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CPI

CPI price action trap zone Following yesterday's exciting price action movements, there always follows a difficult period when the market needs to establish tradable levels. the EUR has fallen into consolidation on multiple pairs but EURAUD is the first to start trapping traders long and short. I'm sitting on my hands unfortunately until this plays out. As a technical trader my skills are only useful when there is consistency in price points, which are difficult to find after oversized moves like we've just seen. There is a void below 1.45100 and obviously the area parallel to the large move so I'll let the battle happen before taking a position.
by RuckSack
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 11.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 11.08 - #IDEA 🤖 Snapshot: Short-Term 50:50- Bullish:Bearish Long-Term 70:30 - Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: The bullish scenario is to break $24.75k with strong volume to remove the above sell orders confidently and hold for the daily close - it will strongly confirm a push up to $27k since there is very little resistance on the way along with a bullish CME gap target and top of the macro range. The Beraish scenario here is losing $24.2k again will push it down likely further to $23.5k where there should be some support there is a chance it can form an inverse head and shoulders pattern here and bounce quite nicely but short therm there could be blood to take out a lot of leveraged longs. Bullish Factors: + Little overhead resistance + Broken Key Resistance with strong support + MFI is positive + Above all key EMA's + Above 20 & 50 DEMA + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days + ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment + Positive CPI Data + Transfer Volume turned positive + Funding Rates turned positive + Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned positive + Liquidations turned positive Bearish Factors: - SEC is still on a rampage - RSI Pullback Signal - Bearish RSI & Wave Divergence - At Local Resistance - Wave Reversal - RSI and Wave Overbought - Volume slowing down - Large Sell Orders - Trendline Resistance - Exchange Reserve turned negative - aSOPR turned negative Key News: + ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. + CPI Announcement - 8.5% - sub 8.7% was deemed bullish - SEC Subpoenaed Coinbase + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days Metrics: Exchange - Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain - aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. + Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 5.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 40.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 55.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives + Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders. + Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. + Liquidation - 101609383.99 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
1
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
[08/11] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Perspective Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Perspective Recently, if Bitcoin continues to set a short-term trend, it continues to move in that direction. Currently, it is such a trend, but yesterday's CPI announcement showed 8.5 which is lower than the expected 8.7, resulting in a strong rise with a huge trading volume along with NASDAQ. Looking at the overall wave, the C wave ends briefly at 22.6k, where the bottom line of the large parallel channel meets, and the adjustment of the increase from 20.7k to 24.7k has ended, and it seems that a new upward trend has begun. So, for now, we're expecting 24.7k (high point) to break through, and we're looking forward to 26-27 lines. As Bitcoin rises as the dominion decreases, there is a possibility that alt coin pumping will start. The resistance hanging above is currently 24.5 to 24.6k with a downward trend from 32k, with a full-point resistance of 24.7k and a peripheral channel break of 25k. Entering the short position will not be a good choice for profit and loss because there are not many sales stands above if it breaks the overall high point. I hope you get good results today!
Long
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
3
EURUSD CPI Report Breakout-What's Next!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURUSD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
by BKTradingAcademy
1
SPX500 July 2022 CPI summaryI’m still bearish, why? - We’ve been having quite a rally for last few weeks. We are very close to 61% fibonacci, that will be strong resistance 4250. - July 2022 CPI was good but the market didn’t go much higher - we are almost overbought on daily chart - MACD looks like it might turn around soon - buyers are running put of steam, the market didn’t do much in the last week - possible divergence is forming - VIX is pretty low, on the border of being oversold, it’s been in the downtrent for almost two months. As we know the markets never go in one direction, there are highs and lows. All eyes on jobless claims tomorrow. I still can be wrong. Trading is risky, please do your own analisys before entering the markets
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
2
US100 is Rising after a breakoutHello traders! Welcome back to another episode with Analyst Aadil1000x. US100 is at a key level and it's above the broken trendline as always Whenever there is important NEWS the market will be at a key level. The majority of the time Market confuses the traders but this time it will give a simple bullish move so that it can give a surprise attack later. I am expecting a very strong rise in US100 because of this CPI NEWS and this rise will form a shape like the 'J' pattern but the 'j' shape is not a good sign for the buyers. Previously My TR point worked with perfection and predicted the bottom of the crash with pinpoint accuracy. Just have a glimpse of this because you will never see this kind of scene anywhere other than in the Aadil1000x Analysis. Hope this will also work with perfection Thanks to the tradingview team for providing this platform.
ULong
by Aadil1000x
EURO - It's time we keep an eye. EURO - It's time we keep an eye. $EUR I'l sure many other traders have the same view. We had a low print regarding CPI. Dollar heads lower as lower % hike and we are at 'neutral' as stated by Powell last time. I had a great time trading this but now it's time we concentrate technically on the euro this is a very key area to keep an eye on break above these levels we could head higher and that's the top for DXY done for a little while.. precious metals to increase, cryptos and many other instruments to take into consideration on positioning front. Trade wisely and follow your trade plan. Enjoy the exciting times ahead! TJ
by Trade_Journal
1
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Place Your BetsIt's clear 2022 has been dominated by inflation fears and for a good reason. Inflation is skyrocketing Interest rates are rising Bond yield curves are inverting Energy wars are raging Debt holes are deepening I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but nothing has changed. The reason inflation continues higher is because it’s a feedback loop in a low interest rate debt driven economy. 1.Commodities demand/lack of supply in oil, food, wood, etc.. cause prices to increase. 2.Companies costs go up so they raise their prices and pass on to consumers. 3.Consumers use more debt to buy more thinking it saves costs and they avoid supply disruptions, but this only drives up demand in Commodities… back to step 1. You’re a consumer, Companies are consumers, Governments are consumers. Increased spending by Government will only exacerbate inflation as we saw since March 2020. The only way to break this feedback loop would be to increase interest rates to a point where consumers can’t afford to service their debt. This hasn’t happened so the feedback loop will continue until there is… a. collapse, b. crash, or c. kaput. As for what will happen tomorrow, I have my theories…. Higher CPI - with a higher CPI print tomorrow I think we drop similar to April. 2-4 o’clock today will be a good indication of what the street thinks. Flat CPI - happy street got it right last month (peak inflation), a cautionary drift higher, maybe a rally off the 200d. Lower CPI - nah, you’re dreaming. APPL issuing debt and even META jumping on the band wagon, Gov is on a spending spree for votes… no way… Not investment advice. The only good advice is not to take investment advice from strangers on the internet….
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYvsGME
EURUSD is ready to move highr waiting for US inflation reportAhead of the highly-anticipated US July inflation report, The USD dollar is looking for demand and EURO USD is ready to breach the long waited resistance. EURUSD has formed a symmetrical triangle on 4h Charts, in addition to a price action that builds up toward the long waited resistance - 1.0240 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend), it is obvious now that the pair is about to break out of its range and could use a big push from a weak CPI print, to rise above that level and target at least 1.0370 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Stoploss for this breaking below 1.0200 , which means the dollar gained strength from the inflation report.
Long
by Raniawagdy
3
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 10.08 - #IDEA 🤖 Snapshot: Short-Term 40:60- Bullish:Bearish Long-Term 70:30 - Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: The bullish scenario is to break the local resistance at 23.5k with volume with a short term target of 23.4k and longer term target of $27k where the CME gap and top of the range is sat, breaking through will invalidate the bear flag pattern - this will be heavily predicated on the CPI announcement today The bearish scenario is to break the local support at 22.6k with volume and the path to $22k will be very likely at the bottom of the long term range. Breaking down will confirm a long term bear flag and a realistic longer term target of $17.5k Bullish Factors: + Bullish Divergence Wave & RSI + Contrarian Rejection Signal + 20 DEMA Support + Bullish CME Gap + RSI & Wave Oversold + Wave Dip Buy Signal + CPI Announcement + aSOPR turned bullish + Active Addresses turned bullish Bearish Factors: - TD7 - Challenging Resistance - Flipped 50DEMA - Flipped Local Support - Short-Term Overbought - Lower Low, Lower High - Tornado Cash - CPI Announcement - Further Celsius Investigations - Transfer Volume turned bearish - Funding Rate turned bearish Key News: + $100K #Bitcoin could be a matter of time, says Bloomberg Intelligence - #Binance will disable off-chain transfers to WazirX on August 11th. - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. home.treasury.gov - Singapore-Based Hodlnaut Halts Withdrawals Citing ‘Market Conditions’ beincrypto.com / CPI Announcement Approximate Gauge: CPI YoY: <8.7 Bullish 8.7-9.1 Neutral probably slightly bearish 9.1> Bearish Core CPI YoY <5.9 Bullish 5.9-6.1 Neutral 6.1> Bearish Metrics: Exchange + Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to fall, it indicates lower selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain + aSOPR - More investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, it can indicate a market bottom. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. - Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has decreased by -24.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 22.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 8.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives - Funding Rate - Short position traders are dominant and are willing to pay long traders. - Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Selling sentiment is dominant in the derivatives market. More sell orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. - Liquidation - 33137829.14 of long positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
2
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes key levels and US inflation – Gold price is easing from near monthly highs ahead of US inflation. US CPI will shape the Fed rate hike policy and market sentiment. XAU/USD sees healthy barriers on both sides amid a sense of caution. Gold price is snapping its two-day uptrend to monthly highs of $1,800, as investors resort to repositioning ahead of the highly-influential US inflation release. Markets are reluctant to place large bets heading into the CPI showdown, as the data will be scrutinized closely for fresh insights on how steeply the Fed will raise rates in the coming months. The non-interest-bearing gold braces for huge volatility on the data release, especially after being sold off into the bumper US Nonfarm Payrolls last week. This Wednesday, the odds of a 75 bps Fed lift-off in September stand at 67.5% while the two-year Treasury rate surpasses the 10-year by nearly 50 bps, indicating that the inversion is around the deepest since 2000. A softer US CPI reading is critical to dissuading the Fed from going too aggressive on its rate-hike track amid growing recession fears. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Bears cross to challenge XAU/USD bulls ahead of US inflation Gold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price eyes immediate cushion around $1,785, the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, SMA50 one-day and the pivot point one-day S1. Bears will then attack the previous day’s low of $1,783, where the SMA5 one-day aligns. The next support awaits at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week at $1,780. The intersection of the Fibonacci 161.8% and SMA50 four-hour around $1,774 will be next on sellers’ radars, with the last line of defense for buyers seen at $1,770. At that level, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week meets SMA10 one-day. On the upside, a powerful resistance is pegged near $1,791, the meeting point of the SMA10 four-hour and the previous low four-hour. The next relevant barrier is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,793. Acceptance above the previous week’s high of $1,795 is important to unleashing the further upside towards the $1,800 round figure. Bulls will then aim for the $1,805 and $1,810 resistance levels, the Bollinger Band one-day Upper and the pivot point one-day R2 respectively.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by sniper_2022
Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in. Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase. But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise. US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
US CPI Will Be Important For the USD and Cryptos-Elliott waveHey traders, Welcome to our new video analysis in which I will talk about Elliott wave bitcoin analysis as well as AMD stock and the USD. Keep in mind that USD and yields will define the direction of a lot of markets, even cryptocurrencies. So it will be important to keep an eye on Wednesday's US CPI report when speculators will have a better idea of what FED may do next. Will they stay hawkish, or will they slow down a bit? I hope you will enjoy the video. I appreciate your feedback in the commentary below. Grega
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast