a robust bullish indicator. The increase in open interest driven by those with intimate market knowledge signifies a potential shift in the market’s direction. This insight is a crucial key to unlocking the doors of opportunity. The Contrarian’s Edge But the revelations do not end there. Investment advisor sentiment has plummeted to bearish extremes, a classic contrarian signal that savvy traders know to watch. As the masses succumb to pessimism, history has shown us time and again that opportunity often lies in the shadows of despair. The WillVal indicator further illuminates our path, revealing that the Canadian Dollar is currently undervalued compared to Gold and Treasuries. This mispricing signals an impending revaluation—a chance for the discerning trader to seize the moment. Seasonal trends indicate that we should anticipate price movements upward as we approach January, and the positioning of small speculators(the usually wrong public)—excessively short—presents yet another contrarian opportunity, one that the wise trader can capitalize on. The Choice Before You You now stand at a significant juncture, a crossroads where knowledge and opportunity intersect. The insights I have shared are akin to taking the red pill—a revelation that exposes the true nature of the market, laying bare the possibilities that await those willing to see. As you contemplate your next move, remember that successful trading is not about surrendering to the whims of the crowd but about embracing the hidden truths that lie beneath the surface. Join me on this journey into the unknown. Follow Tradius Trades, where we dissect the intricate patterns of the market and equip you with the insights necessary to navigate this complex landscape. The truth is out there, and together, we can unveil the secrets of trading with clarity and conviction. Choose wisely, for the matrix of opportunity awaits your command.
CME:6CZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
2
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore. To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe. Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade: 1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching. 2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator. 3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why? Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher? 4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High? Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note. 5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits. 6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check. 7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended. 8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing. The Bottom Line Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution. If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money's Secret Signal - Commercials Loading Up on NattySmart Money's Secret Signal: Commercial Traders Are Loading Up on Natural Gas The natural gas market is displaying compelling signals that suggest a potentially significant bullish trend change on the horizon. Through careful analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report and several other key market indicators, we're seeing a convergence of bullish factors that warrant close attention from market participants. Commercial Positioning at Multi-Year Extremes Perhaps the most significant indicator is the current positioning of commercial traders, who are now more long than they've been in over three years. Commercial traders, often considered the "smart money" in commodity markets, tend to have the most comprehensive understanding of supply and demand dynamics. Their extreme long positioning is a powerful bullish signal that shouldn't be ignored. Open Interest Analysis Confirms Bullish Outlook Recent weeks have shown a notable increase in open interest concurrent with price declines. This relationship between price and open interest becomes particularly meaningful when we examine who's driving the increase of OI. In this case, the increase in open interest is primarily attributed to commercial traders building long positions – a highly bullish indication that suggests strong hands are accumulating positions at current price levels. Contrarian Indicators Support the Bullish Case Several contrarian indicators are aligning to support the bullish thesis: -Investment advisor sentiment is currently very bearish, which historically has been a reliable contrarian indicator. -Small speculators are showing extreme short positioning, and this group tends to be wrong at market extremes. -Natural gas is undervalued when compared to historical relationships with gold and U.S. Treasuries. Technical Confirmation Signals The technical picture is adding weight to the bullish case: -The Average Directional Index (ADX) has triggered a buy signal, dropping below 20 while commercials shifted to extreme long positioning. -A bullish spread divergence has emerged between front-month and second-month contracts, implying immediate commercial demand for the front month, which is bullish. -A major weekly bullish divergence has recently confirmed, suggesting potential for significantly higher prices. Market Structure and Timing While these indicators paint a compelling picture for higher natural gas prices, it's crucial to understand that this analysis doesn't necessarily call for immediate long positioning. Rather, it suggests that the market is fundamentally "setting up" for an upward move. Traders should wait for confirmation through a daily bullish trend change before considering positions. The Power of COT Analysis in Trading The Commitment of Traders report remains one of the most powerful yet underutilized tools in market analysis. Understanding how to interpret this data, particularly when combined with other technical and fundamental indicators, can provide traders with a significant edge in the markets. While many traders focus solely on price action or technical indicators, the COT report offers unique insights into the positioning of the market's most informed participants. Ready to master the art of COT analysis and gain access to professional-grade market insights? Reach out to us today to take your trading to the next level. Risk Disclaimer IMPORTANT: The analysis provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. Trading natural gas futures, options, or any other financial instruments involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. The market analysis presented here represents the opinion of the author based on the data available at the time of writing, but markets are dynamic and can change rapidly. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The indicators and analysis techniques discussed in this article may not work in all market conditions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision. Before trading, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. It is strongly recommended that you conduct your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. You should also consult with a licensed financial advisor or broker regarding your specific situation. The author and the trading community mentioned may have positions in the securities discussed and may trade in these securities at any time.
NYMEX:NGF2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
Natural Gas is Ready For a Commercially Driven Bull MoveNatural gas is nicely setup for longs if we get a confirmed bullish trend change on the daily. -Extreme commercial long positioning (most long they've been in the last 3 years) - bullish. -Investment advisor sentiment very bearish - which is actually bullish. -Undervalued vs gold & treasuries - bullish. -ADX under 40 while commercials got extremely long - bullish. -Bullish spread divergence between front month and next month out - bullish. -Small specs at extreme in short positioning - bullish. -True seasonal & some cycles are not supportive of going long, but these are the last things I look at. Enough indicators are supporting longs that I'm not going to worry about this. -Bullish momentum divergence has triggered on some high timeframes, implying much higher prices are on the cards for Natty. There is also some smaller bullish weekly divergence currently setup (but not confirmed). Have a good week.
NYMEX:NGF2025Long
by Tradius_Trades
COT Analysis - Currencies - DXY 6E & 6M SET UP FOR TRADES!COT analysis shows that the Euro and Mexican peso are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmation of bullish trend change on the daily. The only "fly in the ointment" here is that the DXY commercial positioning is still very bullish, which is a bit of a mixed signal. Ideally, we like to see the DXY & majors give opposing signals simultaneously. That being said, 6E & 6M are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmed daily bullish trend change. Have a good week.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
COT Analysis - Currency SectorA few weeks ago I was calling for shorts on 6J, longs on DX, and shorts on ZB. Those trades are well underway, with partials already taken. This week, COT strategy is supportive of longs for DX. Of particular interest is 6A (AUD). The commercials are more short this market than they have been in over 3 years. This is a very bearish signal. I will be focusing on shorting AUD this week, as in my opinion, it has the greatest potential for a significant down move. Have a great weekend.
CME:6M1!
by Tradius_Trades
USDX Futures Contract AnalysisThis is the U.S Dollar Futures contract expiring in December. I usually use this in Forex but lately the crypto market has been moving like the Forex market so i might as well drop it in here so you can use this information to analyse for the 4th Quarter of the year. Below the chart, there are 2 panes (the 1st pane indicates the Commitment of Traders report and the second pane indicates the institutional Open interest) For the 1st pane, focus on the red line which indicates the Commercial Banks. We can see that the red line is increasing which indicates that Commercial Banks (The big players in the market) are increasing their Net Long positions on the Dollar. For the 2nd Pane, the purple line indicates the Open interest within the market. We can see that the previous 2 weeks, the Open interest dropped drastically. What does this mean to a Smart Money Trader? The commercial banks are doing something called Short Covering (simply said, they are using this opportunity to close their short positions by opening Long positions). Now that I have explained what the 2 panes are implying... Look at the chart of the Weekly USDX futures contract, price has reached the Bullish Orderblock. What do you think will happen next 😏 ? www.barchart.com
ICEUS:DXZ2022Long
by Evaliste
2
GBP STILL BULLISHlooking at the chart we have marked out key levels with active Options strike prices supported with high volume and open interest. We plan to observe how price reacts at 1.3300 and 1.2500 levels prior the the expiration of these contracts. In terms of price action , Cable still maintains an upward trajectory in line with non-commercial sentiments and seasonal outlook. UK bond price maybe trending downwards in line with its inverse relationship with the GBPUSD. However, the Brexit fears may invalidate this move if the trend line is broken and prices fall below 1.2500
Long
by dynamiquebd
STARS ALIGNING FOR THE EURO Looking at the yield spread between the German 10-year and US 10-year bonds, the Euro may be undervalued giving more potential to the upside. Though the correlation between the prices of EURUSD and the bond spreads may not be perfect, in hindsight we have seen prices trail this phenomenon. Asset managers and hedge funds have been placing big bets pushing net long positions in favor of the EURO by 12% since June. However, this bullish sentiment for the Euro may already be signaling an over-crowed market as exposures reach bullish extreme levels. The sentiment for the Dollar has been diminishing on the negative impacts of the virus. We have seen 90% reduction in Net long positions since the beginning of June. We have also observed a bearish extreme signal as net long contracts reach all time low. The dollar index is reflecting the perception of large speculators given the sustained decline in the past week. EURUSD technical setup see prices above the monthly highs of May @1.1139. We would expect support to hold at this level for further push to the upside. A 30-year seasonality cycle may also support the bullish play for the Euro. EURUSD rest above the 200 EMA on the daily time frame. In our opinion, any improvements in the daily incidents of the virus may invalidate the bearish outlook for the dollar
Long
by dynamiquebd
2