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Counter-rally

SPY Ending wave v of (3) Bearish Reaction: Relief Rally (4) TBDMerry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a i-ii-iii-iv-v minor negative impulse wave terminating in an A-B-C flat correction, and the subsequent steep decline to the "Christmas Crash" on 24 Dec, consisting of (so far) a wave 1-2-3- incomplete impulse. It seems likely that minor wave v of Intermediate (3) has terminated at Monday 24 Dec prices, given Fib extension of wave iii in price and time after four down days; however, a real possibility of a v wave Extension Path exists, shown as Alternate Path in chart. Given weak price action, panic-level selling could drive price to 226.5 before a 4th wave bounce. Intermediate Wave (5) target is 219.5, possible extension shown could drive prices as low as 211.5 or less. NB: Minor wave iii dropped ETF 10 pips, minor v has taken 7 more. Third waves are never the shortest waves. Selling waves typically last 3-5 days. Should get a turn on either 26 or 27 Dec for a likely 0.382 Fib retracement. A higher lift is possible but unlikely, given EW alternating wave theory, we already had a strong lift in 2nd reaction wave with a 0.50 Fibo retrace (noted on chart), ergo, expect this 4th wave will be relatively weak. A more robust Retracement Bear Rally of the entire December impulse would be expected after the completion of the (5) Intermediate Wave in December's bearish impulse, target shown in blue box as a rough possible estimate of ~ 254 - 265. Following that countertrend Secondary Rally, expect a powerful and severe Secondary Bearish Reaction with another 5-wave Impulse down to price levels reaching back to 2016, or even lower, should Panic and Despair prevail. Longer-term, I expect only more Bearishness. In 2008, NAS lost 80%, Dow lost 45% and SPX went off over half. This one will be worse. After 86 years since the Crash ended in August 1932, prices reached astronomical new highs in September 2018. There is a distinct possibility that this represents the culmination of a Grand Elliott Wave Supercycle, postulating Grand Wave V completed on 3 Sep 2018; if so, the Great Bear may finally be coming out of hibernation. Of course, this is speculative theory and remains unproved, nonetheless, it is a fascinating concept: en.wikipedia.org As always, these posts are purely informative ideas, and do not constitute investment advice. GLTA!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
19
EURUSD Breaking Bad - Look to Short the next counter-rally EURUSD EUR broke important support at the 1.15088 line on Friday and then collapsed in a near straight line towards the next line of support at 1.13679, after making a low 19 pips above here so far. All these lines on DXY and Gold and here too are weeks old and none of these charts have had to be updated or amended....showing how slooooow most markets are compared to Bitcoin, which needs updating every day and somettimes more. There's a lot to be said for the quiet life. Bitcoin is Formula 1 full-on - or used to be : ( Everything else is so sloooow in comparison. Still believe that Bitcoin provides the best training ground for trading across multiple markets - but they require way more patience usually, that's all. The break on Friday looks like the prelude to bigger a break-down which should take EUR back down to 1.0855 and potentially as far back as 1.0490 through the Autumn/Fall period. In the very near term the nearest support potential lies at 1.1367 and extends down to 1.1316 which should create a counter rally back to the 1.148-1.1508 range at best before it falls away again - it may be quite dramatic when it does. Look to short the counter-rally with stops just above the 1.1532 level by a few pips. Can use the DXY chart as confirmation. TP 1 1.1118 TP2 1.0855 TP3 1.0490 For fastest updates in real-time please see Global Markets link at top left of main page.
Short
by sumastardon
3
EURUSD Counter-Rally to Upper Parallel Before next DeclineineEURUSD 30th May EUR has finally reached the month-long downside target at 1.1558 just in time for the end of the May. It actually exceeded the target by 45 pips before reversing higher and creating the first strong green candles of buying intent the market has seen for months now. But the counter rally is running out of momentum now whilst DXY holds above 94. Initial resistance for EUR lies here at the 1.1676 line and extends to the line above at 1.1731. This range, bounded by the two lines, is likely to prove insurmountable in the very near term - it will need DXY itself to break below 94 to break the upper parallel here - in which case the bears will retreat further here too and it should then rally 90 or so pips higher still to 1.1821 on more bear closing before falling away again. That looks to be best case scenario for EUR from here though. (At the same time DXY should then fall to test the 93.36-93.12 range and then bounce higher again.) So long as 94 holds up on DXY the Euro is likely to remain trapped within the medium term downtrend of April/May and likely to fall away from the upper parallel once more when challenged. But this time around the next sell off from the upper parallel of the larger impulse wave has a reasonable chance of creating a double bottom around the 1.1558-1.1540 range when it does fall away again - so any fresh shorts taken out around current levels need closing down again here. Any subsequent fall below 1.1535 will then be needed to trigger fresh shorts from here back to the 1.1318-1.1287 range.
Short
by sumastardon
2
EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates) we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that). But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at 1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within. Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East. It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and follow through from New York to push any higher still. Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the 1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the 1.1679-1.1665 range. With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm. However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall trend is likely on this pair. This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
by sumastardon
4
EURUSD: Lower Stop On Any Shorts/Use DXY as Signal ConfirmationEURUSD Update After rallying from the downside target off the 1.1721 line EUR has made it to the near term upside target centred around the 1.1821 line and been met with a barrage of persistant selling from there over the last 6 hours creating a series of rejection spikes above the line. If you shorted from here again lower the stop to 1.1787. It's been sold off in Europe all day - we need to see US follow through to know that downside pressure is still strong from here. Without it there's an increasing chance that it will push higher again from here before coming off again later - the next key area on the upside lies at 1.1831-1.1838 - a break above here needed to signal any further near term strength to 1.1915. The overall picture is still bearish for EUR but with DXY consolidating off 94 and with a little more unwinding there still likely it means that this this whipsaw back higher for a while yet before the downtrend resumes again
Short
by sumastardon
EURUSD Target achieved, counter-rally followed by more weakness EURUSD After another rally back to the upper parallel precisely EUR has fallen to the target at 1.1915 after an intra-day low at 1.1910. It should now attempt a feeble rally back to 1.1946 and the upper parallel at best before it falls away again. And unless it can find a double bottom at 1.1910 when it next comes off the likelihood remains that it will decline further still over the more medium term in stages to 1.1880 then 1.1815 and finally to 1.1721
by sumastardon
GE: Next buy points for counter-rallyGE Next Buy Points We never got a chance for a long down by the lows, but we did get the next one: the break above the small parallels channelling the tiny corrective move yesterday and Monday. It was a really good, painless/stress-free break too. So now, after GE filled a small gap (left on chart) it's coming back to support at 18.07 (tweaked by a couple of pips) and should hold up there and bounce again (low risk entry point with stops below 18.00 . If so, The next challenge should be at 18.46 (take profits) - we know that each of the last three pathetic rally attempts have all been 100 pips...which is exactly where 18.46 lies...then we only go long again once we can see 18.50 has been broken on upside, looking for 19.36 where look to close (just under here) and some may then wish to short with stops above. More as this develops. Better than Bitcoin today too! Old V new. Today the old won. There are some good trades here, between the lines - and so much less stressful than Bitcoin. For a quiet, steady calm trade GE wins hands down, no contest. Depends on your profile.
NYSE:GELong
by sumastardon
1