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CPI

Core and Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline PPI Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3% Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅ U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy) Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9% Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅ What is PPI and why is it important? Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about inflationary pressures at the producer level. By tracking changes in producer prices over time, it provides insights into inflation trends before they manifest in consumer prices. Difference between Core and Headline PPI The Core PPI aims to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation, while the headline index reflects all price changes, including those driven by more volatile components such as food an energy. You can see from the chart that Headline PPI in red is the swings more widely up and down due to the inclusion of these volatile components (food and energy). ✅ LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI TODAY✅ Core and Headline PPI came in lower than expected this month and as you can see we are reaching down into the historically more moderate zone between 3% and -1.5%. This bodes will for inflationary pressures in general and may be an early indicator of lower Core and Headline inflation figures (for CPI) in the coming months. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USCPPYY
by PukaCharts
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well. We have the gold chart in 1 hour.Currently, gold is fluctuating in a trending range area and we have the top and bottom of the trending range to enter trading positions. CPI data will be released today, if we have data that is in favor of gold, that is, the US inflation has decreased, this means that it will harm the dollar index and gold can move upwards. We should know that apart from the top of the trending range, which is a resistance, we have the next resistance in the area of (2046-2044) and after the resistance that is the base of the falling movement, it is around (2066-2064). On the other hand, if inflation is published more than expected, it will benefit the dollar index and can create selling pressure on gold. The area that currently maintains the price is the area (2016-2019). If this area is broken, the next support is the price range (2004-2008) and then the price range (1990-1995). If the price reaches these areas, we can enter trading positions with confirmation
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Star1994
1
⚡️Strifor || SILVER-US PPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Recent events in the Middle East have made markets nervous. In turn, this has traditionally generated demand for metals. However, so far the situation is not particularly serious, since Yemen is a constant point of hostilities. There are unlikely to be any strong purchases in metals until the end of today's trading day. But after the weekend, it is better not to postpone deals of this kind to the next week. Technically and considering volumes, shorts are still being looked for. We have two scenarios ready for the US PPI data. We consider the target for the fall to be at the level of 22.00. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: For Gold , we also consider two scenarios simultaneously. Since, against the backdrop of the publication of inflation data, it is quite logical to expect increased volatility, and false movements are not excluded. Our main direction is to sell and consider a fall to the 2000 level, with the potential for further declines. You can consider adding a short position at the level of 2060 . Stop loss is placed beyond the level of 2090 . The final fall can be expected down to the level of 1960 and 1950 . Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
3
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: As expected, due to the high correlation between the British pound and the Euro , the situation for these currency pairs before US inflation is absolutely the same. For this pair, scenario №1 is considered worked out. But scenario №2 does not lose its relevance. Therefore, scenario №2 is very relevant before the publication of data from the United States . We set the downside target at 1.26000. We place the stop loss at 1.28500 , closer to 1.29000. If something happens, within the specified stop loss ranges, you can consider adding a position or re-entering the sell. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Ahead of the inflation data , the situation for the Euro did not change. The current sluggish recovery is due to a surge in market sales that were missed by limit buyers. This does not mean that we will now grow rapidly. Most likely, a major player has not allowed the price to move, as the impulse is delayed until the US inflation publication, which will take place today. Two short scenarios are now autal, that is, two transactions can be active at once with a target at the level of 1.08000 . Stop loss should be placed slightly above the level of 1.11000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Short GBPUSD on Strong USD SentimentThe Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to a restrictive monetary policy aimed at restoring economic balance and curbing inflation, recent market sentiment strongly favors the US dollar. Against this backdrop, the GBPUSD pair finds itself in a precarious position, hovering around the pivotal point of 1.27815. The heightened expectations of the Fed continuing its policy firming, coupled with concerns over inflation, suggest a potential downside for GBPUSD. Technical analysis aligns with this sentiment, indicating a possible bearish trajectory towards the target level of 1.26181. As we delve into the intricacies of this forecast, it becomes evident that the dynamics of strong USD sentiment and the Federal Reserve's steadfast approach set the stage for a compelling trading opportunity. Technical Analysis: Current GBPUSD level: 1.27815 (around pivot point) Technical bias: Bearish 🐻 Target level: 1.26181 Reasoning: Strong USD Sentiment: The recent statements from the Federal Reserve suggest a commitment to a restrictive monetary policy stance to achieve their inflation target. This has led to a boost in market sentiment favoring the USD, as evidenced by recent economic data indicating inflationary pressures. Fed's Policy Actions: The Federal Reserve has implemented a restrictive policy over the past two years to achieve balance between demand and supply and restore price stability. The commitment to maintaining this stance until inflation reaches the 2 percent target suggests a continued strong sentiment for the USD. Inflation Concerns: The recent inflation data, with the consumer price index increasing by 3.4% in the year through December, highlights concerns about inflationary pressures. This could lead to a stronger push from the Fed to maintain a restrictive policy, adding to the bullish sentiment for the USD. Technical Levels: GBPUSD is currently around the pivot point area (1.27815), indicating a potential turning point. A break below this level could signal further downside movement. The target level of 1.26181 aligns with the bearish sentiment and provides a reasonable downside objective. Risk Management: Stop-loss can be set above Pivot Point or a key resistance level to manage potential losses. Monitor economic releases and Fed statements for any changes in sentiment that could impact the trade. Disclaimer: The outlined trading idea is not a guarantee of future results, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Always use risk management strategies such as setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. It is essential to stay updated on economic releases, central bank statements, and any other relevant news that might impact currency movements. Happy Trading! 📉🐻
Short
by fardycurry
XAUUSD BuyBuying Gold due to the failed close below 2016. I predicted 2012 last week, but to see this I'd anticipate good confirmation. This has not happened yet, CPI has dropped gold over 150 pips, now im expecting a clear push back to 2025+ area. Ive entered at 2016.54, targeting 2029.54 and my stop is set at 2013.54. Gives me a 1:4.33 R/R 1%Risk Entered at the low end of a 4Hr OB, which I'd like price to close above. Not to much more analysis here, kept it simple, still using @nephew_sam_ FVG indictor so testing this on my funded account.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by xEthan
Gold Under the weight of a hot CPIIn tomorrow's trading session, the spotlight is on XAUUSD as we consider a selling opportunity around the 2043 zone. To form a nuanced view, it's imperative to juxtapose the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data with preceding figures. The CPI figures from today—3.4% actual, 3.2% forecast, and 3.1% previous—demonstrate a slight uptick, indicating inflationary pressures persisting in the economy. Comparing this to the preceding months, we observe a gradual decline from 3.7% in October to 3.2% in August. Despite today's uptick, the overall trend signals a moderation in inflation. Now, let's delve into the implications. The unexpected nature of today's CPI data, surpassing both expectations and the previous figure, introduces an element of surprise. Markets are sensitive to such surprises, particularly when it comes to inflation, as they can influence monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected CPI could lead to speculations of a more hawkish stance from central banks, notably the Federal Reserve. Traders may anticipate a potential interest rate hike, a move that tends to strengthen the currency. Consequently, we can anticipate a favorable environment for the US dollar in tomorrow's session. Adding a technical layer to our analysis, Gold is currently navigating a downtrend, with a correction phase approaching the 2043 support and resistance area. The technical outlook aligns with the fundamental expectation of a potentially stronger US dollar. Gold and the US dollar often exhibit a negative correlation, where a stronger dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold prices. Traders should bear this in mind when considering positions in XAUUSD. In conclusion, the intersection of fundamental and technical factors paints a compelling narrative for tomorrow's trading session. The unexpected strength in CPI data introduces an element of uncertainty, and traders should remain vigilant to potential shifts in market sentiment. The technical setup in XAUUSD aligns with the fundamental expectation of a stronger dollar, emphasizing the importance of a holistic approach in navigating the markets. Trade wisely, Joe
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JoeChampion
6
EURUSD Breakout and Potential retrace with today's CPIIn today's trading session, our attention is focused on EURUSD, with a keen eye on a potential selling opportunity around the 1.09700 zone. After breaking out of its uptrend, the pair is currently in a correction phase, edging closer to the retrace area at the 1.09700 support and resistance zone. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could play a pivotal role. The US dollar's strength, influenced by economic indicators such as CPI, may impact the overall direction of EURUSD. Traders should keep a close watch on the evolving market dynamics, especially considering the potential implications of USD strength on this currency pair. As always, trade safe. Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
1
Core and Headline CPI RELEASED (Dec 2023 figures)Core and Headline CPI (Dec 2023 figures) U.S. Headline CPI Prev: 3.1% Exp: 3.2% Rep: 3.4% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 🚨 U.S. Core CPI Prev: 4.0% Exp: 3.8% Rep: 3.9% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - but still fell from 4% to 3.9%✅ CORE CPI FALLS BELOW 4% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021 We have a long way to go before we reach the Fed Target of 2%. Additional info previously shared: Core vs Headline (the difference) You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line. The Feds 2% Target It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first. You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by PukaCharts
GBPUSD - SELL CPIGood morning, everyone! Today, we're going to dive into an intriguing aspect of the forex market, focusing on how the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) impacts the GBP/USD currency pair. Understanding this relationship is crucial for traders and investors who navigate the complexities of forex markets. Understanding US CPI First, let's understand what the US CPI is. The Consumer Price Index is a vital economic indicator in the United States, measuring the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services. It's a key measure of inflation in the US economy. US CPI's Impact on Currency Now, how does the US CPI affect the GBP/USD pair? When the US CPI data is released, it can have a significant impact on the value of the US Dollar. A higher-than-expected CPI suggests rising inflation in the US, which could lead the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Higher interest rates typically strengthen the Dollar, as they attract investors looking for higher returns on their investments in US assets. In contrast, if the US CPI comes in lower than expected, indicating lower inflation, it might lead to a weakening of the Dollar. This is because lower inflation could signal a delay in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels In addition to the CPI, technical analysis plays a crucial role in forex trading. For GBP/USD, multiple rejections at resistance levels can be a key indicator. Resistance levels are price points at which a currency pair has difficulty rising above. If GBP/USD has faced multiple rejections at certain resistance levels, it indicates a strong selling pressure at those levels. Combining CPI and Technical Analysis When we combine the insights from the US CPI data with technical analysis, we get a more comprehensive view. For instance, if the US CPI is higher than expected and GBP/USD is experiencing rejections at resistance levels, it could signal a potential drop in the pair. This is because a strong US Dollar (due to high CPI) and technical selling pressure at resistance levels can jointly push GBP/USD lower.
Short
by globalsymmetrygroup
Gold Setup H1 Time Frame | CPI Data NewsGold Setup H1 Time Frame | CPI Data News Hey Traders ❗️ Welcome back hope you're doing well This is our 5 analysis on Gold Setup These idea not based on sell or buy Its based on #Levels and prediction On this Setup we catched more then 700 #pips As you guys seem #Gold currnet point at 2033.65 We draw the two circles at 2040 and draw the line at 2047.00 #CPI fundamental high news impact might be tried to break these resistance at 2040-2047 🔵 Overall we are on #Bearish Although gold overall view is at 2020-2019 then 2005 ❗️ So enjoy the Gold H1 setup with us 🙌 Cheers....
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by professionaltradersfx
GOLD| Time to evaluate a short entry!Analyzing XAU/USD, we can outline a detailed picture of the current situation and future prospects: Current Situation: Gold is struggling to make a decisive move in any specific direction mid-week. After rising above $2,030, gold lost momentum and retreated towards $2,020. The markets are awaiting the outcome of the 10-year US Treasury note auction. Macro Factors and Upcoming Events: A sparse macroeconomic calendar and upcoming top-tier events are keeping investors in cautious mode. Wall Street opened positively, attempting to reverse some of its recent losses, but trading remains uneventful. Influence of US Inflation Data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, set to be released on Thursday, could significantly impact gold prices. An annual CPI increase of 3.2% is expected, slightly higher than the previous 3.1%, but the core CPI increase is expected to decline. Market Expectations Regarding the Fed: Market participants are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting rates as early as March. This expectation is due to decreasing inflationary pressures, despite recent data showing a tight labor market. Recent Price Dynamics: Gold price (XAU/USD) saw a pause in its recovery on Wednesday, with investors focusing on US inflation data. The gold price recovery is expected to be short-lived due to investor confidence that the Fed will begin rate cuts starting in March. Technical Analysis: Gold price is aiming for stability above $2,030. It found intermediate support after correcting more than 3% from the high of December 28, 2023, around $2,090. Short-term demand for gold is no longer bullish, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,038 acting as a strong barrier. The broader trend remains bullish, with the 50- and 200-day EMAs sloping upwards. Further downside may occur if gold falls below the three-week low around $2,016. External Factors and Future Indications: The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 4.04% in anticipation of inflation data. The options market is showing signs of hedging against a negative outcome. Remarks by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, could further influence gold prices. Conclusion: Currently, gold prices are influenced by a combination of expectations about the Fed's interest rates, US inflation data, and market sentiment. The future direction of the price will likely be determined by upcoming inflation data and Fed policies. My personal expectation is the 62% Fibonacci level at 1966.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1