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Covid-2019

Is Gold Losing It's Relevance?Looking at some of the historic phases we were in (Dot.com Bubble, Real-Estate Bubble) and the current Zero-Interest Bubble, the M1 money stock and the development of the S&P500 the question arises if gold is losing it's relevance as safe haven. Given the explosion of central bank money and the clear trend to govern by central bank monetary policy one would expect gold should already show clear signs of strength and grow in value. After the Dot.com bubble burst gold was in demand. After the real estate bubble burst gold was in demand. Then something happened. 9/11 and the "War on Terror" and continued M1 money stock or cheap central bank money flooding. Gold lost value continuously. Up until SARS-CoV2 and the Great Reset strategies being executed. With the sudden drop in oil prices in Feb. 2020 and Covid-19 being used to create quite a fear monster gold was in high demand. But gold was put in check (for now) again by the central banks. This time with crazy rocket parabolic money supply explosion. Now the question will be will central banks be able to contain the monsters they summoned by their strategies and keep the world economy afloat even when in the next couple of month the economic bad news will become visible and will have to be managed? Will the shy money seek yet another time gold as a safe haven? Any of the yellow continuation arrow trends for gold seem possible. Note it does appear historically more likely that gold will rise to new heights. Gold remains a valid portion of any portfolio. At what percentage and what shape (physical or digital ) is up to each of us to decide for ourselves.
TVC:GOLDLong
by CarpeMomentum
6
Check out the Fibonacci LevelsIf you put a close Stop loss , you will have a good risk-win if you start a short. I personally was looking for the magical number 30k which it already achieved (well, it was 29996). Reasons to short: 1. On all the fib levels the DJI had a resistance until it broke through. it will climb down the fib circle just like on the other fib levels before. 2. I am still amazed how printing this unbelievable amount of money can push the markets like that. (The US printed 9 billion Dollars! That might be the reason why Europe also had to print 8.6 billion Dollar worth Euro, just so the US would not just print and simply buy up Europe, like they do anyway...). But: highest numbers with covid19 does not seem to interest the markets. Weird! People lose their jobs , so less consume. The bureaus of big companies are emtpy and they pay twice for home office and bureau, plus it becomes more difficult to make things happen if you can´t meet personally, etc etc etc I am sure, you will find a lot of stuff why of almost ALL companies eventually the red numbers will rise. Lufthansa, Boing etc etc can only survice because they get hundreds of billions from the government! The only question is: when will this system implode? How can every body be so optimistic, what do I miss out on? If YOU lighten me, write me in the comments. thank you!
UShort
by ttk100
1
COVID19 the Jerk got worse in a SnapPart 1: FULL INTRO The goal remains the application of 'derivatives of displacement' to describe the spread of COVID-19. The points made will apply to any application over time (not just virus spread). This charts focus is on COVID19's "snap". Snap is the 4th derivative of displacement: Rate of spread (how many each day) Velocity of spread: Change in Rate over time Acceleration of spread: Change in Rate over time Jerk of spread: Change in Rate over time Snap: Change in Jerk over time Snap is explosive change best described as "Oh Sh-t!" Examples of snap include : Waterfall. Take off. Flooring it. Rocket launch. Peak violent vomiting Roller coaster with 360 loop. COVID19 spread as of Nov, 2020. (Black histogram in upper right chart) Why should I care? Acceleration, Jerk and Snap can be evaluated together when expressed in standard deviations. 95% of measurements fall between -2 STD and +2 STD away from their mean mean (assuming a normal distribution). The lower right chart presents the derivatives in terms of STD's. At the time of writing they are all above the midline (i.e. all positive). In terms of "stopping the spread" of the virus consider the difficulty in stopping any of the 'snap examples' above. A job for superman? Superman was said to be "faster than a speeding bullet". However, after leaving the barrel, a bullets velocity and acceleration are negative. Bullets slow down, while virus spread speeds up. The bullets deceleration lacks jerk or snap unless it hits a wall. Yet, on one point the bullet metaphor *is* useful: Giving a bullet or a virus a 'head start' has an exponential impact . For a virus the head start may be time for asymptomatic spread. For a bullet its a longer barrel and more time to build velocity.(see note below). Time Matters and the time is now American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacement ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ [Note on projectile velocities : A bullet, while moving through its barrel, is being pushed forward by the gas expanding behind it. This gas was created when the trigger was pulled, causing the firing pin to strike the primer, which in turn ignited the solid propellant packed inside the bullet cartridge, making it combust while situated in the chamber. Once it leaves the barrel, the force of the expanding gas ceases to propel the bullet forth. When a bullet is fired from a handgun with a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel, the bullet only has a 2-inch (51 mm) "runway" to be spun before it leaves the barrel. Likewise, it has only a 2-inch (51 mm) space in which to accelerate before it must fly without any additional force behind it. In some instances, the powder may not have even been fully burned in guns with short barrels. So, the muzzle velocity of a 2-inch (51 mm) barrel is less than that of a 4-inch (100 mm) barrel, which is less than that of a 6-inch (150 mm) barrel.
CShort
by gb50k
2
American Jerk behind COVID surge : Derivatives of displacementCleaner Chart: The recent increase in acceleration (known as "jerk") of US COVID cases is "re-bending the curve". In this context the verbal descriptions of change, and its derivatives ,becomes both interesting and important Charts showing ongoing change in confirmed US COVID19 cases are themselves constantly changing. Understanding these 'charts of change' is a prerequisite for making informed public policy decisions, as well as individual decision making (to mask or not to mask?). Yet verbal explanations of change are outpacing graphical representations in mainstream media. This is the position taken in the NYT article "Bending the curve". To quote the author: As an old Chinese philosopher never said, “Words about graphs are worth a thousand pictures.” The public at large understands the concept of displacement: change over time. For example, is the number of new cases per day going up or down? However, the derivatives of displacement are not commonly understood. You may get a blank stare in response to questions like: 1) The US flattened the curve in the spring of 2020. Did that mean fewer new cases per day? 2) "A jerk is responsible for recent spikes in new cases" Is that: a) a description of change? b) a political statement? Methodology: The chart is a brief overview of the first 4 derivatives of displacement [Left panel and there application to recent (10/25/2020) data on he number of confirmedrUS COVID19 cases. Raw data was TV's ticker "COVID19:CONFIRMED_US" Each derivative was calculated on a 7-day SMA of the previous step. Both 5MA and 7MA are commonly used in summary graphs published by John Hopkins (2). Deritives are shown for Acceleration and Jerk. A BB% score shows that both Acceleration and Jerk are 2STD above their mean. It is statistically likely that ,as the Jerk becomes more prominent we may experience an upward "Snap" in US COVID cases. While its easy to visualize an acceleration or even a jerk in virus spread (both have exponential growth), it is much harder, and is left as an exercise for the reader, to visualize "snap" spread of a disease. Another conclusion is that any attempt to "re-flatten the curve" will fail in the presence of persistent jerk. (1) www.nytimes.com (2) coronavirus.jhu.edu
CShort
by gb50k
41
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment. There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point. Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
GPW:FW20Z2020Short
by CashJohny
HUGE -- Oversold COVID-19 play; insiders buying at premiumI am in at $2.35. - Oversold, RSI @ 21 - $9.5 USD financing just closed at $3.10 CDN with insiders/institutions buying ahead of COVID-19 treatment Phase 2 trial results - Will need to maintain $4+ stock price to stay listed on NASDAQ - Gaps above at 3.33 & 5.56 - Signs of bottoming out - $25M in cash; with Cannabis asset sale (~$20M), the cash position will exceed market cap - Due for COVID-19 treatment Phase 2 trial results within a week or two
HLong
by wealth_bakery
2
DXY Forecast (Pivotal info please read I apologize for volume)Here is my fundamental, technical, and news analysis of DXY . There are so many question remarks regarding the future of the US dollar forecasting a holding downtrend. I believe we will see the dollar drop to the September 1st low of 91.750. News Analysis Reports of the likely hood of the stimulus passing before the elections are slim. As a result volatility will increase with low sentiment pertaining to future strength. Reports of the US treasury report release announced further delay of the release. Delays have occurred due to COVID-19 and the elections. This is the likely cover for the under lying issue of the US heavy watch list of suspected countries engaging in currency manipulation. (Un-contracting trading of bilateral goods, unauthorized foreign aid, and unmatched account balance). US treasury report is set to release further information on investigation findings which if negative would effect the economy and sentiment immensely. Among these countries include Switzerland ( put back on the list) so that should be an interesting pair to watch. USD Index reported dropping .22% and expected to maintain that low the upcoming week. Stocks will be avoided adding more volatility to the dollar. Fundamental Reporters state “Banks imply bullish calendar week ahead” to avoid the first double dip recession in 40 years .Experienced traders know banks often play trickery. Banks focus on one thing and one thing only. Make more money. Unfortunately banks need to be funded as the main priority. We all know what happens when banks fall. This “implication” is simply to psychologically reassure traders to keep trading, falling into the fakeouts skewed by the money holders. Of course banks are going to reassure the general population a double dip won’t reoccur. Thus I will disregard this information until I see it play out. The Chinese Yuan has been dominating the Dollar for quite a while. As long as the Yuan heavily ways down on the Dollar, the Dollar will be negatively effected. Given China’s continued economic growth following hits from the pandemic, and the Dollars uncertainty we will continue to see the Yan dominate the Dollar. This in turn yields low sentiment. And of course the hot topic of the upcoming week for the US are the elections. If Biden’s chances grow stronger towards the end of the week we may see some positive growth as the Democrats will essentially demand a stimulus agreement. Who really knows where the US stands financially apart from the front office. One can only make speculations on the opposition. If the week begins and ends with candidate uncertainty we may see added volatility . Technical My 1hr technical chart view indicates the the dollar will drop to 91.750. We are currently seeing a push to form the lower low which will give me added confirmation of a true downtrend. The price must close below the horizontal trend I presented to fit my forecast criteria. I believe the the trend will move in a downward holding (short volatile candles) I hope everyone took the time to read this over! Below are my sources. Sources Reuters Investing.com Daily FX Netdania
TVC:DXY
by Pika7993
4
XAUUSD | Gold in 5 yearsHello my friend | Welcome Back. Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. *** Gold in 2016 there was a noticeable rise but at the end of the year it decreased due to political tensions. By the end of 2017, gold had climbed back to around $1,300 per ounce. Spurring the last push of the year was the success of the euro in reaching the $1.20 mark, a level that the European currency has flirted with throughout much of the year. When looking at the performance of major markets such as US equities and oil, 2018 has so far provided much for bulls to cheer. But one market that has clearly underperformed year-to-date is gold. By August, gold prices had dropped to a 20-month low before they staged a slight recovery towards the end of the month. Having lost around 8 percent in 2018, and around 14 percent on an annualized basis, gold also fell below the $1,200-per-ounce mark for the first time since 2017’s first quarter. Following some weakness earlier in the year, precious metals prices picked up recently on rising expectations of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and an escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China. The World Bank’s Precious Metals Price Index is projected to be 2.6 percent higher in 2019, led by gold, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Gold is again riding high on the world's commodity markets, topping $2,000 per troy ounce for the first time on Tuesday and entering its third week of trading at above the benchmark level of $1,900 – its longest run at this point since 2011. Overall, gold has risen in value by a fifth so far this year. The impact of COVID-19 on the world's markets has weakened the value of the dollar. This, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and parts of Asia, helps explain its current winning streak, according to analysts. 
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Saeed966
2
Gold hovers around 1900, WHO concerns reg rising COVID casesGold price continue to trade in a narrow range hovering near the $1900 levels amidst a steady dollar, fading chances of a new U.S. fiscal stimulus package being finalized before the November elections. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi were "far apart" on another coronavirus economic relief package, that would be hard to reach before Nov 3 election, which is not a good news for gold prices. IMF’s latest global growth forecast which sowed a contraction of -4.4% v/s - 5.2% in June also put pressure on gold prices. On other hand, WHO has shown concerns regarding the rising Covid cases, in fact Europe have even decided to take certain measures to contain the spread of the virus, hence providing some support for the metal. Market participants will be keeping an eye on the weekly jobless claims data expected from the US which if reported better expectation could support the metal at lower levels. Technically, Gold hovering around 1900 area with h4 ma50 at 1902 as a pivot and day ma50 at 1929 as resistance with support at 1882 yesterday low. Sustaining in asian session above 1902 could test again yesterday high 1912.94 a break can test the day ma50 at 1929 with a hurdle at 1920 meanwhile. Overall untill it stays above 1880 is a buy on dips strategy. For the day we advise buy on dips is advised. Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 190001 SL BELW 1885 TGT 1916 AND 1920 ELSE SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1865 SL ABV 1903
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
WTI edged lower on hopes faded on stimulus, eyes on EIA dataCrude oil prices nudged lower as hopes faded for another round of U.S. fiscal stimulus before Nov election along with a strong dollar which kept pressure on price. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected proposal from Senate Republican leaders for a smaller scale approach to new stimulus and demanded a revamped offer from the White House. Prices however got some boost after Chinese customs data showed crude imports in Sept were up over 2% MoM to about 11.8 Mbpd in Sept, signaling improving demand in Asia’s biggest economy. IEA reported in its World Energy Outlook that in its central scenario vaccines could mean global economy rebounds in 2021 and energy demand recovers by 2023. But under a delayed recovery scenario, it said energy demand recovery is pushed back to 2025, while OPEC also forecast slower demand recovery in their monthly report. OPEC+ are due to hold a monitoring meeting on Monday with UAE ministers giving bearish signals at Intelligence Forum, reporting that OPEC+ is planning to ease output cuts by 2Mbpd in Jan which can further increase the glut at a time demand recovery is stalling. Markets await weekly U.S. oil inventory data due tomorrow. Suggestion: BUY WTI OIL FROM 40 SL BELOW 39.45 TGT 40.60/41.15 ELSE SELL BELOW 39.40 SL ABV 40.70 TGT 38.80
TVC:USOILLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
Gold around 1900 on firm dollar and lack of clarity on stimulus!"Confusion", "anxiety", "excitement", are just a few words depicting the market emotions and movement of yesterday. There has been a series of updates which are contributing to the market volatility. Gold is hovering around the $1900 level amidst, a firm dollar and lack of agreement on the new Covid relief bill. Also IMF released their global growth forecast report, which showed a contraction of -4.4% v/s -5.2% in June, denting the appeal for safe haven. On other hand, expectation for a Covid19 vaccine took a backseat after Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly and Co. paused vaccine trials, limiting some losses for gold. Global finance leaders said the world economy had escaped a coronavirus-triggered collapse so far, but warned that failure to conquer the pandemic, maintain stimulus and tackle mounting debt among poor nations could crush fragile recovery. Market participants will continue to focus on these important updates, and it is advised that a cautious approach is maintained. A $1,916 retest on the H4 today could be enough to spark buying, considering we’re coming from weekly support at $1,882. The H4 resistance at $1,941 serves as a logical upside target for longs, and somewhere fresh sellers may make a show, having noted the H4 and daily confluence. Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1904-05 SL BELOW 1880 TGT 1925 ELSE SELL BELOW 1875 TGT 1850 SL ABV 1885
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
1
S&P 500 EEUU 500Hello good morning I hope you’re right. A few days ago I published this idea to you, to this day it is the same I have only modified trend and lines by market movement. In the comments, in the 2 comments that our brokers commented that it would follow the second trend, The fall BEARISH . We believe that in the short term you will see high volatility whit corrections... but in the middle term we’re BULLISH and in the long run we’ lo see. LEAVE YOUR OPINION In the comments 1 or 2, and how they are positioned in short, medium up to elections, and long. Sincerely L.E.D In Spain at 13/10/2020
UShort
by wallstreetstocks