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CPI

Japanese yen steady ahead of Tokyo Core CPIThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.34, up 0.13%. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, considered the most important inflation indicator, on Tuesday. The index fell to 1.6% y/y in January, below expectations and the lowest rate since May 2022, but the market estimate for February stands at 2.5%. Inflation remains a key factor for the Bank of Japan as it mulls exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy. According to a report on the weekend, the government is considering announcing an official end to deflation. This would be a symbolic move but would likely be viewed by the markets as another signal that Tokyo is planning to remove negative interest rates in the next several months. After years of an ultra-accommodative policy, such a move would mark a sea-change for the Bank of Japan and would likely give a strong boost to the ailing Japanese currency. On Thursday, Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata said that the BoJ must overhaul is ultra-loose monetary policy, including an end to negative rates and removing bond yield control. Takata added that the BoJ was “seeing prospects of achieving our 2% inflation target”. The initial results of Japan’s annual wage negotiations will be released on March 15th, followed by the BoJ meeting on March 19. The wage talks are expected to result in workers receiving higher wages, which will likely result in higher inflation. The BoJ isn’t expected to make any policy changes at the March meeting, with April or June the likely dates for a major announcement. There is resistance at 150.90 at 151.69 150.05 and 149.26 are providing support
by OANDA
Gold royalty streamers oversoldAs a group, gold royalty streaming companies reacted negatively to the drop in gold price on February 13, 2024. This movement was triggered by US CPI for February printing slightly higher than expected by consensus, on the index and also MoM and YoY readings. Reaction was an immediate spike in TVC:DXY and commensurate selloff in FX_IDC:EURUSD . This dragged risk assets down, with equities markets getting hit. TVC:GOLD also lost more than 1% in lockstep reaction. The opportunity here is in the unwind of yesterday's outsized movement amongst the gold royalty streaming companies as a group. While some have performed better than others over the past year, they were all punished on this move. Typical drawdown was 10% on the day . For consideration: A) a short term buy of one of these names and holding to pre-CPI price level, or B) a longer term entry for those with a bullish view on gold and appetite for leveraged exposure and desire for dividend income.
TSX:SSLLong
by StrobeT
1
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Post-CPIToday's focus: US30 Pattern – Diagonal Support – 38,135, 37,135 Resistance – 38,810 Hi, traders; thanks for tuning in for today's update. Today, we are looking at the US30 on the daily chart. What a solid run we have seen till yesterday's CPI data. After US CPI came in hotter than expected, this shocked the market and led to heavy selling on stock indexes and risk currencies with a flight to safety (USD). We have broken down price action, price patterns and levels we are watching. Is this nothing more than a buying opportunity, or is this a potential momentum change? Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:US30
by Eightcap
5
🔥 XAU/USD - CPI is coming , Bull or Bear ? (READ THE CAPTION)Well, as you can see and we mentioned it in the previous analysis, today we will have CPI statistics! The predicted rate for CPI Y/Y is 2.9%, if the actual number is higher than the expected rate, we will witness the growth of the dollar index and consequently the heavy fall of gold! Note that this scenario is only valid if the actual rate is higher than the forecast! If this scenario is realized, its targets will be $2020, $2016, $2012, and $2007, respectively! What do you say ? Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
92
NZDUSD,🔴CPI is coming...🔴(Details on caption) Hello traders As you can see the market maker sell model is forming on the NZDUSD 15 minutes chart and now we are on the second distribution phase. We looking for a mid-term high form in the premium, then the price goes down for the sell-side liquidity as a final target. Simply put, the market structure shifted after touching the 4-hour bearish order block and we can expect the price to continue downtrend to sell-side liquidity. In this scenario, I don't want the to price reach 0.61400 or higher. 💥Please pay attention: Today we have the CPI today and High volatility is expected💥
Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
CPI Setup GOLD | Safe Zone CPI Setup GOLD | Safe Zone H1 Timeframe Current point 2027.50 - This Setup is not based on Sell or buy - According to last CPI Gold firstly moves 100+ pips in buy and then lay down - After Structuring the data we expected 100 pips buy then gold will fall - We set the safe zone if and if gold break the 2041 area then next move would be 2047 furthermore on the major support level if gold retest to break the 2012-2011-2010 next target would be 2000.00 - At a same time CPI , CORE INFLATION RATE , YOY AND MOM all are highly impact news - use proper lot size and risk management to secure profit because patience is a major key This Analysis is uploaded at 13/02/2024 Cheers ..
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by professionaltradersfx
1
🔥 EUR/USD - Time To Rise ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the EURUSD chart, we see that the price is trading in the supply range of 1.077, and I think that if the price can maintain the support of the range of 1.072 to 1.075, we will probably see the break of the resistance of 1.080 and rise to 1.088! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
⚡️Strifor || USDCAD-13/02/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment : Before the publication of inflation data in the US , the Canadian dollar also has the prospect of strengthening. Scenario №1 , which we gave in the previous trading idea for this instrument, is already active. However, given the economic calendar today, scenario №2 is also actively being considered. The target for the fall remained at the same level, namely 1.34000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-13/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Today is a very important day for the current week, since the publication of data on the US CPI is expected. Against this background, most majors retain their buy priority, and especially the Australian dollar continues to look up in the medium term. At the very moment of publication of CPI data, of course, anything can happen, but the main direction is still in favor of the buyer. In a more negative case, you need to count on scenario №2 , which can still be activated. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Oil to Clear 79.00 Big FigCurrently watching Crude Futs (NYMEX) to clear an Intermediate term High at 79.00 Big Fig. As my mentor says... "To & Through" Reasons: Crude Bullish Seasonally until march/April (Possible Quarterly Shift to downside) Commercials Net LONG DXY Bullish Failed to break lower on Daily (Indicating to me higher prices are in order) HTF MMSM, however Long in play to clear Buyside before reversing above highs & clearing distribution leg Sellside HTF (Daily): Expecting BSL to be ran and staying Bullish until trend broken & IOF Turns Bearish (Should happen above Highs) H4: Expecting a retracement into Internal Range Liquidity as outlined to target External Range Liquidity (Markets are booked like this, in a form of "Handshaking") LTF: Tuesday Feb 13th: US CPI Weds Feb 14th: US Crude Oil Inventories If Bias is correct and Weekly candle is due to expand to upside, I'd be looking for Tuesday to Form Weekly Low & take Longs Wednesday NY IF my model plays out.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Gremza_0x
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
XAUUSD is getting closer to $2060The price of gold is back in positive territory, heading to retest the two-week high of $2,056 set on Wednesday. The US Dollar is losing momentum amid a renewed appetite for risk, as markets applaud China's fiscal support while assessing the interest rate outlook of the United States Federal Reserve. China's Vice Finance Minister, Wang Dongwei, announced on Thursday that they "will appropriately increase investment under the central government budget," which "will help expand domestic demand." This comes after China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained at 50.8 in January, suggesting steady growth in the country's manufacturing sector. US Treasury bond yields declined on Wednesday, dragging the US Dollar down, following the ADP Employment Change data coming in below estimates at 107,000, and the Treasury Department's quarterly announcement that it would sell $121 billion in notes and bonds next week, up from $112 billion last quarter. However, a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed, following its two-day policy meeting, failed to offer any relief to US Treasury bond yields, while the US Dollar rose on the Fed's resistance to a rate cut in March. The US central bank extended the pause, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "based on the meeting today, I don't think it's likely we will have a rate cut in March." Currently, markets are pricing in a 35% probability that the Fed will cut rates in March, while for May, the odds stand at 92%. All eyes now turn toward Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data to confirm the resistance to a rate cut by the Fed until May. Ahead of that, traders will look to US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost (Q4), and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for fresh trading impetus in the gold price. The upcoming data could help reprice the market's expectations for the dovish Fed pivot. Gold, after breaking through a supply zone at the $2,033 level, continued its ascent to the liquidity zone at the $2,060 level. Now, I expect a bounce in the new demand zone before continuing the rally towards $2,060, a level increasingly in focus after the Fed. Greetings and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD gains ground as eurozone CPI dipsEUR/USD has edged higher in the European session and trading at 1.0890, up 0.18% on the day. The euro had a strong day on Thursday, gaining 0.50%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone, although the drop was very modest. CPI eased to 2.8% y/y in January, down from 2.9% in December and in line with the market estimate. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.4% in January, after a 0.2% gain in December, matching the market estimate. Food and energy prices decelerated in January and were the drivers behind the modest dip in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is a better gauge of inflation trends, dropped from 3.4% to 3.3% y/y but was above the market estimate of 3.2%. This could be a source of concern for policy makers at the European Central Bank, as the core rate remains well above the ECB's 2% target. There are concerns about inflation risks to the upside, with higher transport prices due to attacks on ships in the Red Sea and the Israel-Hamas war. The ECB remains cautious and ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the Middle East crisis was an "upside risk" to inflation. Lagarde said this week that the eurozone was "on a disinflationary trend" and that the ECB would be cutting rates. So in which direction is the ECB headed? Lagarde may be signalling that although she is on board for rate cuts, she remains concerned about inflation risks to the upside and may take her time before starting to chop rates. The ECB has kept rates unchanged at 4.0% for four straight months, and the markets are eyeing April or June as the dates for an initial rate cut. All eyes are on the US nonfarm payroll report later today. Earlier this week, the ADP employment report showed a drop in January, from a downwardly revised 158,000 to 107,000. The ADP report isn't considered a reliable guide for nonfarm payrolls, but the markets are expecting NFP to decline as well. The consensus estimate stands at 180,000, compared to 180,000 in December. If the release is wide of the estimate, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar. EUR/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0905. Above, there is resistance at 1.0938 There is support at 1.0810 and 1.0748
by OANDA
EUR/USD gives up gains after soft German CPIEUR/USD showed little movement earlier but that changed after German CPI was softer than expected. The euro gained 0.40% in the aftermath of the inflation report but has given back about half of those gains. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0857, up 0.11%. Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.9% y/y in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December and just below the market estimate of 3.0%. The reading, a preliminary estimate, was the lowest rate since June 2021. The drop was driven by a slowdown in goods inflation, with energy and food prices both decelerating. Services prices, however, rose slightly. Monthly, inflation ticked higher to 0.2%, compared to 0.1% in December and matching the market estimate of 0.2%. Inflation continues to fall in the eurozone's largest economy, as the ECB's steep hike in interest rates has dampened inflationary pressures. High interest rates have also cooled the German economy, as GDP declined by 0.2% q/q. This follows the Q3 reading of -0.3%, which means that the economy is technically in a recession with two straight quarters of negative growth. The eurozone managed to avoid a technical recession, but just barely. The economy posted zero growth in Q4 after third-quarter growth of -0.1%. The eurozone releases preliminary CPI on Thursday, with CPI expected to drop from 3.4% y/y to 3.2%. The Federal Reserve meets later today and a pause is a virtual certainty. This would mark the fourth straight time that the Fed has held rates at the target range of 5.25%-5.50%. Traders will be looking for clues about the Fed's rate path from the rate statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. If the statement or the press conference signals that the Fed is moving away from its "higher for longer" stance and is looking at rate cuts, the US dollar could react with volatility. EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0866 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0920 There is support at 1.0801 and 1.0747
by OANDA
XAUUSD|Breaking resistance zones and continuing growthHello friends, I hope you are doing well. Yesterday, in gold analysis, we expected the supply areas to prevent the gold price growth, as we saw downward reactions from these areas. But the selling pressure on gold increased and continued to move upwards. A new upward trend has come in the form of an upward channel. We had a resistance level in the one-hour timeframe, and now we see the one-hour candle closing above this level. This means that gold can see higher prices. My suggestion is to look for patterns to enter buy positions on reversals to support areas. My target for the short term is the supply area (2047-2050).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Golden_Star1994