End Cycle Market ThesisThis is my end cycle market thesis.
I know you can't predict market tops or timing.
I'm just trying to include potential reactions to FED tapering and FED rake hikes in conjunction with an end to a long bull market run, Covid crysis and CBDC announcments.
Covid-2019
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update X (Part 1)Based on the Weekly chart...
There was NO end to the wave, a slight reprieve, but it was there, clear and present.
Sine the week of 19 July, it was a crossover, one that is significant and not to ignore. On the week of 30 August, the uptick was telling that the trend is real and resuming.
Now SG would really feel it now as the rate is clearly accelerating over the last two weeks.
Projections in line with the SG MOH press statement.
We dropped the ball. Period.
Is BTC's uptrend following COVID's?First off, this is not meant as any opinion towards Covid-19 (political, medical, or otherwise) nor meant in any way to dishonor any who have lost loved ones due to Covid-19, but rather I wanted to call out an interesting correlation that looks to be occurring.
Recently TradingView made the confirmed cases in the US available broken down per state or country. However, when one maps the rate of change ( ROC ) based on the absolute value, one can see the daily increase/decrease in cases over time (similar to all the charts as shown on other sites such as Google ).
What is interesting is that when vaccines hit key events, the price of bitcoin dropped. However, now that the delta variant has begun to increase the case rates in the US, the price of bitcoin seems to be retracing upward along almost the exact same Fibonacci retracement levels (note how even the bounces seem to occur on both charts along the Fibonacci lines).
As to the cause of this, it could be for any number of reasons, for example Fibonacci levels being a measure of growth (and hence very appropriate for disease spreads), or could be correlated to the hopes for a government stimulus in the United States, or could simply be an interesting coincidence and nothing else.
It seems like something of interest to watch to see if the trend continues or breaks (e.g., could a dip in Covid-19 cases due to boosters or herd immunity leading to a dip in BTC ).
Either way, stay safe out there, both with the pandemic and with your trades. And as always, this is not meant as financial advice but is solely my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or at least find it interesting as well.
Ok. Pfizer is going NUTS! 🚀🚀🚀Nothing is more profitable than fear.
I think Pfizer profits have doubled by Q2 and it's getting even crazier, way crazier.
The whole west is throwing money at them with government and most urbanites in total fear.
They don't even care how much it costs. Destroy a country? Lose 10% of GDP? They don't care, just name your price.
Take AMZN for example. Went vertical, retested ATH, then to the moon.
In the short term (2-3 months or even less) it can be really profitable.
Who cares if Pfizer gets destroyed by crowds after we made our money?
It won't happen overnight (probably).
Here it's different from Amazon there is no reason for the company to trend for years (for now).
It's really short term with the hysterical fear pushing profits to incredible levels.
Share prices have a tendency to retrace after breaking ATH, once again, profitable in the short term.
I'm not stock trader but here it is really juicy. I'm sure there are similar examples?
Price just going vertical... 1999 bubble for sure...
I am not experienced enough but I assume it always or almost always retests ATH
I'm sure it's possible Pfizer just goes vertical, the noob bagholding investors as always will want to greedily snatch their profits the moment they see some green and cause a pullback but euphoria could absorb the selling.
Something like that....
Consolidation...
And again...
Got to check my favorite example
Moderna for 2 years has simply been in a beautiful trend, a work of art.
And it is up more than 1000% since 2020.
Some to compare moderna to:
Other cool trends
VXRT Vaxart Covid-19 VaccineOn 6/11/2021 Piper Sandler brokerage Initiated Coverage giving a price target of $18.00
VXRT Vaxart today announced that it has shown for the first time in clinical trials that its oral tablet vaccine platform successfully boosted immune responses in subjects previously vaccinated with a Vaxart oral vaccine more than a year earlier. (prnewswire.com)
This is in line with my previews chart:
BIOV -- FDA approval for COVID-19 clinical trialsBiotech sector is getting hot, especially for companies connected to COVID-19 vaccine and treatments development... BIOV chart looks rip for a breakout with MACD closing in on bullish cross and a major catalyst in the form of FDA approval of its Phase I/II study:
FDA Provides Necessary Guidance For BioVaxys To Begin Preparation Of Ind For Phase I/II Clinical Trials Of CoviDTH
VANCOUVER, British Columbia, July 22, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- BioVaxys Technology Corp. (CSE: BIOV) (FRA:5LB) (OTCQB: BVAXF) ("BioVaxys"), is pleased to announce today that the US Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") has provided its official Written Response to the Company's request for a Pre-IND Type B review of CoviDTH as a diagnostic for evaluating T-cell immune response to SARS-CoV-2.
The FDA found the Chemistry, Manufacturing and Controls, and other elements of the clinical development program proposed by BioVaxys to be acceptable and provided guidance and feedback supportive of BioVaxys' clinical development plans for CoviDTH. In addition, the FDA indicated that animal toxicity studies for CoviDTH were not required and that the Company could start its clinical development program with a combined Phase I/II study. Based on this feedback, BioVaxys will begin preparation of an IND application to support a Phase I/II safety, dosing, and efficacy study.
BioVaxys submitted a Pre-Investigational New Drug ("IND") meeting request and briefing package with the FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) for CoviDTH earlier this year. The Pre-IND review is a critical step in the US regulatory approval process, as it affords an opportunity for study sponsor companies to seek clarification from the FDA on clinical trials design, clinical materials manufacturing, quality controls, etc.
"With the guidance we received from this FDA review, BioVaxys is now able to begin preparing its IND," stated BioVaxys President and Chief Operating Officer Ken Kovan. He adds "Although the FDA has indicated that our planned animal tox study is discretionary, we will likely continue with the animal tox study of CoviDTH as it does not interfere with the development time frame and may in fact provide useful data."
James Passin, BioVaxys CEO, stated, "We are pleased to advance CoviDTH towards clinical trials, as we believe that mass screening for T cell immunity to Covid-19 will represent a critical tool for public health authorities to address the continued pandemic, as Covid variants continue to circulate and major governments in the southern hemisphere enact new lockdown policies."
The Company is not making any express or implied claims that its product has the ability to eliminate, cure, or contain Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) at this time.
NRBO 400% Upside Potential | Covid-19 TreatmentOn 4/20/2021 HC Wainwright brokerage Reiterated Rating to Buy and a Price Target of $16.00 for NRBO
But how come? What`s the catalyst? Why NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals was up 40% yesterday?
Richard J. Kang, CEO: "Throughout the first quarter of 2021, we continued to make progress advancing the 60-patient Phase 2/3 clinical trial of our lead drug candidate, ANA001, a proprietary oral niclosamide formulation, as a treatment for moderate to severe COVID-19."
"we expect to report preclinical in vitro data demonstrating Gemcabene's ability to treat COVID-19 variants alone and in combination with ANA001."
"NeuroBo has the financial foundation to fund operations at the current level into the fourth quarter of 2021 and we expect to achieve a number of value-creating milestones with our COVID-19 programs in the coming months."
Besides the Covid-19 treatment, NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals has a current portfolio of four drug candidates focused on developing and commercializing multi-modal disease-modifying therapies for viral, neuropathic, and neurodegenerative diseases.
The Market Cap if only 88.473Mil at the time or writing!
Carnival Corporation and plc (CCL) for long termSignals
Position: long Entry price: 18.5
Target price: 28 Stop loss: 19
Indicators
RSI is very low under 25, better to wait till the price reaches the support line around 18.
Bullinger Bands and William Alligator are really opened, indicating a strong trend. So the price will probably reach the support.
ADX is really strong, indicating a strong momentum. It means that the price will lower again. Same clues from the MACD .
Conclusions
Carnival is expecting to have 42 ships back to service by the end of November, embracing a phase of operations restart. After the drop caused by the Covid-19, the company is sailing again in several destinations including the Caribbean, the Mediterranean and Northern Europe.
As the vaccine campaign goes on, older people ( the major costumers of the cruise industry) will be fully protected and will buy tickets.
In the long term the price can reach $40 but if you want to be more conservative set the target price around 28/30.
GBPUSD confirms bearish flag on UK “Freedom Day”Looming concerns over the Delta covid variant probes the UK’s total unlock on July 19 as the infections jump to the highest since January. The same drag the GBPUSD prices to break the monthly rising channel, confirming the bearish flag chart pattern in turn. Given the MACD conditions also supporting the sellers and the RSI line having a bit gap from the oversold area, the quote is likely to extend the south-run towards the 1.3700 threshold and then to April’s low near 1.3670. However, any further downside will not hesitate to refresh the yearly low, currently around 1.3450.
Meanwhile, corrective pullback beyond the channel’s support line, now resistance around 1.3780 will aim for the 1.3800 round figure. Though, a downward sloping trend line from June 23, near 1.3875, will be a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls afterward. Even if the cable buyers manage to cross the 1.3875 hurdle, the stated channel’s resistance line and 200-SMA, respectively around 1.3925 and 1.3945 will challenge the pair’s further upside.
Biotech - CSLModel has given entry signals for CSL Limited:
- CSL Limited is a global specialty biotechnology company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets products to treat and prevent serious human medical conditions.
- We are very excited about opportunities in the biotech sector, as we believe the fight against COVID is going to move to the next phase in the nearest future.
- Technically in a Wyckoff accumulation structure with a spring, possibly testing the channel top.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
ASX:CATHere we have the lifetime chart for ASX:CAT.
- Starting with a price of $0.63 and reaching an ATH of $4.26 in only 1 year.
- It then went on a 3 year downtrend back to its original $0.63.
- After that we see it recover to $2.13 in 1 year.
- COVID-19 pandemic brings price all the way down to $0.49, which is its new ATL.
- Since then price has recovered nicely, and if it continues to do so I will be looking to enter a trade.
I have marked what I would like to happen for me to enter, and the relevant buy zone. I will only be putting a small sum on this trade in the hopes that price breaks the $2.47 resistance line and holds price. Only then will I be looking at this trade more seriously. I can then average down my purchase price with small sum previously purchased.
DYOR
I hope this helps someone
UK COVID-19 Next Wave Projection Update IIFrom the previous post on 14 May, I was doing a friend a favour into looking at the UK projection as she is living in London.
I said "... and projection made that the start of a spike is at the end of June, into July .
IF this projection is on point, then outnbreak news should be seen in the latter part of July ."
It is the beginning of July, and it appears that the AMCD histograms trended up as expected, and is about to break out into a major spike given the weekly chart is about to crossover into the bullish territory.
The daily chart is clearly showing the spike in force... go see it.
So there you have it, yet again, this MACD model is projecting very well the onset of spikes. IF the powers that be, could appreciate this heuristical statistics, we might be able to intervene appropriately.
In any case... the weekly MACD is about to cross up, which is seriously bad news!
INDONESIA COVID-19 - the next wave part IVPreviously projected to explode in mid-June, with clear media coverage about the next wave.
Today, the last day of June, in the media - I ndonesia's COVID-19 situation nears 'catastrophe', says Red Cross
The model here is good at projecting with at least a 4 weeks lead time for potential waves. This was previously demonstrated for a couple of countries and all have not yet disappointed. Often, the onset is actually faster than projected... mostly attributed to the increasing virulence of the virus.
Difficult to disagree with Red Cross... it IS heading that way.
Prayers and well wishes to those in Indonesia, especially my friends living there. Stay safe and well. Take good care.
KNR -- Oversold; Double Bottom at .89. On watch for a bounce.KNR has been beaten down but looks way overdone, given they have just raised $8.5 at 1.50 with institutional investors. The company reported respectable $3.3M revenues in Q1 2021. Their BioCloud COVID-19 detection device will be used by the Canadian Olympic delegation at the Tokyo Olympics. The US sales channel is being worked on. Insiders are buying in the open market. Share buyback program is in effect. Bullish MACD divergence on the chart.
INDONESIA COVID-19 - the next wave part IIIJust barely a week after the last update, the rate of spread (and detection) has hit 20,000 per day !
And according to the Weekly chart (not shown here), the MACD Histograms cross over this week! This means that there is a lot more momentum for this wave to grow. Much more so given the lack of effective measures implemented and enforced. A overwhelming shutdown of the health system is pretty much round the corner, without infection rates slowing, but accelerating on the contrary.
Eventually, it will affect the region, as the viral reservoir gets dug in deep, and may even see the spawn of more variants.
It is expected that the rate will only increase, until very strong measures are taken to impede the spread. Until then, it would still take weeks after implementation to subside significantly.
Hong Kong has already banned flights, and more will probably follow, leading to some level of external isolation.
Not good at all...
Take care, take very good care if you are in the affected areas.
God speed, and God bless.
Indonesia COVID-19 - the next wavePresuming that the testing is done properly, the daily chart is indicating that the next COVID wave is upon Indonesia in its initial stages already.
Mid-June 2021 should see the wave hit the shores hard, and media coverage appear then...
Stay safe and be well my Indonesian friends!
GBPUSD: Teases monthly support line amid Brexit, covid doldrumsGBPUSD pays a little heed to the price-negative catalysts during early Monday. In doing so, the cable ignores confirmation of a four-week delay in the UK’s unlock as well as an anticipated bumpy road for the next round of Brexit talks as EU policymakers pushed Britain to respect previously agreed deal over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. The corrective pullback seems technical as a monthly ascending support line tests the pair sellers around 1.4085. Even if the sterling bears dominate past-1.4085, 1.4010-4000 area comprising 50-day SMA, May 13 low and April’s top will be the key to watch.
Meanwhile, further upside could aim for 1.4180 immediate hurdle ahead of challenging the 1.4200 crucial resistance. It’s worth noting that a daily closing beyond 1.4200 needs a daily close beyond the latest top surrounding 1.4265 to aim for the 1.4300 and the 1.4370 numbers to the north. Overall, GBP/USD remains firm but a pullback can’t be ruled out.
Medical investing opportunity CTIAs one of my hobbies is thinking about different spheres of possible crypto-influence, i am always looking into something new. For example, medicine in which data science has taken it's toll. One of project like this, which I found on twitter, was ClinTex. One of strategies for investing is to diverse your funds and think about net-profit which it wil give you in a year or two. These guys are a good possible investment from the getgo. I layed for you some foundation which you could use in your short-time trending with some interesting analysis of future growth and points of entry into this sphere. Enjoy!
SINGAPORE COVID-19 WAve 3 Projection Update VIAs projected, and not optimistic and overconfident about the downward momentum, the MACD Histograms are again increasing, and about to break above zero. This leads into the insight and foresight that the week to come should see more detected cases, and also more clusters probably.
We need to understand that virus infections work in waves, and this method allows a reliable tracking based on data analytics, simply on the MACD histograms.
PS. apologies for the mislabeling of colours of the arrows in the last update. Rectified.
CHINA COVID-19 Projection Update IIAgain, reference idea posted on 19 May, China is a "small" wave two weeks later; Guangdong province.
News articles:
Today 4 June - S'pore to bar short-term visitors with travel history to China's Guangdong province as Covid-19 cases surge
2 June - China’s Guangdong tightens coronavirus measures as cases persist
21 May - China rolls out one-dose vaccine amid new round of Covid-19 infections
No Guangdong at this time... only Yunnan, Anhui and Liaoning
Again, the MACD Histograms are pre-empting the waves, at least 2 weeks in advance. This time applicable to China's data.
2021-05-29 DJIA Birdseye view 1929 till 2021Sometimes one needs to take a step back to see the bigger picture on what is going, to learn from the past and start making plans of actions on what to do next ✌
1929 Crash (Wikipedia article)
en.wikipedia.org
1987 Black Monday Crash (Wikipedia article)
en.wikipedia.org(1987)
1999-2000 Dot-Com Bubble (Wikipedia article)
en.wikipedia.org
2007-2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis (Wikipedia article)
en.wikipedia.org