Long live cattleLive cattle went to the eight hour fib and has started to create a bounce. With corn, soy beans, and we even wheat up 2 to 4% today. Live cattle is going to potentially make up that gap in the next few days.
COW
WOLF, IS IT TIME TO JOIN THE WOLF PACK? TRENDS AND PRICE TARGETSBearish price targets are also sell targets for bulls.
Bullish price targets are sell targets for bears.
Basically, price targets are relative to your trade.
If confused, please ask.
Why are we talking about bears with WOLF?
#1 answer
Sharp Downtrends
And support trends trading in a bearish direction.
#2 answer
Gaps to the topside.
#3 answer
RSI still bearish
In an ideal world, price might project something like the guideline I've drawn.
Don't follow this guideline, it is more for me to backtrack and correct errors. On top of that, I create a lot of charts, and to remember what I was seeing on a chart, multiple months in the past can be nearly impossible. However, it is there to show you a one of many potential movements out of these trends, I often draw the most natural movement, which doesn't always align with reality. Instead, focus on trend breaks and price targets.
Earnings on the 24th of FEB.
"Hungry Like the Wolf
Duran Duran
Darken the city, night is a wire
Steam in the subway, earth is afire (do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do)
Woman, you want me, give me a sign
And catch my breathing even closer behind (do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do)
In touch with the ground
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
Smell like I sound, I'm lost in a crowd
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Straddle the line in discord and rhyme
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
Mouth is alive, with juices like wine
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Stalked in the forest, too close to hide
I'll be upon you by the moonlight side (do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do)
High blood drumming on your skin, it's so tight
You feel my heat, I'm just a moment behind (do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do-do)
In touch with the ground
I'm on the hunt I'm after you
A scent and a sound, I'm lost and I'm found
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Strut on a line, it's discord and rhyme
I howl and I whine, I'm after you
Mouth is alive, all running inside
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Hungry like the wolf
Hungry like the wolf
Hungry like the wolf
Burning the ground, I break from the crowd
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
I smell like I sound, I'm lost and I'm found
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Strut on a line, it's discord and rhyme
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
Mouth is alive, with juices like wine
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Burning the ground, I break from the crowd
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
Scent and a sound, I'm lost and I'm found
And I'm hungry like the wolf
Strut on a line, it's discord and rhyme
I'm on the hunt, I'm after you
Mouth is alive all running inside
Songwriters: John Taylor, Simon Le Bon, Nick Rhodes, Andy Taylor, Roger Taylor. For non-commercial use only."
CowSwap COW - Reload Price rangesJust setting this up as a reminding to build my position.
Start DCA at prices below 0.15
DCA harder anything below 0.10
Deploy all capital for anything below 0.075
Bold strategy cotton, lets see if it pays off for him.
Live Cattle Drift LowerCattle Summary
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 258.34, Down 1.45 from the previous day.
Select: 237.74, Down 1.94 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 20.60
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 144.85
Live Heifer:145.00
Dressed Steer: 229.85
Dressed Heifer: 229.80
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 125,000 head, 1,000 more than last week and 6,000more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
8/30/2022: 183.04
8/29/2022: 183.00
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
October live cattle broke lower yesterday, taking out the previous day's low, making its way closer to the cluster of major moving averages, which we've listed as near-term downside target for some time now. If the market is unable to defend this support pocket, it's possible that we see the selling accelerate. We are keeping a very close eye on outside markets as they remain volatile and seemingly uneasy.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975***, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 143.25-143.775
Support: 141.75-142.10****, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Live Cattle Shrug Off Outside Market WeaknessCattle Summary
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 259.79, Down 3.25 from the previous day.
Select: 239.68, Down 3.07 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 20.11
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 144.00
Live Heifer: N/A
Dressed Steer: N/A
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
8/29/2022: 183.00
8/26/2022: 183.16
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
October live cattle futures were able to break the 4-day streak of lower prices, on a day when the outside markets saw meaningful pressure. If you're bullish the market, this is your silver lining. The market finished the session right near the upper end of our pivot pocket, 143.25-143.775. If the Bulls can keep yesterday's momentum alive, perhaps we see a retest of 145.10-145.975. We are in the camp that the cash market may stall out, which could limit the upside. We are monitoring outside markets and commodities as a whole, if they continue to trend lower, it will be an uphill climb for live cattle. We are still in the camp that the three major moving averages could be tested in the near term.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975***, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 143.25-143.775
Support: 141.75-142.10****, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Cattle Futures Finished Lower Yesterday. More of the Same TodayCattle Summary
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 264.46, Up 1.09 from the previous day.
Select: 239.72, Up .13 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 24.74
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 144.39
Live Heifer: 143.70
Dressed Steer: 229.93
Dressed Heifer: 229.86
Daily Slaughter
Estimated at 124,000. 5,000 more than last week and 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Feeder Cattle Index
8/12/2022: 179.04
8/11/2022: 178.28
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
October live cattle held well early in the session but gave up ground as the day continued. The Pullback brought prices back into our pivot pocket from 142.75-143.75. In yesterday’s report we noted that “The Bulls have the technical advantage until we see a breakdown back below this pocket.”. A failure to defend this level in today’s session could lead to a retest of trendline support and three major moving averages. All of these indicators come in from 141.35-141.90. With so many indicators converging in one pocket, we are labeling this as a MUST HOLD level.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 142.75-143.75
Support: 141.35-141.90****, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Cattle Futures are on the MOOOveCattle
Daily Cutout Values
Choice: 263.23, Down 1.50 from the previous day.
Select: 237.08 Down .62 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 26.15
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 146.00
Live Heifer: 139.15
Dressed Steer: 231.87
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Daily Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. 2,000 more than last week and 8,000 more than the same week last year.
Weekly Export Sales
Beef: Net sales of 14,600 MT for 2022 were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technical Snapshot
Live Cattle
October live cattle recovered all of the losses from the previous session and then some, achieving their highest daily close since the month of May. If the Bulls are able to defend support and mark higher lows, then the April gap is still in-play, 145.10-145.975.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 142.75-143.75
Support: 141.425-141.90***, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Consolidating Cattle Tuesday's Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 1,000 less than last week, but 1,000 more than the same week last year.
Tuesday's Cutout Values
Choice: 268.46, Down 2.14 from the previous day.
Select: 241.55, Down 1.35 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 26.91
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: N/A
Live Heifer: N/A
Dressed Steer: N/A
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Live Cattle
Technicals (October): Consolidation is the name of the game for live cattle, as futures continue to tread on/near the 100-day moving average, 141.85. A break and close below this pocket could take us down to a 140.40-140.975. This pocket represents the 50 and 200 day-moving average, along with trendline support from the May 31st lows (all of which are climbing higher each day. As mentioned in previous reports and interviews, we would look at this as a potential buying opportunity for clients who want to be long.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 141.85
Support: 140.40-140.975***, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Live Cattle Continue to Consolidate Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 5,000 more than last week and 11,000 more than the same week last year.
Friday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 269.24, Up 1.47 from the previous day.
Select: 242.25, Up 1.44from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 26.99
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 139.07
Live Heifer: 137.73
Dressed Steer: 225.42
Dressed Heifer: 225.34
Live Cattle
CoT Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 17,841 futures/options through July 26th. This expands their net long position to 37,505.
Technicals (October): For the week, October live cattle were down .775, trimming the gains for the month to 3.45. Despite the lower price action last week, the 100-day moving average was able to hold, that comes in at 141.86. A break and close below here could take us to the 50 and 200 day moving average, 140.225-140.90. Within this pocket is trendline support from the June lows. Our short-term bias is pretty neutral, but a pullback to this support pocket would likely have us looking to lean more on the bullish side.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 141.80-141.90
Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Is Cattle Due for a Pullback?
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. Unchanged from last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Tuesday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 269.11, Up 1.00 from the previous day.
Select: 243.88, Down 1.12 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 25.23
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 141.00
Live Heifer: N/A
Dressed Steer: N/A
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Live Cattle
Technicals (October): October live cattle futures gave back some ground yesterday after failing to get out above technical resistance. The market pulled back, but it wasn’t enough to do any technical damage. A break and close below our pivot pocket from 141.80-141.90 may be the inflection point which may cause more damage if it cannot hold. Below that pocket, there isn’t a lot of meaningful support until you get closer to trendline support, the 50 and 200 day moving average. All of these come in from about 140-141. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the market retest these levels in the near term.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 141.80-141.90
Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Are Cattle Futures Set for a Bigger Breakout? Friday's Slaughter is estimated at 119,000. 1,000 less than last week, but 7,000 more than the same week last year.
Friday's Cutout Values
Choice: 267.12, Down .64 from the previous day.
Select: 242.50, Up 1.97 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 24.62
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 140.65
Live Heifer: 138.50
Dressed Steer: 227.51
Dressed Heifer: 226.76
Cattle on Feed Snapshot
Cattle on Feed 100% VS Estimates 99.8%
Placed: 98% VS Estimates 94.3%
Marketed: 102% VS Estimates 102%
Live Cattle
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 1,585 contracts through July 19th. Majority of this was short covering. This puts their net position at 19,665 contracts. This is a historically small position. We would consider a net long of 40k as relatively neutral positioning.
Technicals (October): Live cattle futures finally got a nice move higher on Friday, will that be sustained in today’s trade? TBD. The market is testing the highs from June 9th and June 21st. A close above here could open the door for an extension into April 25th gap, 145.10-145.975. The Bulls will want to defend 141.80-141.90.
Resistance: 145.10-145.975****, 147.35-147.50**
Pivot: 141.80-141.90
Support: 139.975-140.675**, 138.025-138.35****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Cattle Consolidate Ahead of USDA Report Wednesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 less than last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Wednesday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 270.53, Down 2.04 from the previous day.
Select: 242.25, Down 1.48 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 28.28
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer:136.59
Live Heifer: 136.56
Dressed Steer: 227.60
Dressed Heifer: 228.00
Cattle on Feed Estimates (Report out tomorrow after the close)
On-Feed: 99.8%
Placed: 94.3%
Marketings: 102%
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): The technical landscape remains unchanged as the market continues to consolidate and linger near the 100 and 200 day moving averages (135.60 and 135.70). The August contract is starting to run against the shot clock so we will start covering the October contract starting next week.
Resistance: 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**, 141.625-141.825****
Pivot: 135.575-135.725
Support: 134.20**, 132.775-133.30***, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Is a bigger move on the horizon? Monday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. Unchanged from last week, but 9,000 more than the same week last year.
Monday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 270.55, Up 1.64 from the previous day.
Select: 242.66, Up .87 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 27.89
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer:142.12
Live Heifer: 139.98
Dressed Steer: 229.48
Dressed Heifer: 229.62
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): August live cattle futures came out of the gate strong to start the week but gave back some of those early games by the afternoon session. Though the price action was again disappointing as it continues to test the patience of the Bulls, there was no technical damage done. We remain optimistic and believe that a run into the April 25th gap is still possible, but we are starting to run against the shot clock and wouldn’t recommend holding your breath for that move.
Resistance: 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**, 141.625-141.825****
Pivot: 135.575-135.725
Support: 134.20**, 132.775-133.30***, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
BREAKOUT WATCHLive cattle futures are on the verge of a technical breakout, something that we've been rooting for for some time now. The cash market remains firm, and the charts are getting more constructive.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will Live Cattle Ever Fill the GapFriday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. 4,000 more than last week, and 4,000 more than the same week last year.
Friday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 267.89, Down .18 from the previous day.
Select: 241.85, Down .73 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 26.04
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer:144.37
Live Heifer: 141.69
Dressed Steer: 232.30
Dressed Heifer: 232.23
Live Cattle
Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 9,968 futures/options, through July 5th. The Bulk of this was new short positions, 7,162. This shrinks their net long position to 14,297.
Technicals: For the week ending July 8th, August live cattle were down .65. The market continues to chop around in the middle of the range over the last two months. Recently, major moving averages have been a roadblock for the Bull camp. Today, those come in at 135.425 (200 day moving average) and 135.95 (100 day moving average). We remain stubbornly optimistic that we can work back out above these levels and potentially make another run at filling the April 25th gap.
Resistance: 135.40-136.05***, 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**
Pivot: 134.40
Support: 132.45-132.775***, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Lean Hogs Act as a Flight to Safety?
Lean Hogs
Technicals (August): It was a risk-off day in nearly every commodity yesterday, with the exception of lean hogs. Lean hog futures were able to rally up near the 50-day moving average which we’ve listed as first resistance. That finished yesterday’s session at 106.90. Just above that is trendline resistance from the March 31st high, that comes in near 107.50. If the Bulls can find enough follow-through today to chew through that resistance pocket, we could see an extension towards 110.
Resistance: 106.90-107.50****, 110.075-110.225***, 111.30***
Pivot: 103.00-103.95
Support: 101.30-101.60**, 98.00-98.65****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Are Feeder Cattle Setting Up for a Bigger Directional Move?Feeder Cattle
Technicals (August): Feeder cattle made an attempt to breakout yesterday but fell flat, despite the bloodbath in the grain complex. As mentioned in recent reports, the inability to take out recent highs with the collapse in grains should be a caution flag for the Bulls. That’s not to say we can’t rally from here, but the recent price action has been dismal. Perhaps feeders were pricing in a breakdown in corn prices for a while now, that’s the first thought that comes to mind. Nonetheless, the market is consolidating and looks ready for a bigger directional move once support or resistance gives way.
Resistance: 175.35-175.65****, 176.80-177.075***
Pivot: 171.45 -172.40
Support: 169.40**, 167.325**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Live Cattle Continue to Disappoint
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week, and 6,000 more than the same week last year.
Tuesday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 264.66, Up .84 from the previous day.
Select: 239.87 Down .60 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 24.79
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: N/A
Live Heifer: N/A
Dressed Steer: N/A
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): Live cattle finished last week with a strong rally, setting the table for continuation to start this week’s trade. As the cattle market has gone recently, that optimism faded quickly in yesterday’s trade as prices retreated and erased nearly all of Friday’s gains. With the market chopping around, many of the technical support and resistance pockets remain unchanged from yesterday’s report. 135.25-135.75 is the first barrier that the Bulls want to overcome to encourage a bigger and more meaningful rally attempt.
Resistance: 135.25-135.75***, 136.20**, 137.95-138.75***, 140.275**
Pivot: 134.70
Support: 132.45-132.775***, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Feeder Cattle Rally on Weaker Corn MarketsFeeder Cattle
Technicals (August): Feeder cattle were able to catch a rally yesterday, thanks in part to the corn market collapsing following a “neutral” USDA report. Though it was nice to see a rally, the recent price action relative to the sharp decline in corn has been less than impressive. Not that it has to be a 1:1 correlation, but we would have expected to be a little closer to the 180 neighborhoods. Stiff resistance comes in from 175.35-175.65. This pocket represents the 100 and 200 day moving average, along with what was previously (recently) trendline support. A conviction close above this pocket may be what the Bulls need to work back towards the upper end of the recent range.
Resistance: 175.35-175.65****, 176.80-177.075***
Pivot: 171.45 -172.40
Support: 169.40**, 167.325**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will Cattle Futures Rally to Meet the Cash Market?
Thursday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 more than last week, and 7,000 more than the same week last year.
Thursday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 264.00, Down .88 from the previous day.
Select: 240.57 Down .24 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 23.43
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 145.85
Live Heifer: 143.55
Dressed Steer: 234.01
Dressed Heifer: 233.98
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): August live cattle made new lows for the move in yesterday’s session but were able to recover and finish the last trading day of the month/quarter/half in positive territory. With the cash market remaining firm, some of the pressure may be attributed to technical selling and end of the month/quarter positioning. We remain optimistic that live cattle will be able to work back towards some of those key moving averages, north of 135.00.
Resistance: 134.85-135.25 ***, 135.975-136.60**, 138.75**, 140.275**
Pivot: 132.45-132.775
Support: 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Feeder Cattle Threaten a Technical Breakdown Feeder Cattle
Technicals (August): August feeder cattle futures broke below trendline support yesterday, which took prices into our 4-star support pocket, 171.45-172.40. All else held equal, this is a MUST HOLD pocket for the Bulls, a break and close below could open the door for a drop into the mid-160’s. We say “all else held equal” because tomorrow’s USDA report may have a big impact on price action that could negate short term technical.
Resistance: 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075***
Pivot: 173.75-174.02
Support: 171.45 -172.40****, 169.40**, 167.325**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Can Cattle Avoid the Death Cross?
Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week and 5,000 more than the same week last year.
Tuesday’s Cutout Values
Choice: 267.14, Down 1.54 from the previous day.
Select: 243.31, Down 1.93 from the previous day.
Choice/Select Spread: 23.44
5 Area Average Cattle Price
Live Steer: 137.00
Live Heifer: 147.20
Dressed Steer: N/A
Dressed Heifer: N/A
Live Cattle
Technicals (August): August live cattle were lower on the session, closing at the lowest price since May 31st. Yesterday’s close was right in our first support pocket, 132.45-132.775. IF the Bulls fail to defend this pocket on a closing basis, we cannot rule out a further breakdown and retest of the May 31st low, 129.975. Though we remain optimistic, yesterday’s down day is just another notch on the belt for a market that hasn’t been able to get anything going for some time now. Th
Resistance: 134.85-135.25 ***, 135.975-136.60**, 138.75**, 140.275**
Support: 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725****
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Feeder Cattle Futures Are Coiling Feeder Cattle
Technicals (August): August feeder cattle were technically sound yesterday, trading nearly perfectly against our technical support and resistance pockets, only to finish the session near our pivot pocket. Those technical pockets remain in play today as the market continues to coil, marking higher lows and lower highs. This type of consolidation typically leads to a bigger directional move. Trendline resistance, the 100 and 200 day moving average are the big barrier on the resistance side of things, that pocket comes in from 175.50-176.125. On the support side, it’s trendline support from the May 20th lows.
Resistance: 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075***
Pivot: 173.75-174.02
Support: 171.45 -172.40****, 169.40**, 167.325**
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
