$HAPP Bullish rise out of a large Covid downturn over last year?This is a technical analysis of the symbol $HAPP using primarily MACD, RSI and Ichimoku meant to explore if the current trend is temporary volatility or a turn to bullish.
Since February 2020 $HAPP has had a large bear trend down from 5.00 $ to a current 2.00 $ with a lowest price of 1.50 $ in between. Now there has been signs of a return to a bearish trend since November 2020 with, in my regard, the most clear signal being the Ichimoku cloud for the first time closing and returning to green.
In the image you can see the four primary signals that indicate a bullish trend, highlighted with suns:
The price has once again and recently passed over a MA 56 .
The MACD has just passed its signal line and instead of doing so above the 0 mark, it has done so right below it.
The RSI has moved over the bottom line and is at the time of writing also moving upwards.
The Ichimoku is yet again about to close its red cloud and return to green.
These are all very clear signals, but lets now look how this chart could instead be interpreted as an impending bearish turn-back. Here are some signals, and thoughts, on this:
As Volatility rises so also is any perceived signals reliability weakened.
The last lowest candle on the 4 of March 2021 reached a lower price-point than it did in the low candle on the 20th of January 2021. If this trend continues, that is the clearest sign that a return to bearish trend is impending.
The RSI could fail to reach the same height as it did on the 16th of February and if it does that could a good indicator that the momentum of the price has halted or at least been lowered.
And finally, a few thought on the ranges of the two recent value spikes that had their highs on the 12th of January and the 17th of February:
Their price ranges were similar with a value increase of 0.6-0.7 $.
Volatility hasn't decreased in any significant way.
These two factors together could suggest an impending third spike soon, but because of the lower starting price of this spike it is unclear how far it will move.
I believe if it moves above the pre-established 0.6-0.7 $ price increase seen previously then that could strongly indicate that the price will lower in Volatility and a more steady bullish trend could be on its way.
In conclusion:
I interpret the points laid before you that there is a high probability of an impending spike in price that could be over within a day or two after it´s hit its peak. This is due to uncertainty whether it is a true trend reversal, wishes and beliefs by long term investors that it is a true trend reversal and that their wishes have been met by shorter term investors who cash out or bail out at any sign that the spike has peaked.
There are also good potential signals that the trend could be more long-term bullish:
If the RSI moves above its previous high on the 17th it would indicate a turn in trend to steady bullish.
If the price stays within a price range of ~0.20 $ shortly below a high for around a week it would strongly indicate a turn in trend to steady bullish.
If the Ichimoku keeps a green cloud open for longer than a month it would strongly indicate a turn in trend to steady bullish.
Thank you, and please, if you have any other thoughts or counter-points make sure to share them so I may discuss this symbol or my methods with you.
Covidrecovery
Is Groupon another recovery play?Groupon took a big hit in march 2020 when covid became pandemic. Ever since then it has developed a well formed upward channel to 30-40 dollar price range. It has always been in my radar for a recovery play but however I never press the button to open a position until recently it started edged up from $35-$38 just before its earning release. I was hoping the recent turmoil could bring it back to $35 range but it just never hit my buy order.
Of course what happened after is well known by now, NASDAQ:GRPN earning well exceeded everyone's expectation and its price shot way up to $43.
While I continue to be bullish about this stock but I always try to control my risk/reward ratio to 1:1.5 like many of my other recommendations. So I would hope Groupon's stock price could consolidate back to $38, which I have already put a buy order there to open a position with $35 as my cut loss... with an upside price target at the mid-way of its trading range prior to the covid drop at $53 dollar....although It may never come back to $38 anymore.
If the recent bond yield fiasco cool down back to <1.2% I would be keen to raise my entry point a bit up to $40....At the time of this writing, I have no position in Groupon.
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