Get started

CPI

USOIL | DECRYPTERS | US OILHi people Welcome to our OIL Analysis We put Our Technical and Fundamental Analysis together So both can be Combined 1- My Political Aspect is FED wanted to show people that their polices are working the oil prices will move inflation again. 2- Strength of USD was keeping US inflation low relative to Other countries ,but if USD get deep dive more it'll also fuel the inflation. 3- If US make USD more strong they can buy oil at cheaper prices i Really think it will go for that , Four our Technical point of view look our Dxy Analysis.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by DECRYPTERS
Morning Update- The Yens For The WinI don't have much to say about this week's trading except, glad it went the way it did and CPI data helped price move this week. I took advantage of a few Japanese Yen trades. My hopes is that you did too. In my humble opinion, they moved better to me than most currency pairs did. So, yay! It's the Yen's for the win! Now to update. Most Yen pairs made new lows. This is the best time to update your charts to find an opportunity to possible sell again, if your strategy meshes with the recent movement of course. I'd love to see fullbacks via the daily timeframe before I enter another longterm swing again, but thats just me. Be well. Happy Friday. Enjoy your weekend. I'll see you all Sunday night at 8:00 pm EST. for another live stream. -Shaquan
Short
by ShaquanLopez
4
CPI & Inflation Rate USHello everyone! Let's take a look on what happened yesterday on the US financial market and understand the impact of CPI and inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation news from the United States can have a significant impact on financial markets and the value of the U.S. dollar. The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, and inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. When the CPI and inflation numbers are higher than expected , it can indicate that the economy is growing, which can boost stock prices, lead to higher interest rates, and appreciate the dollar. This is because as the economy grows, companies will see increased demand for their products and services, which can lead to higher profits and stock prices. Higher interest rates can also attract more investors to bonds, which can lead to higher bond prices. Additionally, a strong economy can lead to increased demand for U.S. goods and services, and increased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars increases, which can lead to an increase in the value of the dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI and inflation numbers are lower than expected , it can indicate that the economy is slowing down , which can lead to lower stock prices, lower interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This is because as the economy slows down, companies will see decreased demand for their products and services, which can lead to lower profits and stock prices. Lower interest rates can also lead to less investors in bonds, which can lead to lower bond prices. Additionally, a weak economy can lead to decreased demand for U.S. goods and services, and decreased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars decreases, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve uses inflation as an indicator to change the monetary policy, as they use interest rates as a tool to control inflation. Typically if inflation is too high, the Fed will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and curb inflation, and if inflation is too low, the Fed will decrease interest rates to stimulate the economy. These monetary policy decisions can also have an impact on the value of the dollar, as when the Fed raises interest rates, it can make the U.S. a more attractive place to invest, which can lead to an appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, it can make the U.S. a less attractive place to invest, which can lead to a depreciation of the dollar.
ECONOMICS:USCPIEducation
by m_maia14
A Grim Picture of InflationFed Funds Futures (ZQ) CBOT:ZQ1! , 2-Yr Yield (2YY) CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , 10-Yr Yield (10Y) CBOT_MINI:10Y1! This is the third report in the series “Year of the Rabbit: Short-tailed Trading”. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% in December 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1% in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday, January 12th. Over the last 12 months, the headline CPI increased 6.5%. The inflation index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3% in December, after rising 0.2% in November. The Core CPI increased 5.7% year-over-year. December is the only month in 2022 when aggregate price falls below prior-month level. The headline CPI is now 0.5% lower than a year ago on an annualized basis. Cooling inflation is welcoming news to consumers, businesses, and investors. It also gives the US Federal Reserve more flexibility to moderate its hawkish monetary policy. Inflation by Category Data Paints a Different Picture The December CPI data was a “one-man show”. Gasoline price declined 9.4% in one month, bringing its annual change to -1.5%. After an all-time high record of $5/gallon reached in June, we ended 2022 with lower gasoline price year-over-year. If you think we are getting relief in energy cost, nothing could be further from the truth. • Fuel oil dropped 16.6% in December, but it is up 41.5% for the year • Electricity price went up 1% in December and +14.3% for the year • Pipelined natural gas were up 3% monthly and +19.3% yearly Americans are getting bigger utility bills to light up the room and heat the house this winter. Other essential items: • Food cost +0.3% in December and +10.4% Y/Y in 2022 • Shelter cost +0.8% monthly and +7.5% annually • New cars cost 5.9% more but used cars are 8.8% cheaper in 2022 Inflation is certainly on the way down, but it is sticky. Many product and service items essential to household living and business operation are far from under control. Interest Rate Outlook for 2023 After the release of new CPI data, market consensus centers on a modest 25-basis-point increase on February 1st., which would bring the Fed Funds rate up to 4.50-4.75%. I also expect another 25-bp raise on March 22nd, setting the so-called terminal rate at 4.75-5.00% for the rest of 2023. This is my baseline forecast for 2023. The previous section shows that inflation is still uncomfortably high for food, housing, and energy to power the home, as well as for new vehicle. The Fed’s job for fighting inflation is far from over. I do not expect any rate cuts to occur in foreseeable future. When it comes to central bank monetary policy, there is a lagging period before it works its way through the economy. The response lag could be anywhere from 6 to 12 months. By my estimate, it takes about 7 months in this rate-hike cycle. The Fed initiated the first increase in March, but inflation did not peak until June at 9.1%. Monthly CPI was unchanged the following month. However, the slowdown was solely due to a sharp decline in gasoline price, not attributable to the Fed. Core CPI topped 6.6% in September, then subsequently moved lower to 6.3%, 6.0% and 5.7% in the fourth quarter. October was the first month when core inflation reverses its rising path. This is where I mark the start of inflation response to monetary tightening. Once the Fed reaches its terminal rate, the force of inertia would carry the policy impact on inflation for several more months. That’s why the Fed is likely to keep the rate unchanged for the remainder of 2023, measuring the policy effect. Fixed Income Investment Opportunities On “The Real Cost of Fed Rate Hikes”, published on July 25th, I spelled out the impact of interest rate increases to households, corporations, Federal and local governments. With the risk-free rate expected to reach 5%, all borrowing cost will go up further, even after they rose significantly last year. As the economy slows down, those with high debt loads may not make it through this downturn. If you plan on investing in bonds, default risk should be on the very top of your mind. Consider safe play: Avoid any issuer with a high debt-to-equity ratio. Corporate high-yield, municipal bonds, and securities backed by adjustable-rate mortgages and credit card balance fit this bill. JPMorgan Chase took notice. On Friday the 13th, JPM NYSE:JPM posted revenue that beat expectations, but the biggest US bank warned it was setting aside more money to cover credit losses because of a “mild recession” is its “central case.” The bank posted a $2.3 billion provision for credit losses in Q4, a 49% increase from the 3rd quarter. For relatively safe investment options, bank certificates of deposits (Jumbo CD) and high-quality corporate bonds (rated A or above) offer yields from 4.50% to 6.0%. They could beat inflation in the coming years. Spread Trade Opportunities We have been in a negative yield-curve environment since July. In my opinion, slower rate hikes weaken the force that drives short-term yield rising faster than long-term ones. Once the Fed actions are over, mean reversion could occur so long as we do not fall into a deep recession. A Refresher: Yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds with different maturity dates, notably 3-month Treasury Bills, 2-year and 10-year Treasury Notes, 15-year and 30-year Treasury Bonds. Bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on long-term debt are normally higher than those on short-term. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line. Sometimes short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That negative relationship is called yield curve inversion. An inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century, so it’s seen as a leading indicator of economic downturn. On January 12th, 2-year T-note is quoted at 4.20% in cash market, while the 10-year T-note is priced at 3.61%. This measures the 10Y-2Y yield spread at 59 basis points. The negative yield curve could become less inverted, then change to a flat yield curve in the coming months. It could reverse back to an upward sloping normal yield curve in 2024. Here are my reasoning: • Easy money created by record government spending kept the borrowing cost low. This was a main reason why longer-term yields rise less than short-term ones. • The new Republican-controlled Congress would stall the approval of big-ticket expenditure bills. Closing the flood gate could bring the borrowing cost back up. • After the depletion of low-cost capital, lenders will have no choice but to raise the long-term lending rate above the short-term deposit rate. CBOT Micro Yield Futures offer a way to express your view on future yield direction. You could also observe how the expected yield spread changes between 10Y and 2Y. On January 12th, February Micro 10Y Yield Futures (10YG3) was settled at 3.446. February Micro 2Y Yield Futures (2YYG3) was settled at 4.081. The 10Y-2Y spread is -63.5 basis points. Micro Yield Futures are notional at 1,000 index point, with each point equal to 1/10 of 1 basis point and value at $1. For example, if the 10Y-2Y spread narrows to -40 basis points, your position would gain $235 (= (-40+63.5) x 10) if you long the spread. To trade Micro Yield futures, margins are $375 for 10Y and 2YY. A long spread can be constructed by a Long 10Y and a Short 2YY positions. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZQ1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
3
INFLATION RATE AND BTC MOONHello Traders As you know, the inflation rate decreased to 6% in the past day, this news created a significant bullish movement for Bitcoin Price, but don't get FOMO, Yet. As you can see Bitcoin's overall Technical shows that, the price is still in a bearish phase in the bigger picture, and is currently on an excellent resistance level, both Dynamic and static. On the Onchan side, I screenshotted a metric called Net realized Profit/Loss, Net Realized Profit/Loss is the net profit or loss of all moved coins, the value shows that the whole network was moving their bitcoins in profits today, which can cause a reversal in the bullish trend. Overall I can see a Correction or consolidation for bitcoin before the bullish phase. Note that this is an Intraday analysis and is only valid for a couple of days or even hours. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the boost button and follow me so you will get the updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Good luck.
by Crypto_MD
2
Rally into 2023? Likely rally into 2023, spurred by downward trend in inflation. Likely 25bp hike at next meeting, then full stop to evaluate the damage (and give time for lagging economic data to catch up to policy changes). Unemployment will rise, possibly some deflation, and fed will cut rates towards the end of 2023 in response to negative economic data. This will cause a second drawdown. Well, the rates will be correlated with a second drawdown, but the real correlation will be between the negative data and equities. My initial thoughts as we move into a new year. Should be an interesting one. Love, InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by InTheMoneyAdam
8
ES - S&P 500 Retest and Down We GoWith the "cooked" CPI, let us examine the ES Chart. 1. The dotted yellow TL's show the OVERShoot and UNDERShoot, which are perfectly in line with the Medianlines. 2. Price was going up from the Zero to Five Count and broke the confirmed Pivot 4. This leads into a potential new start of the next Downtrend. 3. From the red 1, up to where we are now (2023/01/12), this looks like a perfect market manipulation in line with the CPI. However, with or without CPI, we see where price bangs it's head to day on a intraday view. Right at the U-MLH. We could either get a hard rejection from here, or price even get's pushed up to the yellow sliding parallel. 4. The Stochastic also shows a negative sign since price got pushed up to the U-MLH. If your backtest this Oscillator, then you know that most of the time there's a push in the opposite side before price synchronizes. Or in short: Watch the Rocket Man §8-) Stay save and trade with Brain.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
BTC US CPI DAY JANUARYHello dear traders, we have CPI DAY BTC took an incredible flight upwards yesterday at the end of the US session and did not give us a chance to catch this good trend Today's CPI rules - if we hold $17800 we go up to at least $19079 and higher I see the strongest support as the $17900 level below which when the whole candle closes on the 30 minute chart can start a bearish trend right away I will open LONG somewhere between $18000 to $17900 if we even look there, CPI is in about 25 minutes
Long
by Crypto-Frantisek
SPX - We are still within the range!SPX - We are still within the range! SPX - For most indices we've had bullish momentum especially in Europe side cac, ftse, dax amazing moves but we are still struggling when it comes to US Indices. We've had great bullish momentum at the end of the week now let's not get too excited we are still within the ranges things to keep in mind this week going forward CPI, Q4 earnings, Unemployment claims coming out of US. Key tip: Ignore the noise and focus on the chart in front of you. Everyone has opinions, they'll even comment on your career choice but most importantly only YOU can learn and earn by the execution of your own trades. A break to either direction. Trade Journal
SP:SPX
by Trade_Journal
4
Will US CPI continue to feed the risk rally?Eyes on today's CPI Risk markets set the tone on Wednesday as traders reacted to hopes that Today’s CPI data will come in lower than expected. This could lead to small interest rate hikes and could even signal peak inflation. We’re anticipating tonight’s data and if it will live up to the hype. How much has been factored in? Could it be a disappointment if it fails to meet what’s being expected? It is simple. We see a solid beat to the downside we think risk markets will continue to rally. We see it come in as expected, or god forbid higher, and we think they will fall. We have done a quick price action review on the USD index and US30. Major risk currencies look to be consolidating at this stage in the lead-up. The USD index is trying to hold out at 103.00. US CPI data is due today at 12:30 am AEDT / 8:30 am ET.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
Joe Gun2Head Trade - USDCHF into resistance. Highly speculative.Trade Idea: Selling USDCHF Reasoning: Double top on the weekly chart. Into intraday resistance. Highly speculative ahead of CPI at 1:30Uk. Entry Level: 0.93382 Take Profit Level: 0.9167 Stop Loss: 0.9398 Risk/Reward: 2.82:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
2