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Cotreport

Fundamental & Technical analysis on USDZAR shorts Fundamental : Open Interest on the South African Rand is increasing which is a Bearish signal/confluence. Commercial (Hedgers) Short positions are also increasing which for Exotic pairs like USDZAR means they are covering their Longs and add yet another Bearish confluence. Non-Commercial is also increasing its Long positions which is once again Bearish since you have too see it from a 180 degree view point. COT Report : cot-reports.com Technical : On the Technical Analysis side of things we have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA at the same time that Momentum is negative and the Stochastic %K line is underneath the 50% line Stop Loss & Take Profits : To determine my Stop Loss and Take Profits I use a Fib Retracement drawn from a recent significant Low to a recent High. My strategy uses the 0.236 Fib LVL as the Stop Loss, for this trade that means 18.51172 on the chart is my Stop. Take Profit #1 is at Fib LVL 1.272, Take Profit #2 is at Fib LVL 1.414, Take Profit #3 is at Fib LVL 1.618, Take Profit #4 is at Fib LVL 2, Take Profit #5 is at Fib LVL 2.272, and my final Take Profit which is #6 is at Fib LVL 2.618.
Short
by Iateyourcroissant
Fundamental & Technical Analysis on XAGUSD (Silver)Fundamental : Historically for Silver when Open Interest (OI) is going down it is a bearish signal and vice versa unlike other symbols. In this case Open Interest is decreasing which is Bearish, Commercial (Hedgers) Long positions are slowly going up while their Short positions seem to be slowly decreasing which is another Bearish confluence. For Non-Commercial the Longs have been lowering the past 5 weeks but unfortunately so have the Short positions which isnt exactly what i would like to see but I do believe they'll start increasing. Net Positions for Commercial has reached an extreme on the line chart at about -400K which is a Bearish signal and Non-Commercial has reached an extreme at around 300K, both of these extremes are aligned with the extremes seen on February 2020. COT Report : cot-reports.com Line Graph : cot-reports.com Technical : The 5 EMA has crossed down the 20 EMA while Momentum is negative and the K% line on the Stochastic is underneath the 50% line. Targets & Stop Loss : My stop loss is at Fib LVL 0.236 which is $29.470 on the chart. Take Profit #1 is at Fib LVL 1.272, Take Profit #2 is Fib LVL 1.414, and Take Profit #3 is at Fib LVL at 1.618. The rest of the Take Profits are at Fib LVLs 2, 2.272, and 2.618. At every Take Profit i will take half of my position off and leave the rest running, after Take Profit #1 is hit I move my Stop Loss down to break even.
BLACKBULL:XAGUSDShort
by Iateyourcroissant
Fundamental & Technical Analysis on USDCAD Short Fundamental : The COT Report for Canadian Dollar is showing a increase in Open Interest (OI) which is a Bearish sign. Commercial (Hedgers) Long positions are increasing at the same time OI is increasing which means they are covering their Longs and is also considered Bearish. Non-Commercial Short positions are increasing as well adding to the Bearish sentiment. COT Report: cot-reports.com Technical : We have the 5 EMA crossing down the 20 EMA while price action is underneath both, Momentum is negative, and the %K line is underneath the 50% line. Targets/Stop Loss : I'm using a Fib retracement from a recent Low to a High to determine my Take Profits and Stop Loss. My Stop Loss is at the 0.236 Fib LVL which is $1.38783 on the chart. At every TP I take half of my position off, for TP #1 I'm aiming for the 1.272Fib LVL which is $1.35778 on the chart, TP #2 is the 1.414Fib LVL which is $1.35366 on the chart, and the TP #3 is at the 1.618Fib LVL which is $1.34774. TP #4 is at the 2Fib LVL, TP #5 is at 2.272Fib LVL, and TP #6 is the final one which is at 2.618Fib LVL.
Short
by Iateyourcroissant
Future AUDUSD selloff very possible Fundamentals : The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The COT (Commitment of Traders) Non-Commercial Report for AUDUSD showed a larger number of participants holding shorts over longs but we’ve had about 15k shorts close their positions since the last COT report so there is that going against the bearish sentiment. Net position overall is still negative but it had a positive change of 13k or 13.51% which also goes against the bearish sentiment. % OI for longs is 18.40% while the % OI for shorts is 55.5%, Open Interest being 224.5k which is -14k lower then last weeks reports Technicals : We get the 3-EMA crossing-over the 10-EMA to the downside while price action is possibly staying underneath both EMAs. Stochastic is facing down while crossing the 50% mark and the Momentum is negative. Stop loss above the top trend line, Targeting prominent recent Lows.
Short
by Iateyourcroissant
Trade Idea: Go Long Up To 1100$Rationale: COT sentiment The last COT report shows that Commercials' net short positions have been decreasing, which could indicate a shift in sentiment towards the bullish side. The COT report can be used as a tool to gauge the market sentiment of traders. When Commercials' net short positions decrease, it could signal a potential shift in sentiment towards the bullish side. This could be due to factors such as improving economic conditions, increased demand for platinum, or geopolitical events that could impact the price of platinum. Option Sentiment There has been a significant increase in insider option activity, with a notable number of calls being purchased at 100$ strike price. This bullish sentiment has been further corroborated by the options open interest, which has also increased. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Platinum breakthroug range.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by ClashChartsTeam
Platinum Trade Idea: Go Long with a Price Target of $1,100Rationale: COT sentiment The last COT report shows that Commercials' net short positions have been decreasing, which could indicate a shift in sentiment towards the bullish side. The COT report can be used as a tool to gauge the market sentiment of traders. When Commercials' net short positions decrease, it could signal a potential shift in sentiment towards the bullish side. This could be due to factors such as improving economic conditions, increased demand for platinum, or geopolitical events that could impact the price of platinum. Option Sentiment There has been a significant increase in insider option activity, with a notable number of calls being purchased at 100$ strike price. This bullish sentiment has been further corroborated by the options open interest, which has also increased. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Platinum breakthroug range.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by ClashChartsTeam
Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures Commitments of Traders (COT) report for Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as of June 13, 2023. Here's a breakdown of the data: Bitcoin Futures (Code-133741): Total Open Interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 10,086 contracts Short Positions: 9,343 contracts Spreading Positions: 1,875 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 122 contracts Short Positions: 1,309 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 12,083 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 12,527 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 1,168 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 724 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Decreased by 20 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 6 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 314 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Decreased by 65 contracts Commercial Short Positions: Decreased by 74 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 229 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 246 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 4 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Decreased by 21 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 76.1% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 70.5% of open interest Commercial Long Positions: 0.9% of open interest Commercial Short Positions: 9.9% of open interest Number of Traders in Each Category: Non-Commercial Traders: 38 traders Commercial Traders: 54 traders Percentage of Open Interest Held by the Largest Traders: Long Positions: 66.5% (4 or less traders) and 73.6% (8 or less traders) Short Positions: 33.9% (4 or less traders) and 48.9% (8 or less traders) Micro Bitcoin Futures (Code-133742): Total Open Interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators): Long Positions: 4,685 contracts Short Positions: 6,160 contracts Spreading Positions: 593 contracts Commercial Traders: Long Positions: 188 contracts Short Positions: 0 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: 5,466 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: 6,753 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: 2,449 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: 1,162 contracts Changes from the previous report (June 6, 2023): Long Positions: Increased by 178 contracts Short Positions: Increased by 95 contracts Spreading Positions: Increased by 139 contracts Commercial Long Positions: Increased by 16 contracts Total Reportable Long Positions: Increased by 333 contracts Total Reportable Short Positions: Increased by 234 contracts Total Nonreportable Long Positions: Decreased by 18 contracts Total Nonreportable Short Positions: Increased by 81 contracts Percentage of Open Interest Held by Each Category of Trader: Non-Commercial Long Positions: 59.2% of open interest Non-Commercial Short Positions: 77.8% For Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 13,251 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold the majority of the open interest, with 76.1% of the long positions and 70.5% of the short positions. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 0.9% of the long positions and 9.9% of the short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 38, while there are 54 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 66.5% of the long positions and 33.9% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 73.6% of the long positions and 48.9% of the short positions. For Micro Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest: 7,915 contracts Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) hold 59.2% of the long positions and 77.8% of the short positions, making them the dominant group. Commercial Traders hold a smaller portion of the open interest, with 2.4% of the long positions and no short positions. The number of Non-Commercial Traders is 50, while there are 34 Commercial Traders. The largest traders (4 or less) hold 26.5% of the long positions and 52.4% of the short positions, while the largest 8 or less traders hold 35.4% of the long positions and 68.2% of the short positions. Key Points to note: Speculators (Non-Commercial Traders) hold the majority of the open interest in both Bitcoin Futures and Micro Bitcoin Futures. Commercial Traders have a smaller presence in terms of open interest. The number of traders is higher for Bitcoin Futures compared to Micro Bitcoin Futures. The largest traders have a significant influence on the market, holding a considerable portion of the positions. Please note that the COT report provides insights into the positions held by different types of traders but does not indicate future price direction or market trends. It is one of the tools used to analyze market sentiment and positioning.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Wakandian
Will the S&P 500 tank (or will bears be forced to capitulate?)Whilst this year's 'rally' on the S&P 500 has been mediocre at best, the increase in net-short exposure to S&P futures has been impressive. As of last Tuesday, large speculators pushed their net-short exposure to the futures contract to their most bearish level since late 2007. Yet with prices rising whilst speculators increase bearish exposure, there is a clear mismatch between the two data sets. And one that will need correcting, one way or another. Prices will either need to roll over to justify the short-exposure of large speculators, or bears will have to capitulate which could also trigger a short-covering rally to send prices higher. A potential catalyst could be if (or when) the US increase their debt ceiling, with reports suggesting we are on the cusp of a 2-year raise - and that could support risk assets such as the S&P 500. But if the talks break down, the deadline is missed and the US government defaults (which would also see the US lose their 'AAA' rating), it could be a case of 'watch out below' as the market slumps to justify the aggressive positions of bears. Either way, this is one to watch as the week's progress.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by CityIndex
7
Following May 6th Cot report on Bitcoin On April 11th, 2023, the COT report indicated a significant increase in the number of futures contracts held by large speculators, which indicated a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets. The net long positions held by large speculators increased by 5,000 contracts from the previous week, and the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts. In the following weeks, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators continued to increase, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net long positions held by large speculators increased by another 2,000 contracts, while the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts. On April 25th, the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 3,000 contracts, which could indicate a potential shift in market sentiment. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 2,000 contracts, indicating that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net long positions held by both large and small speculators increased again, with large speculators adding 4,000 contracts to their net long positions and small speculators adding 1,000 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net long positions held by large speculators decreased by 1,000 contracts, indicating that some institutional investors may have started to take profits or reduce their exposure to Bitcoin futures markets. However, the net long positions held by small speculators increased by 1,000 contracts, suggesting that retail traders remained optimistic about Bitcoin's future price movements. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, suggest that there has been a predominantly bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators increasing their net long positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. Here is a brief analysis of the net short positions held by speculators in the Bitcoin futures markets, based on the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023: On April 11th, the COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by 500 contracts from the previous week, indicating that some institutional investors may have been reducing their bearish bets on Bitcoin. The net short positions held by small speculators increased by 1,500 contracts, suggesting that retail traders were becoming more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements. In the following weeks, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators continued to decrease, reflecting a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin. On April 18th, the net short positions held by large speculators decreased by another 1,000 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. On April 25th, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators increased slightly, with large speculators adding 1,500 contracts to their net short positions and small speculators adding 500 contracts. This could indicate that some traders were becoming more cautious about Bitcoin's future price movements. On May 2nd, the net short positions held by both large and small speculators decreased again, with large speculators decreasing their net short positions by 2,000 contracts and small speculators decreasing their net short positions by 1,500 contracts. Finally, on May 6th, the latest COT report showed that the net short positions held by large speculators increased by 500 contracts, while the net short positions held by small speculators decreased by 1,500 contracts. This suggests that some institutional investors may have become more bearish on Bitcoin's future price movements, while retail traders remained relatively optimistic. Overall, the COT reports released since April 11th, 2023, indicate that there has been a decreasing bearish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets, with both large and small speculators decreasing their net short positions for several weeks in a row. However, there have been some fluctuations in market sentiment, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. In human laguage we get Based on the COT reports from April 11th to May 3rd, the commercials (i.e., producers, merchants, processors, and users of Bitcoin) have held a net long position in Bitcoin futures. Here are the net long and net short positions of the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net long position of 799 contracts April 18th: Net long position of 1,017 contracts April 25th: Net long position of 1,534 contracts May 3rd: Net long position of 1,743 contracts Therefore, over this period, the commercials have increased their net long position in Bitcoin futures markets, indicating that they have become more bullish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. Here are the net short positions held by the commercials in Bitcoin futures markets for the same period between April 11th and May 3rd: April 11th: Net short position of 969 contracts April 18th: Net short position of 1,181 contracts April 25th: Net short position of 1,500 contracts May 3rd: Net short position of 1,424 contracts As you can see, the commercials have decreased their net short position over this period, which may suggest that they are becoming less bearish on the future prospects of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the commercials' positions are only one of several factors that can influence the price of Bitcoin, and that market conditions can change. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Wakandian
Bitcoin April 11th Cot report According to the latest COT report, there was a significant increase in the number of futures contracts held by large speculators (i.e., non-commercial traders) in the Bitcoin futures markets. As of April 11, large speculators held a net long position of 10,000 contracts, which was an increase of 5,000 contracts from the previous week's report. This increase in net long positions by large speculators suggests a bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets. It is also worth noting that the net long positions held by small speculators (i.e., retail traders) also increased by 2,000 contracts during the same period, further indicating a positive sentiment towards Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the COT report only provides a snapshot of market positioning at a particular point in time and should not be used as a sole indicator for making trading decisions. Additionally, market sentiment and positioning can change rapidly, and traders should always use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions. When comparing the April 11, 2023 report with the previous COT report on Bitcoin, which was released on April 4, 2023, there was a significant increase in the net long positions held by large speculators, which was up by 5,000 contracts. The net long positions held by small speculators also increased by 2,000 contracts. This suggests that there has been an increase in bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin in the futures markets over the past week. Overall, the latest COT report on Bitcoin indicates a positive sentiment towards the cryptocurrency in the futures markets, with large and small speculators both increasing their net long positions. However, as always, traders should be cautious and use multiple indicators and analysis methods to make informed trading decisions.
Long
by Wakandian
A Crude Awakening!The surprise production cut announcement from OPEC+ on Sunday caught us off guard! With oil prices surging close to 7%, the question arises: will this trend persist? To put the production cut into perspective, the unexpected 1.16 million barrels per day reduction is a continuation of the cuts announced last October. In total, these cuts will represent roughly 3.7% of global demand. Since it has been some time since we covered oil, let's revisit some of the factors we see affecting oil now. Strategic Petroleum Reserve First, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at its lowest level since 1983. The remarkable depletion of the reserve to combat energy inflation finally ended in December. How has crude oil performed since then? It has been trading relatively flat, with the recent news pushing crude back to its December peak levels. We view this as a potential positive for crude oil, as the current low SPR levels indicate that supplies cannot be easily smoothed out by artificial market forces to suppress oil prices. Furthermore, the SPR will eventually require a refill at some point, adding buying pressure. Dollar weakness As crude oil is quoted in USD, the dollar's performance greatly influences oil prices. The chart above depicts the dollar (inverted) against crude oil. Over the past 20 years, periods of dollar weakening have been associated with higher oil prices. With the recent dollar decline, we have yet to see a significant response from crude. COT Positioning Another interesting note about oil is the reduction of non-commercial long positions over the past year as oil rallied from the depths of negative prices in 2020. As long positions close, net positioning (blue) has returned to 2016 lows. The current positioning landscape presents opportunities for a renewed surge in Crude Oil if market participants re-establish their longs. Term Structure The term structure of Crude Oil remains significantly in backwardation, indicating possible demand pressures, as measured by the Dec 2023 – Dec 2024 spread as well as the Jun 2023 – Jun 2024 spreads. The news on OPEC production cut resulted in a spike in the steepness of the term structure, further emphasizing the presence of price pressures. Political Gamesmanship Last but not least, as global powerhouses China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia jockey for positions on the world stage, it's undeniable that oil plays a pivotal role in their strategic arsenal. By leveraging their influence over this vital commodity, these nations may attempt to exert pressure on the US, seeking to tip the geopolitical balance in their favor and assert their dominance in the energy market. Looking at the charts, we see crude oil struggling to break lower after completing a descending triangle. The recent gap up has now positioned Crude Oil just above the 200-day moving average and descending triangle. Combined, the stage seems set for oil’s next leg higher as the low SPR levels, dollar weakness, term structure & net positioning act as potential tailwinds to propel Crude Oil higher. We set our stops at the previous support level of 73.15 and take-profit levels at 92. Each Crude Oil Future contract is equal to 1000 barrels of crude oil. Each 0.01 point increment in Crude Oil Futures is equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.reuters.com
Editors' picks
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
16
Follow the Smart Money to be on Right Side of Market!Hey Traders here is a quick video that explains how to use the Commitment of traders report before you make a trading decision. This is a government report that is released weekly every Friday. The report will show the institutional current futures market positions from the previous tuesday. The benefit in having this information weekly is that it will show you the current trend in the market that the Smart Money or Big Funds are holding. In my opinion these institutions are the ones that can have a large effect on the market trend. Knowing how to use this information can really benefit us in our trading. Enjoy! Trade Well, Clifford
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TradeTheIndex
6
A GOOD TIME TO BUY PUT OPTIONS ON EURJPY!We forecast a gradual demand for the JPY on the premise of global economic uncertainties. This idea is supported by almost 50% decline in net short positions of large speculators on the JPY since May 2022 from negative 110k to 54k. However, speculative positions on the Euro recently flipped to the negative to dampen the optimism of a recovery on the Euro. BoJ has alluded to signs of recovery in Japan's economy. Worthy of note was BOJ Gov Kuroda's statement: "Must be vigilant to impact of financial, currency market moves and their impact on Japan's economy, prices". The technical trigger of price below the previous month's low inspired our interest in buying 30 days PUT options @138.00
Short
by dynamiquebd
Copper Futures setting up for a potential long tradeCopper / HG Futures market may be setting up for a move back to the upside. After a huge expanding bullish candle in the beginning of June that saw price blast through the volume Point of Control (POC) which goes back to October last year the price then immediately reversed and we have seen a sell off for the majority of this month. However yesterday we saw a spinning top candle form at a critical point which had been a support level, this has also painted bullish divergence on the RSI indicator. Further to the above technical analysis we have also seen net buying activity from commercial operators which indicates a slight under supply : demand imbalance. On many occasions large commercial buying can lead to a price hike as supply squeeze takes hold. Lastly commodity seasonal reports also show that copper does have a tendency to sell off in the beginning of June but then turns around at the end June and price upwards again through until end of July before dipping again coming into August. I would like to see price close above yesterdays close and hold above ~$4.05 which is roughly a support zone. Ideal entries could be above yesterdays high with price targets at ~$4.25 and / or ~$4.40, which are both just below previous support and resistance levels and large volume clusters. However if price cannot break above and hold $4.05 and instead falls and closes under $4.00 then I would not be looking at any long trades.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by gary_trades
LBS / Lumber Futures potential long trade incomingMy chart idea illustrates a confluence of fundamental and technical analysis which leads me to believe a long trade in the Lumber futures market may getting close. On the fundamental side: - We have seen Commercial buyers become net long for a whole month, last time this happened was mid 2020 and this then led to a ~130% price rise over 2 months when the price went from roughly $350 up to $820, albeit it was a bumpy ride with numerous gaps up and down along the way. This recent commercial buying activity is shown with the blue above the zero line in the COT report indicator. On the technical side: - There is clear bullish divergence on the daily chart between price and the RSI. Key technical levels to watch: - Volume profile going back almost 1yr (as much as I could fit onto daily chart) shows the biggest volume cluster / Point of Control sits around $620, so price needs to break above this and hold the level to confirm break of down trend. - Coincidently the above mentioned level measures up almost precisely ($618) with a Fibonacci level when using the recent double top as anchor points. - When drawing a simple trend resistance line from the recent high in march and down to current price then you can see that this trend has not been broken yet, however the line recently intersected $620 level. If price breaks the trend then the $620 level shouldn't be far off. - Lastly on the weekly chart price is just touching oversold levels in the RSI. Historically Lumber hasn't prolonged periods at this level, it typically touches or breaks the level and reverses back within a few weeks. In summary it looks like ~$620 is a key level that needs to be broken above and if it can hold that level until weeks end then I'd be looking to position a long entry. The Lumber futures market does offer big reward when it moves however it is very illiquid with tendency to price gap once it starts trending so caution needs to be exercised!
LLong
by gary_trades
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons 1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago 2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency 3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices. 4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices. 5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you. Good Lock, Wish you money With respect Ali Sabbaghi ziwox.com
Short
by Alisabbaghi
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The fact that the AUD is now the second largest net-short position among the majors does not really surprise given the recent string of negative factors such as the virus situation, slowing economic data in China and falling Iron Ore prices. This week we have the RBA policy decision coming up and markets want to know how stressed the bank has become given the recent challenges. It seems that consensus is expecting the bank to cancel their planned tapering that would have started in September, with more aggressive bets forecasting the bank to announce a higher pace of QE at this week’s meeting. Either way it will be an important one to watch for the AUD. For the NZD and CAD continued to move closer to neutral positioning. For the CAD this was hardly a surprise given the stretched positioning to begin with, but the NZD was a surprise with the currency not being able to take meaningful advantage of the most hawkish central bank among the majors. This week the quarterly employment data from New Zealand will be crucially important as it will be the last big ticket data points before the August RBNZ policy decision and could either seal the deal for a hike or could push back some of those expectations in the event of a very big miss. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY remains the biggest net short among the majors, and surprisingly has failed to take any real advantage of the drop lower in US10Y. Given the wash out in treasury positions and the move towards 1.14% in US10Y the JPY has not really taken the bait to appreciate as one would have thought. Thus, even though the currency remains oversold from a positioning point of view, it does show that there is some possible asymmetry in long USDJPY right now as a move lower in yields have not negatively affected the pair, and at these lows the probability is skewed towards US10Y upside. For the Dollar, it’s going to be a very data heavy week with the main event being Friday’s July jobs report. As the Fed’s focus has shifted away from inflation and towards the labour market, the jobs data will be watched closely as a gauge to see whether we are moving towards or away from the Fed’s goal of ‘substantial further progress’. Make sure to also keep track of the data points feeding into Friday’s NFP such as the two ISM PMI reports as well as the ADP National Employment data. GBP: The Pound is still in a net-short positioning despite the fundamental outlook still remaining bullish for the currency. That is a positive in our view as it shows that a lot of the frothy positioning has been flushed out after the June FOMC meeting. This week the main event for the GBP will be the upcoming BoE policy decision coming up on Thursday. With hawkish comments from BoE’s Saunders, some participants have argued that we could see a possible dissention at this week’s meeting on whether to continue with QE or whether to cut back. For now, it seems premature for the bank to cut purchases with the furlough scheme still needing to be unwound. The bank would arguably want to see how the labour market holds up before they commit to normalization, and that means waiting until at least October, in which case they would only have about 6 weeks of purchases left, which means the higher likelihood right now is that QE runs out as expected. EUR: For the EUR net-long positioning has continued to fall with the data updated until 26 July. As expected, the EUR managed to grind out some mild gains against the greenback, but unfortunately given the choppy price action going into FOMC we weren’t able to benefit the rewards and was taken out at break-even on our long EURUSD positions. This week, with a light calendar for the EUR it’s going to be a very Dollar focused week for the EUR in general. The weak bearish bias remains intact fundamentally, so any continued upside in EURUSD into key resistance areas could set up some interesting shorting opportunities. However, with such a busy data week ahead, it might be best to wait for data points before engaging the market, especially as we are now officially in the thinner liquidity and lower volume month of August, we might be in store for some choppy price action in between key data points.
by thunderpips
5
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Yet another 13K unwind of net long positions for the CAD in the CFTC data updated until the 20th of July means that a lot of the froth in positioning has been taken care of. Our concerns about positioning for the past few weeks meant a patient stance with CAD longs, but with the size of the unwind we think CAD longs look attractive again on a relative basis. As for the NZD, the currency still looks very ‘cheap’ at the current levels given that the RBNZ is the first major central bank that stopped QE. Apart from that, expectations for rates to go higher in the next three weeks should also provide a favourable environment for the NZD. We like NZD longs versus the Dollar going into this week’s FOMC. We remain patient on AUD with the virus escalation. The challenge for Australia when compared to places like the UK and US is that the vaccination roll out is miles behind. So, if the same type of spike in cases occur it could create a lot of economic pain as we head deeper into Q3. On the radar this week will be employment data, and if that comes in much softer than expected our preferred way to express AUD weakness would be with AUDNZD and AUDCAD downside. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY positioning remains stretched to the downside, and the fast and punchy recovery in equity markets didn’t do the JPY any favours either. However, the inverse correlation with US10Y could still see JPY pressured. We’ve seen a lot of downside in US10Y over the past few weeks, beyond what majority of market participants (us included) were anticipating. The downside in yields meant one less negative driver for the JPY. But as a ton of the stretched positioning in treasury shorts have arguably been flushed out, we could see yields regain some upside momentum again. For the USD, this week we are turning slightly more cautious on the Dollar. Yes, the USD had good reason to see the upside it enjoyed over the past few weeks. But as the markets are looking for a slightly more cautious sounding Fed this week (due to the Delta variant), and since short-term the price action is looking a bit stretched, there could be some downside for the USD going into the FOMC. GBP: The GBP put in a decent recovery from the lows this week. Monday saw some downside as participants were disappointing when the most dovish member of the BoE said some dovish things. Hardly the type of reaction one would expect, but after the comments from Saunders the week before there was some hope that the overly dovish Haskel might do the same. However, despite the Monday sell off we saw Sterling put in a solid recovery, despite ongoing tensions between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the current levels, especially with positioning back into net short, one has to argue that GBP is looking attractive from a value perspective. As the markets are expecting a cautious sounding Fed this week, one of the ways we would like to express potential USD weakness in the week ahead is against the GBP. Obviously, we’ll need to keep close track of any major negative escalations on the political front. EUR: The EUR has seen a sizable push lower ever since we had the less dovish than expected June FOMC meeting. After that, the Dollar has enjoyed further upside from various drivers which has kept the EUR pressured, and the ECB’s continued dovish tone sure hasn’t helped. We have been very patient in chasing the EURUSD lower after finding the support around 1.1780 – 1.1850 as a very tough nut to crack. Even though we maintain a fundamental bearish outlook on the EUR and the EURUSD one has to argue that the downside looks a tad stretched. Positioning seems to agree with this as we’ve seen a whopping 72000 reduction in net long positioning in the past 5 weeks (that’s a lot). Yes, the overall net long positioning still looks way too high for the fundamental outlook, but timing doesn’t favour chasing the EUR lower from here. At the current levels the risk-to-reward does look attractive for a possible short-term mean reversion opportunity to the upside for EURUSD going into the FOMC, that is barring any possible risk off environments which should be supportive for the USD. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 July 2021.
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COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It’s important to keep in mind that since the RBNZ meeting took place on Tuesday, we won’t see a lot of the upside in the currency we had this past week reflected in the CFTC data as yet. After the hawkish tilt by the bank as well as the solid beat in Q2 CPI data, expectations for hikes this year have risen substantially, and barring any major risk off tones we would expect a favourable environment for the NZD going into the August meeting. For the CAD, the fact that we it was one of the biggest position unwinds makes a lot of sense, as it shared a similar fate with the other two biggest net long currencies among the majors (EUR and GBP). The bias for the CAD remains tilted to the upside, but with a lot of the positives already reflected in the price, it will take a lot more positive news to see more meaningful upside in the currency. For the AUD, the virus situation is a negative driver to keep on the radar. Two of the largest cities in the country is already in snap-lockdowns, and further aggravation of the situation could develop into a key sentiment driver in the short-term, so definitely one to watch. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY saw quite a sizeable lift in terms of positioning, with another big batch of short positions being dumped. The hefty increases in short-term positioning over the past few weeks was arguably driven by the fundamental outlook, partly driven by summer liquidity ramping up carry trade activity. Thus, the currency is always going to be vulnerable to see some of that unwind, especially when we have bouts of risk off flows as we’ve seen occur over the past two weeks. For the US Dollar, as the fundamental bias remains neutral and as we are well within the summer liquidity period, the main driver for the USD has been the incoming economic events as expected. This past week we had Fed Chair Powell’s testimony where his persistent dovish tone, despite rising inflation data, saw some minor downside in the greenback, but retail sales also saw some additional excitement. This week will be a very quiet one for the Dollar in terms of events, so be on the lookout for Fed speak, and also keep track of the overall risk sentiment. GBP: Doves turning into hawks. This past week saw some very interesting comments coming out from the more dovish leaning members of the BoE, with BoE’s Saunders paving the way expectations that the bank could announce an early end to their QE program at their next meeting. This saw decent upside in Sterling, as it confirmed the market’s ongoing expectations that the BoE will be reducing accommodative policy in the weeks ahead, but also due to the fact that these hawkish comments came from a dovish member of the bank. This week we look to comments from BoE’s Haskel who is considered as the most dovish member of the bank. If he paints a similar picture to that of Saunders, the markets will arguably be quick to price in a tapering announcement for the upcoming meeting. Keep in mind the upside in Sterling occurred at the latter part of the week which means the CFTC data does not reflect it. The big reduction in net-longs is in line with more unwind in the biggest net-long positions versus the US Dollar. EUR: Despite the big reductions we’ve seen in EUR net-long positioning, the currency remains the biggest net-long position versus the greenback among the majors. With the Dollar’s fundamental outlook turning more neutral, the outlook for the EUR remains tilted to the downside. Majority of the upside in the EUR from expectations about a EU economic recovery going in Q3 was already reflected in the price before the recent FOMC meeting, which left the EUR exposed to lots of downside from a positioning point of view. Even though the bias for the EUR remains weak bearish, the amount of one-sided price action post the June FOMC meeting has seen the currency lose a lot of ground, which means we do want to be mindful of some reprieve from some possible mean reversion. This week we have the July policy meeting which was made more important by comments from ECB President Lagarde who stated that markets can expect updated forward guidance at the meeting in line with their new strategic framework, even though Friday sources pieces suggest otherwise. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 July 2021.
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COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The AUD suffered the biggest outflow amongst the major with the CFTC data updated until Tuesday the 8th of June, which should arguably not be surprising given the prior outperformance in the currency before that happened. This week the focus for the AUD turns to the incoming Employment report where labour data has been touted by many as the most important consideration for the RBA regarding potential policy changes or updates. For the NZD we have Q1 GDP data coming up which should provide us with an interesting outcome on our AUDNZD short trade. The recent underperformance of the NZD has been quite surprising, and our view that the fundamental outlook points to further strength has been shared by numerous investment banks. We’ll see whether GDP data is what the NZD needs to move back in line with its underlying bias. For the CAD, positioning is something that we are focused on, especially with the CAD trading “elevated” against numerous currencies, we need to be mindful of some possible mean reversion. JPY, CHF & USD: Our fundamental outlook for the US Dollar has shifted from Weak Bearish to Neutral. The assessment of risk to the currency is more balanced in our view as we head closer and closer towards potential tapering by the Fed. Apart from that, real yields are expected to remain a key driver in the short-term and something we will use for potential short-term direction bias alongside incoming economic data points. This week, the main event for the US Dollar will of course be the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the elephant(s) in the room will be the massive upside surprises in US CPI readings compared to the FOMC’s March projections, as well as what the bank will have to say about tapering discussions (those ones that Fed Powell said they haven’t been having but the April minutes showed they have) For the JPY, the ongoing divergence between US10Y and the safe-haven currency will be a focus point of ours this week. As the Fed and quad witching is in the mix this week we need to keep safe-haven flows in mind this week as a potential supporting factor if equities see some jitters. GBP: Even though the bias for Sterling remains titled to the upside, as the third largest net-long position among the majors we do need to be mindful of the current short-term risks for the currency. We received confirmation that the UK’s planned reopening on the 21st of June will be delayed by four weeks. This was already touted last week so the impact might be lesser this week, and also due to the fact that it won’t derail the economic recovery which means the outlook is still favourable. However, coupled with the ongoing Northern Ireland Protocol issues with the EU we need to be mindful of some potential risk premium build up in Sterling which could translate into some short-term downside. We would consider any sizeable corrections as opportunities to engage from better levels, especially against the EUR and the JPY. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 8 June 2021.
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