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COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
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by thunderpips
14
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change once again among the majors after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. The recent comments from the BOC about the CAD’s strength are a reason for us to pay attention to current levels in USDCAD. Arguably a lot of the positives for the CAD is already reflected in the price, and the market will want to see more and more positive surprises to justify further moves lower so keep that in mind. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will remain on commodities, more specifically Iron Ore. China has become uncomfortable about the rise in commodity prices and is stepping in to try and curb the rise. After solid moves in recent months for Iron Ore some pullback is to be expected, but will be an important negative consideration for the AUD. For the NZD, this week we do have the upcoming RBNZ policy meeting. Going into the meeting, markets are expecting an upgrade to the economic outlook from the bank, but most are of the opinion that it’s too soon for the bank to change policy direction, at least verbally (bond purchases has been slowing recently). If the bank does bring forward rate hike expectations like that of the BOC, which is a slim possibility, that could of course create some upside volatility for the NZD. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. As the growth and inflation outlook remains positive for the US, the path of least resistance for yields remains titled higher which should keep the JPY lower apart from possible short-term risk off flows of course. For the USD, as we explained last week, the focus isn’t just on nominal bond yields but also on real yields, which has continued to remain very close to cycle lows as nominal yields have moved largely rangebound while inflation expectations have trended higher. Any change in real yields will be a very important consideration for the Dollar, as well as any further comments from FED members regarding tapering deliberations. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. The economic data last week (Jobs, CPI, Retail Sales and PMI’s) once again confirmed the market’s expectations of a faster and better-than-expected economic rebound in the UK. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson has warned that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: No surprise for the CAD to see the biggest net long positioning change among the majors, moving into second place below the EUR. The fundamental outlook for the CAD remains intact after the BOC’s recent hawkish tilt. However, it seems like the BOC has taken notice of the rapid CAD appreciation and have fired a warning shot last week and given the markets an indication that USDCAD is approaching levels that could impact export competitiveness. Even though this doesn’t change the bullish outlook, it does pose a risk in the med-term. For the AUD, the focus in the week ahead will turn to jobs data but also the Iron Ore prices. After a stellar run to the upside, it seems that China has finally stepped in to try and cool down the meteoric rise by banning steelmakers in Tangshan City (14% of China’s steel production) from fabricating or spreading price-hike information. The move worked as Iron Ore prices took a tumble, but it’s worth noting that both Iron Ore and Copper saw some profit taking and overdue mean reversion earlier last week as well. With strong trends like these, seeing some pullback is to be expected, and as such they will be sensitive to potential bigger price reactions on news like this. For now, the med-term bias for the AUD remains intact, but this is something to keep in mind as a substantial correction in Iron Ore is expected to weigh on the Antipodean currency. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-Year Yields and US Real Yields remain the biggest focus for the USD and the JPY. After the big beat in US CPI, we saw US10Y resume its med-term uptrend, and saw USDJPY push higher as well. As long as US10Y remains firm, we would expect that to put more upside downward pressure on JPY. As for the USD, a key focus point right now is real yields. A move higher in nominal 10-year yields will not be a lot of help for the reflation-battered Dollar if real yields continue to stay suppressed. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Recent data has made it clear that the economic recovery is well underway, and markets are looking towards this week’s economic data to confirm that view. The wild card to track in the week ahead is the virus situation as new cases of the Indian variant has been a concern. PM Johnson warned on Friday that the variant could pose a challenge to their reopening plans. For now, everything seems under control, but this is a development to keep close track of. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour and as market participants look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift lockdown restrictions. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 11 May 2021.
by thunderpips
1
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: A solid week for the CAD in terms of price action means the biggest increase in positioning among the majors should not be a surprise. The BOC’s hawkish tilt has put the CAD in pole position for the bullish currencies among the majors, and as long as policy normalization continues, and the data stays positive and Oil prices remain buoyed that should stay intact. The jobs data was a minor set back for the CAD on Friday, but a miss was largely expected due to the impact of the virus and should not be enough to change the med-term outlook for the BOC or the CAD. In terms of incoming events, the only noticeable one for AUD is the incoming Annual Budget Release, but apart from that main focus for the high betas should be overall risk appetite. JPY, CHF & USD: What a move in the Dollar after Friday’s NFP! Not surprising though as the med-term bias remains titled to the downside for the greenback as long as the Reflation and Global Synchronized Recovery driver stays intact. The more interesting development was the downside in the Dollar despite a solid push higher in US10Y. It’s important though to remember that even though yield differentials are important drivers for currencies they are not the only drivers. For the past couple of months, the correlation to real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) is another important driver alongside that of Eurodollar futures. On Friday, Eurodollar futures shot up and Real Yields shot down after the NFP jobs report, all in all a strong bearish cocktail for the Dollar despite US10Y moving up. This week the attention turns to CPI on Wednesday as well as Retail Sales on Friday. In terms of the CPI event, it will be important to keep the Real Yield dynamics for the Dollar in mind, as a strong CPI print might not necessarily translate into Dollar strength if inflation expectations outpace US10Y and pushes real yields lower. GBP: The move we’ve seen lower in CFTC positioning for the GBP is mostly as a result of the downside price action we saw at the end of last week which was most probably due to some de-risking going into this past week’s BOE and elections. The fundamental bias remains unchanged and tilted to the upside for Sterling. Even though the BOE did move along with tapering, it was framed as a technical adjustment, but the bank did provide a more upbeat outlook for the economy and the recovery. With the proximity risks out of the way we would anticipate the week ahead to see a continuation of the upward trajectory barring of course any negative surprises. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now and waiting for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 4 May 2021.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The latest CFTC data for the CAD was surprisingly low with the most recent update, especially after the data included the price action following the BOC’s hawkish tilt. However, what was not reflected in the data has been made up in good measure in the price action we saw this past week as the CAD’s fundamental realities kicked into high gear and pushed CAD higher. For the AUD and NZD, the week does hold some risk events to take note of such as quarterly Employment data for New Zealand as well as a press conference with Governor Orr after the release of the financial stability report. For the AUD, we also have the RBA meeting coming up on Tuesday where market participants are not expecting anything new from the bank. Furthermore, the increased volatility in equities over the past few days means that we do of course want to be mindful of any fluctuations in risk tones as they remain a key external driver for all three the high beta majors. JPY, CHF & USD: What to make of the Dollar on Friday? Firstly, technically speaking the currency was looking a bit stretched to the downside after having almost three straight weeks of selling. Secondly, the recovery in US 10-Year bond yields provided a welcome reprieve for the greenback. Thirdly, the more hawkish comments from FED’s Kaplan on Friday also spurred some upside for the Dollar by talks of tapering discussions and rates lifting off in 2022, but keep in mind that Kaplan is considered as a hawk so even though these comments are positive, they are not as positive when compared to coming from someone like Powell or Clarida for example. After a pretty impressive run higher for the JPY, the move higher in US 10-Year bond yields once again showed the strong inverse correlation between the two assets with the JPY pushing lower this week despite some risk off flows seen in equities (which is usually expected to be positive for safe havens). In the week ahead, focus for both the USD and JPY will remain firmly fixed on bond yields as well as the overall risk sentiment in the market. GBP: GBPUSD took quite the tumble on Friday as the Dollar gained some momentum, and also suffered against other major counterparts as well. The fundamental bullish outlook remains intact, and this week attention will turn to the BOE policy decision coming up on Thursday, as well as the UK’s local elections and Scottish Parliamentary elections. Between the elections and the BOE, the more important event will arguably be the BOE where there is a growing number of participants calling for a potential tapering announcement by the bank this week, but there is a few caveats to this which is important to keep in mind. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. Friday did of course see some overdue correction playing out for the USD which saw a sizeable push lower in the majors across the board. As the fundamental outlook remains unchanged in our view, the Dollar’s movements will be very important for the single currency this week. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 27 April 2021.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: The biggest mover among the three high beta majors was the CAD which showed a fairly big increase in net long positioning of +10K. What is even more interesting about this is that it occurred before the BOC meeting on Wednesday, which means this Friday’s data should show yet another big increase in positioning after the hawkish tilt from the BOC. In terms of the AUD, positioning is back in negative territory after a -5K position change, fairly large and most likely due to the exacerbated downside we saw the AUD two weeks ago with the risk off flush in risk assets which hit the AUD much harder than it’s high beta counterparts. This week will be fairly light on the data front for the CAD and NZD with CPI data in focus for the AUD. We would expect the CAD’s upward momentum to continue after the BOC’s meeting but as always external factors such as risk sentiment and oil will be important considerations. JPY, CHF & USD: US 10-year bond yields remains one of the key drivers for the USDJPY and a key asset to watch for the next direction of the pair. With the overall global risk outlook as well as the med-term bias for US10Y still tilted higher, we still expect USDJPY to drift higher and would keep a close eye on the price action for additional upside opportunities. As for the Dollar, not much has changed. The med-term bias remains titled to the downside, and the move lower in US10Y has certainly also helped to push the greenback lower. This week we do have the upcoming FOMC meeting as well as Q1 GDP. Even though markets are not expecting a lot from the FOMC there are a few caveats that could create some volatility in the Dollar. GBP: Sterling finally started to show more signs of life this past week, but once again did not manage to take advantage of that strength versus the EUR. The market’s continued expectations for a recovery narrative in the EU has continued to keep the EUR supported, alongside a continued push lower in the USD. The fundamental outlook for the GBP remains unchanged, and with some of the upside positioning being unwound, we would expect the GBP to resume its med-term upside momentum. However, it does seem like markets might be waiting for a catalyst in the short-term to do so. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few sessions as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. The one positive though, and one of which a lot of participants are banking on right now, is that the vaccination roll out is gaining some positive momentum, and if the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could see a faster recovery in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compared that from a monetary policy normalization point of view, it will still be far behind that of the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now, waiting for more information before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 April 2021.
by thunderpips
4
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 13th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, even after the recent push higher in the likes of the NZD and AUD. For this week the majority of the attention will turn towards the Canadian Dollar where we will have the BOC's policy and rate decision. Just two weeks ago the expectations that the BOC will look to start tapering their QE program was set in stone, but recent rising virus cases and lockdown restrictions has seen some participants push back these expectations. Apart from that, the past few sessions the overall global risk outlook has been the main external driver for the AUD & NZD and without any major surprises we would expect the two antipodeans to be largely driven by the risk outlook. JPY & CHF & USD: With the US10Y pressured in the past week the JPY was quite resilient among major currencies despite overall positive risk tones. As yields find some equilibrium it will be interesting to see whether the JPY takes its cue more from risk sentiment in the weeks ahead as the strong inverse correlation between US10Y & JPY has been moving lower recently. The USD once again saw downside despite further solid econ data and largely followed US10Y's path lower. However, it was quite noticeable that the Dollar didn't fall further on Thursday despite US10Y pushing lower with quite some pace. Friday did see US10Y finding some reprieve alongside the USD. Even though the Dollar's med-term bias remains titled to the downside, we should keep in mind that yields have not been the only driver for the Dollar over the past few weeks as the overall reflation narrative remains a big focus as well. As the USD's slide coincides with lots of exuberance in equities and VIX treading water on key support, we do need to keep a close eye on overall risk sentiment for some potential mean reversion at some stage, and if equities do have some short-term deleveraging it could see some USD safe haven flows. GBP: The two favourites among the FX majors from a fundamental outlook point of view has been the CAD and the GBP, and it's both of them that has been the weakest among the majors over the past two weeks. Whenever we see price action like this we need to ask ourselves whether anything has changed that could jeopardize the fundamental outlook, and despite some initial concerns about the AstraZeneca vaccine, the main drivers for expecting further upside in the Pound is still intact. However, we also don't want to catch falling knives. In the coming sessions, either waiting for price action to confirm the bullish trend is back in focus or waiting for a positive catalyst to driver the Pound higher seems like the best course of action in the short-term. EUR: The upside in the EUR this past two weeks has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus. Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany". However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up. But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 13 April 2021.
by thunderpips
COT CURRENCY REPORTOverall: With the CFTC data updated until 6 April the AUD showed the biggest decrease of (-8K) and the JPY showing the biggest increase of (+1K). AUD, NZD & CAD: Positioning data for the AUD, NZD and CAD updated until the 6th of April still shows more room to run to the upside for the three high beta commodity-sensitive FX majors, especially after the recent push lower in the likes of the NZD and AUD. This week's upcoming RBNZ meeting is expected to largely be a non-event and should not have much to change the med-term outlook for the bank or the NZD. Some meaningful data to watch in the week ahead will be Aussie Jobs data as well as important Chinese growth data for the AUD. As for the CAD, Friday's stellar jobs report should have solidified the market's expectations that the BOC will move forward with tapering QE at the April meeting, and should provide upside momentum for the currency running into the policy meeting. JPY & CHF & USD: The JPY saw a modest come back in positioning, which was to be expected as the currency saw a 96K positioning change going from a +29K net long to a -59K net short position in 6 short weeks. That registered as more than a 4 standard deviation move two weeks ago, and is still showing a -3.3 z-score on a 1-year look back with Friday's CFTC update. The big driver for the JPY remains the US10Y, which means this week's upcoming US bond auctions (10- year and 30-year), as well as incoming CPI data will be very important for the US10Y and thus the JPY. With yield differentials one of the key drivers* of the Dollar in recent weeks, the incoming US data points will be the main focus point for the greenback in the week ahead, alongside overall risk appetite as the better than expected US data and a sizable unwind of the Dollar's oversubscribed short bets have arguably turned the attention for the Dollar back to the med-term bias. GBP: The past few trading sessions have not been kind to the GBP, as short-term concerns about the Astrazeneca vaccine has weighed on the Pound. However, arguably the biggest driver for Sterling has been cross flows as EURGBP saw a sizable squeeze in the extended bearish trend. Even though the bias for EURGBP remains titled lower in the med-term, any extended trend is always susceptible to violent squeeze when reaching key areas of support or resistance. The challenge with a squeeze is that we don't know how long it will last, and with moves like these it's best to either wait for a new fresh bearish catalyst to use as a trigger for new shorting opportunities, or to wait for the pair to break back below key technicals levels with some follow through. EUR: The upside in the EUR this past week has gone against the overall downside bias for the single currency which has been based on the EU's slower vaccine roll out; rise in virus cases; new lockdown restrictions; growth differentials; monetary policy expectations; and fiscal stimulus. Some have argued that the big unwind in net long positioning over the past few weeks have seen the EUR reach an equilibrium as most of the negatives mentioned above should already be reflected in the price at this point. ING has also noted that there is a possibility that "traders wanting to jump in early on the EUR recovery story – more signs of which should emerge through the quarter as, for example, vaccination programs gain pace in the likes of France and Germany". However, in our view it's far too early to be buying the EUR en masse in the hopes of an eventual catch up in vaccines and growth, especially on the growth side with the recovery fund yet to be ratified and large parts of the EU still under lockdowns while the UK and US is opening up. But, as we noted last week, the sensitivity of the EUR to the Dollar also explains some of the upside in the EUR, and remains a key factor to watch in the week ahead. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 6 April 2021.
by thunderpips
2
Week Ahead: COT Currency ReportOverall: With the CFTC data updated until 30 March the EUR showed the biggest decrease of (-19.5K) and the AUD showing the biggest increase of (+6K). AUD, NZD & CAD: Positioning still favours further upside for the three high beta FX majors. The strong push higher in global equities last week is another positive catalyst to keep in mind in the week ahead. Even though we maintain an upside bias for the AUD, NZD and CAD, but given the BOC's recent action to discontinue some of their market functioning programs and the complete reversal of NZ10Y after it's recent push lower we would prefer the NZD and CAD above the AUD as we also have the RBA this week which could influence the AUD. The med-term bias for all three remains titled higher. JPY & CHF & USD: The big deviation in positioning we mentioned in last week's report saw some mean reversion in the JPY albeit it only minor moves. With risk appetite taking a more positive turn at the latter part of last week, and with the solid economic data points from the US, the risk on added additional pressure on the JPY, but positioning still has some possible room left to unwind which is a risk to our medterm downside bias. The Dollar's price action at the latter part of last week was very important. Despite the best ISM Mfg PMI since 1984 and despite a solid NFP print which came in much higher than expectations, the Dollar failed to sustain any meaningful upside, and instead continued it's overdue mean reversion to the downside. This might be the first signal that the positioning-related squeeze might be fizzling out and could potentially be the market turning it's attention back to the reflation narrative as we head into the highly anticipated Q2 of 2021. GBP: The bias for Sterling remains firmly titled to the upside, we maintain an upside bias in GBPUSD, especially with the Dollar's soft price action following last week's solid data points. The calendar will be very light for Sterling, so the overall focus will arguably fall predominantly on price action in the EUR and the USD. EUR: The reasons to expect downside for the EUR has been on the rise recently. Whether we consider the vaccine roll out, or recent virus numbers, or lockdown restrictions, or relative growth dynamics, or policy normalization expectations, all the above point to further downside for the EUR versus the USD and GBP, as well as the high betas. Despite shedding a lot of net long positioning in the past two months, the EUR remains the largest net long position among the majors, which means there is quite a bit of room to run to the downside if the above concerns continue to pressure the single currency. However, the one caveat to the EUR is it's sensitivity to the Dollar. With the Dollar pushing lower we've seen the EUR breathe a sigh of relief, and as long as the Dollar remains pressured we could see the EUR gaining some upside momentum. This report reflects the COT data updated until 30 Mar 2021.
by thunderpips
5
GBP USD - Risk on scenario Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on or risk off?Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
by LupaCapital
AUD JPY - ShortWe saw in our private analysis the pair hit the monthly zone and reject strongly. We took a good sell from 75.4 and closed at 73.00 but kept one position open. Onto the cot data: However the Aussie has had orders shorted for the past 13weeks. Long Short Total %Long %Short JPY Avg_13 53,429 27,665 81,094 66% 34% AUD Avg_13 25,870 59,197 85,067 31% 69% What can we see technically? - Daily bullish but breaking momentum with the touch of 74.4 zone + - weekly correctional bullish - bounce from the monthly supply . - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct with the Aussie but also added from the Yen too. - we have made a good impulse and now correction and next impulse is beginning. - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the downside Where to enter? Follow your plan we entered at 75.4 and 74.04 level as we could see these zones lining up with our analysis Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced. KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Thanks, Team Lupa.
by LupaCapital
BTC- New trend in the development...? (sentiment, liquidity)BTC is off to the good start this year! Can it last though? I will spare you the head and shoulders bottom. Let's focus on the sentiment analysis because I think it provides important clues for the potential trend reversal. It is good that BTC broke out of the 6 months downward channel with above average volume on the daily timeframe and also managed to bursted through two resistance lvls in the process. Both are good indicators of potential trend reversal. This price move will be more convincing If the price can manage to close the daily above 8.2k to 8.3k On the fundamental side, Iran news and all-time high hashrate might have something to do with this price spike or it might be the pure technical move. It is still too early to rule out the possibility of liquidity raid even though I suspect most of the shorts at this lvl have been taken out already during last year's Oct price spike. Quick glance at the latest COT report about CME futures indicates that institutional players are still overwhelmingly net short, which indicates the ongoing distribution process. I am waiting for the Bitmex funding rate's green bar to go higher, which could signal the potential bullish sentiment. Backwardation suggests that investors still believe that BTC price will keep going down. Again, bummer here. That being said, it is worth noting that all these sentiment indicators are lagging so it is better to check them again next week if the price momentum continues. I will pay attention to the open interest and volatility and be wary of any big orders in the orderbook in the upcoming days. IF BTC can manage to attack 8.8k to 9.2k and consolidate around that price range, then the bull reversal might be on the horizon. If the price stalls around 8k, it could be a good time to buy on the pullback. Oh! Iran just fired missiles to US bases! If you buy into the notion that BTC is the digital gold and is uncorrelated to the stock market (we could use more evidence on the correlation), then that is one more reason to be bullish on BTC.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Libratus
2
Some Uncertainty Shorting the EUR/GBP Short EUR/GBP @ 0.86100 SL - 0.87850 TP1 - 0.85710 TP2 - 0.85200 The COT reports below are a bit unclear although they show more entities shorting the EUR. ------NON-COMMERCIAL---|---COMMERCIAL -------LONG------SHORT--|---LONG-----SHORT GBP 21,400 94,000 183,500 109,600 EUR 147,000 228,000 265,000 222,400 The market is very volatile due to the upcoming Brexit news. Trendline does show a retracement to the 61.8% soon, hopefully after i reach my TP1, possibly TP2 as well. Using minimal risk, very small lots. *IF/Once TP hits, I am placing a long to reach that 61.8% level @ 0.87900 which I'm almost positive is where it's heading.
Short
by aromanFX