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Covid19usa

COVID-19 DEATHS US. P-Modeling Pt B. The Great Vaccine Debate Welcome Hyperspace Travers, Current Total Stands at 789,870 Please Play Pt A, first. \ \ If H:1 holds true upon good data input: of TOTAL US COVID DEATHS. H1 is proposition of development of argument towards slope velocity and of model projection of such. _________________________________________________ Slope can A. stay on the current path at 75 degree slope. By the end of January almost 1 million will have died. Slope can B. stay elevated at 65 degrees. Slope C. stays on cycled compression at a modest 35 degrees. Severity of slope is directly correlated with velocity of infection per X density of population. __________________________________________________________________________ Arguments against H:1 are as follows: Z. Argument given. You can manipulate death totals at various levels of the collection process ie.state, county, etc.. Thus, your data is manipulated, leading to incorrect analysis. - Sure, but variance between cycles of infection per X density of population shows velocity (V) depicted by slope against a compressed plane. See that gray line stemming from the start of the data. That is an approximation of the mean in linear terms, showing a variety of compression/expansion cycles in the data provided. The variance velocity is naturally immune to manipulation of an input/output average consensus of a metric death. When X density of infections follows rolling cycles, the problem becomes if the velocity of the variance increases quickly in any one segment of time (Y). The initial peak of infection can be said to be 90 degrees from baseline 0 to the first junction of amplification. If X density of population affected by Z virus has steep velocity variance in any one segment of time Y, then we see a social consequence from it. ie.overwhelmed hospitals, shortages of supplies *in a worldwide supply chain crisis cough*, staff shortages, medical burnout, etc. You get the idea. This leads to increased reporting of death totals due to covid-19. Regardless, we simply care about social consequence. Meaning people you love start getting sick, it usually doesn't mean as much until it hits home. Then it strikes a nerve of importance. If we can come to a consensus of populations of America, its roughly 330 million. If we roughly estimate that 200 million are vaccinated with first, second or third boosted levels of the vaccines out currently. Let's say hypothetically that 20% of that 200 million have breakthrough potential. + 40 million. We now have 130 million of 330 total population that are unvaccinated. So, put them in a pool for risk of infection and dying. Plus, we have 20% (compounding variables of what ifs') of 200 million with a breakthrough potential for infection despite still being vaccinated. Furthermore, even if we said oh 10% of the covid-19 death is bullshit inflated manipulated politics. That actually strengthens the argument of immediate concern to increased variance velocity in total deaths because you have further increased the potential pool those who can be infected, but in a shorter time-span. The 20% who are vaccinated but still could be classified as vaccine covid-19 'breakthrough" includes everyone with a severe disease, elderly folk, and the young children whose immune systems are not strong enough yet to adapt to changing spike protein based viruses. That's now 160 (+/- 10 m) million in the probability pool who have a potential of dying due to strain of a nasty virus. Out of that 160 million, a variance velocity increase at the levels stated above can easily take out another couple hundred thousand people in a short Y timeframe. EASILY. I probably made some mistake in my calculations, but I think you get the picture.. maybe? There is logic to this madness. Unless shit is shut down immediately. We once again risk increased variance velocity due to a wide range of ignorance that I can not even begin to address here. But who knows if we learned. This is just really going to suck either way. Probably not. But probably.. Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me, Glitch420. _______________________________________________________________
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by Glitch420
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COVID IN THE USA: REALITY IS A HARSH PLACETradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below). Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart. Say what you see! I'll say what I see. If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point. Watch the red arrows. 1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau. 2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau. Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war. A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else? All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus. Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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by Captain_Walker
4
USA COVID: Watch out!Was just speaking to a good buddy who saw an interview where someone said that in a few weeks, the Delta wave would be over. I pulled out the chart, and by any measure, it does not appear so! The only time this model failed was the Singapore KTV Club surge, which is an anomaly, and a gamechanger... much as an awakening call. Otherwise, it has been pretty darn reliable. Just hours ago... the CDC reversed its decision/recommendation on vaccinated people and mask wearing. Essentially, admitting that even vaccinated people can be infected, and spread the Delta variant. www.nytimes.com www.washingtonpost.com www.bloomberg.com Check in again in September! Meanwhile... please take care and be safe.
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by Auguraltrader