AUDJPY To Sell Watch AUD CPI News Tonight Tonight for AUD CPI news, there is a chance AUDJPY will drop in price. This is a great time to place a short as there is resistance in price that likely to drop.
TP: 97.00-97.5
CPI
$DXY - Bottom Range Bound BreachedThe Dollar Index TVC:DXY has breached a pretty serious
level ;
the bottom range bound which has previously acted as
strong support for TVC:DXY to bounce.
Will this time be the same and this will result in a fake-out?
Or will TVC:DXY headed lower, re-visiting pre-pandemic levels?
Check out the previous released ideas linked below
for more in depth information regarding our journey
'Decisive Move Around the Corner' (line chart)
(candlesticks chart)
TRADE SAFE
NOTE that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research before partaking upon
any trading activity based solely on this idea.
Inflation Pulls Back Again, Building Case for September Rate CutTakeaways
Inflation cools again: Consumer prices in the US increased just 2.9% in July compared to the previous year, the slowest mark in three years, according to the US Department of Labor.
Kamala Harris has overtaken Donald Trump in odds to win the US presidential election on Polymarket: Harris's campaign has reached out to the crypto industry, but it's unclear where she stands on regulating digital assets.
Three Arrows Capital’s liquidators have filed a $1.3 billion lawsuit against Terraform Labs: The suit, stemming from losses during the 2022 Terra network collapse, alleges market manipulation by Terraform.
Tether hit back at a $2.4 billion lawsuit from Celsius Network, deeming it unfounded and asserting its compliance with prior agreements: The dispute revolves around the liquidation of bitcoin assets to offset Celsius's debt.
US spot ETH ETFs experienced $4.9 million in net inflows on Monday, ending a three-day streak of outflows: Grayscale’s ETHE logged zero flows, while VanEck’s ETHV was the only ETF to report negative flows.
Grayscale has launched a new fund investing in MakerDAO’s governance token (MKR): The token saw a price increase following the announcement, with the fund structured as a closed-end product available to accredited investors.
Inflation Pulls Back Again, Building Case for September Rate Cut
The Consumer Price Index increased just 2.9% year-over-year in the US in July, giving the Federal Reserve ample reason to cut the benchmark federal funds rate at their next meeting in September. The Fed uses CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, as a key gauge to measure inflationary pressures on the economy. They have held rates at 5.3% since July 2023, the highest mark in roughly two decades.
Cryptocurrency prices had a muted reaction to the positive report Wednesday, with bitcoin and ether staying relatively flat. Both are widely viewed as “risk assets” that perform better when interest rates are lower. But bitcoin has faced continued selling pressure from defunct exchange Mt. Gox distributing billions in repayments to creditors. On Wednesday, a wallet associated with the US government sent almost $600 million bitcoin previously seized from Silk Road to a Coinbase Prime wallet.
Despite the recent volatility, bitcoin and ethereum have had a positive 2024 so far, rising 28.8% and 8.1% year-to-date, respectively.
🖼️ Topic of the Week: NFTs and the Art Industry: A Cryptoart Revolution
➡️ Read more here
Lowest headline CPI print since March 2021This is the first time since March 2021 that headline CPI has fallen as low as 2.9%.
U.S. Headline CPI
Rep: 2.9% ✅Lower than Expected✅
Exp: 3.0%
Prev: 3.0%
U.S Core CPI
Rep: 3.2%✅In line with Expectations✅
Exp: 3.2%
Prev: 3.3%
GOLD - at his ultimate resistance, holding or not??#GOLD.. so far perfect move as per our analysis, and now market at his ultimate resistance area that is around 2479 to 2484 around 5 points.
that region can change the scenarios of gold.
keep close it because if market it in that case you can see a drop towards your further downside areas that's are mentioned.
but keep in mind above resistance region keep cut n reverse in hand.
good luck
trade wisely
Gold Futures Rise to Near Record, as Market Prepares for CPIGold Futures Rise to Near Record, as Market Prepares for U.S. Inflation Data
Technical Analysis: Gold
Current Outlook: The price advanced as predicted, and to maintain the bullish trend, a break above the all-time high (ATH) of 2,475 is necessary to target 2,484 and 2,493.
Bullish Scenario:
The price needs to break above 2,475 by closing 4h candle to confirm a bullish trend towards 2,484 and 2,493. Surpassing this level could initiate a strong bullish movement.
Bearish Scenario:
Stabilization below 2,466 may trigger a decline to 2,450, indicating a potential for a strong bearish correction.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 2475
- Resistance Levels: 2484, 2493, 2525
- Support Levels: 2466, 2450, 2430
Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 2,484 and 2,450.
Tendency: Bearish Correction down to 2,450
Attention:
-Releasing CPI More than 3.00% or matches at 3.00% means will support bearish trend toward 2450 and 2432
-Less than 3.00% will support bullish to record a new all time-high
USNAS100 / Futures Hold Firm Ahead of Crucial Inflation DataFutures Hold Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Report
The price has surged, successfully hitting our targets with a gain of approximately 400 points
Next Outlook:
The upcoming movement will be influenced by the CPI report, with two potential scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the CPI is released below 3.00%, the bullish trend is likely to continue, aiming to break 19,200 and advance toward the next target of 19,530.
Bearish Scenario:
A CPI release above 3.00% could trigger a decline, with the price potentially falling toward 18,760 and 18,420.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 19100
- Resistance Levels: 19200, 19320, 19535
- Support Levels: 18760, 18420, 18020
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 19,200 and 18,420.
previous idea:
Market Awaits CPI Impact After Producer Prices Boost Equities Producer Prices Report Lifts Equities Ahead of CPI Data
The price has successfully reached all our previously mentioned targets, and today's movement will be heavily influenced by the CPI release.
Current Outlook:
As long as the price remains below 39,900 and 40,020, the trend indicates a potential downward movement.
Bullish Scenario:
If the CPI comes in below 3.00%, it will likely support a bullish trend, particularly if the price breaks above 40,050, with potential targets at 40,320.
Bearish Scenario:
A bearish outlook will be confirmed if the CPI matches or exceeds 3.00%, especially if the price stabilizes below 39,900, with potential declines to 39,620 and 39,260.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 39,780
- Resistance Levels: 39900, 40050, 40320
- Support Levels: 39620, 39260, 39120
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between support at 39,260 and resistance at 40,050.
previous idea:
CPI Report in Focus: Futures Steady, Key Levels to WatchFutures Steady Ahead of Key Inflation Report
The price has pushed up and reached our target successfully, with momentum still aiming for 5,460 and 5,491. Today’s CPI report is expected to significantly impact market movements.
Bullish Scenario:
The price is likely to attempt reaching 5,460, with further movement depending on the CPI result. If the CPI comes in below 3.00%, this could drive the price higher.
Bearish Scenario:
A CPI reading of 3.00% or higher could trigger a decline, with the price potentially falling to 5,409 and 5,372.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5,460
- Resistance Levels: 5491, 5539, 5584
- Support Levels: 5409, 5,72, 5320
Today's Expected Trading Range: The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 5,372 and 5,491.
previous idea:
XAUUSD to reach 2500?Currently trading just under the 2475 price level, with the US CPI due to be released later
Look for possible downside on the DXY which could, due to its inverse relationship, drive gold higher.
If the price breaks above the 2480 price level, the next resistance would be at 2500 as a round number and psychological barrier.
EURGBP rises The EURGBP spiked up following GBPUSD weakness from the release of the CPI data.
Currently trading along the 50% retracement level, look for the price to break above to trade up to the resistance level of 0.8625
All eyes on tomorrow's CPI report XAU/USDThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation, and it’s a big deal for Gold.
High inflation could push gold prices up as investors seek safe havens, while lower CPI might weaken demand.
Get ready for some market moves!
Gold did nothing, So I slept + I had a headacheThe best thing about being a full time trader is being able to do what I want when I want and as much as I am in pain as I type this, Just knowing that I don't have to answer to anyone reduces that pain 10 fold for me, honest.
I don't have to request any leave, I don't have to report to anyone. I can just go.
Yeah sure making money is great but what good is it if it costs you your peace.
I'd openly accept making 10 times less than what I make now in exchange for my peace. Yeah you read that right.
Food and Liquidity - An Uncanny Relationship (USD CPI NEWS)I hope that this video finds you well, I really want you to sit and listen to what it is I have to say in this video, I could be absolutely wrong as I have been before but that doesn't mean that what I am saying doesn't make sense (at least to me) lol.
Anyway I wish you a safe CPI News event.
XAUUSD | Road to 2,500 PhasePrevious analysis has now near enough completed with a large bullish surge today making its way over 2 key quarter level phases with 2500 being the last of this phase section, after breaking through the previous days high gold now tests the all time high of 2,485 where there is a lot of pressure to break through already.
With various events happening this week such as the CPI, PPI + Retail Sales I think the final event on thursday could provide key insight into golds growth and how the precious metal stands out from the rest, it is noteworthy of paying attention to the upcoming PPI although only short term impact it can play important roles within the FED and further conditions.
What are your thoughts and ideas? Let me know below :)
Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?
US CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI report is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months. Analysts predict the annual inflation rate to edge down to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate is likely to decelerate to 3.2%.
This ongoing cooling of inflation could bolster expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates in September.
Should inflation continue its downward trajectory, the FOMC may shift its focus to job numbers with greater intensity.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision
Of the 31 economists surveyed by Reuters, 9 expect the central bank to maintain its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting, while 12 forecast a 25-basis point rate cut.
A decision to hold could lend support to the New Zealand dollar (NZD), whereas a rate cut might exert downward pressure.
Traders might like to keep an eye on the AUD/NZD cross, with key resistance and support levels possibly at $1.0975 and $1.0843
UK CPI inflation
Following the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%—the first reduction in four years—a fresh inflation report is due from the UK.
Headline CPI inflation for July is expected to rise to 2.3% year-on-year from June's 2.0%, with estimates ranging from 2.0% to 2.4%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is projected to hold steady at 3.5%, with a slight margin of variation between 3.3% and 3.5%.
A Possible Recession Coming: What to Invest in During DifficultChart Analysis:
The chart depicts the relationship between the M2 money supply, US Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market trends, and historical recessions. Key observations include:
Recessions:
-Historical recessions are marked and correlated with significant economic downturns.
-Each recession coincides with substantial drops in the labor market and fluctuations in the M2 money supply and CPI.
M2 Money Supply and US CPI:
-The M2 money supply (blue line) shows a steady increase over the years, reflecting ongoing monetary expansion.
-The US CPI (orange line) follows a similar upward trend, indicating rising consumer prices and inflation.
Current Economic Conditions:
-The chart suggests a potential recession on the horizon, marked by the recent economic indicators and historical patterns.
Bitcoin's Role in the Current Economic System:
This is the reason the goverments wants to stop Bitcoin. People want out of their slave system where they create abundance for themselves with money printing while our labor value is always decreasing.
Recession Expectations and Market Opportunities:
Be open to a recession in the coming winter. The CME is having a meeting today where there is a 5% chance for a 0.25 rate cut and a 95% chance for a cut in September. Historically, there is a two-month window where the market booms and then rolls over into a recession after rate cuts. This supports the idea of a left-translated cycle and a longer multi-year cycle. For more information, see "The Fourth Turning."
Investment Opportunities_
With this information, there can be good opportunities to get in early on investments in the precious metal markets like gold and silver, and also mining stocks. Production materials like copper, oil, and steel can be great shorting opportunities in the coming weeks and months.
Conclusion:
Understanding these economic indicators and historical patterns provides valuable insights for making informed investment decisions. While the future economic landscape looks challenging, strategic investments in precious metals and shorting opportunities in production materials could offer significant returns.
Beginning of the AJ Bull's END?!Here I have AUD/JPY on the Daily Chart!
Beginning in March of 2020 to what seems to be the new High @ 109.372 in July of 2024, we have seen the end of the 5th Wave of Elliot's Impulse Wave!
With Prices steep decline to the new LOWER LOW @ 99.209, knocking out the Low of June and Testing the Low of May, these are the conditions needed for what could potentially turn into a Correction Wave!!!
The Sellings have BEGUN!
-You can see that the RSI after this enormous drop in price Breaking Lows ( Structure) is now operating under the 50 mark & Oversold!
-The BB Trend is now printing Red Bars showing signs of Bears in the vicinity!
Where might Price go??
-If 99.209 is our True Lower Low we will be working with, I suspect price will make a STRONG retracement!
*Potential Retracement Levels*
( 103.091 - 103.691 ) - Golden Zone
( 104.291 - 105.490 ) - 50% / 38.2%
-Fundamentals-
*Uncertainty of BOJ decision mixed with the suspected COOLING of inflation on AUD may be just the catalyst we need to see this pull off!
AUD - CPI q/q & y/y - Tuesday, July 30th
JPY - BOJ Policy Rate - Tuesday, July 30th
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024)
source: Office for National Statistics
The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024,
the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%.
The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April.
At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%).
On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels.
The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%).
Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
EURCAD Quick 3 Minute Trading Plans Pre CPICanada CPI will give the BOC a good indication on whether they are taking the right easing path.
Keen to cut, the EUR has gained strength recently continuing a mid term uptrend.
Levels remain higher, and can be noted for shorts. Exits lower.
GBPNZD Simple Trade Plans PRE New Zealand InflationA rampant GBP Post UK Elections and a dovish stance coming out the RBNZ have provided us with a significant rally to start to look short on (Carefully).
If CPI comes in higher, we may see a reversal of the latest NZD sentiment, ultimately dropping GBPNZD (not a given).
Short side bias comes at local highs, extreme push. Likely to weaken.
US Retail Sales & Cad CPI Data Pending16th July
DXY: Look for price to retest 104 round number support. Look for reaction at support. If BAD retail sales, price could break 104 to trade down to 103.50
NZDUSD: Look for reaction at support
Buy 0.6065 SL 20 TP 55 OR Sell 0.6040 SL 20 TP 55
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6750 SL 25 TP 50
USDJPY: Sell 157 SL 50 TP 120
GBPUSD: Buy 1.30 SL 20 TP 90
EURUSD: Buy 1.0925 SL 20 TP 55
USDCHF: Could trade down to 0.8920 and 089
USDCAD: Buy 1.3710 SL 20 TP 45 (CAD CPI Pending)
Gold: DXY weakness, price breaks 2450, could trade up to 2500
