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CPI

EURUSD before CPISome of the most important news for the market at the moment will be published today. Inflation data in the USA will be announced at 15:30 Bulgarian time. Regardless of the values, larger fluctuations are expected. Therefore, before important news, it is recommended to reduce the risk of active positions and avoid new trades. EURUSD continues its uptrend and 1.1080 is getting closer. Corrections and stop hunting below the previous bottom are entirely possible. We will look for new entries after the news!
by ForexTrendline
2
Nasdaq: Price levels and price pattern analysis Today's focus: Nasdaq /NDX100 Pattern – Ascending Triangle Possible targets – 15,600, 16,500 Support – 15,000 Resistance – 15,220, 15,250 Today we are looking at the Nasdaq/NDX100 as price sits in a continuation pattern just below key resistance. This is an interesting set-up as we have key US inflation data coming out today, and interest rates remain a hottish topic. We have broken down the price action and pattern in today’s video and how this connects to the CPI data. There’s no guarantee that a drop will drive buyers onward, but it could also be a driver that continues buyer momentum and could set up a new test and break of the pattern. We will be watching the core figure as it’s been the most stubborn of the three. Y/Y is expected to drop to 3.1% and the Core to 0.3%. The CPI data is due at 8:30 am ET / 10:30 pm AEST. Have a great day and good trading.
N
by Eightcap
Bitcoin - How to trade the CPI AnnouncementTLDR: I went over the price action of the NY session of every CPI announcement in 2023 and these are the lessons they all have in common: 1. TAKE PROFIT! If your position is in profit, take it, because PA can change on a dime. 2. The first move is the false move. Dump & Pump or Pump and Dump. 3. Sell the range high, buy the range low. 4. Core CPI has more effect on the market than the general CPI number. 5. Generally, if you don’t already have a solid position, it is best to be flat before the announcement 6. If you are not sure about what to do, don't do anything, wait. 7. I know you are busy, but at least take the time to look at each month’s chart (below). Trading Plan for July’s CPI announcement: • According to Trading Economics, the expectations for this month’s announcement are: 1. Inflation Rate YoY to drop from 4% to 3.1% - 3.2% 2. Core Inflation Rate YoY to drop from 5.3% to 5%. • If inflation, especially Core CPI drops but not as much as expected. I will be looking for a dump & pump. Accordingly, I will buy at the range low or lower and sell above the range high. • If inflation numbers are better than expected, I will expect a pump and dump. In this case, I will take profit above the range high at 300$ intervals (I already have a long trade running). In this eventuality, I will decide on the spot, if and when to place a short trade. • Long Invalidation: below 28.5K • Short invalidation: above 32. K Research: January 2023: Slightly Better than Expectations Thursday January 12 2023 Conclusions: 1. If the results are better than expected, we can expect price to increase. 2. Be careful of stop hunts. Wait for the stop hunt before you place a long trade. 3. Take profit if price moves sharply up. 4. Dump & Pump. February 2023: Slightly worse than Expectations. Conclusions: 1. If the overall inflation trend is down, expect a positive effect on price. 2. Don’t be too impressed by the immediate reaction to the announcement. 3. If you caught a big move, take profit. 4. Dump & Pump. March 2023: Slightly better than expectations. Conclusions: 1. If you caught a big move, take profit! 2. If price breaks above the resistance by a wide margin, consider a short trade. 3. Pump & Dump. April 2023: Generally, Inflation numbers were better than expected. However, Core CPI was slightly worse than expectations. Conclusions: 1. Core CPI has a more noticeable effect on PA. 2. If price moves your way, long or short, take profit. 3. NY dumps, Asia pumps. 4. Pump & Dump May 2023: Overall, the results were in line with expectations. Conclusions: 1. TP! TP! TP! TAKE PROFIT! 2. Pump and dump. 3. When the results are in line with expectations, volatility increases (this is just a notion, at this stage, but keep it in the back of your head. 4. Sell the range high, buy the range low. June 2023: Inflation numbers were better than expected (including Core CPI). Conclusions: 1. TP. 2. Sometimes the best strategy is to sit on your hands. This session was for advanced traders. 3. Wait at the edges of the range for opportunities. NFA. what do you think? Please share in the comments. Best Wishes.
by NewThoughtCrypto
Gold: Price levels and price analysis Gold: Price levels and price analysis Today's focus: Gold Pattern – Trend break Possible targets - 1965 Support – 1905 Resistance – 1932.80 As the USD continues its decline since last Friday’s employment data, our attention has turned to Gold as buyers continue to hold outside the downtrend. Price still sits in a range, but for now, the momentum looks to be with buyers as they continue to push a higher move so far today. This week’s CPI and PPI data will be a factor, but if we see it drop this could be the factor that gets gold buyers moving if the USD decline accelerates. For us, the core figure will be the important one as it’s been the most stubborn. If we see the core and m/m and y/y drop this week, could this be enough to see gold its range and get a more prolonged up trend back in play? Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by Eightcap
30Y: Housing Cost Jumps Amid Falling Headline InflationCBOT: 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ), Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) As a result of runaway inflation and rising interest rates, US home buyers are confronted by high home prices, high down payments, and high monthly mortgage payments. A sneak peek into official housing market data between 2021 and 2023: • Median sales price of houses sold in the US ( FRED:MSPUS ) was $436,800 in the first quarter of 2023, per Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED); • The median home price was $433,100 in Q1 2022 and $369,800 in Q1 2021. In the span of merely two years, home price jumped 18.1%; • Thirty-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 6.81% on July 6th ( FRED:MORTGAGE30US ); • The same mortgage was quoted at 5.30% a year ago and only 2.90% in July 2021. A typical family of four living in the State of Illinois earned a median income of $113,649 in 2022, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s survey data. The example cited below illustrates the dramatic rise in housing cost from a family perspective: • If a 30-year-fixed mortgage is taken with a 20% down payment, the upfront cost is $87,360 (20% of FRED:MSPUS at $436,800), which is up $13,400 or 18.1% from two years ago; • Assuming the family’s take-home pay is 75% of gross income, their after-tax income would be $85,237 per year, or $7,103 per month; • Down payment already exceeded annual income. Adding in closing fees, moving cost, appliances and new furniture, upfront home investment could be well over $100K; • Using a mortgage calculator, we find that monthly mortgage payments were $1,724 if the home was bought two years ago; this equates to 24.3% of take-home pay; • New monthly payments would be $2,682, up sharply by 55.6%; mortgage expense now takes up 40.3% of the family’s after-tax income! This shows that an average US family these days can’t afford a median-price new home. A Tale of Two Cities The sharp increase in housing cost flies in the face of official US inflation data. June CPI report will be released on Wednesday. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0% from 4.0% and core CPI to be lowered to 5.0% from 5.3% in May. The subset of inflation data shows Shelter cost growing at 8.0% annual rate in May. This doubles the headline CPI but is still a vast understatement for the soaring housing cost. So, where is the disconnection? Here is my theory. High mortgage rates have a bigger impact on mortgage payments than home price appreciation. Based on my calculation, each 1% increase in interest rate would translate into 9% more in monthly mortgage payments. In our example, mortgage rate grew about 4% from 2021 to 2023, and a mortgage is taken on a home priced at 18% higher. The resulting monthly payments jumped 55.6%. The compounding effect of higher prices and higher rates is fatal. I do not foresee either dropping in a meaningful way by next year. Therefore, do not expect the lower inflation to provide immediate relief to home buyers. Housing Market is not likely to crash US new home sales ( ECONOMICS:USNHS ) peaked at 1 million units in October 2021. Since then, it has nosedived and almost cut in half to 550K units by September 2022. Existing home sales ( ECONOMICS:USEHS ) followed a similar trend. It topped out at 6.6 million units in August 2020, and dropped to 4.0 million units in January 2023. Despite the hurdles facing home buyers, the US housing market appears to have recovered. New home sales reached 763K units in May, up nearly 12% from April. Existing home sales were 4.3 million units, up 300K from the beginning of the year. How could the housing market hold up? Isn’t homeownership already beyond reach? According to the National Association of Realtors, 65.5% of US families are homeowners. We could say that those with a “lock-in” rate are insulated from rising housing costs. Homeowners are “trapped” in their home in a rising interest rate environment. If they sell their houses and buy new ones, they will forfeit their 3% mortgage. This explains why existing home sales recovers at a much slower pace than new home sales. Low inventory and fewer sellers relative to buyers, together keep the housing market going strong. Prospective home buyers are not so lucky. But they have options. First is to lower their expectation and buy a smaller home; Second is to downgrade from single family home to townhouse or condominium. Finally, postpone home purchases and continue to rent. Several Economists predicting a housing market crash as big as the 2008 Subprime crisis. I think the Big Shorts would be disappointed this time. Prior to 2008, up to one third of homeowners had adjustable-rate mortgages. They survived rate-reset only because their house value went up. When it didn’t, they couldn’t refinance and defaulted on their loan. These days, adjustable-rate accounts for just 5% of all mortgages. The housing market is healthier now. FRED data shows the mortgage delinquency rate at 1.73% in Q1 2023, and the rate has been declining consistently for seven quarters. How Is This Relevant for Trading? I hold the view that the US housing market is very resilient. As long as the job market does not deteriorate, it could weather significant challenges including higher interest rates, indicating that the demand for home mortgages would stay strong. Whether you buy a new home or an existing one, a single-family home, a townhouse, a condo, or a trailer home, chances are you need a mortgage. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the most popular type of home loans in the US. Hence, this is where we should find solutions to manage interest rate risk. Interest rate data shows that the 30-year fixed rate is not closely correlated to the Fed’s interest rate decisions. In the past 12 months, the Fed Funds rate gained 130%, while the 30-year Fixed only moved up 28%. Since last November, the Fed raised interest rates five times, but the 30-year Fixed stayed relatively unchanged. My theory is that the decline in home sales countered the effect of rising funding cost, putting the mortgage rates in sideway moves. Now that the housing market recovers, 30-year Fixed could be on the way up. The July FOMC meeting could provide a boost if the Fed raises 25 bp as the market predicts. There is no liquid financial instrument on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage. However, it is closely correlated to the 30-year Treasury yield. The mortgage rate currently is priced at 2.8% above the Treasury yield. The spread appears to be stable over time. If we are bullish on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, we could consider the following: One, to set up a short position on CBOT Treasury Bond Futures ( $ZB ). Remember that bond price and yield are inversely related. Rising yield would cause the bond to lose value. Each Treasury Bond futures contract has a face value of $100,000. The price quotation is based on $100 par value. The minimum tick is 1/32 of one point (0.03125), or 1,000/32 = $31.25. SEP contract (ZBU3) is quoted $123 and 22/32 on Monday July 10th. Two, to set up a long position on CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures ( $30Y ). On July 10th, the August contract is quoted 4.029%. Each 30Y contract has a notional value of interest rate times 1000 index points. A move by a minimum tick of 0.001 index point would result in a gain or loss of $1 per contract. What’s the difference between these two? Treasury bond futures are very liquid. It traded 387,170 contracts and had an Open Interest of 1.25 million on July 7th. Micro Yield Futures are more intuitive. If yield goes up, futures price goes up too. The contract is catered to individual investors. Its margin requirement is $290, compared to $4,200 for the bond futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
BTC CPI data tradeGood evening, we have a busy week ahead and we start tomorrow, Tuesday, with the CPI data. Tomorrow at 2:30pm we have the release of the US CPI (Consumer Price Index), which reflects the rate of inflation. Honestly, I expect further downside ahead of this release. The current CPI forecast looks really bullish, which means that the price could rise if the forecast is met. Right now we are trading at a resistance level, which could potentially push us further down. But after that, euphoria could set in and push the price back up. The expectations and forecasts for the CPI are as follows: CPI Year-on-Year (YoY): 4.1% (previous reading: 4.9%). CPI month-on-month (MoM): 0.2% (previous value: 0.4%) Core CPI month-on-month (MoM): 0.4% (previous value: 0.4%) The CPI is expected to register a year-on-year decline to 4.1%. The month-on-month CPI is also expected to be lower than before, with an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI, on the other hand, is expected to hold steady at 0.4% month-on-month. My trade 1.Long @ 25320 1/4 2. long @ 25025 3/4 1st TP "38 Fib" = 25471 (30% of position + SL break even) 2nd TP "ML" = 25603 (20% of position + SL on TP 1) 3. TP "MH" = 26200 (50% of the position) SL = 24662 R&V = 3.6 Will set my trade setup only tomorrow at 10am (night might bring volatility)
Long
by Moritz2704
1
USDJPY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the USDJPY currency pair for a potential buying opportunity around the 139.700 zone. After trading in a downtrend, USDJPY has recently broken out and is currently in a correction phase approaching the retrace zone near the 139.700 support and resistance area. A key factor to consider today is the US monetary policy, specifically the Federal Reserve's interest rate release. If the statement reflects a more hawkish stance than expected, signaling potential future interest rate hikes, it could provide additional confirmation for a USDJPY buy trade. As traders, it is important to conduct thorough analysis, considering technical indicators, price charts, and patterns. Additionally, monitoring fundamental factors such as central bank decisions and economic data releases can provide valuable insights. It's crucial to stay informed about market sentiment and overall market conditions. Remember that trading involves risks, and it is advisable to have a well-defined trading plan, including risk management strategies, in place. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
20
Gold muted awaits the FOMC Monetary PolicyMay’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) came in lower than expected, showing that inflation may be cooling off. The gold price used to surge to $1,970, and then the traders liquidated their position. The gold price dropped below $1,950 since the market awaits the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Investors will look for clues on the Fed's interest rate hikes and monetary tightening plans. If the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening path, it could boost the dollar and bond yields, weighing on gold. Gold prices fell after the lower-than-expected CPI print but remain supported by longer-term inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week, the Fed’s tone, signals and the coming up U.S. data will be necessary for determining gold's next move.
TVC:GOLD
by ATFX_Global
GBPUSD Approaching the weekly trend ahead of CPI data.Dear Traders, I'd like to bring your attention to the current market conditions of GBPUSD. It is currently experiencing a downtrend but is undergoing a correction phase. The price is approaching a significant resistance zone at 1.26100, which coincides with the major trend. This area is worth monitoring closely. In addition, it's crucial to take into account the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release this week. This economic indicator is expected to have a substantial impact on the strength of the US dollar and may provide insights into the future actions of Fed Chair Powell. If the CPI figures are higher than anticipated, it suggests that the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates, which could strengthen the dollar further. On the other hand, if the CPI falls below expectations, it is more likely that the Fed will postpone any rate hikes in their next monetary policy decision. Remember to prioritize risk management and trade with caution. Best regards, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
43
Celebrating the Lowest High Inflation?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market's radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 06/13: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4367, 4348, 4340, 4311, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4364, 4354, 4334, 4308, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4345 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4357 or 4326. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:26am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing. It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation. If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday. Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
gold will make a pattern decline on two formation which will#XAUUSD pair have made a retest back to 1965 today after our selling target have hit, the pair have two circulation but the both have decline so now we wait for a clear wave pattern to know if gold will drop back below 1952 again but firstly if gold hit the 1970 limit in H3 then a possible rise will occur above 1979 which can hold on break more bullish but if the price decline then we expect the 1952 limit before a pull back below 1941 limit but today we expect the CPI to be higher than expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by berserkafx