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Game Changer Movement Overnight - BTCUSDNeedless to say we've got our suspected new high I mentioned in my last update. Bitcoin rose from around 4800 to a high of near 5200 overnight (hopefully you re-entered the market (as I did) yesterday evening). This along with another 'event pair' appearing in the daily chart completely changes the game. Now, in the daily chart (top left), instead of a 12 point count we're looking at a 16 point count. So we need to see another event pair, one more pullback then one more new high. That puts this trade lasting at least a few more days. Moving to the 4H chart, we were at point 22, which is the rightmost red arrow pointing upward around 4800. Point 24 is the next valid end count for this chart but, since were expecting another daily event pair, we might see the 4H count hit 28 (the next valid end count after 24). Remember, were looking for trends to end on multiples of 4 no matter what time frame we're at. This is the M4 counting method, and this is how it works.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by trendlab2
Sidestepping the upcoming CT move in BTC/USDOur criteria outlined in the last post has been reached with BTC making a new high above 4470. So, just to recap, we're using a new counting technique called M4 which claims that trends turn on counts that are multiples of the number 4. So, at the daily time frame we have, with this new high, entered a possible end zone for a 12 point count - which is a valid end area because 12 is a multiple of 4. So at the daily scale we are counting from the 2975 low and we are attempting to locate the next counter trend movement which we are expecting will be comparable to the Sept. 18-20 CT (counter trend) which gave up over $600. Now that our daily goal has been meet, we move down to the 4 hour time frame (rightmost chart) and begin the count all over from the 4150 low - which is the last wave of our daily movement. The count here stands at 10 - so we're looking for one more pullback and new high to create points 11 and 12 and top out. If this pans out, then we will begin a candle following strategy once we're in the 4H end zone to exit the position. All we're doing is refining our exit by repeating the count analysis at a lower level or time frame. This will allow us, hopefully, to miss most of the CT move and buy back in at a lower level - since we're still expecting another daily wave upward. What if we get a 16 point count at the 4H level instead of the 12p we're expecting? This could very well happen, but hopefully price movement will clue us in before our exit. I can't name price levels at this point, we just have to wait and see where these events occur and what that is telling us count-wise.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by trendlab2
Nice example of triangle in a triangleNow the 4th wave in the EURUSD decline shows what could be a nice example of equivalent to an extension for triangles: a triangle in a triangle. Could sound confusing but its really simple: When a triangle is forming under elliott wave perspective, some times one of it's waves instead to be a zigzag (the most commonly accepted structure inside it) forms a new smaller triangle. This is more common with waves c, d or e. In this case we are witnessing a triangle as wave D) with all it's corrective structures ( A,B,C,D and E) inside it. Once finished the triangle that works as extension, the rest of the pattern continue as usual. As with extensions in other structures in a triangle, the pattern usually do not show more than one extension (but this is a guide and not a rule). What we should expect from here is more decline to complete the 5)) wave that is now forming.
by 7pasos
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