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Coveredcall

Possible Trend Lines that Bears and Bulls Can Agree OnFirst off I was going to make this a private idea because it is long term.. and if you follow me then you know I DO NOT like long term predictions. Intra-day clues and signs are much more valuable to traders like me, but today's end was so crazy I thought it might be a move that is following a longer term trend. It definitely made me go "hmm". What Happened: Listed are trend lines that I think are possibilities. It is NOT a coincidence that we ended near the gap from last week... there are no coincidences in the market. This fits within a softer trend upwards. So Where to Now? From here we could get a bounce up (I like 288 pushing towards 292) or further down if we wish to test some important values. 283 right off the top of my head would be the next move, but there is still room further down if the market so desires. Bullish or Bearish? We should remain bullish on SPY until we close daily below the 20 period moving average. Now this does not mean that I am bullish every trading day, but on the grand scheme of things yes. Tomorrow I would say that a gap up is very possible but watch the Asian markets for an idea of what's to come. Could be up, down, sideways.. who knows! Please comment comment comment.. I can never have too much input on my ideas!! Also check out my previous ideas to see that I am a pretty good trader. I called this down movement today and I plan to forecast what's coming next as well. So give me a like and follow :D
AMEX:SPYLong
by itsQure
TUTORIAL: COVERED CALL STRIKE IMPROVEMENT VIA ROLL AND FINANCINGOne of the primary reasons people poo-pah covered calls is because they cap out max profit. There are two things these naysayers overlook and they are (a) you can roll out your short call for duration and credit, thereby decreasing your cost basis and increasing your potential max profit; and (b) you can always "finance" short call strike improvement, albeit at the cost and risk of doing an additive adjustment trade in the event that you can't improve the strike satisfactorily. Pictured here is a deep in-the-money SPY December 18th 255 covered call. If I do absolutely nothing, my SPY long shares are going to be called away, if not at expiry, then earlier by someone exercising their long calls. Say, however, I want to stay in the stock, as well as improve my cost basis and the short call strike such that my max profit potential is increased by the amount of strike improvement. As previously mentioned, there are a couple of ways to do this. The first is to look at merely rolling the short call out in time and examining whether the strike can be improved while still getting a credit. One thing you'll immediately notice when you do this with the December 255's is that the strikes are five wides so that if any improvement is going to be made, it will have to be from the 255's to the 260's or higher. With the December 18th 255's going for 50.85 at the mid, I'll have to look at 260's in an expiry in which they pay more than 50.85 to get a credit on the roll, and the first expiry in which that occurs is in January of 2022 where the 260 is paying 51.00 at the mid price. In other words, I'd have to roll the calls out a whole year to improve them by five strikes, all for a measly .15 ($15) credit. That being said, I also increase my max profit potential by the width of the improvement (5.00) plus the credit received (.15) or for a total of 5.15, so that is not entirely a bad thing were I to do that. It is also the most straightforward way to improve your short call strike without adding risk or tying up additional buying power. If, however, I'm not big on rolling out that far out in time, I can also looking at financing the strike improvement via an additive trade for which I receive a credit that exceeds the cost of the strike improvement, with the down side being that any additive trade has its own buying power effect and side risk. Here are a couple of examples: Roll the December 18th 255 up to the December 18th 265 for a 7.40 debit and sell the December 18th 240 put for a 7.64 credit. I improve the short call strike by 10.00 and receive a net credit of .24 (7.64 - 7.40). Net delta of the position increases from 20.99 to 42.18. Roll the December 18th 255 up to the December 18th 269 for 10.37 and sell the December 18th 240/343 short strangle for 10.44. Here, I improve the short call strike by 14.00, and receive a .07 credit to do it. The net delta of the position increases more modestly from 20.99 to 28.02 because the short strangle is delta neutral, with all of the net delta pickup coming from the roll of the short call.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by NaughtyPines
5
ASSIGNMENT: NIO SHARES/NIO FEBRUARY 21ST 5.5 COVERED CALLThis is a continuation of long-running trade that I kicked the can on. (See Post Below). With price finishing the day wayyy below my 10 short put, I will find shares in my account next week via assignment. In anticipation of that occurring, I previously sold a February 21st 5.5 call and have a cost basis of 5.22. I'm fine with being called away at 5.50 should that occur, but will continue to reduce cost basis in the stock going forward if that doesn't happen. Delta/theta: 62.98/.81 Extrinsic: .34.
NYSE:NIOLong
by NaughtyPines
3
BYND: DEC 20TH 80 COVERED CALL (REVISED)Posting a revised visual depiction of this trade (see Post Below) showing the 80 short call strike that covers the stock, plus the December 20th 115 short call I sold against on the post-earnings pop to $90 or so, along with my cost basis. With price breaking my short call here slightly, I may add short call to cut net delta in the position, particularly given the fact that background implied remains high (61.5%), earnings are in the rear view, and I don't have a ton of much else going on ... .
NASDAQ:BYNDLong
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: GLD OCT112/AUG 122 Diagonal / PMCCOpened a 'poor mans covered call' on GLD. Going long on this alternative asset class to diversify the portfolio. My overall bias is higher gold based on the technical price trend since 2016 and expect we'll soon see a reversion towards the mean/median price range. Bought the OCT 112 CALL at 86 deltas, 105 days to expiration as a stock replacement for 8.12 and sold the AUG 122 call at 26 deltas, 42 DTE for 0.67 net debt: 7.45. The debt paid is 75% the $10 width. breakeven: Long call strike price 112 + net debit paid 7.45 = 119.45 Max loss on setup: 7.45 Max profit on setup: width of call strikes - net debit paid = 2.55 ROC at max profit is 34% Credit premium on net debt = 9% Notes: If I don't close the whole trade before the Aug expiry (or the short call expires worthless) I can sell another call in the Sep cycle to further reduce my cost basis on the long Oct call. In comparison to buy the conventional covered call play on GLD would cost 11,880 - the 67 short call for 11,813, or use over 8000 in buying power. The call credit premium is a meager 0.567% return on capital. ------------------------- More info on this strategy : www.tastytrade.com
AMEX:GLD
by dime
2
OPENING: EWZ SEPT 31ST 31 MONIED COVERED CALL... for a 29.39/debit per one lot. Metrics: Max Loss: 29.39 per contract on setup Max Profit: 1.61 per contract on setup (5.48% ROC) Break Even: 29.39 on setup Delta: 37.54 Theta: 1.40 Notes: Roll the short call out on significant loss of value,* to maintain the desired net delta of the position, and/or to defend the break even. I would note a couple of things: (1) The Max Loss metric assumes you do nothing (no rolls) and that the underlying goes to zero, which is theoretically possible, but unlikely, since it's an exchange-traded fund made up of multiple moving parts, as opposed to being a single name underlying. (2) Similarly, the Max Profit metric assumes you do nothing, and that the underlying finishes above the short call strike at expiry. Rolling out the short call for credit decreases your cost basis and break even, and therefore increases your profit potential. The basic point of the strategy -- regardless of whether you go monied or sell an out-of-the money call -- is to reduce cost basis in the underlying over time without necessarily having to rely on favorable movement. Consequently, you can make money over time if (a) the underlying doesn't move; (b) the underlying moves in a bullish manner; or (c) the underlying moves bearishly --- as long as you are able to collect a credit for a roll of the short call. The only situations in which rolling produces diminishing returns is where (1) the underlying rips up such that the short call you're attempting to sell does not have significant extrinsic value, in which case, your best option is to exit the trade at or near max and re-up if a play remains attractive; or (2) where the underlying has lost so much value that you can't get paid for a reasonably delta'd short call no matter how far out in time you go. Whether you go monied or out-of-the money is, in part, a risk tolerance choice. The trade-off you make in going deeper is that you potentially give up some profit potential on setup in exchange for a more forgiving break even. The primary reasons I go monied over out-of-the-money with these: (a) I'm just looking for a "trade," not an investment. If I was eyeing the setup as an "investment" and wanted to remain married to the shares, out-of-the-money would probably be the way to go; (b) I'm looking to preserve capital in the setup. This usually occurs where the stock I'm married to has had a huge up run and rewarded me hansomely, but I'm worried about this being the potential end of the ride -- I drive the short calls into the money to give me better downside protection; and/or (c) I lack conviction that the underlying will maintain its current level. * -- The most often cited metric is to roll the short call when it's lost 50% of its value. However, a lot of the decision-making process behind whether to roll has to do with how much time is left in the setup. If the short call is at 50% max with four days to go and price is well above my short call, well, I just might want to let it play out. If I'm three days into the play and the underlying has dropped significantly, rolling out at that point makes more sense than waiting, since the underlying may continue to move against me and waiting to roll may not be beneficial for credit collection if that occurs.
AMEX:EWZLong
by NaughtyPines
4
HPQ covered strangle Rather than just holding HPQ stock with hope that it may go higher this year, collecting a 2.5% yield while waiting, I instead plan to sell options premium this week against my $22 cost basis for a higher return on capital. Implied volatility on HPQ is over 30% and rising as we near the earnings report date of May 29 after the close. Of the past 8 quarterly earnings reports, the stock has ended a few percent lower on only 3 occasions. I could sell the stock for a tidy gain around 24 where it reached a couple times already this year. The 24 strike at 21 delta means almost an 80% chance the call will expire worthless and I keep the credit of 25, or about 1.1% of the cost. Because after transaction fees, this credit is small, I'd want to instead A) sell the lower 23 strike at 36 delta for $50 credit, or B) also sell an 'out of the money' put for additional credit (forming a covered strangle) if I'm willing to add to the stock position at a lower price on pullback, or C) both. The trade order for a covered strangle would be something like : SELL -1 STRANGLE HPQ 100 20 JUL 18 23/21 CALL/PUT @1.00 Selling a covered strangle on HPQ is attractive for several reasons: although it means a higher chance of assignment fees at the 30 delta strikes, it brings in nearly 100 credit, which is 4.5% of the current spot price of HPQ (27% annualized). The HPQ daily options volume is only about 8,000 so the 'at the money strikes' closer to the current stock price are the most liquid and easiest orders to fill. At 21 a share adding another lot is a small commitment. Fundamentally, I believe the stock fair value is higher so I'm willing to risk adding another 1 lot of stock if the stock drops or holding if HPQ trades sideways. The price support around 21 looks solid on the stock going back almost a year. The current Trefis fair price estimate for HPQ is around $25. Based on the 2018 EPS estimate of 1.96, and a long term 5% EPS growth over next 3-5 years, my DCF model suggests a current fair value of $25.50- $27 range.
NYSE:HPQLong
by dime
SLV June 16 Covered CallBought two lots of SLV at 15.74 and sold June 16 calls for 38 ea (45 delta strike). The IV was >20% today. The position break even is reduced to 15.36 with a 4% max profit on the break even cost. At 60 days to expiry, this yields 25% at an annualized rate. Ideally the cost basis on the position can be further reduced after June with additional calls sold against the position in the months ahead. Thinkorswim analysis shows 60% probability of some profit. Precious metals don't yield, but covered calls can be used to generate income against an existing ETF position. Silver has been trading in an increasingly narrow range for the past year, and may continue to do so for some time yet.
AMEX:SLV
by dime
THE SHORT PUT-ACQUIRE/KEEP PREMIUM-COVERED CALL CYCLEI have touched on this topic before in separate posts, but thought I'd refresh the notion of what I like to call "strategic acquisition" here, since I get repeatedly asked about how I go about acquiring shares in an underlying I actually really do want to buy and hold, usually for an indefinite period of time (we're talking years here). The focus of these acquisitions is not on growth (although that's sure always swell), but on the dividends owning the shares provide plus any premium I collect that reduces my cost basis. This may seem "radical" ("What?! You're not acquiring the shares for growth potential! Ridiculous!"), but the fact is that you cannot count on growth ad infinitum , and if you're going to bail on your dividend earning positions "intermittently" as they appear to run out of steam to the upside, then the whole purpose for owning the shares in the first place -- dividends plus cost basis reducing short call premium -- is somewhat out the window. All that being said, here's the basic cycle: 1. Sell 30 delta puts.* Depending on your account size, how aggressive you want to be, and how patient you are, you can sell one contract, 45 days-'til-expiry or ladder these out in time (e.g., one at the November expiry 30 delta; one in the December at the 30; one in January at the 30). 2. Allow the short put(s) to go to expiry. (a) If price is above the short put at expiry, the short put expires worthless, and you keep the premium you received for selling it. You can then re-up the position in the next monthly at the 30 delta, and then lather, rinse, repeat the process. If you've laddered out; you can re-up in the back month at its 30 delta. (b) If price is below the short put strike at expiry, you are assigned shares, after which you proceed to sell call(s) against them to reduce your cost basis over time. I generally sell the 20-30 delta short call against, and then roll the short call for duration when it has decreased significantly in value or-- if it has been broken -- to keep it clear of current price (because I want to hold on to the shares; I don't want them called away).** You can naturally continue to sell short puts if you want to continue acquiring additional shares at lower prices. * -- Naturally, selling a given 30 delta may not be where you would want to ideally acquire, so having a fairly long list of underlyings with "ideal" buy points is a good idea. While you're waiting for some, others may be "ripe." For me personally, I generally stick to a small number of comparatively high yield exchange-traded funds -- e.g., EFA, TLT, IYR, SPY, but I'm fine with waiting months for potential buy points and/or am willing to sell 30 deltas on a quarterly basis as compared to forty-five days out in time to get strikes more distant from current price than a 45 day 30 delta would be (compare SPY November 17th 244 short put (28 delta) with, for example, the March 29th (Quarterly) 237 (29 delta)). ** -- When rolling a short call out for duration, you always want to roll for a credit. If you want to attempt to improve the strike, you generally have to roll out further in time to do this, which is naturally okay in this case, since you want to hold onto the shares for the dividends. However, you don't want to roll out further in time than you absolutely have to, and you may have to consider improving strikes a bit more incrementally than you'd like. I mean, who wants to roll out a year to get their calls clear of current price? (Extreme example, but you get the idea).
AMEX:IYR
by NaughtyPines
3
GILD Covered Call SOLD -1 GILD 100 17 NOV 17 90 CALL @1.00 Adjusted Cost Basis $87.70 Just a few hours ago I didn't see any chance of turning a profit on this investment any time soon. Unexpectedly the stock rallied over 7% today (now up 25% off lows) and above the average year end analyst target. Expected Outcomes: - With selling off the 'unlimited upside', if GILD is above 90 (19 delta strike) by Nov expiry and the stock gets called away, I'll at least have brought in 3.76% on my adjusted cost basis (plus dividend yield). - If the stock is under 90 by Nov expiry the call expires worthless and I keep the credit to reduce my cost basis, and sell another call. This is about 80% probable this point, at 10% below the 90 strike and more than 2 months to expiration. If the stock pulls back sharply I will likely buy back the call and walk away with most of the profit, and aim to sell another call on the next rally in GILD. I've been sitting on this dog for over a year, suffering through a 27% draw down at the low in June. The stock dividend yields 2.75%, which is at least something while you wait. The stock is well rated, excellent price to free cash flow, but a 'value trap' with questionable earnings growth long term. Some of the apparent catalysts for todays big up move were acquisition of KITE and FDA approval of new class of gene therapy drugs. So I jumped at the chance to make this into a profitable trade after waiting for many months. My main goals are to bring in cash flow, reduce cost basis, and reduce positive deltas to form a more neutral portfolio. Yes, it's entirely possible GILD could be worth double what I paid for it in a couple years and I'll have walked away with chump change. Or the market gets a long over due pullback and it's another year of sideways moves in the $65 - $90 range. Who really knows for certain what will happen?
NASDAQ:GILD
by dime