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Cozzamara

WTI Oil: Impact of SARS 2002/2003Hi Guys, just some infos: WTI dropped $15 when the World Health Organization issued a Global Alert iro SARS on March 12, 2003. en.wikipedia.org nCoV2019 was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019 What are your thoughts? If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
Oil: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”Hi Guys, January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand. Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days. The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani". Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus. Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows. www.reuters.com “Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff. The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart. For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
Gold: July closed Long Legged DojiHi Guys, XA = BC What if it was a Zig-Zag? If you consider the Math the numbers IMHO add up almost perfectly. Consideration: Same time last year it played bearish into mid-August with FED not hiking. However, following the meeting, FED members made very hawkish comments anticipating 2 rate hikes before end of 2018. Such posture made Gold to stop at 1160 and commence a bull run to complete the 2nd part of the cup. Today the candlestick structure is different even though we still have a long spike but in the opposite direction. For additional infos about Gold please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
Gold: some infosHi Guys, normally I do not use the A/D indicator or Volume becuase I don't need them for my trading. I want simplicity. That's why I use RSI and two SMAs in addition to XP, news, events and patterns. In this case A/D just confirms the strong bullish trend which is evident just by looking at price. Volume seems to provide confirmation of the divergence in hights with RSI which may signify that 1453 may be a top and a reversal may be forthcoming. However price has been supported above 1410 despite sentiment below 50 RSI line. Considering actual price position within above framework and forthcoming FED meeting on Jul 30-31 please trade carefully. IMHO, key factors that remains supportive for Gold (ref my post dated Jul 3rd - 4H chart) are: 1) Rising tensions in the Middle East; 2) Worries over a No-Deal Brexit; A loose monetary policy by CBs, IMHO, is not supportive for the precious metal on the long term. However, since USD may suffer from a rate cut, Gold may benefit for a short run. Finally please remember that Gold is considered a safe haven like JPY and that the moves of gold and USD/JPY are inversely correlated (108 for USD/JPY is a key level). For additional infos about Gold please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. Depending on your strategies I hope all the above informations will be of help. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
10
SILVER: Close up on support at $14Hi Guys, double bottom supporting at $14. 2nd bottom forming in divergence with RSI oversold. 230SMA stopping the pull back and pushing down as in 2016. IMHO a cross of the 230SMA with price breaking and consolidating above $16 may trigger a run towards $20 (1000SMA) with 1st TP at $18. Otherwise, IMHO, if support at $14 is breached, Silver will probably keep going down. Here is a scenario for the run IMHO unlikely but possible...key level $15 to support otherwise next $14.5. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:SILVER
by cozzamara
Gold/Silver RATIO: some thoughtsHi Guys, "The most common method of trading the ratio is that of hedging a long position in one metal with a short position in the other. For example, if the ratio is at historically high levels and investors anticipate a decline in the ratio that would reflect a decline in the price of gold relative to the price of silver, investors should simultaneously buy silver while selling short an equivalent amount of gold, looking to realize a net profit from a relatively better price performance of silver compared to that of gold." (source: Investopedia www.investopedia.com) Below Gold/silver ratio marking 29th Sept 2008 as the most recent peak at 88% same as today. I've added the same date both in #gold and #silver to show that 29th of Sept 2008 is the dip before skyrocketing. IMHO today's cause for such high ratio is not the same as in 2008. IMHO 2007-2008 Financial Crisis created a distortion that need to be taken into consideration. Since 2011 Gold lost 45% whilst Silver 70%. More ounces of Silver are required to buy Gold but why? Today Gold is up 94% and Silver 73% from last time their ratio hit such an high level. GOLD/SILVER RATIO www.investopedia.com TRADING THE GOLD-SILVER RATIO www.investopedia.com Hope the above clarifies but please do not hesitate to contact me for any queries, comments or feedbacks. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
OANDA:XAUXAG
by cozzamara
2
Gold: mid week11 updateHi Guys, Gold is pulling back from 1.310 once again but is still above 400SMA and supported by 200SMA. The double top may present an opportunity for a breakout of the 200SMA towards 1.294. However, in view of forthcoming FOMC meeting due today, intraday positioning is highly risky therefore not reccomended. On March 10, I posted a H4 chart presenting an H&S formation with a RS at approx.1.320/1.310. Price stopped at 1.310 before pulling back twice. Click & Play the following chart to watch the H&S pattern unfold: So, IMHO, if support is confirmed on those crossing SMAs Gold may still run for a RS higher than 1.310 to extend and complete the RS. If it falls below 1.300 though I will probably try to position myself to make profits towards 1.294. Good Luck & Carpe Diem!...if you can. Lol Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: Building divergence at 1285Hi Guys, the title speaks for itself. The trend is still down below 200SMA but the building divergence with RSI at 1285 may well favour a pull back into the 200SMA but AToW 50SMA still pushing down. OTOH it could still push and break below 1285 before mid week13. Don't forget the Cup & Hanlde Formation and the Bull Run started mid-Aug'18 which Gold is now retracing at 1285 (related ideas linked below). IMHO it will extend into the handle for a little time longer but the intra-day pullback may present an opportunity. Let's see how the move unfolds. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: focusing on the 4H chart (and triple S)Hi Guys, following my previous post please find above 4H chart focusing on the triple S support before the pullback at the end of week17. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
USD/JPY: bullish into 112 or pause at 111,500?Hi Guys, above is a rough structure for USD/JPY which is no more than the follow up of the impulse receved last week after the triple bottom to attack 111,500 (see related ideas linked below for week 12). AToW 50SMA pushing and 500SMA supporting. Price formed a source as supportive formation which may be also a cup. If so, considering the building divergence in RSI, price may build the handle around 111,500. However, AToW, the pair is bullish into 112. Below a snapshot of the same timeframe but from farther. Please note that USD/JPY matters for Gold as their way of moving is inversely correlated. IMHO if USD/JPY pushes for 112. Gold pushes for 1285. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
by cozzamara
GOLD: Last two weeksHi Guys, the above is a close up of price movements inside the circled area: Now please forget about the chart with the circle and concentrate on the 30 minutes chart. To note: a) three levels: 1266, 1277 and 1288; b) price supported by 450SMA above 1277; c) RSI just above 50; IMHO, US China Trade negotiations and clues on inflation may trigger a big move. An opportunity for the downside may occur if support is lost at 1277 (ZigZag). An opportunity for the upside may be above 1288 (J-Hook). If Investors will buy again the dip in the stockmarket Gold may go down at 1266. If they don't buy SPX, Gold may run for higher highs at 1300. Hope the above clarifies but please do not hesitate to contact me for any queries, comments or feedbacks. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: Week17Hi Guys, first of all, thank you all for appreciating my works. I do my best to try to make sense of what makes no sense. At least for me. Like the move that Gold made today after strong NFP release. To be honest...I was not expecting that pullback. Especially I was not expecting to end week17 above the same support that was breached on Wednesday when FOMC ballet commenced. I was expecting strong NFP read therefore a move lower pushed by the 72SMA. NFP was 263K vs 181K but Gold pulled back majestically leaving me stunned. Well, while I try to give myself a reason I wanted to thank all those who supported my work and in particular @EdVanDerWalt (Bloomberg reporter, editor and markets Jedi) who even said that this chart was his chart of the week. twitter.com I like to believe he said it sincerely. Lol. I wouldn't have posted this chart if it wasn't for his words of support. You all make me feel good with your support. Thank you Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
S&P500 vs VIXHi Guys, I still don't know how to use VIX in order to buy SPX pullbacks into demand but IMHO the video explanation provided by Investopedia is a great place where to start. www.investopedia.com To note that if you set up this structure and enlarge it, VIX will overlap SPX due to 2008 Financial Crisis therefore its benefits may be obscured. I will try to post a snapshot below as soon as possible. In the meantime, please also have a look at the related idea linked below in respect of SPX which I hope may provide food for thought. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:SPX
by cozzamara
1
GOLD: Kick Off Week13Hi Guys, at the end of week12 price exited the distribution channel started in week9 and dived from 200SMA to built what IMHO is a short term support just a little bit above 1285 with 50SMA pushing down and stopping the pullback right at 1300. The pull back may extend into the 200SMA following divergence with RSI on Friday but only if 50SMA is crossed and re-tested for the upside during week13. AToW it is not the right time to enter such a move yet though. Plus, I don't see it happening. However need to be prepared. If 1280 do not hold next stop may be 1265. Let's wait and be patient. Not confortable entering any trade on Monday. Gold maybe still be looking to push for the bottom of the handle as referred to in the related ideas linked below. With all this in mind thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: inside the handleHi Guys, this is the handle I am referring to. AToW 100SMA keeping the pullback under control. This may offer a better idea of the activity inside the handle. Click & Play to watch it unfold. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
SPX: The Flash RecessionHi Guys, in theory, it looks very bullish and ready to make new ATH. But will the recovery rally help the market go above 3000? If this is a V-shaped recovery, what caused it? According to Investopedia "V-shaped recovery is one of countless shapes a recession and recovery chart could take" www.investopedia.com Uhm...so...have we just lived a Flash Recession and nobody noticed it? By the way, there are two wheels making a bycicle. We may have not fallen into the hole but a wall is forming in front. Lol Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
SP:SPX
by cozzamara
1
Gold: just a narrativeHi Guys, hope it is readable. 1. Financial crisis of 2007-2008 (en.wikipedia.org) 2.People emotions take shelter into safe haven 3.Capital take shelter into safe haven Fear and uncertainty drive the market. 4.In 2010 CBs & Govs. worldwide implement measures aimed to reassure and stabilize financial systems. 5.in 2012 the run is stopped. 6.Fear and skepticism slowly fade away. 7. Gold slowly returns to pre financial crisis levels. 8. Confidence seems to have been restored. 9.Everything back to normal. Is it so? For additional informations please refer to the related ideas linked below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: 4th wave round bottom coilingHi Guys, same narrative as previous posts. 2007 Financial Crisis increased demand for safe haven. Central Banks, by introducing policies to stabilize the financial system, eased the fear away and drove gold prices back to pre-financial crisis levels. From this perspective it could be a 4th wave rounding bottom on top of 1st wave. If so, price coiling and 5th still to come. However not sure from where to start counting the letters forming the triangle ending the triple corrective combination. Lol Linked below other structures that may support a bottoming 4th or help develop different ideas. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: Totally InsaneHi Guys, as the two red cups are, IMHO, supportive patterns,I'd like to know who is supporting gold. a) itself? b) gold industry? c) China, Russia, India? d) dollar system haters? e) fear of another Financial Crisis? Why should gold resume the negative impulse provided by the Financial Crisis 10 years ago? Soon the correction will be over and gold will exit its most recent bounderies made of abcde. Up or Down I don't know. It could continue to be squeezed across the SMA making pre-positioning very risky. I would be inclined to wait until the move unfolds before entering the market due to high probabilities of multiple shakeouts. Please also have a look at this: Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: It looks like a descending triangle......but it may NOT be. thepatternsite.com IMHO these formation cannot be found at the end of a bull run. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
DXY vs EUR/USD: XABCHi Guys, here below same moves made by EUR/USD: Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:DXY
by cozzamara
GOLD: week9 update (1)Hi Guys, Gold is pushing lower towards that support next to the 3. RSI is diverging big time but price still pushes. USD/JPY at the moment is bouncing on resistance at 112. A break above 112 would surely help Gold to break that support. But for the time being USD/JPY seems to have lost upside momentum and Gold seems considering about a run towards 1300 or the 100SMA if support holds. If support do not hold 1275 is the next level of support. Strategy: Wait & see Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Enjoy:) Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara
GOLD: Accumulation Wyckoff Events (week13-14)Hi Guys, I hope Richard Demille Wyckoff will forgive me for this. Lol To view Wyckoff's accumulation structure referred above click this link d.stockcharts.com For a brief introduction to The Wyckoff Method please click this link: stockcharts.com Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:GOLD
by cozzamara