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Covid-2019

SPX: Correction incoming, setting up for new highs?Lots of dirt cheap buys out there in the market, but will it drop even lower? When it does recover, will the companies you invested in recover as well? Will the even be around to see it run? Its a very interesting time indeed. The catastrophe in 2008 definitely made some people very rich, lets all try to be in that boat this time around! The current trend looks like it may be approaching a correction here soon. It's had a steady climb since the beginning of April, and not my preferred time to enter a trade. RSI does not have bearish divergence yet, but you can see it is leveling off and losing momentum as price continues to rise. I've always relied heavily on RSI to indicate when we are getting close to the top or bottom of a trend. Hurdles incoming: Mid channel resistance, 200 EMA on the weekly. My prediction is that we will retrace to the golden pocket and/or bright green zone where we find a very strong looking confluence of support. This could set up a higher low and/or double bottom to really get us driving through into a bull run. If it fails, the 1800s may be in our sights.
TVC:SPX
by infbp22
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Currently price has failed to push through lower 3 times, respecting a level of support. USA has had good reportings, a decrease of Covid-19 deaths and infections with California and New York reporting a possible pass of the covid-19 high point. USA government is pumping money into the economy helping farmers, the middle class with stimulus checks and also helping small business with loans. The news has been healthy which has caused the economy to recover some what, it may all be a fugazzi since they are printing money and dumping it into the economy. Wer are currently in a overall bullish market flow currently, price has failed to push lower respecting area of support. I am neutral because 1. We can push lower to get some more demand before pushing higher. 2. We can push higher and break out of area, come back down for a retest and continue bullish uptrend. 3. We can push lower, and break area of support to continue retracement leg which is bearish. Lets see what happens!
by ceomejia
1
AUDUSD projection As AUDUSD hit a huge dip during the month of March 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak, we are now seeing it recover itself we are over currently over %50 recovery on its dramatic drop from March 2020. The month is now April we have seen market flow switch to a retracement on the daily, market structure however has not been broken, we might be retracing back to daily resistance. We are creating higher highs and higher lows, we now find ourselfs in a higher low, respecting trend line, creating a H1 Quasimodo, creating a break of market flow, retest and possible follow through. It is Sunday April 19th, which means that the market can go anyway, as it would always be that result but our job as traders is to piece together a high peobability trade and take it. This is my high probability trade. #AUDUSD #COVID-19 #PRE-RECESSION
Long
by ceomejia
GBPUSD AnalysisUsing the 4 hour & 1 Hour charts. I can see towards the tail end of last week the market started consolidating. However, we saw throughout the week a strong bullish trend, as hope around COVID-19 restrictions easing and economic hope, I believe we will see some strength in the Sterling. Using technical indicators, the Stochastic is showing the market is overbought and therefore reinforces a Sell position. You can see from my chart the Support & Resistance zones. What do you think?
Long
by Xpressforex
SPX 2020: CoviDebt Reset. History says markets should fall >50%? 2020 The Great CoviDebt Reset sees markets initially drop by -36%. FED pushes market back up by +33%, right near the monthly 20 EMA level. CB intervention continues to push markets higher which further widens the gap between the markets and economic reality. The last two major pullbacks during the 2001 tech bubble and 2008 global financial crisis saw >50% declines but 2020 has only seen a drop of 36%, thanks to the FED yet again stepping in with the largest stimulus in history. However, onlynusing the >50% declines in 2001 and 2008 as reference points implies we could see an additional 25% leg down from the March 2020 lows. Will the FED win in restoring total confidence in the face of creating the largest spread between markets and reality or will history intervene and see a >50% decline?
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by arigolden
1
Weekly Preview: Good News Keep Coming!The market is coming back to its previous bullish trend, two proves of that: - Nasdaq is already in neutral territory YTD - Volatility is around 48%, well below its peaks - Some companies, specially American technology are regaining ground effectively sooner than expected which is also good news. The two pillars within this environment that are working are two: 1./ Central bank aid (this was expected to work immediately) Stimulus from central banks and governments has brought confidence to the market 2./ Covid-19 numbers Trend of better daily numbers of new cases are consolidating and some businesses are starting to reopen - Bearing in mind this, the market doesn’t react to an economy, it foresees what the economy will do and act base on that. Current Context: March was harmful, April is better with consolidation taking place. Even times are going better than expected with numbers improving faster than expected. Again, Nasdaq has already recovered those YTD loses and this is important because normally it brings the rest of indexes with it. First the DOJ, which represents more classic companies with high dividends, and after Europe. Then, short term facts are being positive too. 1. Gilead Sciences has reported successful treatment of Covid patients and can be a ray of hope. 2. American attitude, they are focused in reopening the economy and that creates big expectations. To finish, we´ll have some economic indicators with more government meetings that will still bring more confident to the market and strengthen this faster than expected recovery.
FX:NAS100Long
by PepeMafia
GILD Looking for a Long Entry After the Gap UpSUMMARY: Looking for a long entry on Gilead Sciences (GILD) after the gap up on news of a COVID treatment. HEADLINE: Looking for a Long Entry After the Gap Up TICKER: GILD STRATEGY USED: Silver Scalper Trend Confirmation = Range MA Entry Signal = Bull/Bear Power Exit Signal = Bull/Bear Power OR Range MA --- DESCRIPTION: 1. With this strategy we enter long on Bull signals and exit on Bear signals when the trend is bullish. 2. The current trend on GILD is bullish according to our Alpha RMA (Green bar color). 3. We are currently looking for a Bull signal for a long entry. 4. We expect a stop and go off of S1 to get our long entry. 5. If we get the long entry at S1 we will be looking at R1 to see how the price reacts. 6. If S1 can't hold we will watching for a Bull signal in the S2 range. --- NOTE: We conduct market analysis on a daily basis from a trend trading perspective using our own in house built tools. If you like any of the content we provide please leave a like and a follow to show your appreciation.
NASDAQ:GILD
by AlphaBotSystem
Would Gold continue the unstoppable rally since late of March?The rally of gold had obviously lead by several reasons such as the investor's fearful on the global economy recovery after the covid-19, the unlimited quantitative easing and bail out policy by the FED, the great uncertainty of geopolitical tension among the middle east and China-US, as well as the instability of the "Asia Financial Hub" - Hong Kong since 2019. Investor tends to adopt more risk aversion investment strategies and the precious metal like gold and silver, the traditional safe haven, has been getting more attention since 2019. Starting from 2020, we are delighted to receive good news by the long lasting trading deal between China and US has been settled by a Phase 1 deal in January. However, the covid-19, as known as the black sweans, had crashed the global market immediately after the deal has been signed. Upon the largest historical slumped of the world's financial market in Feb and March, followed by the quickest recovery in April in responding the largest quantitative easing and bail out policy announced by the FED, possibly to be a $6 trillion package, market make the responses disregarding the real economy impact under the global broader shutdown, which still in effective, and the difficulties of debts repayment by the enterprises. Unemployment rate had rises followed by the historical largest amount of initial unemployment claim for nearly 16 million citizen in US from past 3 weeks. In my point of view, I don't see a quick, sharp V-shape economy recovery as Janet Yellen said, instead Ben Bernanke raise up a depression view which would be possible to align with the current economic conditions, both the Former Federal Reserve Chairman. Besides the economic view, the liquidity of the financial sectors has been caught more investors attention. Although the FED had announced it's historical largest bail out package, the global shutdown has strongly impacted the countries' trading balance, local unemployment rate and bank liquidity as more enterprises has to be fall by lack of free-cash-flow in operation. Frankly, the Government could not save all of the enterprises during this period, the cases from the credit default among entities will rise significantly start from Q2 which lead to the liquidity problem among the banks and insurer, by a more tighter dividend and buyback policy issue by the EU and UK among it's financial sectors, no doubt that the impact of the covid-19 on global liquidity would last for at least one more quarter from now. Investors should not be enthusiastic on aggressive trading strategies and be caution on recent high volatility market. Hence, I believe the gold can provide a more stable and risk aversion choice to investors which we can see by the rally of gold prices since 20 March. The rise of gold price from $1450 to $1750 was stunning, the modified pitchfork was being more evidential support for the rally of gold. Furthermore, by observing the previous trading pattern on RSI, gold price faces a short rebounce when RSI reaches 80, this could provide a more uptrend opportunities as currently trading at 60. By breaking through the resist of $1700, followed by a short consolidation break on top of it, next target of gold could possibly be $1860, the 1.618 of previous decline in mid-March. Looking forward to see gold reaching the price within this month.
TVC:GOLDLong
by kingsonyuen
SPX at the crossroad- Macro overview and economic indicatorsPlease click like and follow me if you like my post. Much appreciated! SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than retest its March 23 low. However, the current resistance lvl seems to have stalled its momentum somewhat as the weekly candle indicates an indecisive market sentiment. It is worth to see if there is an accelerating net inflow into bond and equity fund and net outflow from liquid assets such as money market fund & saving deposits and total deposits at US commercial banks in the upcoming weeks. In order to sustain the rally, more investors need to to put their money back into the equity market. Some encouraging news and signs are already happening- *Stocks have vastly outperformed bonds by 11.92 percentage points during the last 20 trading days *Call options far outnumbered put options *VIX is steadily declining and briefly went below 40 few days ago. *Remdesivir- Early result of severe clinical trial is encouraging. Few caveats- Still wait for the result of full clinical trial and more data from randomized controlled trial is needed. Also, the severe trial was conducted without the placebo group, meaning researchers don't not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug. *Abbott recently announced new coronavirus antibody test that could do up to 20 million screenings in June. This antibody testing allows us to know if someone has been previously infected, if recovered from the infection provides the immunity and how long antibodies stay in the body. *Exponential growth has slowed down a little bit the past few days, but the fatality rate is still climbing. Hospitalized # seems to have flattened the past few days even though the positive testing rate has gone up to nearly 20%. Overall, the growth rate has gone down to the average of single digit 7 % compared to the double digit growth rate few weeks ago. It is safe to assume that US is potentially transitioning from the stage of slowed down exponential growth to the stage of flattened curve. On the other hands, all economic indicators and warning signs point to the rather bleak outlook- *Vast majority of stocks is still below SMA200 and SMA50 *The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds that of hitting 52-week highs *Retail sales tanked 8.7% in March, the largest decline since the government started tracking retail sales in 1992 *March CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since Jan.2015 *Industrial production dropped 5.4% in March, largest drop since 1946 *The March PMI registered 49.1 percent, an 1 percentage drop from the February. The New Orders Index suffered a drastic decline of 7.6 percentage due to the export contraction, suggesting a weakening demand from customers. *Initial claim is down from its peak while continuous claim continues to surge *unemployment rate is projected to be as high as 20% *Crude Oil declined 67.50% since the beginning of 2020 *The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012 *Building permits in the United States fell 6.8 percent, the sharpest drop since July 2015 *Housing starts in the US plunged 22.3%, the biggest decline in housing starts since 1984 *Small business rescue loan program already hit the $349 billion limit *Massive credit downgrade as corporate earning approaches and many corporate bonds fall to distress lvl *Market-cap to GDP is still in the overvalued zone In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, central bank launched its latest program that allow foreign central banks to convert their Treasury securities into dollars in order to alleviate the USD shortage problem. This was a response to the ever-increasing liquidity crunch that is rarely seen in traditionally the most liquid market in the world. In recent days, treasury yields have not fallen like they usually do in the past during the event of massive sell-offs in equities. Other worrisome signs are the elimination of reserve requirement and the inclusion of previously excluded category of less-than-investment grade corporate bond to the Fed asset purchases. The result of these drastic measures is sure to ballon the Fed balance sheet, federal deficit and debt-GDP ratio in the near future, further compounding the U.S Debt dilemma. Lastly, the potential danger of second wave infection in China cannot be overstated. The fragility of the global supply chain is already being exposed during the pandemic and the problem will be further exacerbated if the world's second largest economy fails to prevent the re-emergence of virus. Overall, I am cautiously optimistic. There are many potential events and developments to pay attention to such as the serious supply chain bottleneck and essential worker shortage that could trigger the massive sell-off. Also, I am waiting to see how the market will react to the upcoming quarterly GDP, unemployment # and corporate earning. Stay safe out there my friends! Please do your own due diligence. Not the investment advice, just my personal take on the current situation.
SP:SPX
by Libratus
2