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usdcad trade idea I bias down sideThe Canadian dollar has managed to maintain strength against the USD in a week with little Canadian specific economic data. Last week’s Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement saw Governor Macklem leave the door open to additional hikes should incoming data necessitate. Subsequently, the local balance of trade and labor reports outlined the economies resilience and sustained upside pressures on inflation from an average earnings lens. Higher crude oil prices are also favorable for the CAD while supplementing the inflation narrative that could prompt the aforementioned hike early next year. This is reflected in BoC interest rate expectations (refer to table below) which have been ‘hawkishly’ re-priced to suggest a 10bps peak from 5bps just last week. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
Short
by Ttrade-With-Logic
2
cpi plan on goldGold prices appear to be increasingly struggling to break above the key falling trendline from May on the daily chart below. Last week, XAU/USD climbed to the former rising trendline from October after breaking below it, failing to push back above the line. This created a key juncture of resistance that combined both trendlines. Since then, prices have aimed slightly lower, reinforcing the falling trendline. From here, immediate support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1903.46, followed by the August swing lower at 1884.89. Breaking above the trendline could open the door to a broader reversal, exposing the 23.6% level at 1971.63.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ttrade-With-Logic
NQ1! 9/10/23 Supply and Demand LevelsLink to chart: www.tradingview.com Heavy news this upcoming week and the rollover for Futures contracts on 9/13. CPI falls on 9/13 as well, so prepare your charts accordingly! Given the rate we are at for inflation and the housing market supply/demand, I am preparing for either a push to break this wall of resistance we have been facing the past few weeks (pink line) or a break of the blue trend line below. EOW Targets: BULLS 15730-830 or 16000 BEARS 14800 or 14990-15100 If you zoom out and look at the HTF (4HR), we have a possible head and shoulder from June to today. We also see constant support off the blue trendline for that continuation to the upside to reach the head. It's a waiting game, let's be patient to find out what happens this week!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
2
US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders, last week the US500 did a correction as expected. Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High) Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data. On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2% What is the core CPI? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values. What is the PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Wish you all good trades! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightlyThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don't believe we're at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe's final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA "may still need to raise rates again", adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn't anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025. The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337
by OANDA
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
EUR/USD eyes German, Eurozone CPI reportThe euro's mini-rally has run out of steam. EUR/USD climbed 0.80% over the past two days but is trading in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0867, down 0.11%. The markets will be keeping a close eye on European inflation releases today and Thursday. Germany releases the July CPI report later today, with a consensus estimate of 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in July. The once-formidable German juggernaut is in trouble and inflation remains high. The eurozone releases July CPI on Thursday, which is expected to drop from 5.3% to 5.1%. The ECB meets next on September 14th and ECB President Lagarde may have signalled that another rate hike is coming. Lagarde attended the Jackson Hole summit last week and said that interest rates would remain high "as long as necessary" in order to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. Lagarde's hawkish remarks were more hawkish than her comments at the July meeting, where she said that ECB policy makers had an "open mind" about the September decision. There's no arguing that eurozone inflation remains too high, but the argument against raising rates even higher is that the eurozone economy is not in great shape, and nine straight rate hikes from the ECB have cooled economic growth. Further hikes could tip the economy into a recession, which means that the ECB has its work cut out in deciding whether to raise rates again or take a pause in September. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, and disappointing data on Tuesday may have cemented a pause. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August, marking a two-year low. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. This was the sixth decline in the past seven months, a sign that the resilient US labour market is showing cracks. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.0896. The next resistance line is 1.0996 1.0831 and 1.0731 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Nasdaq is ready to drop or surprise us!Next CPI number will be important for SKILLING:NASDAQ , which has been rising like there will be no tomorrow. If we see a hot CPI number, we may see a strong drop towards 14500 area. If core cpi number shows a sign that the sticky part of the inflation is also cooling down, we may see some initial the first steps of the move towards ATH. Let's see if the market will respect the up trend or finally break it down. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
SKILLING:US100
by WhaleGambit
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
DXY Analysis. CPI Day! No trade today!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea after we will get some news from CPI. In my last analysis of DXY my price prediction still short (i will link that idea in this post) My price prediction is still Short. on high timeframe from weekly trendline we have some pretty bearish movements. I think until cpi numbers it will touch daily trendline then it will retest weekly trendline, if there will be not new sellers the price will brake easy that trendline. TODAY I WILL NOT OPEN ANY TRADE UNTIL CHART WILL BE NOT CLEAR! Good luck Everyone.
TVC:DXYShort
by elmakacho
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Traders Anticipating US Inflation DataHi Traders! Ahead of the US CPI data in a couple of hours, USDJPY is trading with momentum, and we could finally see the 145.073 resistance level broken if the inflation outlook looks positive for the US. Looking at the 1W chart, the market looks bullish; we are above the 20 EMA; last week's high was broken; and even with the weaker than expected US jobs report announced last week, the US dollar is still showing strength. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, there is a strong possibility that the market breaks the 145.073 resistance level. Above this level is the psychological 150 level, which is the next long-term target that the market will look to test if the bullish momentum continues. Above 150 is our Apex level at 151.946, which is our record high. Depending on the outlook in the US, we may see this level at some point this year. Though USDJPY looks bullish, the market is currently in a range zone, and the resistance at 145.073 must break to confirm the bullish view. On the other side, below is the 137.915 level, which has been our strong support level over the past few months. If the inflation outlook looks weak and the bullish US dollar's bullish outlook becomes bearish, this level will be the likely long-term target level for USDJPY. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow, as your support greatly helps. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
USD Index road map with US CPI to come.Today's focus: USD Index Pattern – Ascending Triangle Support – 95.68 Resistance – 96.32 Today, we look at the USD index as price continues to trade rangebound after fighting back from a two-day decline. Could today’s CPI data break the deadlock and give the market some direction? Traders will be watching to see what today’s data could do for rate rise expectations. Could a move above expectations lift price above resistance and get the current trend back on track? Or could a miss to the downside confirm an LH and break the trend, setting off fresh selling? If we see the data come in flat, this could maintain the current price range that we are seeing at the moment. Keep an eye on today’s data when it’s released at 8:30 am EST, as it could produce some volatility if the figure comes out outside of market expectations. Have a great day and good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
Btc At Pivotal Level ,Dub The Area The Most Important Trend LineBtc At Pivotal Level, Dub The Area The Most Important Trend Line With CPi ahead and projected to Increase, will Bitcoin keep its correlation with the NASDAQ and continue to act as a high-yield beta stock? Eventually, Bitcoin could diverge from tech stocks and compete with gold or possibly even the dollar in the event of a major flight to safety. First, we have a very probable move lower bar we don't decouple from the tech correlation as the market potentially prices in a Higher for longer from the fed Cpi over 3.4 will be bad for all risk assets and push the dollar high which should be bad for high-yield things like btc Technically, we're seeing divergences In multiple oscillating indicators plus approach long-term trend line Let's see what happens, Up this post if you utilize this Idea Happy Trading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by PipsOverPast
3