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CPI

Two Possible Outcomes for SPY Post July CPI Read I'd like to kick off this analysis by saying these are two potential outcomes of SPY's future price action given that market fundamentals stay largely unchanged before and after the CPI release next Wednesday, i.e., no escalation in Taiwan and no wild earnings surprises before and directly after the read (yes, I know that is a lot to assume). The expected paths I have for SPY should not be taken as an exact estimate as they are relatively rough sketches of what I believe may occur. Path 1 (Green Path): CPI comes out lower than expected. Anything less than 8.9% and markets will likely respond positively to the news, due to the idea that headline inflation has peaked. SPY will likely rally past its current zone of resistance at the 416 area and rip up to the trend resistance around the 430 area. From there I would expect a pause in bullish momentum and at least a few weeks of sideways trading. Path 2 (Red Path): CPI comes out hot again, anything north of 9.1% would likely be enough to trigger this move down. The short-term bullish momentum will dissipate, as SPY tanks down toward the previous support area around 387. From there I expect either a long spurt of sideways trading or a resurgence of bearish control in markets leading the SPY down to the critical 350 support zone . What path is more likely? Despite my bearish outlook on markets, I do not think we will see a strong CPI print for July. I would assume CPI/headline inflation will come out weaker than consensus estimates, likely in the 8.2-8.5% range. My reasoning for this prediction comes from the sharp decrease in commodity prices across the board but most notably in food and energy prices (with exception of nat gas), all of which took place in the month of July. With that said I would say Path 1 is probably the more likely of the two outcomes. Warning : Although I expect CPI to fall, I expect the core inflation rate to come out above consensus estimates. This to me- and others - will signal that inflation is becoming more embedded into the US economy. The sky-high added jobs number for July provides solid evidence that core inflation is sticky and not going anywhere anytime soon. Core inflation coming out hot will likely put a damper on any good news markets receive from a lower-than-expected CPI. With that in mind, perhaps we see neither path 1 nor path 2 play out. We may see a choppy couple of weeks of trading as markets try to digest the meaning of two very contradictory inflation prints. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by Gooby_Trades
1
CPI - Reversal play with strong fundamentalsTechnical Analysis Jan to April 2022 CPI entered a phase where it was oversold as shown by the 1M William %R entering below the -80 level. Signaling a potential mean reversion play or reversal play. Since 25 April the stock has been moving upwards and is now on the verge of confirming a reversal play on the 1Wk chart but with William %R on the 1Wk chart being above -20 I expect the stock to consolidate between $31.44 and $24.60 prior to deciding its 1M and 1Wk direction. A break below $24.60 the 1Wk continuation play would be triggered as it would show signs of low buying momentum/demand etc. and I expect the bottom of $20 to be tested again. A break above $31.44 would signify high demand/ volume and potential shift in momentum. Price Targets If BUY triggered I expect an initial target of $44-$56 (+36% to +78%) with further upside expected if momentum shifts significantly in the markets or we see news/catalysts pushing price past $56. If SELL triggered I expect an initial price target of $19-$21 (+14% to 22%) with further downside expected if it breaks support below. Financials & Quality Screen EV/EBIT: 3.86 ROIC: 25.02% Piotroski F Score: 6 Excellent sustainable growth rate: 316
LSE:CPI
by subtlepapi
Aussie higher ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7030, up 0.57% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a third straight hike of 0.50%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 1.85%. The markets have priced in a 50bp increase at 0.75%. The central bank continues to grapple with rising inflation, with CPI in the second quarter rising to 6.1%, up sharply from 5.1% in Q1. Australian Treasurer Chalmers told parliament on Thursday that the government expects inflation to peak at 7.75% in Q4, and will gradually ease in 2023 and fall to 2.75% in 2024. If Chalmers' number crunching is accurate, then the cost of living crisis will worsen before it improves and the central bank will likely have to keep tightening, with plenty more inflation to come.  Chalmers noted that the country's biggest headwinds are surging inflation and slowing global growth. The government revised lower its GDP forecast for 2021-22 to 3.75%, down from 4.5%, and the 2022-2023 forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. The RBA has a delicate task of raising rates to curb inflation but not slowing the economy to the extent that it tips into a recession. The labour market remains robust, an important indication that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes. Tuesday's rate hike, if 0.50% as expected, is unlikely to impact on the Australian dollar, except perhaps for some short-lived reaction after the rate announcement, as external factors are the main driver behind the Aussie's movement. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.7056. Above, there is resistance at 0.7120 There is support at 0.6968 and 6904
by OANDA
FED's plan still in progress..A while ago two ideas were uploaded trying to predict btc cycle tops and bottoms based on correlations between dxy,gold and fed balance sheet - and This chart is the next iteration with updated indicators and adjusted logcurve that accomodates recent btc top and tries to predict the bottom. Current anticipated bottom between 25-22k with potential wicks lower. We do have few x factors like substantial inflation which can produce extended sideway action before the final move. Lets see what we get.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EMAflow
1
Yen extends gains on US GDP declineUSD/JPY continues to fall as the Japanese yen rally continues. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.26, down 0.72%. Thursday's US GDP for Q1 was weaker than expected, as the -0.9% reading surprised the markets, which had projected a 0.5% gain. There was plenty of discussion about the soft GDP report, not so much that it underperformed, but rather over the question of whether the US was currently in a recession after two straight quarters of negative growth (GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter). Technically, a recession is widely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, strategists in the Biden White House have been in emergency mode trying to spin the GDP release and avoid the "R" word at all costs. Optics are always crucial to politicians, and with mid-term elections in a few months, the Democrats don't want to see the phrase "US in recession!" plastered in the media and are aruging that there are other methods of defining a recession, which of course, according to them, don't apply to current economic conditions. However one chooses to define an economic recession, there's no arguing that the US economy is closer to a recession after the GDP release, and that may lead to the Federal Reserve easing up on future rate hikes. The markets seem to think that is the case, even though runaway inflation hasn't gone anywhere. Wall Street is sharply higher, risk appetite has returned and the US dollar finds itself in full retreat. In Japan, today's data was mixed. Tokyo Core CPI for June rose to 2.3% YoY, up from 2.1% and above the estimate of 2.2%. Retail sales, however, fell sharply to 1.5% YoY in June, down from 3.7% and shy of the 2.8% estimate. Still, the yen has posted strong gains today as the dollar continues to struggle.  USD/JPY continues to lose ground and is testing support at 133.53. Below, there is support at 131.50 There is resistance at 134.81, followed by 136.84
by OANDA
Marching toward Stagflation..!Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s, rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market economies, and investors in equity markets suffered greatly as a result. (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com CPI and Inflation data will be out tomorrow! "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers in urban households for a basket of goods and services. Changes in the CPI reflect changes in the cost of living in the U.S. The CPI is an economic indicator that is most frequently used for identifying periods of inflation (or deflation) in the U.S. While the CPI is the most widely watched and used measure of the U.S. inflation rate, many economists differ on how they believe inflation should be measured. For a more accurate and comprehensive measure of inflation rates in the U.S., look to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, or use the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in tandem along with the most recently reported CPI measurements." (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com Now let's look at PCE in the past 2 years: GDP: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. What is the FED solution for controlling prices(demand side)? Nothing but increasing rates..! Lest look at historical data: Forecast: If CPI keeps rising at the same pace as the past 24 months, by the end of October 2022 YOY Inflation rate will be 10.1%..! Then, I think it will be highly likely we experience a similar scenario to the 1970-1980 Best,
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
11
USDJPY Showing a WedgeHey traders, USD is trading higher across the board based on hawkish FED, after good US NFP figures last week. The next key event to watch is going to be tomorrow when we will get the US CPI data. This will be an important event for traders' decision to see if inflation is slowing down or will FED have to be even more aggressive. If suddenly CPU numbers will really come down, then we think US yields will drop as 10-year US notes can break above the horizontal resistance. And this can then be a trigger for a drop on USDJPY. In fact, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we see an ending diagonal which is known as a reversal pattern. Usually you will see a strong reversal in a trend when the ending diagonal is finished. But when it's that? Well, when lower trendline support and wave (4) swing supports are broken. For now that's not the case, so it's deffinitely too soon for any "reversal" to be confirmed, but it's good to have it in mind while pair trades below 140.40. That's an invalidation level as wave three must not be the shortest. Trade well, Grega
by ew-forecast
2
BTC Will Have To Make A Big Move Tomorrow. No More Time Left!When looking at BTC on the Daily timeframe, we can see that it has been trading in a descending channel since March 2022. Every time the price moved down, it consolidated into a bear flag pattern which eventually was followed by a downward move as expected when that pattern is printed. When looking closer at this channel, we can see that BTC is starting to print a new candle and coincidently, it opened up inside the channel. This can only mean three things... 1. There's no time left before a bearish or bullish decision needs to be made. 2. BTC will have to break through the powerful channel with a bullish move. 3. BTC will have to dump lower to remain in the channel and most likely continue another bear flag pattern at a new low or a quick wick to a new low. The CPI numbers were released at 9.1% and the whole planet is extremely bearish. Usually, when everyone's bearish, the opposite tends to happen, like what we witnessed today resulting in the crypto market pumping. I can't say I know for sure what will happen next but the day opening where it's at right now can either be a great breakout entry opportunity or a great short opportunity with tight stops. If we do manage to break through the channel, I can see a steady rise to the next dynamic resistance shown as the yellow dotted line, and once again coincidently, that's around 28k. Let's see how this plays out. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Long
by rnaofs
4
$OIL bet on support holding 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Oil is in a really good buy zone right now. Crude is trading at $96 a barrel and could head to $93 before reversing. It has been under pressure due to recession fears, omicron concerns, and dollar pressure. Gas prices around the country have dipped, but my team believes that this will be short-lived. We may get a larger oil spike to $130-$140 soon. Our portfolio as of 7/12/22: $TECS $CRK If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
10
Bitcoin 14/7/22 idea (post-CPI)Bitcoin is currently in a very big consolidation range. There is extreme market pressure right now due to a lot of different negative global events - China bank run, US recession and high inflation, Euro collapsing.... Market had nuke when 9.1% CPI dropped but quickly started rallying, which is exact opposite of what you'd expect. There could be multiple reasons for this: - Retail being dumb and thinking that inflation is peaking so they start buying - Shorts buying back on their positions - Strong technical level is being anticipated by market - ... I think that in the long run this range will eventually break to the downside and come into the 14-12k area.
by crauzer
3
GOLD - Strong Rejection Ahead!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. GOLD is overall bearish trading inside our orange channel, however , it is approaching a strong support area 1675 - 1700 Moreover, the lower orange trendline acts as non-horizontal support. Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue support zone and lower orange trendline. As per my trading style: As GOLD approaches the purple circle, I will be looking for reversal bullish setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
26
EURUSD - CHOPPY!EURUSD CPI print came out higher, we had bearish movement of EUR but we covered that before end of the day and now re-testing those support lows again break of these area then yes we have further bearish movement and I expect the next support areas to come swiftly in control BUT if we stay above these support areas and re-test out of those highs I expect short term bullish movement. Keep in mind the fundamentals: FEDs soon to go on black out and we have ECB next week. Now ECB they always behind, lag very much they do but could they do 1 hike rate? I mean sure recession is on the table can't really rule that out globally so overall we could be choppy until clear direction of ECB but overall DXY looks over done and when you keep an eye on 10's etc on yields it's inverting overall and that's where you've seen recession trade idea which was on my week ahead out look that can be seen via my trading view account links on YT - I stated very clearly CRUDE WTI its a recession trade, goes down less demand etc. Patience is key! TJ
by Trade_Journal
Uptrend holds despite dollar fallEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Following the release of the US Consumer Price Index, which showed that prices rose by a significantly worse 9.1% YoY in June than anticipated (8.8%), the US dollar ended the day slightly weaker. The core figure came in at 5.9 percent, down the previous 6 percent but higher than the projected 5.8 percent, indicating that pricing pressures are still very much present. The data first sparked risk aversion, causing stocks to plummet and government bond costs to skyrocket amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may consider more significant rate hikes, raising the possibility of a recession. Germany also released its CPI data, which showed that it was indeed 7.6 percent YoY as previously predicted. Due to central bank imbalances, the EUR/USD pair is presently trading at about 1.0055 after reaching a peak of 1.0121. The US Federal Reserve has increased rates several times, and this month they will probably increase them by another 75 basis points. On the other hand, the European Central Bank will increase rates by 25 basis points to begin its gradual tightening in July. Positive UK data helped the pound during European trading hours as the monthly GDP increased to 0.5 percent in May, a significant improvement from the previous -0.3 percent. Additionally, Manufacturing Production expanded by 2.3 percent YoY in the same month, above expectations, while Industrial Production increased by 1.4 percent YoY. The pair lost ground during the day, finishing at roughly 1.1890. In July, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 100 basis points to 2.5 percent, versus the market’s forecast for a rate increase of 75 basis points. The BOC recognized in its policy statement that, since the spring of last year, it has largely underestimated inflation due to external factors. Due to the dismal state of US equities, USD/CAD dropped to 1.2933 and is currently trading around 1.2980. Prior to the announcement of Australian employment data, the AUD/USD pair maintained slight gains near 0.6760. The nation will release June employment data during the upcoming Asian session. After adding 60.6K new jobs in May, it is anticipated that the nation will have added just modestly 25K new jobs in June. The nation’s unemployment rate is also anticipated to decrease to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent. Australia will also release July Consumer Inflation Expectations before the statistics, with analysts anticipating a decrease from the previous estimate of 6.7 percent to 5.9 percent. While there was minimal movement in crude oil prices, WTI is currently trading at $95.80 per barrel. The gold price settled at $1,733 per troy ounce. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
BTC vs. CPIWith BTC SPX correlation at all time high level, the impact of inflation on BTC prices increase accordingly. Unfortunately, supply side shortages make it tough for the Fed to deal with the inflation issues at hand. So I wouldn’t be calling the bottom now even with lots of on-chain metrics at historical oversold levels. Most crypto traders are more focused on the FOMC results rather than the inflation data, but in reality, inflation data is crucial for the FOMC decision. Below is the timeline for what happened in June. - June 9th: 4% probability for 75bps rate hike; 96% probability for 50bps rate hike - June 10th: May CPI data released (actual > estimate by 0.3%) - June 10th – June 14th: probability for 75bps rate hike surged from 4% to 94% - June 15th: Fed raised rate by 75bps The majority of the 30k to 20k BTC drop happened before the FOMC (June 14-15th) and after the CPI data release (June 10th). If we look at the differential between estimated and actual CPI data, it’s interesting to see that BTC has faced tough market conditions when the actual data beats the estimated inflation data. Current estimate for June sits at 1.1% MOM and 8.8% YOY. 11 more hours till the next CPI data release. 14 more days till next FOMC. Tick tock.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
15