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Live Cattle Retreat. Will Support Hold?Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle were under pressure all day yesterday, trading down to the low end of our first support pocket, 134.85-135.35. Yesterday’s low was 134.85. If the Bulls cannot defend this pocket through today’s session, it may open the door for another leg lower, with the next support pocket coming in near 132.45-132.775. On the support side of things, the Bulls want to get back out above yesterday’s high and the 100-day moving average, 135.975 and 136.60. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 135.975-136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Can Feeder Cattle Rebound with Lower Corn Prices? Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle futures failed against our resistance pocket from 175.50-176.125 which put them in reverse. August feeders filled the illusive gap, which was a gap lower on June 13th but a gap higher on June 21st. Yesterday’s failure to get out above technical resistance was somewhat of a caution flag as it did mark lower highs, but no significant damage was done to the chart. Trendline support and the 50-day moving average remain intact, that comes in from 171.45 (50 dma)- 172.40 (trendline support from the May 23rd lows. Resistance: 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075*** Pivot: 173.75-174.02 Support: 171.45 -172.40****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Feeders Find Strength Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): Feeder cattle gaped higher which was to be expected with the weaker grain trade. That gap is largely intact with today’s trade, except now it will act as support and not resistance. With that said, the fell flat against our resistant pocket above the old gap, we’ve had that defined as 175.50-176.125. This pocket represents previously important price points, along with the 100 and 200 day moving average. If corn futures are able to stabilize for the rest of the week as we head into options expiration, we could see the market consolidate back towards trendline support and the 50-day moving average. Resistance: 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075*** Pivot: 173.75-174.02 Support: 170.975 -171.65****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Consolidate Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. 4,000 more than last week and 4,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 267.56, Up 1.06 from the previous day. Select: 246.70, Up .31 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 20.86 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: N/A Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: N/A Dressed Heifer: N/A Live Cattle Technicals (August): It was more of the same for live cattle, trading on both sides of the 100-day moving average for the fourth consecutive session. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 137.90-137.95, we could (finally) see an extension into the April 25th gap, 138.75-140.275. On the support side of things, 134.85-135.40 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend. This pocket represents previously important price points, along with the 50 and 200 day moving average. A break and close below that pocket would be a dagger in the heart for the Bull camp as it could spur a retracement back to the 132 area. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Are Cattle Futures on the Verge of a Bigger Rally? Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. Unchanged from last week, but 6,000 more than the same week last year. Friday’s Cutout Values Choice: 266.26, Down .90 from the previous day. Select: 246.53, Up 1.15 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 19.73 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 143.73 Live Heifer: 142.94 Dressed Steer: 229.73 Dressed Heifer: 229.95 Live Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 10,576 futures/options through June 14th. Much of which was short covering (12,733 contracts). This expands their net long position to 31,926. Broken down, that is 76,596 longs VS 44,670 shorts. This is still a relatively neutral breakdown for the funds, which continues to favor the Bulls. Technicals (August): August live cattle were choppy to round out last week’s trade, finishing the session right near unchanged, which is also in line with the 100-day moving average, 136.62. Outside markets are firm this morning which may help provide a tailwind to the market. If the Bulls can chew through resistance from 137.90-137.95, we could (finally) see an extension into the April 25th gap, 138.75-140.275. On the support side of things, 134.85-135.35 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
A Tailwind for Feeder CattleFeeder Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 1,354 futures/options through June 14th. This shrinks their net short position to 3,553. Broken down that is 10,436 longs VS 13,989 shorts. Technicals (August): August feeder cattle futures were able to defend trend line support on Friday, the third time in five sessions that it was tested and held. That comes in at 171.65 today. On the resistance side of things, the gap from June 13th was partially filled last week, but remains open up to 174.025. Grain markets are sharply lower this morning which may act as a headwind for feeder cattle on the open. Resistance: 173.75-174.02***, 175.50-176.125**, 176.80-177.075*** Support: 170.975 -171.65****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Shrug Off Outside Market WeaknessThursday's Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week, but 5,000 more than the same week last year. Thursday's Cutout Values Choice: 267.16, Down 1.06 from the previous day. Select 245.38, Down .30 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 21.78 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 144.10 Live Heifer: 143.22 Dressed Steer: 229.47 Dressed Heifer: 229.78 Outside Markets as of 6:15 AM Dow Jones +195 points, Up .65% S&P 500 +33 points, Up .89% U.S. Dollar +.665, Up .63% Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle were down on the session, but they were resilient in brushing off the carnage that was taking place in the equity markets. Most of our bias this week has been, cattle will go will equities go. The fact cattle were able to hold ground indicates to us that there is good underlying strength in the market as high temperatures and a stout cash market have kept a floor in the market this week. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Feeder Cattle Test Trendline Support. Will it Continue to Hold?Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle bulled back to trendline support (see chart below), which was defended into the close. Futures finished the session right near the 50-day moving average, 171.00. Grains were firm yesterday which may have added a headwind to feeders. Grains are firm again this morning which may keep that headwind in place on the open. If the Bulls cannot defend support, a drop back to Monday's low, 169.40, wouldn't be out of the question. On the resistance side of things, the gap from Monday is still intact, though partially filled on Wednesday, 173.75-174.025. Resistance: 173.75-174.025***, 176.45-177.075***, 178.225**, 181.65-182.10**** Support: 170.55 -171.00****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Feeder Cattle Technical Update (6.16.22)Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): August feeder cattle were firm today, despite the strength in the corn market. A lot of today’s action in commodities was likely on the back of the outside markets showing signs of stabilization. Feeders traded up into our resistance pocket, 173.85-174.02 but couldn’t get much more going, keeping that pocket intact for tomorrow’s session. On the support side of things, 170.975-171.40 is the pocket the Bulls need to defend. This pocket represents previously important price points, trendline support from the May 23rd lows, and the 50-day moving average. Resistance: 173.75-174.02***, 176.45-177.075***, 178.225**, 181.65-182.10**** Support: 170.975 -171.40****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Live Cattle Fundamental and Technical Outlook (6.16.22)Wednesday's Slaughter is estimated at 126,000. Unchanged from last week, but 5,000 more than the same week last year. Wednesday's Cutout Values Choice: 268.22, Down 1.22 from the previous day. Select245.68, Down 1.14 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 22.54 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 143.81 Live Heifer: 142.99 Dressed Steer: 229.10 Dressed Heifer: 229.65 Outside Markets as of 6:00 AM Dow Jones -571 points or 1.86% S&P 500 -85 points or 2.20% Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle gaped higher on the open as the outside markets showed signs of live. The move higher filled the Monday morning gap and then some. The market finished the session a hair above the upper end of our resistance pocket, 136.625. If the Bulls can continue to defend this, we could see a move back above last week’s highs, 137.90-137.95. Above that pocket and we likely extend into the giant gap from April 25th, 138.75-140.275. On the support side of things, 134.85-135.35 is the pocket the Bulls will want to defend. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 136.60 Support: 134.85-135.35***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Feeder Cattle Technical Update (6.12.22) Feeder Cattle Technicals (August): As with live cattle, feeder cattle were choppy, trading on both sides of unchanged only to finish the session near unchanged. There is a gap left from the Monday morning open, that comes in from 173.75-174.025. We would not be surprised to see this gap get filled, especially if the corn market cannot find its footing. Above that is the 100-day moving average at 176.45. On the support side of things, 170.25-170.725 is the pocket for the Bulls to defend. This represents trendline support from the May 23rd lows as well ass the 50 day moving average. Resistance: 173.75-174.02***, 176.45-177.075***, 178.225**, 181.65-182.10**** Pivot: 171.40-171.925 Support: 170.30 -170.725****, 169.40**, 167.325** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GF1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Live Cattle Fundamental and Technical Outlook (6.12.22)Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 122,000. 4,000 less than last week, but unchanged from the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 269.44, Down 1.10 from the previous day. Select: 246.82, Down .63 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 22.62 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 141.72 Live Heifer: 143.00 Dressed Steer: 225.58 Dressed Heifer: 226.00 Live Cattle Technicals (August): Tuesday was mostly a nothing burger, with futures trading on both sides of unchanged, only to finish the session near unchanged. As mentioned in yesterday’s report, the outside markets will be the driver, ahead of today’s Federal Reserve announcement. The market is pricing in a .75% rate hike. The announcement will be at 1:00pm CT and a press conference at 1:30pm CT will follow. Resistance: 136.025-136.625***, 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 135.10-135.475 Support: 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Live Cattle Fundamental and Technical UpdateMonday’s Slaughter is estimated at 125,000. Unchanged from last week, but 8,000 more than the same week last year. Monday’s Cutout Values Choice: 270.54, Down .78 from the previous day. Select: 247.45, Down 1.44 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 23.09 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 140.14 Live Heifer: 138.35 Dressed Steer: 226.03 Dressed Heifer: 225.95 Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle got taken to the woodshed yesterday, along with nearly every other market out there as a risk-off sentiment fed on itself ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting where the chances of a .75 rate hike went from 25% to 94% over the span of one trading session. As painful as yesterday may have been, it prices in the bearishness that comes with a more rapid rate increase and leaves room for outside markets to rally if the Fed only comes in with a .50 hike. If the Fed hiked rates a full point, that would obviously be another story. Needless to say, outside market money flow and sentiment will be a key catalyst through tomorrow’s Fed meeting. Resistance: 136.025-136.625***, 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275** Pivot: 135.10-135.475 Support: 134.40-135.10***, 132.45-132.775**, 129.975-130.725**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Feeder Cattle Need to Defend Support to Keep Momentum Feeder Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 3,798 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net short position to 5,472. Broken down, that is 10,900 longs VS 16,372 shorts. Technicals (August): August feeder cattle retreated on Friday after failing against technical resistance, which we had outlined in previous reports as 176.75-177.075. This pocket represents previously important price points and the 100-day moving average. If the Bulls can eventually chew through this pocket, it would open the door for a potential run back near 182. On the support side of things, our first pocket from 174.00-174.30 remains intact after holding on Friday’s pullback. If that pocket gives way, we could retrace to last week’s breakout point and the 50-day moving average, 171.50-171.925. Resistance: 176.75-177.075***, 178.225**, 181.65-182.10**** Support: 174.00-174.30***, 172.90**, 171.50-171.925**** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:GFQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Will Outside Market Influence Today's Cattle Trade? Friday’s Slaughter is estimated at 124,000. 2,000 less than last week, but 5,000 more than the same week last year. Friday’s Cutout Values Choice: 271.32, Up .22 from the previous day. Select: 248.89, Down .72from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 22.43 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 140.52 Live Heifer: 139.41 Dressed Steer: 226.02 Dressed Heifer: 226.00 Live Cattle Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 9,265 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This expands their net long position to 21,350. Broken down, that is 78,753 longs VS 57,403 shorts. In last week's report we noted that this is a historically small position for Managed Money, which could be viewed as Bullish. Technicals (August): August live cattle failed to get follow through momentum after breaking out above technical resistance on Wednesday. Though the lack of follow through was disappointment for the Bulls (they are probably all used to it by now anyway), there wasn’t any technical damage done on the Thursday/Friday pullback. Previous resistance down near 134.40-135.10 is now significant support. The Bulls must defend this pocket to keep them in control of the technical landscape. On the resistance side of things, 137.90-137.95 is the first hurdle, this was last week’s highs. Above that and we could see the market finally make its way back to the April 25th gap, 138.75-140.275. Resistance: 137.90-137.95**, 138.75**, 140.275**, 141.625-141.75**** Pivot: 136.65 Support: 134.40-135.10***, 134.40-135.10*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:LEQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Daily Live Cattle Fundamental and Technical Outlook (6.8.22) Tuesday’s Slaughter is estimated at 126,000, Unchanged from last week and 5,000 more than the same week last year. Tuesday’s Cutout Values Choice: 271.42, Up 1.84 from the previous day. Select: 249.56 Down 1.53 from the previous day. Choice/Select Spread: 21.86 5 Area Average Cattle Price Live Steer: 141.00 Live Heifer: N/A Dressed Steer: 222.00 Dressed Heifer: N/A Live Cattle Technicals (August): August live cattle were able to defend our pivot pocket from 132.65-132.75 which heled prices recover some of Monday’s losses in yesterday’s session. Though encouraging, it is so far marked down as another failure against our resistance pocket from 134.40-135.10. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket with come conviction it could open the door for an extension towards the 100-day moving average, 136.65. Resistance:134.40-135.10***, 136.65**, 137.125-137.60*** Pivot: 132.625-132.75 Support: 130.00-130.65***, 126.80-127.30****
CME:LE1!
by OliverSloup_BlueLine