Get started

CPI

PPI Data, Rate Hikes, QQQ / SPX Support and Resistance- CPI data came in expected today, excpet core is 0.1% hotter market didn't really care since we need something really hot to not get a 0.25bps - PPI data likely will come in expected as well today, since CPI was pretty aligned so technical matter more now - SPX came close to 200 MA today rejected the 3940 area but QQQ is above 200 MA - QQQ and SPX reject resistance at the same time - QQQ broke 294.5 support (yesterdays triple top resistance) in the afternoon and bears didn't follow through bulls V shaped into close - KRE and XLF both still in daily bear flag territory. KEY QQQ & SPX BOTH is still under resistance even though we V shaped we closed right under it, so still in the chop range, I am neutral now yesterday i was bull lean and played the bull move this morning as i mentioned when we broke the triple top resistance at 294.5 QQQ I am going long. Now at this range its anyone's game since there are both bear thesis and bull thesis that are both correct at these levels. currently all cash took profit this morning likely scalping depending on which side we break tomorrow.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ArcadiaTrading
2
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 15/03A review of the price action from the European session and the US session. European markets moved higher once US CPI was released and ended with gains to reverse some of the previous move down. The US was under pressure for a large part of the session only ending in green after a late rally into the close. US Data out showed inflation remains a problem and it is too early to think the Fed will pause rate rises. I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue and will weigh on share markets if the Fed, and other major central banks, can not get it under control....this all points to more 'risk off' into major share markets. I look at some key levels to watch and the price action setups I expect to see play out on the major markets below. Markets covered :- DOW Nasdaq DAX FTSE ASX200 Hang Seng USD Index Gold Oil Copper
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
XAUUSD No trade range!!!Good evening gold gang! well cpi didnt provide us with tonnes of volume! weird. I managed to get the small scalp on the strong down move with a 15m candle close but other than that .. price has ranged as i thought it might (see previous analysis) Asian session .. my trade levels remain the same. Im looking to take the breaks above and below the range. No clear direction as yet. DO NOT trade the range, its too risky. Thanks again for all the love on my posts. Im very much enjoying it as trading is a pretty lonely game .. and chatting to you guys and sharing my ideas is keeping the spark alive for me. Catch you for London session. tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
2
BTC CPI 14/03/23 continued...As the data came in, CPI at 6.0% YoY as estimated means that we get a priced in result. As I previously stated this result is priced in and is ultimately neutral. The orange path followed nearly perfectly, I did predict more of a bearish swing after breaking the previous swing high at 25.5k. We're back within range currently, maybe we get some late longers that drives up price once more but I could see BTC cooling off for a bit. Any further loses would look quite bad on the daily timeframe.
by ProR35
British pound's rally fizzles as markets settle downThe British pound has reversed directions after an impressive rally that saw GBP/USD climb 370 points. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.24%. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday sent the financial markets into turmoil on Monday. US bank stocks declined sharply, while safe-haven gold powered higher. The US dollar retreated against the major currencies and the 2-year Treasury yield fell almost a full point. Tuesday has brought better news, as the markets appear to have settled down. The US dollar has regrouped and is higher against the majors. There is an uneasy calm in the air, but that doesn't necessarily mean that this latest crisis is behind us. Investors are on alert and will be very sensitive to new developments and any negative news could renew market volatility. The Fed and Treasury Department acted quickly to protect depositors and President Biden sent a reassuring message at an impromptu television address, but the collapse of the 16th largest lender in the US means it's unlikely to be "business as usual" for some time. It was just a week ago that Fed Chair Powell's hawkish testimony on the Hill raised expectations of the Fed delivering a 50-bp increase at the March 22 meeting. Those expectations have vanished into smoke, with the markets now expecting a 25-bp hike, with an outside chance of a pause.  We could see further market repricing after today's CPI report, with headline CPI expected to fall to 6.0%, down from 6.4%. In the UK, the employment report was within expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, shy of the estimate of 3.8%. Hourly earnings fell to 5.7%, as expected, down from an upwardly revised 6%. The pound hasn't reacted to the release and the data is unlikely to change minds at the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates by 25 bp at the March 23 meeting. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2113 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.2294 There is support at 1.1984 and 1.1854
by OANDA
1
SVB: Understanding and Managing Interest Rate Risks CBOT: 10-Year Treasury Futures ( CBOT:ZN1! ) Last Wednesday, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) NASDAQ:SIVB announced that it incurred $1.8 billion loss in the sales of its bond portfolio and sought to issue new shares. Within 48 hours, a bank-run induced by panic customers brought down the legendary bank. On Friday, US banking regulators seized control of SVB. By Sunday, the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Depository Insurance Corporation (FDIC) jointly announced a rescue plan that would make whole all depositors. However, SVB shareholders are not protected. Why has happened to the well-respected and once well-capitalized bank? Opportunity and Risk Go Side-by-Side Traditional banks seldom extend credit to startups, which are mostly under-collateralized, with little or no profit and big uncertainties about their future survival. SVB developed a niche competitive edge to provide banking services to companies funded by venture capitals. In the past 40 years, it nurtured many high-profiled tech startups through their entire life cycle, from early-stage to IPO and to Big-Tech giants. If Sequoia Capital invested in your firm and you apply for a loan from a commercial bank, you can expect the loan officer to ask: “Sequoia Who?” But if you go to SVB, they would say: “$10 million will be in your account tomorrow.” VCs are exceptionally good at spotting future technological trends, and they follow a rigorous due diligence process to pick investing targets. By working with VCs and startups closely, SVB created an ecosystem that foster technological innovations, and grew to become the 16th largest US bank by deposit. However, SVB’s concentration in the high-tech sector also make it vulnerable to a boom-and-bust cycle. Last year, bear market hit the industry hard. Publicly traded firms couldn’t raise money with falling share prices. Private companies found the path to IPO got blocked. As startup clients withdrew deposits to keep their companies afloat, SVB is short on capital. It was forced to sell most available-for-sale bonds at a huge loss. Bad news travelled fast in close-knit tech investing community. VCs urged their portfolio companies to get the hack out of SVB. All told, customers withdrew a staggering $42 billion of deposits on Thursday. By the close of business day, SVB had a negative cash balance of $958 million, according to the filing, and this triggered the government takeover. A Commercial Bank with a Failing Grade In fiscal year 2022, SVB earned $4.5 billion in Net Interest Income (NII) and $1.7 billion in non-interest income. When you take away the bells and whistles, SVB is by large a commercial bank. About 73% of its revenue comes from taking in deposits at a low interest rate and making loans at a higher interest rate. Based on its 2022 10K filing, SVB managed $209.2 billion in total interest-bearing asset and earned $5.7 billion. This represented an effective yield of 2.73%. During the same period, SVB paid out $1.2 billion in funding cost, which equated to 0.57%. • Therefore, in 2022, its NII = 2.73% - 0.57% = 2.16% • In comparison, its NII for year 2021 was 2.02% (=2.09% - 0.07%). • On the surface, SVB was doing well, with NII spread increasing by 14 basis points year-over-year. What has gone wrong then? Dive deeper into SVB’s balance sheet, we see the long-dated Treasury bonds and illiquid mortgage-backed securities it held got hammered by the rising interest rates. Simply put, SVB got its interest payment back, but the value of its investment principal eroded in a huge way in a rate-hiking environment. All in all, managing interest rate risk is at the core of banking business. A Naked Bond Portfolio In its 10K, SVB puts its investment portfolio in Available-For-Sales (AFS), Held-To-Maturity (HTM) and Non-marketable securities categories. AFS balance was $26.1 billion as of December 31st, including: • U.S. Treasury securities $ 16,135m (61.9%) • Agency-issued MBS $6,603m (25.3%) • Agency-issued CMBS $1,464m (5.6%) • Foreign government debt securities $1,088m (4.2%) • Agency-issued CMO—fixed rate $678m (2.6%) • U.S. agency debentures $101m (0.4%) • Total AFS securities $26,069m (100%) Last week, SVB sold $21 billion in the AFS portfolio and incurred a loss of $1.8 billion, or -8.6%. AFS assets are marked to market every quarter. My understanding is that the loss figure was based on selling price vs. year-end fair market value. Total loss calculated from purchasing price could be much bigger, as these bonds may have been marked down multiple times during previous quarters. Evidence: Since March 2022, CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN) price went down from 124 to 109 (-12%) and 30-Year Treasury Bond (ZB) fell from 152 to 118 (-22%). CBOT Treasury futures market, with its sheer size and liquidity, makes it the marketplace of choice to manage interest risk in times of uncertainties. Each ZN contract has a notional value of $100,000. • On Monday March 13th, daily trading volume is 3,760,911 lots, which translates into total notional of $376 billion. Open interest (OI) stands at 4,311,338, or $431 billion in notional. • Volume and OI for ZB are 719,518 and 1,209,881, respectively. Notional value for each is $72 billion and $121 billion, respectively. What’s Next On Friday, Signature Bank customers spooked by the SVB collapse withdrew $10 billion. That quickly led to the bank failure. Regulators announced Sunday that Signature was being taken over to protect its depositors and the stability of the U.S. financial system. Despite government intervention over the weekend, fear ran contagious through the financial industry this Monday. San Francisco’s First Republic Bank, which had $212 billion in assets at the end of 2022, saw its stock price plunge as much as 70% when the market opened Monday morning. By market close, US stock market stabilized. Investors wonder if a banking crisis could be the final punch to end the year-long Fed rate hikes. Lessons Learnt As investors, we usually allocate our financial assets across various instruments, such as stocks, bonds, and derivatives. The 60 (stock) / 40 (bond) portfolio is the most popular advice from Wall Street. People generally pay more attention to what stocks to buy and hold, but we may not think twice about managing interest risk in a rising rate environment. The SVB fallout shows that even the safest, risk-free Treasury bonds, if not actively managed, could fall prey to interest rate changes and liquidity risk, resulting in loss of market value. For me, this is a wake-up call and a good time to review my bond holdings. Some may be hidden in a 401K retirement plan. Hedging interest rate risk with CBOT Treasury futures and Micro Yield futures could go a long way to stay solvent. A View on Interest Rate Trajectory Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the consumer price index rose 0.4% in February and 6% from a year ago, in line with market expectations. This is the most recent data the Fed will consider before it makes interest decision on March 22nd. Inflation is cooling, but still too high. A bank run shows how damaging rising interest rate is to the economy. Whether the Fed will continue its rate hikes, pause them, or end them altogether, I think all options are open. In my view, interest rate is in an uncharted territory once again. With investors in panic mode, they will likely overreact to the Fed decision. This may be a good time to place an order of out-of-the-money options on CBOT 10-Year Treasury Futures (ZN). On March 14th, the June ZN contract is quoted at 113’220. Quoting convention in Treasury market is 100 and 1/64th. The quote reads as (113 + 22.0/64), or $113.34375 on $100 par value. If the Fed slows or pause the hike, Treasury price will likely go up. Call options would be appropriate in this case. • The 115-strike call is quoted 0’20 (=20/64). This is converted into $312.5 premium on the $100,000 contract notional for each contract. If the Fed stays its course on fighting inflation, Treasury price could fall. And put options would be a way to express your view. • The 112-strike put is quoted 0’14, or $218.75 premium per contract. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6
DXY Potential Forecast | Pre CPI | 14th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employments was good, well above the forecasted or what the market has been pricing in. 3. However, average hourly earnings increased at a decreasing rate to 0.2% from 0.3%. 4. This shows the slowing down of the wage inflation , which is directly correlated with the inflation print and numbers, showing an important signal/sign that inflation could be worse off. 5. In addition, unemployment rate increased by 0.2% compared to previous months. 6. The average earnings and unemployment rate prints showcases the effect of the continuous rate hikes that the Fed has partaken in. 7. This directly discourages the Fed from taking on a more hawkish stance in the market, upon seeing the fruition of the restrictive policy the Fed has performed. CPI 1. If CPI were to be worse off than forecasted, this really solidifies the bearishness of the USD as it confirms that the Fed policy has been coming to fruition and there might not be a need to hike interest rates anymore. 2. However, if CPI print continues to be resilient and strong or greater than expectations, there is a marked chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC meeting, in which this hawkish stance will continue to drive the market bullish for the USD. 3. All eyes will be on the CPI print tonight. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
Pre-CPI - BTC is currently at resistance diagonal that previously was a support. A very dangerous and pivotal point. Already tested it and didn't pass through. - The pump was a very smart play during USDC depeg along with Binance converting emergency fund from $ to BTC, BNB, ETH. Hence there is a stall pre-CPI with no certain continuation. - Whales are still selling. Exchange outflow of 7.15k BTC quickly changed to inflow of 11.73k YTD. - 25.2k is still a expected as a massive sell area - 2 x 4H closes above Daddy Trendline will suggest an attempt at 25.2 area. - For a certain trend continuation a monthly closure 25.2k is needed. At this point in time, shorts look much more attractive than longs. Stay safe in the news driven environment.
by devsynart
2
XAUUSD Asia session pull back. I missed the move. Good morning gold gang!! hope you're well Asian session provided us with the forecasted pullback to my level (accuracy!) .. nice short positions would have been available during the session with quite a lot of volume. Price then slowed down at the level and at 6am, shot up with volume. If i was awake at that time, that entry would have been a no brainer for me. Big rejection on the hourly at the level and a failure to close below. Entry on the break of the doji and boom .. 70 pips. Rest of today i think we will range around the major price level i have marked, waiting for the news. I have no predictions on the news, i just want to react 15 mins after. Ill be on the charts from 1pm gmt. If not range we might see price move up to my next level marked. have a good day guys, catch you for CPI! tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
2
XAUUSD target met to the pip! expecting range bound priceGood evening gold gang! what a beautiful day to trade the precious metal. Trades called today both won and ran for 100 pips each with little drawdown following the bullish bias. For asian session, im expecting price to either rise up to my next level marked on the chart, or simply range around the major price level (marked in white) until cpi news release. There should be a deeper pull back at some point, but the sentiment has been so bullish .. im not sure when it will come just yet. Safest play would be to wait until after the news. Its gonna be a good one! Catch you tomorrow tommyXAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
4
Euro hits 1-month high as Silicon Valley Bank collapse weighs onThe euro has posted sharp gains at the start of the week, extending its rally against a retreating US dollar. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0740, up 0.95% and its highest level since February 15. Perhaps it is fitting that today's economic calendar has no US or European releases, allowing investors to focus their full attention on the fallout from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This is the largest US bank to fail since 2008 and understandably, investors are alarmed that the contagion could spread and the US banking system could be at risk. Over the weekend, New York officials closed Signature Bank, one of the main banks in the cryptocurrency sector. The US government acted decisively and said SVB depositors (but not investors) would be protected and President Biden made a television appearance to reassure a nervous public that the banking sector is safe and those responsible for the SVB collapse would be held accountable. The fact that Biden had to address the nation reflects fears that the SVB failure could trigger a full-blown banking crisis. The SVB collapse has sent the US dollar in retreat against the majors, as the market expectations of a 50-bp hike from the Fed next week have evaporated. Just last week, the markets had priced a 50-bp hike at 70% and a 25-bp increase at 30%. That has shifted to a 70% likelihood of a 25-bp increase and a 30% chance of the Fed taking a pause, with a zero chance of a 50-bp hike. Goldman Sachs had projected a 25-bp last week but now expects the Fed to pause. The US releases CPI on Tuesday and the release was expected to play a key role in the Fed rate decision, but that was before the SVB collapse triggered a massive repricing in the markets. Still, the inflation report will be widely watched by investors and by the Fed. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 6.0% in February, after a 6.4% gain in January. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0718. The next resistance level is 1.0798 There is support at 1.0622 and 1.0542
by OANDA
Charting 8 Currencies: A Weekly Forex Analysis and CPI PreviewIn this week's Tradingview analysis, I've examined eight individual currencies and marked off key levels, support/resistance, and trendlines. These charts help me gauge the strengths and weaknesses of different pairs, which I'll be keeping an eye on for the week. However, the fundamental landscape is also worth watching, especially with the upcoming CPI event. Last week's NFP data was mixed, with some numbers beating expectations while others missed. Traders are now looking to Tuesday's CPI data to get a clearer sense of the market's direction. If the CPI data is a miss, we may see upside in risk assets and downside in the dollar. On the other hand, a beat in CPI could trigger the opposite response. Here's a brief rundown of each currency: USD: The 4H chart suggests an uptrend, but a break of the support level could lead to further downside. Reclaiming the key level could signal a continuation of the upside move. GBP: Recent price action hit a resistance zone, and I expect a pullback. I'll be watching the key level around the 50% fib for a potential bounce or downside move. EURUSD: The current uptrend may continue, but breaking the trendline and key level could trigger a downside move. JPY: Price is at an interesting juncture. Breaking the pattern and key level could give it more momentum to the upside, but failing to do so could push price down to the second key level. Watching the US10Y for further downside momentum is also important because it can add strength to the JPY. CHF: Recent price movements seem stretched, and I'll be watching for any pullback or price action at the prior resistance level. AUD: The 4H candle just broke and closed below the prior support level, indicating potential downside. A reclaim of the prior support level could indicate a false break. NZDUSD: Our support level is currently holding. If it breaks, we may see a downward move. However, a breakout above our trendline and key level would suggest a possible bullish move. CAD: There's currently downside pressure on the CAD. Watching the key level 2 for a potential reversal or further downside move. Wishing you all the best of luck in your trades, and I hope this breakdown provides some valuable insights.
by natron
8
DXY Potential Forecast | Post NFP | 13th March 2023Fundamental Backdrop 1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted. 2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted. 3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted. 4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing. 5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed and hence sentiments believe that the Fed now has lesser incentive to hike by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC. 6. All eyes will now be on CPI release this week and if CPI drops, we could see further downside pressure on the DXY. Technical Confluences 1. Price reacted from a H4 resistance zone at 104.6 and has since went lower. 2. Very strong bearish pressure from Monday's asian open. 3. Price action has shifted market structure to bearish. 4. Would be appropriate to look for short positions on the USD. Idea Price can potentially come lower to tap into the key support level at 102.65. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
NAS100 Monthly We all know the federal reserve are trying to fight inflation . Last nfp on febuary 3rd 2023 came out hot 517k , this is scary for the federal reserve as they were hiking interest rates at .25 now they are looking at a possible 50bs . If price close below 10927.0 on the weekly there is a high probability, we could CRASH . The daily timeframe is maintaining structure creating LH and LL. Jerome powell will crash the markets to get inflation at 2% the targeted goal he dont care.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by DwayneOTSchartzzz