Get started

Count

Bitcoin's Bearish Ascending Triangle 2020-04-01 - Which Way?Hi all, Here we find ourselves still in limbo mode near the bottom of the structure from early March. It appears that Bitcoin is creating a bearish ascending triangle structure with a little bit more room to move up. However the global trend is still downward. The next few days will be critical to see if the the market action turns into a bullish reversal or breaks down continuing the bearish trend! Watch the trend across multiple time frames! We have multiple triple RSI tops forming which is indicative of bear strength as well as short term bearishness with 1H MACD wavering and high Stochs on shorter term time frames. 45 min | 3H | 12H | 3D Happy trading! P.S. Please like and follow! I am a simple market analyst - not a financial analyst fortis Fortuna adiuvat - fortune favors the brave Learn to trade: cliftrade.com
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by jollygreen
The Secrets to Forex & the Delusion Game (pt.2)Be sure to read my prior article first. Chapter 1: Persistence is Another Word for Probability Okay, so we're finally back in action. Last time I edged you pretty far but now we can finally get some release. We determined that managing uncertainty (risk management) is the key to 'winning at losing' and paradoxically becoming a profitable trader of derivatives. I explained that your trading system, your directional biases don't matter. It's garbage anyway. All that matters is the biases and systems of the institutions, commercials, sophisticated investors, etc. They all have their own indicators and forecasting methods for directional picks, and they all compete. You can't copy those systems because they are either company property (expensive R&D afterall), and even if you did, you would still be unprofitable, they barely win 60% of the time. But what if we copy their risk management strategies? And what if many of them were similar? And fairly transparent? Why would risk management be similar (and transparent) but speculation strategies vary? Because they manage millions and sometimes billions of dollars (in winning and losing market conditions). Many of them have been doing this for decades, some over a century. Some of them, before fiat money was even a thing in your country. Their credibility comes from safety and persistence. That's why so many commercials have generic 'strong' or 'surviving' implied names that are often related to stones, ships, or geographic (sounding) landmarks. "We will weather the storm and protect your wealth." At least that is the image they want to sell to prospective investors. No Lucky 777 Capital or eBet69 Capital. In addition, they earn from account management itself, primarily from fees. It is inherently intuitive that they would be the experts of managing and protecting your wealth. Their first priority and specialization, is the risk management of capital, a preservation principle. Not highly speculative market returns. Chapter 2: The Emergence of Estimation Now, before I go into detail about the popular risk management methods they use, first we need to broach some psychology and philosophy here. This will help you understand why risk management tends to be more similar at the top, when 'big money' is involved. And why generic advice like 'holding through downturns' or 'buying low' tends to come from the wealthiest and most successful investors. Most of our society attempts to manage uncertainy with speculation. At a macro level, the current paradigm is to make ESTIMATES of SPECULATION. You gather a bunch of 'speculations' (predictions/bets, IE on price level, etc) from credible sources, and find a way to estimate the best value or central tendency. The major systems (governments, markets, organizations, etc) in our society operate on estimation. They develop a likely zone or range of possible outcomes. Now the way this information is presented (and they way experts/speculate) is under constant debate at the pinnacle of our most influential companies, sports teams, armed forces, intelligence agencies, universities, etc. However, estimation overall remains a popular and effective tool, primarily in number heavy domains like markets or weather forcasting (the only field where moon cycles can yield accurate predictions). This is the line of thinking that gives us fair value models (or the center of gravity notion). Many traders like to focus on PA (price action) analysis, claiming incorrectly that this is a pure and indicator-free approach to studying the market. The 'candle' itself is a form of fair value presentation, delivered via the OHLC indicator many retail traders use. The candle is used as a form of estimation found commonly in scientific articles as well (though with additional features). It's just another form of statistical analysis derived from an estimation formula. 1. Determining the 'fair value' price point or the center of price gravity is the most important technical effort you can undertake for your trading strategy. 2. Determining extremes or ranges against that 'fair value' price point is the secondary technical effort that will help you build proper limits to risk. Speculation has the property of delusion, it is characteristically delusional, and that is precisely why it is persistent and predictable. Guessing about things you can't yet experience goes against scientific paradigms. You can't observe the future, you can't test it, you can't repeat it, etc. Only with induction, a sort of coherent or emerging 'catalogue of historical delusion', can we come to terms with speculation as socially and sometimes scientifically (in number heavy environments), acceptable behavior. --- Not to wax too philosophical, but the Problem of Grue highlights the weakness of induction as a knowledge tool. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast is a legendary epistemology book and I strongly recommend it as it serves as a nice auxiliary text for Boyd's word-shy OODA loop concepts. What's important to understand here is that while speculation is essentially irrational, it is still the standard behavior in markets; and therefore, we have to accept irrationality as the status quo. That's the motivation, the prioritization for risk management; to help avoid or deal with all that disorder and confusion and inaccuracy that occurs. It's a game to navigate delusion. And a final heads up for the big thinkers out there, To greatly summarize Boyd: he revealed that the *speed* at which you can calculate 'based on observation' can result in a perfect edge in any form of competition. In other words, you gotta be able to find the center of price gravity and determine the extremes of that price point as quickly as possible, or at least faster than others. This is why technicals, ie statistics, are necessary in risk management (but not for picking directions). You can't calculate risk once a year, you can't calculate it in your head (for markets). It needs to be done in near realtime. Chapter 3: Recommended Models I will cover these in far greater detail in the next article, but here is the list of key models (and technicals within) I recommend to meet your trading objectives (long-term profitability) as a spoiler. A lot of these will look familiar. Most of you have probably used a few (and lost money). That will change when I show you how to use them correctly. Center of price gravity (how to find it): Bollinger Bands Seasonality Models Major Moving Averages Point of Control VWAPs Linear Regressions Channel Extremes (how to reduce risk and increase profitability): Bollinger Bands (standard deviation) ATR Bands Channel VWAPs VaR OI Historical Models Currency Options Traditional Arbitrage Session Psychology Carry Hedge There is one final key to all of this, which involves the clever application of these models. To demonstrate why some models work better in different situations/timeframes/sessions, I have to jump into some of Bohm's work. It all has to do with disorder, which isn't 'orderly enough' to be consistently disorderly. That is, unless you know all the secrets. See you next time.
Education
by CountofCoins
3
BNB - Bullish Outlook (Elliot Analysis) If BTC is truly starting the uptrend after the recent correction, BNB looks like it might have completed the correction, and the following wave 1 of the larger wave (3). Which would mean it is due for a requisite correction (an ABC down likely to .618 fib or lower). After which we can expect a steady climb up towards new all time highs in 2020. This is my primary Elliot Count. Not a financial advice, just my analysis. Best of Luck!
BINANCE:BNBUSDLong
by Elliot618
BNB Elliot Waves Analysis - Bearish My Elliot Count of BNB So far we are still in a correction looking to complete the final wave 5. I used numbers instead of letters so that it is easier to understand for those not familiar with Elliot count. The waves seem to fall into place very neatly, the latest bullish momentum appears to be in 3 waves up, waves A and C both have 5 wave sub-counts. Since its a 3 wave move up, we are now expecting 5 more waves down to complete the final leg of C. Ignore the time frames as this can take from a few weeks to a few months. In my opinion we are going down to retest the height of the previous bottom. This whole move down I believe is wave (2) of the bull market, after this correction ends we can continue to wave 3 into late 2020 which I believe will take us to new all time high's on BNB. I drew a small birds eye view snapshot of where we are in the correction currently to give you an idea, hope it helps some people get the bigger picture. I am bearish short term and bullish long term. Not a financial advice, just my analysis. Good luck!
BINANCE:BNBUSDLong
by Elliot618
Bitcoin - Welcome to Bull Town wave countHi guys , i had to review my wave count after this strong bull run we had , it has impulsive look and it didnt break the low yet showing divergences. I believe thats the first leg of bull market , invalidation level is the red line , any ticker below the last low around 5.800 zone would invalidate this count. Possible however remains the triangle X (green) scenario which would give us a corrective bullish pullback wave B with the A already being unfolded and the C leg downside remains. However crypto is close or has already ended the so known "bear market of 2018". Goodluck!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by crikz
9
XAUUSD - Last breath before the fallhey guys , i was reviewing my count on gold lately since the failed triangle idea i posted earlier , i was expecting a bullish impulse C wave but it didnt look right. After some time i found out what's going on , we got a consolidation Wave B in triangle Formation on Intermediate Degree , with one swing left inside. I expect a bullish move to complete the last wave then a strong impulse downwards to complete the ABC corrective sequence. Price action diverges from the oscillator signaling something going on there , i believe this is it. Goodluck!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by crikz
2