CPI vs. Core CPI: The Gold Market MoversConsumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI are key economic indicators that significantly impact XAUUSD (gold prices). CPI measures the overall change in consumer prices for goods and services, reflecting inflation’s pace. Core CPI, however, excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. When CPI or Core CPI figures are higher than expected, it signals rising inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates. This typically strengthens the US dollar and puts downward pressure on XAUUSD, as gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, lower-than-expected inflation can weaken the dollar, driving up gold prices as investors seek inflation hedges and safe-haven assets. Traders closely monitor these releases to anticipate XAUUSD movements and adjust their strategies accordingly. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
CPI
Bad CPI, Perfect Setup Opportunity for the S&P500Today’s CPI was really bad: 3% vs. 2.9%. Bad for markets, good for the Dollar, and everything got slapped - S&P 500 included.
But honestly, moments like this are often where the magic happens. Zoom in, and you’ll notice that the Monday Low is still sitting there untouched. In a few minutes, the New York Stock Exchange opens. What am I hoping for? A sweep of that Low, followed by a quick reversal and a push to the upside.
On the 1-hour chart, the RSI is already in oversold territory. A sell-off at the open would be the perfect entry, aiming for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. If the market plays along, this could get real interesting real fast.
🔹 Asset: S&P 500
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
🔹 Entry: 5974.60
🔹 Stop: 5936.90
🔹 Target(s): 6085.86
EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety.
Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks.
Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war.
Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹At Swing Premium
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS.
🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low.
🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High.
🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback.
🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
XAUUSD Trade Log
🚨 XAUUSD Long Zones: High-Probability Entries 🚨
Gold has been on a strong move, but smart money doesn’t chase— TDV traders wait for prime entries.
🔴 First Long Entry: A swing long opportunity where I’ll get in but move to break-even fast. Why? The real opportunity is lower.
🔴 Bad Boy Entry: This is where I’ll scale in aggressively, with:
✅ Daily discount level
✅ Weekly Break of Structure (BOS)
✅ Confluence of daily & hourly levels
For risk:
⚡ 2% for prop traders
⚡ 5% for personal equity accounts
This is how TDV plays the game—strategic, calculated, and ahead of the herd.
USOIL Trade Log - CPI Session
USOIL Short Trade Setup – CPI Session Incoming 🚨
- Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL)
- Timeframe: 4-Hour
- Risk: 1% max due to CPI volatility
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Minimum 1:2
Key Technical Analysis:
1. Price has reached a strong resistance zone within the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is showing signs of rejection.
2. The Kijun Weekly and 4H levels align with this area, increasing the probability of a reversal.
3. Market structure has been bearish overall, with a clear Break of Structure (BOS) and internal liquidity grabs.
CPI Session Volatility Warning:
- With the CPI release incoming, expect aggressive moves and potential liquidity sweeps before directional commitment.
- If price runs liquidity above the FVG and shows strong bearish confirmations, this becomes a high-probability short.
- Manage risk carefully – no need to overexpose with CPI in play.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: Within the 4H FVG upon bearish confirmation.
- Stop Loss: Above the FVG high to avoid CPI wicks.
- Take Profit: At least 1:2 RRR, ideally targeting recent lows.
Stay sharp, play the reaction, and don’t force the trade if the setup invalidates. CPI is where weak hands get rinsed! 💀
US100 Trade Log - CPI Pre-ShotUS100 long ahead of "CPI release" , pre-shot long for Asia session.
- Entry at "1H Kijun" and deep into "15m FVG" , aligning with pre-triangle accumulation.
- Structure is "hyper discretionary" but leans into my bullish bias.
- "Max pain: 2%" , treating this as a CPI momentum trade.
- If price respects the level, expecting an upside expansion. If not, I eat the loss.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Wednesday, Feb 12:
🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM.
📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM.
📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%.
📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan):
Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET):
Previous: +8.664M.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.9%
(January/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US likely held steady at 2.9% in January 2025, matching December’s figure, which was the highest since July.
On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3%, slowing from 0.4% in December, with food and energy prices continuing to increase, particularly natural gas.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is anticipated to decline for a second consecutive month to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021.
In contrast, monthly core inflation is projected to edge up to 0.3% from 0.2% in December, driven primarily by an increase in new and used car prices.
GBP/NZD: Bearish Outlook Confirmed by Head and ShouldersThe GBP/NZD exchange rate at NZ$2.1922 reflects a persistent downtrend, confirming recent weakness in the British Pound against major counterparts. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside risk, with the pair testing key support levels. Market fluctuations between NZ$2.1754 and NZ$2.22 highlight ongoing volatility driven by external economic factors, including U.S. tariffs and mixed macroeconomic data from both the UK and New Zealand. The Pound remains under pressure due to inflation concerns and lackluster GDP growth, while the NZD struggles to capitalize on the Pound’s weakness amid subdued domestic data. The technical setup and broader macroeconomic landscape signal a potential continuation of bearish momentum for GBP/NZD.
Australia dollar eyes confidence dataThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6275, up 0.60% on the day.
Australia releases business and consumer confidence on Tuesday, with the markets expecting some improvement. Westpac Consumer Sentiment is expected to rebound and gain 0.4% in February after a 0.7% decline in January. The National Australian Bank business confidence index is projected to improve to zero in January, after a -2 reading in December.
China's inflation was a mix, as consumer inflation rose to a five-month high while producer inflation continued to decline. CPI jumped 0.5% y/y in January, up from 0.1% in December and above the market estimate of 0.4%. This was the highest level since August. Monthly CPI rose 0.7%, up sharply from zero in December and an 11-month high, but shy of the market estimate of 0.8%
The producer price index fell 2.3% y/y in January unchanged from December and deeper than the market estimate of 2.1%. This points to deflation which is likely to worsen if the trade war between the US and China continues. On Monday, China's retaliatory tariffs kicked in after the US hit China with tariffs last week.
US nonfarm payrolls decelerate, unemployment falls
US nonfarm payrolls eased to 143 thousand in January, shy of the market estimate of 175 thousand. Still, there weres signs of strength in the labor market - nonfarm payrolls were revised by 100 thousand in the previous two months and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4% from 4.1%, below the market estimate of 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, up from 0.3% in December and above the market estimate of 0.5%. Annually, average hourly earnings rose 4.1%, unchanged from the revised December reading and above the market estimate of 3.8%. The generally positive employment report supports the case for the Federal Reserve continuing to hold rates, possibly until the third quarter. Just a few months ago, it appeared that the Fed would stay aggressive and continue lowering rates into 2025, but with the economy purring along we might see only one or two rate cuts this year.
There is resistance at 0.6351 and 0.6430
There is support at 0.6220 and 0.6141
10/02/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,496.97
Last weeks low: $91,204.00
Midpoint: $96,850.48
Another week of Bitcoin within the range and another one begins. With a very familiar low of ~$91K holding for the 10th week running (since the end of NOV '24), with a weekly high of $102,500 (last weekly outlooks midpoint) capping off the highs, will this weeks midpoint also act as the pivatol level? So far the midpoint has been reclaimed, a retest should add confluence to this.
We have a midweek CPI data release with a forecast 0.0% change remaining at 2.9%. These data events often cause LTF volatility and so that should be taken into account, the same is true for PPI on Friday.
Currently the market sentiment is pretty dire, the fear & greed index is at 43, the lowest since before the US Presidential Election.
Altcoins are struggling across the board, with the exception of some CEX coins all large-midcaps are below the 4H 200 EMA. I think that will change if BTC has a strong rally back above the weekly high and reclaims it, that will give the bulls the chance to finally break the $106K brick wall and flip from a rangebound environment into a trending environment again, altcoins would rally very well if this were to happen.
On the other hand is the midpoint is lost then the weekly low will need to hold for the 11th week running.
Good luck traders!
SELL DXYDXY Bearish Setup – Weekly High on Monday
This week, we anticipate DXY to set its high on Monday, followed by a sell-off. Short from 108.137, targeting 106.912 and 105.697, with a stop above 108.836. With CPI & PPI releases ahead, volatility is expected, but the bias remains bearish. A break below key support could accelerate downside momentum.
Use proper risk management.
Best of luck to you all.
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate Highest in Near 2 YearsECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
(December/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in November,
marking the highest reading since January 2023 as food prices rose the most in a year.
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate climbed to a 16-month peak of 3%, in line with estimates.
13/01/25 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $102,745.89
Last weeks low: $91,200.80
Midpoint: $96,973.35
A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO.
The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time.
At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected.
This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
Dollar strength stopped as December CPI cools
The dollar retreated further as the deceleration in core CPI for Dec increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in June FOMC rose to 67% from 57%. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stressed that inflation is approaching the 2% target again and price pressures were continuing to slow.
Failed to hold EMA21, DXY consolidates near the 109.00 threshold. The index briefly broke below EMA78 and the trendline, indicating the possibility of a bearish transition. If DXY fails to hold EMA78 and the trendline, the index may fall further to the support at 108.30. Conversely, if DXY breaches above EMA21, the index could regain upward momentum toward the 110.15 high.
$USIRYYY -U.S Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
December/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated for the third consecutive month to 2.9% in December, as expected.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.
However, annual core inflation slightly decreased to 3.2% from 3.3%, below the anticipated 3.3%. The monthly core rate also eased to 0.2% from 0.3%, in line with expectations.
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
December/2024
source: Office for National Statistics
-Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November.
Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels.
Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%).
Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%.
The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
Cool +168% move $0.54 to $1.45 in 2 hours premarket $SGBXForget about market moving 1% on CPI news if you've got a stock like NASDAQ:SGBX moving 100% or 200%, taking a piece of the action at the safe spot in & out then moving on to the next one and repeating until you've got more money than you know what to do with
XAUUSD - The CPI index will determine the gold path!Gold is located in a 4 -hour timeframe above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. If weaken in CPI data and market concerns about inflation, gold buying opportunities.
The release of the headline stronger than the expectation of the CPI will result in the uptrend and decrease in gold. But in the secondary wave it will result in gold climbing.
Gold prices have reached their highest levels in approximately four weeks, nearing the $2,700 range. Recent changes in stock markets and concerns over U.S. economic policies have driven increased demand for gold. Several key factors have contributed to the recent price surges. First, rising global tensions, particularly involving major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China, have destabilized financial markets, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset to shield against potential crises. Second, persistent concerns about inflation in major economies have made gold an attractive option for preserving purchasing power. Additionally, central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, boosting demand. Finally, expectations of interest rate cuts or potential easing by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have further enhanced gold’s appeal.
Gold prices have previously experienced sharp declines. Between 2011 and 2015, gold lost nearly 45% of its value, falling from its peak of $1,920 per ounce to $1,050 per ounce, driven by a strong dollar, rising interest rates, and an improving economy. Beyond this historical context, other scenarios could also lead to a 30% decline in gold prices. For instance, if the Federal Reserve adopts unexpectedly aggressive monetary policies and raises interest rates faster than anticipated, the strengthening dollar would exert downward pressure on gold prices.
A sudden increase in gold supply could also push prices lower, whether due to the discovery of new reserves or the sale of gold holdings by central banks or large institutions. Moreover, robust improvements in global economies alongside geopolitical stability could dampen demand for gold. Finally, growing investor interest in alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies or other commodities, could diminish gold’s perceived value.
Paul Williams, CEO of Solomon Global, has forecasted that the factors driving 39 record-breaking gold price highs last year remain intact and could support further price growth in 2025. In his report, Williams stated: “The year 2024 reinforced gold’s role as a timeless and safe asset. In a world filled with geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties, gold has provided stability and security for investors. The record highs achieved in 2024 reflect not only market conditions but also a broader sense of caution and risk mitigation among investors. This trend appears poised to continue into 2025.”
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal has released predictions from 17 economists on U.S. inflation data set to be announced on Wednesday, January 15, 2025. In 2024, the Federal Reserve made limited progress in curbing inflation, with most inflation indicators only slightly declining from the start of the year. Although policymakers had hoped inflation would approach the 2% target, persistent inflationary pressures have kept it near 3%.
However, November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offered a glimmer of hope. Prices in sectors such as housing and services, which have been major drivers of persistent inflation, have begun to ease. This may lead to an unexpected decline in Wednesday’s CPI data, although more significant decreases are likely in early 2025.
Analysts predict a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% forecast from the Federal Reserve Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast model. According to these projections, annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% in November.
Given that markets currently price in only two 25-basis-point rate cuts for all of 2025, a strong CPI report may not elicit a major market reaction. However, if CPI data comes in weaker than expected, the U.S. dollar could face selling pressure.
XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the release of the CPI index!Silver is in a 4 -hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50, moving in its upside channel. If you continue the decline, we can see the channel floor failure and a limited support. Silver stabilization above the resistance range will provide us with silver climbing route to the supply zone, where we can sell at a proper risk.
The U.S. employment report for December disrupted expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a key market driver. Job creation surged by 256,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
This data triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, the highest level since 2023. Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, which could face headwinds if inflation accelerates. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until at least June, a notable shift from earlier forecasts anticipating rate reductions in spring. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could further delay this timeline, strengthening the dollar and potentially putting pressure on silver prices.
Silver’s industrial role continues to support its prices, driven by robust global demand in industries like solar energy and electronics.The production of solar panels, a major consumer of silver, remains a key driver, while geopolitical and inflationary risks have boosted silver’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Gold’s stability in a high-yield environment has indirectly supported silver as well. Amid stock market volatility, investors have turned to both precious metals. The S&P 500 has declined by 1% year-to-date. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump have increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, speculation around Trump’s potential policies, including tariffs and spending programs, has heightened market uncertainty. Markets are grappling with whether these measures will stoke inflation or negatively impact growth, creating mixed conditions for silver.
Major global banks are revising their forecasts for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bank of America has stated it no longer expects any rate cuts in 2025. The bank believes the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has ended and sees the next move as more likely to be a rate hike.
Citi has also updated its projections, announcing that it no longer anticipates a Fed rate cut in January. The bank now forecasts a potential rate reduction in May.
Deutsche Bank has similarly noted that the Fed is unlikely to lower rates in the near term. The bank believes the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with future actions heavily dependent on incoming economic data.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will implement two 0.25% rate cuts in June and December, totaling 0.5% for the year. This marks a revision from its earlier forecast of a 0.75% reduction.
Finally, Morgan Stanley has indicated that the likelihood of a near-term rate cut has diminished. However, the bank still considers a rate cut in March plausible due to an improving inflation outlook.
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160.
Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets.
Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025.
An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation.
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025.
Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period.
Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets.
Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong.
Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction.
Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees.
Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.