US03MY increases more, Markets surprised at CPI data !?😲CPI the Core inflation, which is the focus of most traders, rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July.
Although the US inflation decreased in August; But it was still higher than economists had expected, signaling that the US Federal Reserve will remain aggressive in raising interest rates.
Also Eight days before the new Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, the 3-month bond yield has increased by 0.75% in the transactions so far.
After announcing the inflation data, the yields of government bonds with different maturities increased by +6%.
The point being that the 3month is highly correlated to the federal funds rate,
It seems ,the Federal Funds Rate continues to rise , likely at a more modest pace and maybe with less regularity.
-------------------------------
Bond Yields:
The yield on a government bond is the interest rate that the government borrows at. Government bonds, because they are safe, therefore tend to have a lower yield because investors are not demanding a high rate of interest for lending to the government.
Bond yield is the return an investor realizes on an investment in a bond.
A bond can be purchased for more than its face value, at a premium, or less than its face value, at a discount .
The current yield is the bond's coupon rate divided by its market price.
Price and yield are inversely related and as the price of a bond goes up, its yield goes down.
-------------------------------
This Economic informations update is provided for informational purposes only .
✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
💚 if you're fan of my analyses please follow me , drop a comment 🗯 and Boost me 🚀🚀
CPI
NASDAQ Island Reversal on HourlyPicture perfect island reversal following higher than projected CPI figures. I'm thinking the bear market relief rally is complete.
Bought a little SQQQ on Friday 9/9 which was a day too early.
I think we'll have a strong downtrend in the near term at least until the Sept FOMC meeting.
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday.
After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes.
News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends.
Stay tuned.
USDCAD Short from Resistance!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**USDCAD - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!
Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
EURUSD It will rise from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**EURUSD - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!
Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
XAUUSD : Target Reached ✅ +380 Pips ✅Well, Guys , as you can see, the price entered our appealing supply range ($ 1735) and started to fall exactly from the same range! The total profit of this analysis has so far been more than 380 pips ✅ , Cheers 🥂
Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.13.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
eurusd Euro has the target of 1.02031 and above.
but its the matter of timing because of CPI news driver
1st scenario: if before before news we didnt get up there and CPI shadowed down , after punishing sellers expect rally to 1.02031
2nd scenario: if before news or at news release we got there , we can expect significant lower prices
caution: expect lots of volatility at CPI news driver
Groundhog DayIt feels like groundhog day whenever CPI prints roll around.
Last time on our game of "Has Inflation Peaked?" the Fed was confident inflation was going to decline MOM.
But we see things outside the FEDs box and realize that inflation is in fact sticky
I'm still counting on 4005 to remain supportive.
There is a gap back down to 3905.
Should 3905 fall, big hedges like JHEQX could flip negative gamma and accelerate a decline to ~3200 and a VIX ~40.
DXY Weakens, Awaits CPIThe US dollar has edged lower, breaking through 108.50. We are now in the (fairly wide) vacuum zone to 107.20. It does look like we are finding support just above 107.20. It is expected that CPI today at 8:30 AM EST will suggest that inflation is plateauing, therefore the Fed can ease their hawkish rhetoric. Easier monetary policy would hit the dollar hard, as its been benefiting from higher yields this quarter. If we can rally, 108.50 will be a target, if we reject current levels 107.20 should provide support.
Where are commodities heading to? Beyond 2022Where are the meat or commodity prices heading?
Meat prices have been rising at a rate of about 3% per annual over the last 40 years.
Meat is what I classified as an edible commodity, so is corn, wheat and rice. And as these commodities start picking up in prices, they are the one that will give the central banks a huge headache and to consider to hike its interest rates than the other commodities in the CPI basket.
Why is this so?
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars or petrol, but not without food. Therefore, there is an urgency for the policy makers to first take care of the basic needs of the people.
Content:
. Long-term direction of Live Cattle
. Trading ideas
. Investing ideas
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
A little hack here to project the coming CPI data and also to know how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rate hike - you may consider to track the development of these edible commodity prices, if it is still trending up, we should be expecting a higher CPI and interest rates.
Example on Live Cattle Futures:
0.025cts = US$10
0.10cts = US$40
145.00 = 1450 x US$40 = US$58,000
From 144 to 145 = US$400
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD
According to the analysis we gave to XAUUSS earlier, the TREND LINE BREAKED and UP about 160 PIPS. We hope you get it.
We have some very important NEWS coming to the USD this week, especially tomorrow. So we have to wait a bit until we get them. US INFLATION DATA to be released. Therefore, you should definitely pay attention to GOLD.
Anyway, with US10Y DOWN, GOLD is going up a bit now. Anyway, we expect that GOLD will go UP to 1794 LEVEL. After that GOLD can definitely go down to 1671 LEVEL. Be careful..
Pig Market: Why IDC about the CPI8.5 prior
8.1 expected
8.24 cleveland fed estimate
??? actual
Everyone is going crazy about this CPI data like its gonna change anything. We already know inflation has peaked and will start to decline. It's doing that because the economy is slowing. The fed is still hiking and the inflation isn't going to go away fast enough for a soft landing. The markets may adjust to the data tomorrow, but it's not going to change our destiny: a recession by end of year.
Find the next peak, sell it, or short it. This moon mission is cancelled and you'll be stranded in space.
Inflation is coming down. Will the markets now go up?Traders, talk about disinflation and a bull market seems contradictory. But is it? I'll explain why disinflationary indicators may mean we see the S&P at previous or even new highs going forward before we recede once again into a true bear market.
Has inflation really peaked? Not so sureWe have been inside this green triangle since 1915.
The downtrend line has been tested a few times and this is the first year it actually went past it and recently came down for a retest.
Hard to feel like inflation has peaked also considering oil is still in an uptrend and the Fed couldn't have been more hawkish in the last Powell's speech, so we may be up for a rough surprise in tomorrow's CPI report. The Fib retracement points at a possible 12.50-13.00% inflation read, let's see what we get.
Breaking UP! Eurodollar Futures.Is the Eurodollar giving us some hints into the mind of JPOW and the fed?