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Covid-2019

Gold glittering on positive stimulus hopes...new month new levelGold prices Gold declined after a back-to-back advance as the first American presidential debate disappointed the market by giving no clarity regarding their policies and stances. If USD is to weaken as the stimulus package accord seems far away, gold could make its way back. Technically holding above 1880 and close abv 1889 could rise again to test immediate resistance at 1900 and 1905. Buying on dips is suggested.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
2
Trump-Biden event fails to impress Dollar bullUS dollar index sinking for a second consecutive session Tuesday, Gold extended gains. From the weekly timeframe, bullion is attempting to regain some status above support at $1,882, after missing channel resistance-turned support, etched from the high $1,703, by a hair. On the daily timeframe, room is seen for buyers until shaking hands with resistance at $1,911.With price approaching resistance on the H4 timeframe: the double-bottom take-profit target at $1,903, traders are likely to seek intraday bearish themes, despite the yellow metal trading decisively higher since 2016.The combination of $1,903, H4 resistance at $1,916 and daily resistance from $1,911 might be sufficient to tempt sellers into the market today. Breaking $1,916, on the other hand, may ignite further buying (in line with the current uptrend) and force H4 resistance at $1,941 and daily channel resistance, taken from the high $2,075, into play.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
Covid US Deaths Technical Analysisidentifying patterns. can see how the mac D on total us deaths is starting to turn bearish, i can see a slowdown happen around election day @ 225000 deaths could peak a few months past into new years @ 285000 deaths before really starting to flatline the squeeze indicator is also showing slowdown in confirmed deaths. we are hitting the top of the ascending wedge, (bearish) the MACD and RSI are both turning bearish as well election and newyears big things are to come. the virus is slowing down as the data shows. I dont care what the news say theres tons of other charts, like confirmed cases and such, but I just like confirmed deaths since the case numbers are not as accurate.
D
by ToddGreen
JSE T0P40I initially predicted a 17% decline on JSE TOP40, the move is well in motion. See link below South Africa has had one of the worse lockdowns in response to covid19 and it resulted in a reported decline of 51% in GDP. The unemployment numbers and number of business bankrupted are not yet publicly available. South Africa also increased its USD debt during this crisis and in a lot of ways money meant for economic recovery was lost to corruption. During this period there's also been increases in social grants and introduction of new ones despite the decrease in production. When more of the data becomes available i think the stock market will keep falling further, though i doubt new lows could be made, but i am very convinced the we could see prices falling to a range of about 34,000 - 35,000. Share your thoughts in the comments below Like and follow for more content Link in related charts Good Luck!!!
JSE:J200Short
by TradingWithTheTrend
3
Analysis of Inflation/deflation and covid-situationInflation: Persistent growth of the price level of a basket of selected goods. Deflation: Fall in overall prices in an economy. Increase in purchasing power of the currency. From deflation to hyperinflation, the historical route: 1. Central authority inflates paper assets, i.e. bonds, stocks and derivatives. Effect is capital inflow from real economy into paper assets. This leads to a deflation in real assets. This deflation is a result of a fall in demand in the real economy (money rather being displaced to paper assets). 2. Commodity prices lower than production costs. An effect of less money being spent in real economy. Commodity prices fall to attract/please customers demand-level. Counteracted with more monetary easing. _Security purchasing_. 3. Commodity producers either go out of business or cut production. 4. Point three leads to commodity shortages (creating excess demand), which in turn leads to spike in price. 5. This leads to a commodity-led inflation of prices. Capital flow from paper assets to real assets. Capital which has been bound up in the stock market will now flow into real assets. Exacerbating inflation in congruence with the degree of monetary easing done during deflationary period. 6. Loss of confidence in currency. This leads to a flux to hard assets!!! 7. Hyperinflation ensues. Theoretical basis for inflation/deflation (quantitative monetary theory): -The quantity theory of money states MV = PY (money times velocity = price times output). -This is the theoretical basis of the proportional increase/decrease in monetary stock/velocity. If perfectly inverse proportional, price times output stays constant. By this identity (formula) we can of course also see how inflation happens: If money increases while velocity and output stays constant, price will increase (inflation). Where are we at? -Degree of deflation can be represented by velocity of money. This metric has been falling sharply recently, and has been falling since -08 atleast. Central authority counterbalances this with inflationary measures like monetary easing. We can see by M2 Money stock and M2 Money velocity that both of these charts has gone full vertical just recently (january -19). -We would expect commodity prices to fall as well as security prices to raise. A study by Peter Oppenheimer (october -19), chief equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, shows that commodity are prices down 50 % since -08. While asset prices are up 300 % during the same period. Covid-19 lockdowns will effectively arrest the situation and temporarily kick the can down the road. How? -Less people frequent stores and places of physical trade: This leads to lower velocity of money. -By creating a supply shock/shutting down the economy: A supply shock happens when there is a lower output (Y decreases/GDP decreases). This leads to higher prices (see equation above). --> Effectively M (UP) x V (DOWN) = P (UP) x Y (DOWN). --> Lifting shutdowns will have an adverse effect on the deflation/inflation problem. _Dynamic inflation goal_… need I say the rest.
FRED:M2V
by wgpeders
1
$VBIV 10 Day MA Reversal and Curl on the Daily10 day MA reversal and curl. Today's candle is just now passing though the 10 day MA but still presents an opportunity for the bears so if the bulls keep the price up we may be able to break this and that should give confirmation of a bullish reversal. Inverted hammer appearing after the series of red candles is indicative that a reversal is about to occur. However, since the next candle did not open above the previous day's close, this indicates the bears may still take control. Further confirmation would be needed to take the trade long.Depending on risk tolerance 2.84-3.02 stop/loss 4.56 target, if it blows past that... woo hoo!
V
by VelvetBarbie
1
SPX - The second wave has started As we can see on the chart we have broken through the upward channel and we are ready for a correction. The correction on theory should have the TP1 target, but I think there is something else that could be going on. I have the following fundamental reasons for thinking that we will see much deeper drop: - The elections are comming in America and this creates a lot of uncertainty, because of the different policies that could get implemented if whoever gets elected. This makes investors worried and they could pull their invesments out till all of this has cleared. - The second wave of the virus has officialy started already in some countries like South Korea and also in Europe we see huge increase in new confirmed cases. There are many theories about a second wave in September which would be even stronger and this could scare investors aswell and pontetially close lead to closing down businesses which would triger even lower bottom. - The stimulus packages are not going to last forever! They actually helped people through unemployment and also gave a little economy boost, but once it is over, people won't spend money and the economy will slow down again. - There are many tenants who can't pay their rent and the landlords won't be able to recieve that rent, which they need to most likely pay for their mortgage, so this will lead to a chain reaction which will again slow down the economy and most likely cause housing crash. - There are many people who can't repay their loans, because they don't have a job or stable income, so there would be a higher default rate on loans. - The small businesses were damaged heavily by the virus and many of them won't recover, so this will hurt the economy and the people. - The gains we saw in the market are unrealistic and right now everyone is just buying in without good fundamentals, so this is bound to fall sharp at one point or another, because the banks have to take out their profits. When this happens and it is most likely happening right now, the market will fall and wipe out as aways the retail investor. My advice is don't short the economy just yet, rather be well diversified and reduce the risk! Make sure you have some money on the sidelines and be ready to buy into the market if we fall. Aways invest for the long-term and just be ready to buy more. Leave your comments bellow, if you like the idea give it a like!
SP:SPXShort
by donaitelo
4
Options Idea: Sell The JD Oct 16 2020 62.5 Put @ $1.03JD has been in an ascending parallel channel since the COVID-19 peak in March and shows no sign of slowing down. I sold an October 16 2020 62.5 Put @ 1.03 near the bottom of the channel today with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next couple months. This is one of China's biggest e-retailers and its been having a great time with extra sales due to the pandemic. Don't see any reason why that should stop anytime soon. An alternative idea for a more aggressive trade would be to sell the $70 Put for a much larger credit. The $70 Put will be just below the bottom of the channel on the Oct 16 expiration. 20-JD-01 Opening Date: August 20, 2020 Expiration Date: October 16, 2020 DTE: 57 IV: 44% IV Percentile: 36% Odds of Winning: 80% Win: > 61.47 @ Expiration Loss: < 61.47 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin @ Open: $720 Chart Legend The green area represents 100% win zone. The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. The red area is loss. 1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by OptionsCoach
2
Bearish Divergence on monthly chart for the S&P 500 Any thoughts on the monthly bearish divergence on the S&P 500? It even goes all the way back to 2018. It looks obvious to me, but I'm open to discussion. If there's a big sell-off here I would of course expect the Fed and Gov to step in again and start spending money. This also coincides with the fact that the sugar from the last round of Fed and Gov stimulus is wearing off. Things could get ugly here, the whole market has been expecting a correction for quite some time now too. That is unless the Gov comes together and puts out a package before the sell-off.
TVC:SPXShort
by quentinmaksimovich
SPX Macro Outlook: Spring 2023 @ 1782 On the low time-frame the SPX has a blatantly obvious broadening wedge. This tends to be a bearish pattern, as volatility is increasing to the downside more so than the upside. From a fundamental analysis perspective, the economy is valued at the highest it has ever been, but the economy is the worst it has been in almost a century. Something has to give... On the high time-frame notice the trend line support extending more than 50 years to 1975! Assuming out broadening wedge plays out, and we retrace to a major support level, the pertinent question is where and when? I find it likely that the trend line support of our broadening wedge and the trend line support of the last 50 years converge at a critical point: Spring 2023 @ 1782 Analyzing the past two recessions yields interesting information. The 2000 Dot Com Bubble retraced 5.5 years of growth. The 2008 Housing Bubble retraced over 12 years of growth. Assuming the 2020 Everything Bubble retraces to that key support of 1780 and converges with two trend line supports, we will have wiped out over 7 years of growth. Attached below is a chart made in 1875 identifying the length and magnitude of market cycles. As with any model, there is a degree of error. Nonetheless, it came pretty damn close to predicting the 1913 crash, Roaring 20's, Great Depression, WWII, 1970s stagnation, 1897 crash, housing crash, booming 2010s, and now 2020. Chart: drive.google.com Now, this model predicts this depression level correction to end in, you guessed it, 2023... Wow, that lines up with this analysis of Spring 2023 being the bottom @ 1782. How odd...
TVC:SPXShort
by Riester