Plans for the US FOMC laterMarch 20th (FOMC in Mind)
DXY: Consolidate along 103.80, could break lower briefly, overall trade higher to 104.50 resistance.
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6060 SL 25 TP 65 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6500 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Sell 150.55 SL 40 TP 180
GBPUSD: Straddle Buy 1.2740 SL 25 TP 75 or Sell 1.2690 SL 30 TP 90
EURUSD: Test and reject 38.2%, Sell 1.0870 SL 20 TP 65
USDCHF: Buy 0.8905 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Buy 1.3625 SL 20 TP 85
Gold: Below 2145 could trade down to 2125 (DXY strength dependent)
CPI
Capitec fakeout and waiting for conservative buy levelWe saw Capitec form a W Formation. The price broke above the neckline and then made a fakeout.
Now it will be testing the uptrend support line before further upside to come.
I am bullish cautiously, but we still need the demand levels to pick up.
The target will then be R2,485.00
LINKUSDT|Important areas and roadmapHi guys
You can see the popular currency chart link in the daily time frame.
I have identified the important areas of supply and demand for you.
Although we have crossed the range area and we have a close candle above this area, but it is placed on an important daily supply area and also the return candle has stabilized.
To ensure the continuation of the uptrend, we need to wait for the daily supply area to break.
In the second scenario, we can enter selling positions in small time frames by seeing reversal patterns.
For the growth of the link, if he gives us a confirmation, we can expect to go up to the target (25.6-2703).
SUPPLY ZONE (17.2-18.2) - (17.8-18.8) - (25.6-27.3)
DEMAND ZONE (15-15.5) - (13.5-14.5) - (11.7-12.3)
EURUSD: Addressing Temporary WeaknessGreetings Traders,
Bullish Channel: We're currently observing a bullish channel, with the price nearing its ceiling.
Key Levels: Pay attention to the concise of this month's R1, which has been broken, and the VAH of volume profile. These levels are pivotal for longer-term long positions and suggest refraining from short-term shorts.
Temporary Weak Bearish Phase: Despite a temporary weak bearish phase, expectations point to a strong rise by the middle of next week.
LTF Analysis: On lower time frames, watch for deeper corrections, offering opportunities for short trades.
CPI News Impact: Stay updated on CPI News, as surprises here could alter market dynamics significantly.
Wishing you profitable trades ahead!
Warm regards,
CORE CPI PRINTS HOT U.S Core CPI
Rep: 3.9% 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 3.7%
Prev: 3.9%
U.S. Headline CPI
Rep: 3.1% ✅In line with Expectations✅
Exp: 3.1%
Prev: 3.4%
Breaching below 3% is proving a difficult task for Headline CPI .
In 25 years of inflation history above and headline CPI cant seem to breach down below into the moderate <3% level
Since Oct 2023 Core CPI has only declined 0.1%.
PUKA
250+ Pips Profit On Gold On CPI DATATrade Setup Review: Gold Sell on CPI News
We recently capitalized on a strategic trade setup that involved selling gold in anticipation of higher CPI data. As predicted, the CPI data came out higher than expected, leading to a significant market movement that favored our position.
Result : Our foresight and timely action yielded a remarkable +250 pips profit. This outcome not only demonstrates the effectiveness of our trading strategy but also underscores the importance of staying informed about economic indicators and their potential impact on the markets.
We'll continue to monitor the markets for similar opportunities and aim to leverage economic news to our advantage. Stay tuned for more insights and trade ideas!
Follow For More Updates, Analysis And Free Signals.
Gold Cpi Confirm Analysis The high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for February will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. Inflation data could alter the market’s pricing of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot, ramping up volatility around the US Dollar (USD).
How To Trade Gold On CPI News DataAs a Gold Trader understanding and interpreting CPI data is crucial for making informed trading decisions. Here's a guide on how to read CPI data and a trade idea based on potential CPI outcomes:
---
Understanding CPI Data:
CPI Basics: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the price level of a market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
Core CPI: Core CPI excludes volatile items like energy and food, providing a clearer view of inflation trends.
Gold's Reaction: Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge. A rise in CPI may lower real interest rates, which can be positive for gold prices. However, gold reacts primarily to strong increases in inflation¹.
Trading on CPI Data:
High CPI: A higher-than-expected CPI may strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. Consider a short position if CPI is significantly above forecasts.
Low CPI: A lower-than-expected CPI could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. In this case, a long position may be favorable⁷.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Monitor the CPI release. If CPI is higher than expected, enter a short position; if lower, consider going long.
TP and SL: Set your take profit (TP) near the next resistance level for long positions or support level for shorts. Place your stop loss (SL) just above the recent swing high for shorts or below the swing low for longs.
Position Sizing: Adjust your position size to manage risk effectively, ensuring the SL does not exceed 1-2% of your trading capital.
Example Trade Setup:
If CPI is high: Short gold with SL above the last swing high and TP at the next significant support level.
If CPI is low: Go long on gold with SL below the last swing low and TP at the flag high or next resistance level.
Note :
Always use proper risk management and adjust your strategy based on the actual CPI data and market reaction.
---
Remember , CPI data can cause significant volatility in the gold market. Stay informed and be prepared to act quickly following the data release. Good luck! 📈
Follow for more setups and educational material
Japanese yen steady ahead of Tokyo Core CPIThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.34, up 0.13%.
Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, considered the most important inflation indicator, on Tuesday. The index fell to 1.6% y/y in January, below expectations and the lowest rate since May 2022, but the market estimate for February stands at 2.5%.
Inflation remains a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it mulls exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy. According to a report on the weekend, the government is considering announcing an official end to deflation. This would be a symbolic move but would likely be viewed by the markets as another signal that Tokyo is planning to remove negative interest rates in the next several months. After years of an ultra-accommodative policy, such a move would mark a sea-change for the Bank of Japan and would likely give a strong boost to the ailing Japanese currency.
On Thursday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said that the BoJ must overhaul is ultra-loose monetary policy, including an end to negative rates and removing bond yield control. Takata added that the BoJ was “seeing prospects of achieving our 2% inflation target”.
The initial results of Japan’s annual wage negotiations will be released on March 15th, followed by the BoJ meeting on March 19. The wage talks are expected to result in workers receiving higher wages, which will likely result in higher inflation. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any policy changes at the March meeting, with April or June the likely dates for a major announcement.
There is resistance at 150.90 at 151.69
150.05 and 149.26 are providing support
Natural Gas & Oil : is energy breaking out!Natural gas got a positive weekly close. this close sets up a potential short squeeze to $2 & $2.25 as long as we stay above the hourly chart neckline.
Oil has just made it highest weekly close in 18 weeks. Oil has now broken out to the upside and this could be very detrimental to consumers and the inflation fight.
If oil holds above $80 it's going to try to push for $84 and $90.
Gold royalty streamers oversoldAs a group, gold royalty streaming companies reacted negatively to the drop in gold price on February 13, 2024. This movement was triggered by US CPI for February printing slightly higher than expected by consensus, on the index and also MoM and YoY readings.
Reaction was an immediate spike in TVC:DXY and commensurate selloff in FX_IDC:EURUSD . This dragged risk assets down, with equities markets getting hit. TVC:GOLD also lost more than 1% in lockstep reaction.
The opportunity here is in the unwind of yesterday's outsized movement amongst the gold royalty streaming companies as a group. While some have performed better than others over the past year, they were all punished on this move. Typical drawdown was 10% on the day .
For consideration: A) a short term buy of one of these names and holding to pre-CPI price level, or B) a longer term entry for those with a bullish view on gold and appetite for leveraged exposure and desire for dividend income.
Happy Valentine's DayFeb 14th
DXY: Need to stay above 104.50, above 105 could trade up to 105.40
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6080 SL 15 TP 65 (Hesitation at 0.6045)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6485 SL 20 TP 40 (Alternative: Sell 0.6442 SL 30 TP 90)
USDJPY: Buy 150.60 SL 30 TP 120
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2505 SL 20 TP 50
EURUSD: Sell 1.07 SL 15 TP 35
USDCHF: Look for reaction at 0.89, Buy 0.8905 SL 20 TP 55
USDCAD: Sell 1.3525 SL 30 TP 90
Gold: Break below 1987 could trade down to 1975
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Post-CPIToday's focus: US30
Pattern – Diagonal
Support – 38,135, 37,135
Resistance – 38,810
Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 on the daily chart.
What a solid run we have seen till yesterday's CPI data. After US CPI came in hotter than expected, this shocked the market and led to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD).
We have broken down price action, price patterns and levels we are watching. Is this nothing more than a buying opportunity, or is this a potential momentum change?
Good trading.
🔥 XAU/USD - CPI is coming , Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)Well, as you can see and we mentioned it in the previous analysis, today we will have CPI statistics! The predicted rate for CPI Y/Y is 2.9%, if the actual number is higher than the expected rate, we will witness the growth of the dollar index and consequently the heavy fall of gold! Note that this scenario is only valid if the actual rate is higher than the forecast! If this scenario is realized, its targets will be $2020, $2016, $2012, and $2007, respectively! What do you say ?
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
NZDUSD,🔴CPI is coming...🔴(Details on caption)
Hello traders
As you can see the market maker sell model is forming on the NZDUSD 15 minutes chart and now we are on the second distribution phase. We looking for a mid-term high form in the premium, then the price goes down for the sell-side liquidity as a final target.
Simply put, the market structure shifted after touching the 4-hour bearish order block and we can expect the price to continue downtrend to sell-side liquidity.
In this scenario, I don't want the to price reach 0.61400 or higher.
💥Please pay attention: Today we have the CPI today and High volatility is expected💥
CPI Setup GOLD | Safe Zone CPI Setup GOLD | Safe Zone H1 Timeframe
Current point 2027.50
- This Setup is not based on Sell or buy
- According to last CPI Gold firstly moves 100+ pips in buy and then lay down
- After Structuring the data we expected 100 pips buy then gold will fall
- We set the safe zone if and if gold break the 2041 area then next move would be 2047
furthermore on the major support level if gold retest to break the 2012-2011-2010 next target
would be 2000.00
- At a same time CPI , CORE INFLATION RATE , YOY AND MOM all are highly impact news
- use proper lot size and risk management to secure profit because patience is a major key
This Analysis is uploaded at 13/02/2024
Cheers ..
🔥 EUR/USD - Time To Rise ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the EURUSD chart, we see that the price is trading in the supply range of 1.077, and I think that if the price can maintain the support of the range of 1.072 to 1.075, we will probably see the break of the resistance of 1.080 and rise to 1.088!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-13/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Silver has been stable for weeks and is one of the strongest instruments at the moment. Of course, the US CPI will be reflected in the metal. Despite the forecasted figures, we confidently continue to remain long on silver. The growth target is located at the level of 23.32250 . However, growth above this value can also be expected.
Thank you for like and share your views!