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Cov2

SINGAPORE & INDONESIA COVID-19 WavesWas in a number of private discussions over this week, and noted that there appears to be some dynamics in motion currently. Quick note that the Singapore 6th COVID wave is pretty turned over, according to the data provided publicly. It was a smaller wave compared to previously, as expected. However, the neighbouring Indonesia is currently in the midst of a wave and by similar projections (if relevant), the wave should peak out over the next two weeks ending November. Just an observation to share... PS. Apologies, I don't know why the chart looks so messy... it published differently, pre-cleaning up. Just look at the MACD curves and about 78% of the previous wave (MACD) as the target point for Indonesia wave to peak out.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 6I do not know the robustness of the data collected, as it differs greatly in different places. But with just a quick comparison: Singapore relaxed mask measures on 29 August, and from early September, there was already an uptick and the MACD histograms pointed out to late September crossover. Indeed, on 30 September, CNA reported a 40% week on week increase in COVID-19 cases. This wave/spike appears to be much less steep than the previous in June 2022. Nonetheless, with the F1 weekend happening, we might get a continuation of the spike for the month of October into November... a smaller but longer wave. Demonstrates yet again that the MACD histograms have an edge in projecting the time line to a spike in cases. IF only the people know about such a simple and yet effective tool. In the same comparison, the UK appears to have tapered down after a recent spike. However, noted that the daily numbers are actually weekly numbers. Demonstrates the robustness of data for reliability. Indonesia looks to be tapering off too, but Malaysia appears to be looking at a crossover by mid-October for a wave, albeit a smaller wave. Really, IF anyone still cares enough...
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 5 delayed onsetHeads up... Next Wave 5 is ON. Not expected to be bigger than the initial Omicron wave, or even Delta for that matter, but significant enough. This probably comes from imported cases with less screening and testing, as well as under reporting. The under reporting is messing with the data outcome and accuracy, also significantly dropping the heads up period... this wave 5 coincides with the end of school holidays, and returning travellers are very likely to bring more seeds back. Spike peaks should be end July early August period. May be extended with National Day holiday weekend in early August.
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by Auguraltrader
GLOBAL COVID-19 - Pushing the projection model Just an observation here... I have been posting much about using the MACD Histograms to project the spikes and waves of COVID-19 infections, given the data collated on this platform. So far, it has been pretty uncanny in accuracy. Just coming across the Total COVID-19 Confirmed Infections chart, there appears to be an odd divergence on the MACD histograms.. and this leaves me wondering if we are on the cusp of an unllikely surprise global surge, starting from April 2022. Am really left wondering if I am pushing this projection model too far, or it is telling us something... only time will tell, I suppose.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 UpdateAt the start of the year, it was clear that the Omicron wave (Wave 4) started, as heads up by the previous post. Wave 4 is ON now. In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022 In the last two months, we can see that the infection rate escalated after the turn into February. Depicted by the white and yellow line gradients marked under the MACD Signal line. No deceleration is observed yet... so expect at least a week or two before we see some levelling off (hopefully). Given the current measures, and population attitudes, I honestly do not yet see this abating soon... will check in again in a couple of weeks if there is any developments. #marapr2022
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by Auguraltrader
INDONESIA COVID-19 - 2022 Brings a new waveWhile the trend is currently down, the rate of its decline is tapering off. This model also projects that by Jan 2022, Indonesia will see a next wave. This is suggested by the MACD histograms projected trajectory on the weekly chart. We check in again next month and see if it is following the trajectory drawn... Meanwhile, IF they are tracking this, it would be about time to do something. However, it seems that opening up for the next two months might be the Trojan Horse receipt.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update XIIIn a rather surprising, and significant turn of events, when revisiting the daily counts (which are grossly under reported as many are asked to stay home with primarily ART testing; only PCR positives are logged) there appears to be another kink in the trajectory. Earlier, the model projected a tapering of the numbers. This was also modelled in line with the experience of Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India. Two factors seemed to have not so relevant... the population density in built up areas in Singapore is much higher than any of these countries. Also, the measures imposed are rather different. And these two might be the crux of the kink, dragging along a sub wave, which in my humble opinion is probably a lot steeper, but appears less aggressive on the MACD histogram. Taking these into consideration, the model is projecting a longer run, with a less steeply rising histogrm. This would easily push the tapering off into December, if at all, else into 2022. Stay safe people... do decide to do what you think is necessary. Take very good care of yourself and especially of your family. Do take time to check into an earlier post at the end of June 2021... something was clearly indicated, and showed its face about a month later. Meanwhile, at that time, measures were relaxed and people got optimistic, perhaps a tad too early. Clearly, the model works, and this is yet again telling us something. We are still behind the curve.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update... Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long... Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly. Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks. Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate. On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here... It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing? If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...
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by Auguraltrader
USA COVID: Watch out!Was just speaking to a good buddy who saw an interview where someone said that in a few weeks, the Delta wave would be over. I pulled out the chart, and by any measure, it does not appear so! The only time this model failed was the Singapore KTV Club surge, which is an anomaly, and a gamechanger... much as an awakening call. Otherwise, it has been pretty darn reliable. Just hours ago... the CDC reversed its decision/recommendation on vaccinated people and mask wearing. Essentially, admitting that even vaccinated people can be infected, and spread the Delta variant. www.nytimes.com www.washingtonpost.com www.bloomberg.com Check in again in September! Meanwhile... please take care and be safe.
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by Auguraltrader
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IXLike a bad zombie movie, the unexpected happened. The start of July appeared as if all was going well, and then suddenly, a new cluster was discovered and the depth and width of this cluster spread was far deeper and wider than anticipated. The model did not pick up this incoming, and for the first time it failed to. This has significance as it is an anomalous event, a game changer if you will, and in such circumstances, it tells a lot. The green arrows depict the speed of the spread, as well as the discovery by detection. Yes, we are getting better at detection, but only after knowing that there is a cluster. The green arrows point steeper upwards in the past two weeks and the weekly chart signals that this would take more weeks than previously, as well as there would be more affected than previously. The initial spike has not yet decelerated, but should be tapering off in the weeks to come, thereafter, we may or may not see smaller spikes with smaller clusters surfacing. Stricter measure have just been put in place and it would take months for this one to pan out, taking us to end August. Nonetheless, Singapore still remains very lucky by any comparison to the rest of the world. When luck runs out, we would not know, but this is a warning yet again that any complacency would be met with a viral comeback response. HODL would be appropriate for this circumstance... stay well and safe!
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by Auguraltrader