Get started

CPI

USDJPY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, In today's trading session, we are closely monitoring the USDJPY currency pair for a potential buying opportunity around the 139.700 zone. After trading in a downtrend, USDJPY has recently broken out and is currently in a correction phase approaching the retrace zone near the 139.700 support and resistance area. A key factor to consider today is the US monetary policy, specifically the Federal Reserve's interest rate release. If the statement reflects a more hawkish stance than expected, signaling potential future interest rate hikes, it could provide additional confirmation for a USDJPY buy trade. As traders, it is important to conduct thorough analysis, considering technical indicators, price charts, and patterns. Additionally, monitoring fundamental factors such as central bank decisions and economic data releases can provide valuable insights. It's crucial to stay informed about market sentiment and overall market conditions. Remember that trading involves risks, and it is advisable to have a well-defined trading plan, including risk management strategies, in place. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
20
Gold muted awaits the FOMC Monetary PolicyMay’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) came in lower than expected, showing that inflation may be cooling off. The gold price used to surge to $1,970, and then the traders liquidated their position. The gold price dropped below $1,950 since the market awaits the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Investors will look for clues on the Fed's interest rate hikes and monetary tightening plans. If the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening path, it could boost the dollar and bond yields, weighing on gold. Gold prices fell after the lower-than-expected CPI print but remain supported by longer-term inflation fears, geopolitical risks, and a wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting. This week, the Fed’s tone, signals and the coming up U.S. data will be necessary for determining gold's next move.
TVC:GOLD
by ATFX_Global
GBPUSD Approaching the weekly trend ahead of CPI data.Dear Traders, I'd like to bring your attention to the current market conditions of GBPUSD. It is currently experiencing a downtrend but is undergoing a correction phase. The price is approaching a significant resistance zone at 1.26100, which coincides with the major trend. This area is worth monitoring closely. In addition, it's crucial to take into account the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release this week. This economic indicator is expected to have a substantial impact on the strength of the US dollar and may provide insights into the future actions of Fed Chair Powell. If the CPI figures are higher than anticipated, it suggests that the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates, which could strengthen the dollar further. On the other hand, if the CPI falls below expectations, it is more likely that the Fed will postpone any rate hikes in their next monetary policy decision. Remember to prioritize risk management and trade with caution. Best regards, Joe
Short
by JoeChampion
43
Celebrating the Lowest High Inflation?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market's radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 06/13: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4367, 4348, 4340, 4311, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4364, 4354, 4334, 4308, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4345 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4357 or 4326. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:26am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The Eagle eyes a ( Risk on ) Inflation report 🦅The market is going up for asian session and I'm anticipating a correction of this price action during lodnon session. With USD CPI data during New york session it is possible price could just fly to the next daily resistance zone 1.0813. This will likely occur if the 4.1% forecasted inflation rate isn't met and inflation decreases at a slower rate than what is expected. I think this to be the more likely scenario because a .8% decrease in inflation seems like a bit much to me. I'm not anticipating that EURUSD will take it's lovely time increasing. It will be abrupt and cutthroat as the market blows through Investors's ***** ... Okay I will stop there because I don't want to make things to explicit. That's whats happening when price fluctuates 50 pips in the blink of an eye anyways. It's not what you want to hear but it's the truth. The unprepared will be taken to the slaughterhouse. I will implement my trading system as it allots. Risk management / Position sizing and capital preservation are especially significant during times like this. CPI data releases have acquired an important role in the last 2 years due consistently high inflation. If Eurusd continues it's downtrend on Higher timeframes and last week's bull candle was just a dead cat's bounce, then we may anticipate that price will spike at or above 1.0782 Daily resistance level or even go touch 1.0813 Daily resistance level before returning to the downside as the current daily candle closes back underneath 1.0782 Daily level and goes back down prior to FOMC interest rate news on Wednesday. Price has estalbished a new Daily support level at 1.0746
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
gold will make a pattern decline on two formation which will#XAUUSD pair have made a retest back to 1965 today after our selling target have hit, the pair have two circulation but the both have decline so now we wait for a clear wave pattern to know if gold will drop back below 1952 again but firstly if gold hit the 1970 limit in H3 then a possible rise will occur above 1979 which can hold on break more bullish but if the price decline then we expect the 1952 limit before a pull back below 1941 limit but today we expect the CPI to be higher than expected.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by newbeginneracademy
USDJPY: CPI and FOMC weekHey traders! Today, our focus is on USDJPY, where we are observing a potential buying opportunity around the 138.700 zone. USDJPY is currently in an uptrend and appears to be approaching a significant support and resistance area at 138.700. This week, we have two key events that could impact the market. First, on Wednesday, we have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will be announced. However, the day before the FOMC meeting, we have the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is important to gauge the Fed's next move and intentions. If the CPI data shows high numbers, it may indicate the possibility of further rate hikes, signaling a bullish sentiment for the USD. However, if the CPI data comes in lower than expected, it could suggest that the Fed might delay rate hikes, potentially altering the previously anticipated long-term plan for the USD. Therefore, keeping an eye on the CPI data before the FOMC meeting is crucial to understand the potential impact on USDJPY and adjust our trading strategy accordingly. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
16
EURUSD Technical Analysis: Preparing for CPI and FOMC Impact.Hello Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, our focus will be on the EURUSD pair as we seek a selling opportunity around the 1.08 zone. Previously, EURUSD was experiencing an uptrend and successfully broke out of it. However, it is currently undergoing a correction phase and approaching the retrace area at the 1.08 resistance zone. It is important to also keep an eye on the CPI data scheduled for release next week, specifically on Tuesday. This data will serve as confirmation for the trade. If the CPI comes in above expectations, it suggests that the Federal Reserve still needs to work on increasing interest rates in their upcoming monetary policy by Wednesday, which could trigger further strength in the US dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI numbers are within expectations, this may lead to USD weakness as Federal Reserve Chair Powell may lean towards postponing a rate hike. Let's monitor the situation closely and trade wisely. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
24
USDCHF Weekly Forecast CPI | 4th June 2023Fundamental Backdrop CPI m/m expected to increase 0.3% on Monday Technical Confluences Current resistance level at 0.90856 Next resistance at 0.92158 Near-term support level at 0.89876 Idea If the CPI increases at 0.3% as expected or more, we could see the price break the current resistance at 0.90856, before heading towards the next resistance at 0.92158. However, if the CPI decreases instead, we could see price drop and head towards the near-term support level at 0.89876 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Long
by OlympusLab
1
Data error Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food And Energy (JPTCPIEFA) & JapHello good morning & good day to all! There seems to be an error for these 2 Japan econ data when we chart on Trading View, Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food And Energy (JPTCPIEFA) & Japan Tokyo Core CPI (JPTCCPI). Previously, these 2 data have been presented in index values but it seems that yesterday, their format has been changed to y/y % for the last 2 months but does not adjust prior historical data points to y/y. Thus, right now, I cannot do any meaningful analysis of these charts. Wrote in about these errors and sent a ticket to Hep Centre but no reply. Can anyone help over here? or is there a rep from Trading View here? Much appreciated. Thank you
ECONOMICS:JPTCCPI
by Kelvin-Wong
Aussie unchanged ahead of Lowe, CPIThe Australian dollar is drifting lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6538 in Europe, unchanged on the day. RBA Governor Lowe testifies before a Senate Committee later today. Lawmakers will likely press Lowe about rate policy and the battle against inflation. Earlier this month, the RBA shocked the markets by delivering a 25-basis point hike. At the April meeting, the RBA had paused in order to assess the effect of its aggressive rate-hike cycle, and the markets had expected another pause at the May meeting. Lowe will have to reassure the committee that the RBA is following a plan and is not zig-zagging between hikes and pauses. Attention will quickly shift to inflation, with the release of Australian CPI on Wednesday. Inflation has been falling, and the downturn is expected to continue, with a consensus estimate of 6.4%, down from 7.0% prior. The RBA has pledged to bring inflation back down to its 2% target, but there's no doubt that it will be a long and bumpy road. The central bank meets on June 6th and is widely expected to pause and maintain the benchmark rate at 3.85%. The US debt ceiling agreement is a done deal. Well, almost. President Biden and Republican Speaker McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle which must be ratified by both houses of Congress. Some Republicans have threatened to vote against the deal, but with overwhelming support from the Democrats, approval of the deal is very likely. The weeks of uncertainty prior to the deal weighed on risk appetite, and the big winners have been US Treasury yields and the US dollar. There is resistance at 0.6665 and 0.6756 0.6525 is a weak support line, followed by 0.6434
by OANDA
1
EURUSD Weekly Forecast | 29th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Last week, notably the German Flash Manufacturing PMI and French Flash Services PMI dropped a lot causing the EUR to weaken. This week there's only the German Prelim CPI m/m which is also expected to decrease from 0.4% to 0.2%. This will cause the EUR to weaken further. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance level at 1.07350 Next support at 1.05340 Idea We could see the EUR drop towards the support at 1.05340 by the end of the week. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
NDX - The upcoming testI have done a lot of research over this past week. Almost everyone is extremely bearish about stocks / assets in general. Pretty much any indicator of sentiment that you look at indicates panic. In fact, we seem to have reached a record for fear levels. In the 2008 financial crisis, there were frequent news reports about the housing slowdown by 2006. It was a well-worn issue by 2008, but most leading economists said that the housing market didn't have to be connected to the economy or stocks. I mention 2008 because many of those who are bearish see that we are correlated heavily to the 2008 pattern. If we are, then around next week we should see a fast, substantial decline. However, at this point in the cycle, the crisis was obvious. Banks were actually going bankrupt. Some had been losing billions since Q1 2008. Now, if we get a special surprise report or something, this could all change, but that is true of any market. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that we will go lower. As you can see on the chart, we have cleared the swing low from June and have held below it. There is nothing further to look at... right? The thing is that we have not had an adequate test of this downward move. The indices are down 6 days in a row. There seems to be no upside, even intraday. Let's think about what it could look like if we suddenly rallied 10% in a day or something like that. It would look like an obvious double bottom pattern on any longer-term chart, like a weekly chart. Last week's bearish pin bar doesn't have any effect on this. It would also coincide with September 2020 swing lows. On the S&P index it looks even a bit stronger because it has not fully tested the lows from several days ago. This sort of pattern could play out if we somehow get a bullish CPI reading, and we will find out in a few hours. I also want to mention that during economic slowdowns, like the 1970s "stagflation," stock prices do poorly. However, during just periods of high inflation, stock prices do well - and they do a little bit better, on average, to account for inflation. If we get some sort of stable, 4% inflation environment, then your money is certainly safe in the stock market. Right now, earnings have not come down. By this point in 2008, earnings growth was already negative year on year. Earnings growth for companies has slipped, but we are not even close to negative territory yet. Everyone is expecting further bad things. However, for anything catastrophic to happen, there has to be either: A real crisis like 2008 / 1973 Delusion like 2000 / 1929 Since everyone is so bearish about the upcoming CPI, you can expect that even a mediocre CPI could send the markets higher, which could also trigger that pattern I outlined above. A "good" (low) CPI would probably cause some enthusiasm (though this seems unlikely with today's producer price index) The point is that the chance of the bear market coming to an end here is much higher than people anticipate, and we should be able to find out in a bit. However, if we just keep going lower, this will prove that the crowd is always right and you can keep on selling. Good luck!
NASDAQ:NDX
by roxythetradermage
1
Frothy TimesLast Wednesday, inflation prints (CPI) came in below expectations of a ‘hot’ print which would have likely indicated that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening rates. Cryptocurrency and equities markets reacted positively while bond yields dropped. These numbers are expected to persuade the Fed to lean more towards a "pause" stance for its next FOMC meeting in June. Meanwhile, markets are still concerned about the debt ceiling crisis as negotiations have not shown much progress as of yet. Despite the name, this crisis is actually more of a political issue as it hinges on a piece of must-pass legislation which would allow the federal government to increase its borrowing to fund its spending obligations. The Democrats currently have control of the Senate, while the Republicans have gained a majority in the House of Representatives. As such, they have used the debt ceiling as a political bargaining chip, pushing for cuts on what they deem as "irresponsible spending". Unless a compromise is reached, it’s likely that caution will echo throughout markets. Currently, the U.S. is forecast to hit its debt limit in early June. If the United States defaults on its debt for the first time in history, tens of billions of dollars in payments for Social Security benefits, payments to Medicaid providers, federal salaries, veterans' benefits, and other programs could potentially be at risk. As a result, investors are finding it challenging to decide on a trade amidst the uncertainty surrounding the debt default and resolution. Macroeconomic theory would predict that a resolution to increase the debt ceiling would reign in government spending, thus putting downward pressure on bond yields, thereby making the purchase of bonds at the current yields more attractive. Additionally, S&P500 earnings yields currently sit around 5.5% while risk-free 1-month U.S. Treasury Bills are paying the same. This makes holding stocks potentially less enticing to many investors and could serve as a rationale for shorting equities. From a technical perspective, since Bitcoin lost the $30K level, it has proven difficult to reclaim. The market has tested the level twice and has so far struggled to break it. In order for the next leg up to commence, Bitcoin will first need to reclaim $30K. In our previous market update, we noted the convergence of MA9 and MA50, signalling a potential crossover. Last Tuesday, that crossing finally occurred. When a fast moving average (MA9) crosses below a slower moving average (MA50), markets perceive it as a bearish signal. Another important indicator to take a look at is the MACD. Last week, it remained relatively neutral. Although the MACD line has been below its signal line, the spread between them has been quite small, represented by the short bars on the histogram. However, recently the two lines have begun to diverge. This is another bearish signal. The last time this happened, Bitcoin lost $30K and fell towards $27K. Although technical indicators aren’t always accurate at predicting market direction, most indicators are pointing towards an increase in bearish momentum across the crypto market in the coming days. Finally, over recent weeks, the market has seen a variety of meme coins rally upwards. During phases of cycles, ‘meme coin season’ has often served as an indicator of a local top. Back in 2021, shortly after Doge reached its all-time high, Bitcoin capitulated from $60,000 to around $30,000. With this 'silly season' firmly upon us, current market sentiment feels rather frothy.
by Coinrule
1
SP500 - Waiting for a bullish reaction. Hello traders, We are expecting a bullish continuation for SP500, but we have to pay close attention to the price action. Overall the trend is bullish and we expect this consolidation to end soon. There is a chance that the price might continue making local lower lows, but we won't be interested in that and we will only focus on the buy setups. More detailed information is in the video. We will also keep you posted in the comment section if anything occurs. Trade with care.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by financialflagship
2
CAD CPI could trigger next wave downThe previous CAD CPI data marked a significant turning point, with CAD having a 2 week hangover and the basket of major currencies getting a wild ride against the weakened CAD. Could we see the opposite this time around? USD is seeing significant strength against the basket but is starting to look ripe for a pullback. If we see another strong day for USD on monday, pushing USDCAD into the cluster of pre vious activity between 1.36000 - 1.36500, we could be primed for a significant pullback in USD strength and the CAD CPI might just be the catalyst for a major leg down to back below 1.34500. Of course, don't trade blindly, wait to see if the setup occurs, see the CPI numbers and how the market reacts. This is a very specific scenario, but if we are in that 1.36000 range when the numbers are released Tuesday, I'll be very quick to enter short if the market sees intraday downside momentum.
Short
by HayeTrading
6