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BTC - Macro View 🌐Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📈 Following the rejection of the 25,000 support, BTC experienced a significant 50% surge , forming another bullish impulse that confirms the ongoing upward trend. Consequently, we've identified and outlined a rising channel in orange. BTC is currently approaching the upper boundary of the orange channel, coinciding with the 40,000 resistance zone. 🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level. 📉 Meanwhile , considering BTC's proximity to a formidable resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 25,000 to 30,000 range. This scenario's confirmation would depend on lower timeframes, especially if a bearish reversal setup is triggered. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
4
SPX And The CPI WeekThe S&P500 index SPX surged by +1.31% last week to close above 4400 resistance level. The index is showing that there's more potential is yet to come, to hit 4520 next. The week ahead: The meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi is the highlight; there is also US CPI and retail sales, the former being a key input into the Fed's policy deliberations; China activity data will also be released. Sectors that may witness higher volatility are; Big techs, EVs, Oil & Gas and Semiconductors stocks.
SP:SPXLong
by AlyaAkram
AUD matching the Dollar in strength The AUD was exceptionally strong today ahead of the CPI release in the early hours of Oct 25th. It is expected to have slowed to 5.3% from 6.0% in Q2 leading the futures marked to price in a 75% chance the RBA will hold rates at the Nov 7th meeting. Technically however there was a different pictures today, with the Pound and Euro falling 200 pips in the session on the back of a much stronger looking AUD than the macro would have you believe. As London comes to a close, I'm watching to see if 0.63500 will hold as support for price to build through New York and Asia. Having broken out of a 2 day range (0.63250) on Monday I'm looking to see if price can continue it's trajectory and start to turn around the Daily chart which has been bouncing on the lows since the start of the month.
Long
by RuckSack
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: still shot💬 Description: And shorts of gold are still being considered. The approach to 1885 creates a promising short trade. However, today we expect inflation data, which may make some adjustments. In this case, one should not be afraid to re-enter, or one can consider entering using pending sell orders, placing them below and above the market price before the release of US CPI . The potential of the deal is good, and we expect a fall towards the level of 1830 and below. 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🛢IEA Monthly Report 🇪🇺ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting 🛢OPEC Monthly Report 🇺🇸Initial Jobless Claims 🇺🇸CPI 🛢Crude Oil Inventories 🇺🇸WASDE Report 🌎IMF Meetings ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TradePlus-Fx
9
Fools Rushing In or Angels' Crystal Ball? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/12 Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation - reiterated by this morning's CPI numbers, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Is this Fools rushing in where Angels fear to tread or retail investors having some crystal ball into the future that institutions don't have access to? Only time can tell. However, our AI-driven models (since 2018 - not a "me too AI" bandwagon hopper) have negated the bearish bias yesterday, Tue. 10/10, based on the last two sessions' price action and in line with what we have been publishing for the last week or so: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4401, 4388, 4380, 4347, or 4337 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4398, 4368, 4355, 4343, or 4334 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4385 or 4376, and explicit short exits on a break above 4359 or 4371. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:32am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
AUD/USD extends losses, CPI loomsThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6405, down 0.28%. Australia releases the CPI report on Wednesday. In July, CPI eased to 4.9%, beating expectations and dropping to the lowest inflation rate since February 2022. CPI is expected to rise to 5.2% in August. Inflation remains more than double the 2% target, and the core rate is also high, with the trimmed mean dropping from 6.0% to 5.6% in August. The RBA has raised rates to 4.1%, the highest level since 2012. Have interest rates peaked? That is the thousand-dollar question. The futures markets have priced in a final rate hike before the end of the year at 35%, as investors are betting the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely done with rate tightening. The Australian economy has cooled off as a result of the RBA's tightening, and the slowdown in China could tip the economy into a recession if rates were to move higher. The central bank is understandably more hawkish, as policy makers don't want to close the door on further tightening with inflation still well above the target. The new RBA Governor, Michelle Bullock, has warned that the door remains open to further rate hikes and said that upcoming decisions will be based on key data. The RBA minutes from the September meeting indicated that members considered a rate hike, but in the end, opted to pause rates. In the US, Consumer Board (CB) Consumer Confidence slipped to 103.0 in August, down sharply from a revised July read of 108.7 and shy of the market consensus of 105.5. This marked a 4-month low. Consumers noted concern over rising gasoline prices and high interest rates and the percentage of consumers who expect a recession rose in September, according to the CB. This does not bode well for consumer spending, a key driver of US growth. AUD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.6380. The next support line is 0.6320 There is resistance at 0.6446 and 0.6506
by OANDA
1
25/09/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $27490.1 Last weeks low: $26897.7 Midpoint: $26305.4 Despite several big news events relating to the FED funds rate, CPI & PPI, we saw a much tighter range last week than the week previously. We're already trading lower than last weeks low and confirmed as resistance with a bearish retest. It is interesting that the news events that used to give us such volatility are now barely noticeable on the chart at all. This leads me to believe we're in the later stages of the bear market, where the speculative investors traders are no longer interested, the market makers are not interested in trading news events that are risky and therefore we have almost a stalemate in price action. When an asset like BTC fails to have buy side pressure/volume then price will naturally creep lower to find buyers, this is basic supply and demand and the reason for my prediction that we'll see a retest of that yearly open price around 19k in my opinion. By that point smart money will look to catapult BTC back towards ATH over the next couple of years. Survive the next 6-9 months and the patient shall be rewarded, we see it with every cycle.
by ProR35
CPI 13/09/23 CORE CPI (YoY): PREVIOUS: 4.7% FORECAST: 4.3% In the last 5 months of core cpi results, 3/5 actuals have equalled forecasts, with the last 2 months both coming in below forecast. This month is predicted to have the biggest percentage drop out of those previous months. CPI (YoY): PREVIOUS: 3.2% FORECAST:3.6% When looking at the CPI numbers in the same previous 5 months, 5/5 results have come in lower than forecast, could this be 6 in a row? This month we have conflicting forecasts with core CPI going up, but CPI dropping at the same time. With price hovering around the previous Higher Low, I'm interested to see if any event news volatility could cause a print of a lower low on the 1D timeline for the first time this year. Even if it's just a wick and not a full close on the daily, this could confirm a new HTF bearish bias. Added confluence for this would be the loss of the bullish trendline in red. Weeks of consolidation under that area after a bearish retest plus all 3 EMA's suggesting downtrend, Bitcoin has a lot of work to do. The large FVG needs filling at some point, and it looks to be on its way there currently. I'm always cautious going into these big news events, the first move is usually wrong so remember that.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ProR35
2
✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 20, 2023Key events: UK - CPI (YoY) (Aug) USA - Crude Oil Inventories USA - FOMC Economic Projections USA - FOMC Statement USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision USA - FOMC Press Conference Mixed Market Signals: US Stock Futures Stabilize, Forex Rates Range-Bound, Gold Edges Up Slightly We observe a blend of mixed signals across various asset classes. Here's a brief overview: US Stock Futures Stabilize: US stock futures have shown signs of stabilization after recent volatility. While they experienced fluctuations, they are currently exhibiting a more balanced and steady pattern. This suggests that investors may be finding some stability in the equity markets. Forex Rates Range-Bound: Foreign exchange (forex) rates are trading within relatively narrow ranges. Major currency pairs are not displaying significant movements, indicating a state of consolidation and a lack of clear directional bias. Market participants may be awaiting key economic events and data releases for potential catalysts. Gold Edges Up Slightly: Gold prices have seen a slight uptick. The precious metal has inched higher, albeit modestly, reflecting a degree of investor interest in safe-haven assets. Gold often attracts buyers during uncertain or turbulent market conditions as a hedge against risk. Let's analyze together each point of this article During the evening trading session on Tuesday, US stock futures displayed limited movement, mirroring a downward trend in major benchmark indices as bond yields continued to climb in anticipation of the impending interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Dow Jones Futures, S&P 500 Futures, and Nasdaq 100 Futures all exhibited marginal fluctuations, remaining within a narrow 0.1% trading range. NASDAQ Index daily chart SPX Index daily chart DJI Index daily chart As we draw closer to the upcoming policy announcements from the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for later this week, major foreign exchange rates are showing limited trading ranges. This subdued trading environment comes on the heels of a substantial sell-off that occurred at the end of the previous week, triggered by developments in the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest policy meeting. Notably, the euro demonstrated signs of a modest recovery yesterday, with its value surging to an intraday high of 1.07199. This rebound allowed the euro to surpass the low it had touched at the conclusion of the previous week, which had been at 1.0632. EUR/USD daily chart The resurgence of the euro yesterday can largely be attributed to a noteworthy report from Reuters, which cited sources within the European Central Bank (ECB). The report, titled "ECB to Address Excess Liquidity in Next Phase of Inflation Combat," played a pivotal role in boosting the euro's performance. The minutes released from the September meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) revealed the possibility of further tightening measures if inflation continues to persist. Additionally, market attention was focused on China's central bank (PBOC), which was set to announce its interest rate decision later in the day, potentially impacting the Australian Dollar. In another part of the forex market, the USD/JPY pair saw a notable surge, reaching a peak of 147.99. This marked fresh highs for the year 2023 and was supported by the ongoing rise in US bond yields. USD/JPY daily chart In the previous trading session, the US Dollar closed at 147.60 Japanese Yen, while Japan's 10-year JGB yield increased by 1 basis point, reaching 0.71%. Against the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), the Greenback experienced a decline, slipping from 1.3485 to 1.3445. This marked the Canadian Dollar's strongest performance in six weeks, buoyed by Canada's annual inflation data hitting 4%, surpassing the anticipated 3.8%. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), which measures the US Dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, saw a slight drop from 105.35 to 105.15. Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve maintaining its current interest rates at the upcoming meeting. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart In additional economic developments from the previous day, US Housing Starts for August disappointed by coming in at 1.28 million units, falling short of expectations. This figure represented the lowest reading since June 2020. Conversely, Building Permits for August showed strength, reaching 1.54 million units, surpassing the previous figure of 1.44 million, and beating estimates set at 1.44 million. Regarding the precious metals market, the most-active futures contract for gold on New York's Comex, specifically the December contract, settled at $1953.70 per ounce. However, it recorded a modest gain of just 30 cents for the day. XAU/USD daily chart The 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering around the highs observed in August, suggesting the possibility of establishing new cycle highs. Gold traders are closely monitoring these developments, with their initial focus centered on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and subsequently shifting to the policy decisions of the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Should optimism rise that most advanced economies have completed their interest rate hikes, it could provide a favorable backdrop for gold. However, achieving such optimism may prove challenging, given that the Fed and BOE might not indicate the conclusion of their rate hikes just yet. If concerns about economic slowdowns, often referred to as "hard landings," start to trouble Wall Street, gold could attract safe-haven flows despite some underlying dollar strength. Global markets are adapting to a new perspective on rate hikes, triggered by the European Central Bank's decision to raise rates to a record high of 4% on Thursday, even as it suggested that this hike might be its final move in the near term. While the Fed's policymakers are not expected to raise rates at their upcoming meeting on September 20, this follows a series of 11 hikes that added 5.25 percentage points to the base rate. In February 2022, the rate stood at just 0.25%. Chairman Jerome Powell's statements during his news conference on Wednesday will be closely analyzed for insights into the Fed's outlook for the remainder of the year, especially with two more policy meetings scheduled for November and December. Nonetheless, with a Fed rate hike seemingly on hold for now, some dollar investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach, while others are capitalizing on the greenback's recent eight-week rally. In August, US consumer prices experienced their second consecutive monthly increase, resulting in a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7%, up from 3.2% in July. This rise was primarily attributed to surging gasoline prices, accounting for over half of the overall increase. Such a phenomenon could exert renewed pressure on those at the Fed who are committed to combating inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely followed economic indicator in the United States that measures changes in the average price level of a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households. It is a key gauge of inflation and provides valuable insights into the cost of living for the average American consumer. The CPI is released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on a monthly basis and is considered one of the most important economic indicators. The CPI calculation involves tracking the prices of thousands of items across various categories, such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and medical care. These items are grouped into different expenditure categories, and their prices are weighted based on the average spending habits of urban consumers. The index is then calculated by comparing the current prices of these items to a base period's prices, usually set at 100. Here are some key points about the US Consumer Price Index (CPI): Inflation Measurement: The CPI is primarily used to measure inflation, which is the rate at which the general price level of goods and services rises over time. It helps policymakers, economists, and investors assess the impact of price changes on purchasing power and economic stability. Components: The CPI is divided into two main components: the "core" CPI and the "headline" CPI. The core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, as they can experience significant short-term fluctuations. The headline CPI includes all items, providing a broader view of price movements. Base Year: The CPI is reported relative to a base year, which is assigned a value of 100. Changes in the index represent the percentage change in prices relative to the base year. For example, if the CPI is 110, it indicates a 10% increase in prices since the base year. Monthly Release: The BLS releases the CPI data on a monthly basis, typically around the middle of each month, with a one-month lag. This allows for the timely assessment of inflation trends. Uses: The CPI is used for various purposes, including adjusting Social Security benefits, indexing pensions, calculating cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs), and helping businesses adjust prices and wages to account for inflation. Economic Indicator: Economists and policymakers closely monitor CPI data to make informed decisions about monetary policy, interest rates, and economic stimulus. High inflation can erode purchasing power and lead to changes in central bank policy. Basket of Goods: The CPI's "basket of goods" is periodically updated to reflect changes in consumer preferences and spending habits. This ensures that the index remains relevant and accurate. Core and Headline CPI: The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is often used to assess underlying inflation trends. The headline CPI, including all items, provides a more comprehensive view of overall inflation. In summary, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator that tracks changes in the average price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. It helps gauge inflation, informs policy decisions, and has significant implications for individuals, businesses, and the broader economy. ---- The central bank maintains its targeted inflation rate at a maximum of 2% per year and has committed to achieving this objective through additional interest rate hikes if they are deemed necessary. The key areas of focus will be the Federal Reserve's (Fed) economic projections and the Fed Funds rate forecasts. Of particular significance will be the Fed's "dot plot," which discloses the individual perspectives of Fed members regarding the future path of interest rates. Until this information is released, we can expect foreign exchange markets to remain within their recent trading ranges, albeit amid somewhat turbulent conditions.
by FOREXN1
10
Triple Witching Signals Market Turning PointCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last Friday was the infamous “Triple Witching Day”, where US stock index futures, stock index options, and single-stock options contracts all expired on the same trading day. These phenomena happen only four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. In 2023, Triple Witching occurs on March 17th, June 16th, September 15th, and December 15th. In folklore, the witching hour is a supernatural time of day when evil things may happen. Derivatives traders use this term to magnify the significance of options expiration. Hence the “Triple Witching Day”, and “Triple Witching Hour”, the last hour of trading on that day. Understanding Triple Witching A common expiration date for all three types of equities derivatives could cause increased trading volume and unusual price movements in both the derivatives contracts and the underlying equity assets. Most traders seeking derivatives exposure are either hedgers or speculators. Speculators must offset their open positions prior to the end of triple witching hour. Hedgers, on the other hand, may want to maintain the hedging of their stock portfolio. They could close the existing futures or options positions and roll them out to the next contracts. Some traders opened the contracts with the intention of buying the underlying securities. With any deliverable contract, the seller must deliver the underlying securities to the buyer when the futures contract expires, or if the options are exercised. Triple witching days could generate escalated trading activity and volatility. Although much of the trading during triple witching is related to the squaring of positions, the surge in trading also drives price inefficiencies, which draws short-term arbitrageurs. Traders with large short gamma positions are particularly exposed to price movements leading up to expiration. Arbitrageurs try to take advantage of such abnormal price action. Triple Witching Day on Friday September 15th US stocks fell last Friday as investors wrapped up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate-setting meeting on September 19th-20th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 288.87 points, or -0.83%, to 34,618.24. At its lows, the index completely eliminated Thursday’s 332-point rally. The S&P 500 was lower by 1.22% to 4,450.32. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.56% to 13,708.33. In equity derivative market, I found that the high-volume day for CME E-Mini S&P 500 options on futures occurred on Thursday September 14th, the day before Triple Witching. The E-Mini S&P options had a daily volume between 100K and 200K contracts from August to Mid-September. On September 14th, trade volume shot up 92% from the prior trading day to 441,871, and open interest gained 157,913 contracts to 2,459,599. Both trade volume and open interest fell back to normal levels on the next day. This is evidence that traders planned their trades ahead of Triple Witching, so that they could avoid being squeezed on the last trading day and hours. Triple Witching and Market Turning Points Upon further review of the S&P price data, I found that Triple Witching Days in the past two years usually signaled a change in market directions. Following each of the seven such days under examination, the S&P moved up four times and moved down three times. • 12/17/2021: Closed at 4,620. By March, it was 455 points lower, or -9.8% (Down) • 03/18/2022: Closed at 4,463. It declined by 788 points or -17.7% by June (Down) • 06/17/2022: Closed at 3,675. By August, it rose to 4,314, up 639 or +17.4% (Up) • 09/16/2022: Closed at 3,873. It fell to 3,587 by October, down 286 or -7.4% (Down) • 12/16/2022: Closed at 3,852. By February, it reached 4,193, up 341 or +8.8% (Up) • 03/17/2023: Closed at 3,917. In the next 3 months, it rose 606 points, +15.5% (Up) • 06/17/2023: Closed at 4,523. It moved up nearly 100 points, or 2.1% by August (Up) A move by 7-18% in a short time span of three months is quite significant, statistically. The difficulty is to predict which way the S&P goes next, on the day of Triple Witching. The S&P 500: From now till the next Triple Witching Day On September 15th, the S&P 500 closed at 4,450. Where will the S&P be by December 15th, the next Triple Witching Day? One hint could be found in the futures market. The December 2023 contract of E-Mini S&P 500 futures (ESU3) was settled at 4,498, down 4.8% from 4,675 reached on July 27th. March 2024 contract (ESH4) was settled at 4,549, down 4.0% from its recent high. Our analysis from the last section shows that from one Triple Witching Day to the next, the S&P is more likely to make a big move than moving sideways. The December futures price (4,498) is just 1.1% above the cash index (4,450). Would there be a misprice? If the market follows similar patterns from the past two years, we could expect the S&P to go up to 4,800 (+8%), or down to 4,100 (-8%) by December. In my opinion, the S&P faces significant headwind, after running up 20% from its October low. Here are the top-3 that come to mind: • US CPI has rebounded, from 3.0% in June, to 3.2% in July, and 3.7% in August. The government narrative of inflation getting under control is starting to unravel. • The rise in energy and shelter cost will spill over to household cost-of-living and business operating cost. On the one hand, it raises the final price of good and service; on the other, it reduces consumer dispensable income available for other purchases. • According to the Fed, consumer credit card debt hit $1 trillion in Q2. Total student loans outstanding reached $1.78 trillion in Q1. High credit card interest rates and the resumption of student loan repayments will squeeze consumer budget. The Fed would face a difficult decision this week as it debates whether to raise interest rate or pause for the time being. In my view, the Fed is not done with its monetary tightening policy. Even if it holds rate unchanged for now, it could still raise it again in November or December meeting. The overheated inflation data just makes the Fed unlikely to call it a victory after 11 rate hikes. The remaining Fed meetings in 2023, September 20th, November 1st, and December 13th, all holding before the December Triple Witch Day. If the Fed turns out to be less accommodating than the market expects, the S&P could go further down. Each E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract is notional on $50 times the index. At Friday closing price of 4,498, one December contract is valued at $224,900. When the index moves 1 point, the futures account would gain or lose $50. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $11,200. Alternatively, investors could consider the Micro S&P 500 ( FWB:MES ). It is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract and requires a margin of $1,120. When the index moves 1 point, the futures account would gain or lose $5. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2