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CPI – Inflation, Disinflation, but No RecessionS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/13 Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Our current bearish bias for positional trading continues, with the bear case appearing a little more plausible in the coming days. It is hard to find what unexpected bullish scenarios could evolve in the near future, so bulls need to be a bit cautious with their current gains. Taking some money off the table could be prudent". This morning's CPI numbers have something for everyone, leaving room for both bulls and bears to adapt them to their case. Immediately after the release, yields spiked up, but then fell back down...essentially leaving everything open to one's own interpretation. It remains to be seen if tomorrow's PPI numbers will be any more clarifying than that. Our models indicate bearish bias for positional trades while the index is below 4470 on a daily close basis. The index has to close above 4507 for our models to abandon the bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4487, 4480, 4465, or 4450 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4485, 4475, 4456, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463, and short exits on a break above 4459. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
the inflation data (CPI) will be released. the inflation data (CPI) will be released. Current: 3.2%, average forecast: 3.6%, expected to increase. Consumer Price Index Expectations for Financial Institutions (Inflation): (Lowest: 3.5% Highest: 3.7%) Visa 3.5% Canadian Imperial Bank 3.5% Goldman Sachs 3.6 Bloomberg 3.6% JP Morgan 3.6% Mr. Wolf Capital 3.6% Morgan Stanley 3.6% Royal Bank 3.6% Scotia bank 3.6% TD 3.6% Wells Fargo 3.6% Barclays 3.7% Nomura 3.7% City 3.7% HSBC 3.7% UPS 3.7% -average 3.6%
XETR:DAXEducation
by Evar_Mayi
usdcad trade idea I bias down sideThe Canadian dollar has managed to maintain strength against the USD in a week with little Canadian specific economic data. Last week’s Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement saw Governor Macklem leave the door open to additional hikes should incoming data necessitate. Subsequently, the local balance of trade and labor reports outlined the economies resilience and sustained upside pressures on inflation from an average earnings lens. Higher crude oil prices are also favorable for the CAD while supplementing the inflation narrative that could prompt the aforementioned hike early next year. This is reflected in BoC interest rate expectations (refer to table below) which have been ‘hawkishly’ re-priced to suggest a 10bps peak from 5bps just last week. BANK OF CANADA INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES
Short
by Ttrade-With-Logic
2
cpi plan on goldGold prices appear to be increasingly struggling to break above the key falling trendline from May on the daily chart below. Last week, XAU/USD climbed to the former rising trendline from October after breaking below it, failing to push back above the line. This created a key juncture of resistance that combined both trendlines. Since then, prices have aimed slightly lower, reinforcing the falling trendline. From here, immediate support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1903.46, followed by the August swing lower at 1884.89. Breaking above the trendline could open the door to a broader reversal, exposing the 23.6% level at 1971.63.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ttrade-With-Logic
NQ1! 9/10/23 Supply and Demand LevelsLink to chart: www.tradingview.com Heavy news this upcoming week and the rollover for Futures contracts on 9/13. CPI falls on 9/13 as well, so prepare your charts accordingly! Given the rate we are at for inflation and the housing market supply/demand, I am preparing for either a push to break this wall of resistance we have been facing the past few weeks (pink line) or a break of the blue trend line below. EOW Targets: BULLS 15730-830 or 16000 BEARS 14800 or 14990-15100 If you zoom out and look at the HTF (4HR), we have a possible head and shoulder from June to today. We also see constant support off the blue trendline for that continuation to the upside to reach the head. It's a waiting game, let's be patient to find out what happens this week!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
2
US500 - Inflation data aheadHi Traders, last week the US500 did a correction as expected. Right now price is at a interesting level for Bulls (arround July High) Next week we have to put our eyes on the US inflation data. On wednesday we have the Core CPI. The forcase is +0,2% What is the core CPI? The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. On Thursday we also need to watch for PPI - which is likely a good indicator for future CPI values. What is the PPI? The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Wish you all good trades! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
RBA expected to pause, US nonfarm payrolls rises slightlyThe Australian dollar has started the week with slight gains. In Monday's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6464, up 0.21%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 4.10% when it meets on Tuesday and a rate hike would be a huge surprise. The central bank has paused for two straight meetings and the odds of a third pause stand at 86%, according to the ASX RBA rate tracker. The most important factor in RBA rate policy is of course inflation. In July, CPI fell to 4.9% y/y, down from 5.4% y/y and better than the consensus of 5.2% y/y. Inflation is moving in the right direction and has dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. A third straight pause from the RBA will likely raise expectations that the current rate-tightening cycle is done but I don't believe we're at that point just yet. This is Governor Lowe's final meeting and he is expected to keep the door open to further rate hikes. Incoming Governor Bullock stated last week that the RBA "may still need to raise rates again", adding that the Bank will make its rate decisions based on the data. The RBA isn't anywhere near declaring victory over inflation and has projected that inflation will not fall back within the 2%-3% inflation target until late 2025. The week wrapped up with the US employment report for August. The Fed will be pleased as nonfarm payrolls remained below 200,00 for a third straight month, rising from a revised 157,000 to 187,000. Wage growth fell to 0.2% in August, down from 0.4% in July and below the consensus of 0.3%. The data cements a rate hold at the September 20th meeting, barring a huge surprise from the CPI report a week prior to the rate meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6458. Above, there is resistance at 0.6516 There is support at 0.6395 and 0.6337
by OANDA
Hyperinflation China (CNY) + Japan (JPY) First to Go! Chinese real-estate has collapsed China refuses to update new unemployment metrics (like they've ever told the truth) China BOC keeps printing to backstop this (parabolic m3/m2) China forcing peoples money trapped in this death spiral Japan Real estate is also dead Japan stocks / Gasoline is going parabolic due to the start of hyperinflation not a booming economy Japan's BOJ also can't stop printing! what could go wrong? I've made post about this months ago with warning signs about Japan's stock market going parabolic without anything going on. This is text book Weimar Germany 1923, why the Chinese stocks going down though? simple the capital is trying everything to exit into US markets. The CCP has printed so much money and you know what people did with it? they sold it for US Dollars and used it overseas because nobody is buying the bs that China is a booming / powerful economy its completely collapsing you love to see it!. Japan? their currency is done. Both these countries have debt to GDP past the point of no return. Both these countries have PPI / CPI going parabolic past the point of no return. People have started to panic in China and it will follow in Japan followed by a complete meltdown, but the trick here is there's a chance this will not take out the US markets ironically. All of this capital will flow back into the USA. The final take away from this is the US markets see's strength not from "Real growth" but from countries where people have no option to diverse and enter the US market. "Forecasters recession this recession that" it never equals what the markets actually do.
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
3
EUR/USD eyes German, Eurozone CPI reportThe euro's mini-rally has run out of steam. EUR/USD climbed 0.80% over the past two days but is trading in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, the euro is trading at 1.0867, down 0.11%. The markets will be keeping a close eye on European inflation releases today and Thursday. Germany releases the July CPI report later today, with a consensus estimate of 6.0%, compared to 6.2% in July. The once-formidable German juggernaut is in trouble and inflation remains high. The eurozone releases July CPI on Thursday, which is expected to drop from 5.3% to 5.1%. The ECB meets next on September 14th and ECB President Lagarde may have signalled that another rate hike is coming. Lagarde attended the Jackson Hole summit last week and said that interest rates would remain high "as long as necessary" in order to bring inflation back to the ECB's 2% target. Lagarde's hawkish remarks were more hawkish than her comments at the July meeting, where she said that ECB policy makers had an "open mind" about the September decision. There's no arguing that eurozone inflation remains too high, but the argument against raising rates even higher is that the eurozone economy is not in great shape, and nine straight rate hikes from the ECB have cooled economic growth. Further hikes could tip the economy into a recession, which means that the ECB has its work cut out in deciding whether to raise rates again or take a pause in September. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at next week's meeting, and disappointing data on Tuesday may have cemented a pause. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 106.1 in July, compared to 116.0 in August, marking a two-year low. As well, JOLTS Jobs Openings slowed to 8.82 million in July, down from 9.16 million in June and well off the estimate of 9.46 million. This was the sixth decline in the past seven months, a sign that the resilient US labour market is showing cracks. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on resistance at 1.0896. The next resistance line is 1.0996 1.0831 and 1.0731 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Nasdaq is ready to drop or surprise us!Next CPI number will be important for SKILLING:NASDAQ , which has been rising like there will be no tomorrow. If we see a hot CPI number, we may see a strong drop towards 14500 area. If core cpi number shows a sign that the sticky part of the inflation is also cooling down, we may see some initial the first steps of the move towards ATH. Let's see if the market will respect the up trend or finally break it down. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
SKILLING:US100
by WhaleGambit
$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI- While ECONOMICS:USIRYY numbers remain inflationary, having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th, on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower, ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August, just a day prior to numbers of ECONOMICS:USIRYY . Note that The Head of Federal Reserve, our pal Jerome Powell, stated that Feds do not see Inflation ECONOMICS:USIRYY coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI by 2025. Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'.. How about another Joke, Powell !?
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
DXY Analysis. CPI Day! No trade today!Hello Everyone. I want share my idea after we will get some news from CPI. In my last analysis of DXY my price prediction still short (i will link that idea in this post) My price prediction is still Short. on high timeframe from weekly trendline we have some pretty bearish movements. I think until cpi numbers it will touch daily trendline then it will retest weekly trendline, if there will be not new sellers the price will brake easy that trendline. TODAY I WILL NOT OPEN ANY TRADE UNTIL CHART WILL BE NOT CLEAR! Good luck Everyone.
TVC:DXYShort
by elmakacho