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USD/JPY implied volatility rallies ahead of US inflation There are two tell tale signs that an important event is looming; realised volatility has died a quiet death whilst implied volatility has sprung alive. For all FX majors, 1-day implied volatility is currently higher than 1-week implied volatility, which means options traders estimate volatility over the next 24-hours to be greater than the next five days. Today is clearly all about the US inflation report, where another hot print is expected. Core CPI is expected to rise to 6.5% and match its 40-year high set in June, whilst CPI is expected to soften to 8.1% y/y – thanks to lower energy prices which OPEC are doing their best to support. With markets fully braced for another hot CPI – which will no doubt prompt a bullish response for the dollar if true, there is little talk of it missing expectations. And that could arguably prompt a more volatile response should it come in slightly softer. And speaking of volatility, implied vols for forex are screaming higher whilst USD/JPY trades within a miniscule range around its 24-year high. USD/JPY remains within a strong uptrend on the 1-hour chart, and trades within a tight consolidation just off its 24-year high. There’s been little in the way of jawboning from the MOF since prices broke above the previous intervention high, and the BOJ’s Kuroda has once again given a weak yen the thumbs-up – so long as its demise is not too volatile. A break above 147 confirms a bull-flag breakout and assumes trend continuation toward the 147..65 high – but given the historical significance of this level, it could prompt a shakeout has traders book profits or even fade the move. Should prices move initially lower then bulls could consider dips, but if CPI is to come in softer than expected then bears would likely drive this pair much lower.
Long
by CityIndex
2
It's Time for Everyones Favorite Show "Has Inflation Peaked?"Thank you Vanna! Show our contestants what they can win! Should you choose inflation has peaked, you stand to win an all expense paid short covering rally to 3900 ... *Crowd Cheers* Conversely, If you choose that inflation has not peaked, you'll win front row seats to the public execution of the global financial systems... *Crowd Goes Bananas* Choose Wisely! Not Financial Advice. Only a clock is guaranteed to be right 2 times in a day.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
12
SPY double diamond in 1H chart w/ divergence near Oct lowSPY formed 2 diamond patterns as seen in this hourly chart. It formed slight RSI positive divergence near the Oct low. However, this divergence may still get lower to reach 3500, an impt Fibonacci level, more so if the CPI report come out higher tomorrow. Weekly wma 200 still the line in the sand. The next major catalysts this week are Thursday”s CPI data & bank earnings. Start of earnings season will usher in more volatility next week due to the fear of earnings recession. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPY
by xtremerider8
GBP/USD Probability for 13/10/22 15min TFI mention that till Fri we can expect consolidation and I think that is what is going to happen today. I'll watch out for CPI news at 8.30 NY time. I think that due to the increase in interest rate last month, inflation will start to decrease which means $$$ will get stronger and other currencies weaker. I'll expect sharp move to downside at 8.30 first and price will slowly go up after that with another 0.30% to 0.50% to take home. Let's see if that plays out.
by TradingtoFreedom22
4
Important news for EURUSD are coming upToday, we have the Consumer Price Index results for September. This is an important event that will bring some volatility. The best opportunities will come after the news! A breakout above 0,9774 will probably take price towards 1,0000! A breakout below 0,9669 will most likely mean a continuation of the downside move! We are probably going to see some tricky moves and stop loss hunting during the first few minutes of the news but remember that patience is required!
by ForexTrendline
3
[10/13] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Analysis Bitcoin analysis. Today, I'm going to talk about the future direction in Elliott Wave Analysis. Bitcoin is moving up and down in a very large box from a big perspective, so it is very difficult to analyze, so I think the response is very important. First, I set the start of the wave at the high point of 20470. The green wave is the main wave I think the impulse pulsation was carried out from 204 to 188 It seems to fit well with the wedge-shaped leading diamond formed in the estimated 3-1 wave, the strong trading volume at 3-3 waves, and the running triangle convergence at 4 waves. In general, this is where the short-term rebound comes from. (ABC) (If it is short-term, it is likely to be up to 19480) But, although it's kind of rebounded to some extent with the last low update, it's moving back and forth from the low point to the top and the bottom again, drawing a convergent form. The convergence form is a pattern that usually appears in four waves, so there may be one more wave drop left. Also, there's a five-wave extension, which means that the five waves appear unusually long and form strong waves, which in this picture means that suddenly a sharp drop occurs. Therefore, we should continue to doubt the decline, and we recommend short position-oriented responses rather than taking long positions for a short-term rebound, and if it comes up, it would be better to take a short position. + There is a CPI announcement today. The NASDAQ (U.S.) market is likely to take it very sensitively because the economic situation is not good. There was a ppi (Producer Consumption Index) announcement yesterday, but the volatility was not as high as I thought yesterday. Everyone is paying attention to the cpi today, so make sure to adjust the weight/scale, organize your positions before the announcement, and then look at the situation and enter the position as a chase
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
1
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 13BTC is about to leave the downward channel. If CPI is lower than expected, it will jump out of the channel; otherwise, BTC drops and prolongs the movement within the channel. Strength is contracting, cultivating a breakout that is likely to happen upon the release of CPI. Yesterday BTC ran between the speculative area at $18798.44 and intraday resistance at $19275.64. The capital inflow held the pressure from bears. This will keep going until a high volatility moment at 20:30(UTC+8). As volume shrinks, intraday support and resistance are fragile today, which is more prominent as the release time approaches. Use today’s intraday target points prudently. The expected CPI figure is 8.1%: if data <8.1%, BTC rebounds If data >8.1%, BTC drops If data =8.1%, BTC goes sideway The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(15.2%),50bp(84.8%)
by BitMidas
1
USD Focus Fed Minutes USD CPIHi, and welcome to Wednesday’s update. Today we are looking at the USD, and it’s hard not to focus on the dollar with all the key news that’s on the way. From tonight, 11:30 local time (AEDT), we have PPI followed by the Fed minutes at 5:00 am and US CPI data at 11:30 pm to cap it off. The CPI data being released will be both the M/M EXP 0.2% and the Y/Y EXP 8.1%. This could be an important period for the markets. The last Fed minutes shocked the markets, and CPI came in hotter than expected. These surprises led to extended moves lower on risk markets and solid a rally on the USD. Will we see a repeat this time? As noted, it is going to come down to what’s released. CPI beats expectations. Fed remains hawkish we see the USD rallying. If CPI misses and the Fed message is not as hard as we have seen, we could see some selling and a move higher from risk markets like we saw just over a week ago. Are we starting to see a small bull trap on the USD? Don't discount the chance of softer minutes or a CPI miss that rattles the cage. It is definitely going to be an interesting period to watch traders from now until Thursday night local time. We like to hear from you, so please feel free to drop us a comment. We also run weekly webinars with guest analysts. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USDX
by Eightcap
Bitcoin Trend Analytics October 12Similar to the analysis yesterday, BTC is about to leave the channel and develop into new sideway patterns. Yesterday BTC went down to test $18798.44, with short-term capital inflow. The price dropped with increasing fund outflow and in the next 5 hours saw small capital inflow. The latter is larger than the former, so the price is kept at this level. But the inflow is not enough to form a reversal at the moment. Monitor this area - if the support is broken down, BTC could slide down. Set protections. $19882.81 is still a battleground. Only by taking hold of it could it reach neutral or the movement is still bearish. Now the price is pegged to 19k with shrinking volumes. BTC could possibly survive the release of CPI . The market expected interest rate hike in November: 75bp(77.7%),50bp(22.3%)
by BitMidas
1
SPX500 is trying to find a bottomIn my opinion the market is trying to find a bottom. How far it will go down, Im not sure, but anything lower that 3450-ish, will take market to very oversold territory. Everyone is waiting for Thursday’s CPI, depending on the result this can go either way: 1. Inflation is rising - this means FED will be rise rates by 0.75 in November, strong move downside, but then it to go to oversold territory and we might stay there few days before slow recovery starts. I dont believe the earning season takes market above 4000. More realisticaly 3900-3950. 2. Inflation is going down- rising rates start to do the job, FED might slow down next month but we’re not out of the woods yet. Economies already slowed down, we might see recovery on the markets and USD to cool off a little. The only difference between 1 and 2 is when we start the recovery- this or next week. If you look at the VIX, it is pretty high, over 30. On a brick of being overbought. That makes me believe we can see some green candles in the next few weeks but after that I expect very red November. I can be wrong, the markets are unpredictable so dont treat it as trading advice. Im not a professional trader but I’ve been following indices closely in the last few months. Always do your own analisys
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Trinnisia_Trades
Inflation & Interest Rate Series – Below 5.3% is Crucial for CPIContent: • Why CPI must be below 5.3%? • Can we invest or trade or hedge into inflation? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Stay tuned for our next episode in this series, we will discuss more on the insight of inflation and rising interest rates. More importantly, how to use this knowledge, turning it to our advantage in these challenging times for all of us. Micro 5-Year Yield Futures 1/10 of 1bp = US$1 or 0.001% = US$1 3.000% to 3.050% = US$50 3.000% to 4.000% = US$1,000 See below ideas on the previous videos for this series.
CBOT_MINI:5YYU2022Education
by konhow
3
AUD/USD falls to new 18-month lowAUD/USD continues to lose ground and can't find its footing. The Aussie started the week on the wrong foot, with a decline of 1.0% on Monday. In today's European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266 down 0.52%. Earlier the day, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6247, its lowest level since April 2020. Australia has posted weak numbers this week, adding to the downward pressure on the ailing Australian dollar. The Services PMI fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.0 in September, down from 53.3 in August, as the uncertain economic outlook is weighing on business activity. Business confidence levels are down, with NAB business confidence slowing to 5 in September, down from 10 in August. Westpac Consumer Sentiment indicated that consumers are also in a sour mood, with a reading of -0.9% in September after a gain of 3.9% in August, which was the sole gain over the past 11 months. Risk appetite has been dampened by the escalating crisis in the Ukraine war, with Russia annexing parts of occupied Ukraine and firing missiles at civilian targets. As well, the energy crisis is looming over Western Europe, just weeks ahead of winter. This is weighing on the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. In the US, inflation releases have taken on added significance, as the Federal Reserve has designated soaring inflation as public enemy number one. The US releases PPI data on Wednesday and CPI a day later. Headline inflation has dropped over the past two months, but remains at 8.3%. Unless headline and core inflation both surprise with much lower readings than expected, I don't anticipate any change in course from the Fed. If inflation underperforms, the US dollar could lose ground. Conversely, a higher-than-expected inflation report would be bullish for the US dollar. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6503 in the Asian session. The next resistance line is 0.6607 There is support at 0.6433 and 0.6329
by OANDA
Will GDP shake up GBP/USD?GBP/USD is trading quietly for a second straight day. In the North European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1035, down 0.18%. The pound has not posted a winning day since October 12th and has lost 400 points during that time. GBP/USD dropped below the symbolic 1.10 line earlier today, and a break below 1.10 will likely increase talk of the pound following the euro and dropping to parity with the dollar. The UK labour market is one of the few bright spots in the economy, and today's employment report reaffirmed that the job market remains tight. Unemployment in the three months to August dipped to 3.5%, down from 3.6%, while average earnings jumped to 6.0%, up from 5.5% and ahead of the consensus of 5.9%. These rosy numbers are dampened by an inflation rate of 9.9%, which has badly hurt real UK incomes. The strong job market bolsters the likelihood of the Bank of England will deliver some tough medicine at its November meeting, perhaps a super-size rate hike of 1.0%. The BoE was forced to intervene on an emergency basis after the mini-budget almost caused a bond market crash, and investors have circled October 14th, which is the expiry date of the BoE's gilt-buying intervention. There are concerns that if the BoE does not renew its bond-buying, the result could be another exodus from UK government bonds. On Wednesday, the UK releases GDP for August, which is expected at 0% MoM, down from 0.2% in July. In the US, inflation will be in focus this week, with PPI data on Wednesday and CPI a day later. Headline inflation is expected to fall to 8.1% in September, down from 8.3% in August, but core CPI is expected to rise to 6.5%, up from 6.3%. Unless inflation surprises sharply to the downside, the release will not cause the Fed to rethink its hawkish policy. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1085 and 1.1214 There is resistance at 1.0935 and 1.0776
by OANDA