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CPI

$ES - What to do now?$ES - What to do now? This weekend, I present you many ideas in various assets and here's one chart of $ES is last and its important chart I am keeping an eye on for LT positioning. We've had great bullish momentum due to 'we are at neutral rates', CPI steady - For now and all data is excelling perfectly this week we do have FOMC minutes and as have US Retail sales. The key areas I am keeping in mind when it comes to fundamentals is the factoring in credit cards, has been escalating further and real estate is in trouble due to obviously high rates. There are many other bearish fundamental factors but then we have the bullish momentum side technically - ES is bullish and the fundamentals less rate hikes of hights 75 is less anticipated and further slow down leading DXY to pull back and ES, RYT, NQ & even looking at QQQ to excel further and this could be the bottom of 3700 areas for ES. Technically - we are a trendline resistance which comes at the levels of: 4300-4200 areas. A key pull back towards areas of support of: 4180, 4000 & 3900. Are the areas I am keeping an eye on. TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
EURUSD To Potentially Fall After US Core CPI SpikeThe result of today's US Core Cpi data both monthly and yearly: (Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.5% Prev.: 0.7%- Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) Act: 5.9% Cons: 6.1% Prev.: 5.9%) showed a strong sentiment of bearishness in regards to the US dollar. Monthly data showed decreasing inflation from the previous month's data and also was less than expected. Yearly data showed inflation flattening out and also was less than expectations. Across the whole foreign exchange market and main pairs the dollar fell short. There are some good opportunities today for a day trade for pairs such as EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZUUSD shorts, and USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD long positions. There should be a market correction after the big US dollar sell off. I will be looking for a 4 hour short on EURUSD and long for USDJPY soon, along with the other currency pairs mentioned. In regards to the stock market, the S&P500 and NDX100 saw big gains and should continue to see bullishness with inflation decreasing. This is beneficial for the stock market. Meta saw shares rise today increasingly. $EUR/USD$ $S&P 500$ $Nasdaq 100$ Ilyas Khan Top1 Markets
Short
by Seafair-Capital-Management
GBPUSD D1 - Bearish play following DXY bullsGBPUSD D1 Complimentary to the above DXY analysis, if the dollar starts to pick up, this is no doubt a scenario we could see. Failing this, a breach above 1.23 and subsequent retest could see us with long entries to target 1.25. Pivot points indicated on both DXY and GBPUSD. We are still 'technically' in a downtrend though, as we are still holding price below the latest 'lower high'. Similarly, we are still 'technically' holding onto D1 support on DXY.
Short
by Trade_Simple_FX
🔥 ALL Inflation Expectations Beat: Expect Summer Crypto Pump!Recently we've seen a lot of news and headlines surrounding today's CPI. The market expected that we'd go from 9.1% to 8.7% headline inflation. Furthermore, the market expected that the core inflation would rise from 5.9% to 6.1%. As seen on the charts, both expectations have been beaten. Both headline inflation and core inflation beat expectations by 0.2%, which naturally came as a bullish shock to the markets. In my view, this is just what we need to get BTC out of the bear flag pattern in which we've been trading sine June. I'm expecting overall bullishness until at least September. I'm especially looking at the yellow break out area. A close above here means that we will most likely break out of the bull flag and resume our way up. Note that yesterday's post is still valid. We didn't get a bearish close below the blue trend line, so the bulls have the incentive.
Long
by FieryTrading
85
Global Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation RateGlobal Market Reacts Positively Amid Reduced U.S Inflation Rate Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours. After a long period of stagnation, U.S inflation has fallen for the first time since April. Compared to June, the annual rate of inflation reduced marginally to 8.5%, according to the most recent statistics release. The July CPI was projected to be 8.7%. Well, it’s possible that a decline in inflation may be a beneficial thing since it would help dilute the Fed’s aggressive position and lead to lower interest rates. The main indexes, which had ended Tuesday’s session in the negative, responded favorably to this new information. The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s futures soared by 400 points, or 1.2%, on Monday morning. S&P 500 futures rose by 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 2.4% in tandem. Market Gains Momentum In reality, the crypto market, which had been in the red for the previous several hours, has now turned green. Recently, though, the link between Bitcoin and the larger market has declined. This suggests that the markets have not always moved in lockstep with one another. The tables may turn in the future, and we may see a collective infusion of liquidity, just as we have seen shock spread from one sector to another thus far. However, this may not happen right away since the crypto market has been ready for a drop for some time. Since Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies are gaining ground, Bitcoin is following suit. Bitcoin is trading at $24,003 with a 4% increase in the last 24 hours as per CMC. In addition, exchange inflows have been increasing during the previous several days. Merely 10.8k BTC were sent to exchanges on August 7th, according to statistics from CryptoQuant. The 36.7k BTC figure on Tuesday, on the other hand, reveals a shift in mood.
Education
by TheNewsCrypto
11
BTC range bound still?Range bound since June, perhaps this setup was to lead into CPI data? Currently at the 23k pivot line - short term upside 23,755, downside 22,518. The big upside could push to finally break that 24K resistance while downside can be several scenarios. 1. Bullish harmonic butterfly potential, the min and max extension shown, the minimum lining up with the lower demand and the lowest roughly at 19.6 lining up with a demand from 7/14 *read about bull/bear harmonics* 2. 21.9K demand test - bounce/consolidate/or breakdown.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kenloi
ETH to 2000?It could based on a measured move from a month long right angled broadening pattern but... It's been stalled in this range 1630-1815. In a different market this would have probably moved up on a big impulse move but that's not the case. Mostly ranging sideways here, currently I think it's pulled back on a bearish harmonic, with the measured target lower than here 1580/1560 and finally 1410. There's a supply now turned demand zone that's holding up this higher low at 1678 and 1684 acting as a pivot to the upside and downside. Near term it needs to hold this higher low, retest supply 1786, break through and base in order to even potentially see that 2000 level. A bit to work through otherwise we should be seeing lower highs and lower lows into testing support below. We won't know what happens at those areas until we see it.
BINANCE:ETHUSD
by kenloi
2
US30 BUYSummary: this weeks time frame is delineated with the two pink lines(8-12). First thing to notice is last weeks NFP was the news driver to allow price to run out liquidity(32500.0 level) a whole number. Prior to the start of this week they engineer a OB at (32710.6 level). All of the individual days of the week are delineated with purple lines. After Mondays impulse( create the trading range for the week) they create liquidity in the form of the equal lows at (32764.0 level). The most important part of this liquidity creation comes from how close it was created in reference to the OB(32710.6 level). Tuesdays trading shows a running of the newly created liquidity(lows of 32764.0), while simultaneously trading into the OB(32710.6 level) created of Friday NFP. Finally Wednesday trading sees prices returning to the hot zone in-between those two levels before the take off was cause by CPI data that shows easing of inflation which would ease pressure of raising cost of big companies. Entry would have been off of the OB and Profit objective smashed at the equal highs. Stats were 100 pip stop loss with 750 pip take profit, having an overall risk to reward of 7:1.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by palmer519
CPI price action trap zone Following yesterday's exciting price action movements, there always follows a difficult period when the market needs to establish tradable levels. the EUR has fallen into consolidation on multiple pairs but EURAUD is the first to start trapping traders long and short. I'm sitting on my hands unfortunately until this plays out. As a technical trader my skills are only useful when there is consistency in price points, which are difficult to find after oversized moves like we've just seen. There is a void below 1.45100 and obviously the area parallel to the large move so I'll let the battle happen before taking a position.
by RuckSack
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 11.08 - #IDEA 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 11.08 - #IDEA 🤖 Snapshot: Short-Term 50:50- Bullish:Bearish Long-Term 70:30 - Bullish:Bearish Technical Analysis: The bullish scenario is to break $24.75k with strong volume to remove the above sell orders confidently and hold for the daily close - it will strongly confirm a push up to $27k since there is very little resistance on the way along with a bullish CME gap target and top of the macro range. The Beraish scenario here is losing $24.2k again will push it down likely further to $23.5k where there should be some support there is a chance it can form an inverse head and shoulders pattern here and bounce quite nicely but short therm there could be blood to take out a lot of leveraged longs. Bullish Factors: + Little overhead resistance + Broken Key Resistance with strong support + MFI is positive + Above all key EMA's + Above 20 & 50 DEMA + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days + ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment + Positive CPI Data + Transfer Volume turned positive + Funding Rates turned positive + Taker Buy Sell Ratio turned positive + Liquidations turned positive Bearish Factors: - SEC is still on a rampage - RSI Pullback Signal - Bearish RSI & Wave Divergence - At Local Resistance - Wave Reversal - RSI and Wave Overbought - Volume slowing down - Large Sell Orders - Trendline Resistance - Exchange Reserve turned negative - aSOPR turned negative Key News: + ETH Merge causing bullish sentiment market wide - U.S Treasury has blacklisted 'crypto mixer' Tornado Cash. + CPI Announcement - 8.5% - sub 8.7% was deemed bullish - SEC Subpoenaed Coinbase + $250 billion inflows crypto market cap in last 30 days Metrics: Exchange - Exchange Reserve - As the exchange reserve continues to rise, it indicates higher selling pressure. - Exchange Netflow Total - Net deposits on exchanges are high compared to the 7-day average. Higher deposits can be interpreted as higher selling pressure. Miners / Miners' Position Index ( MPI ) - Miners' are selling holdings in a moderate range compared to its one-year average. / Puell Multiple -Miner's revenue is in a moderate range, compared to its one-year average. On-Chain - aSOPR - More investors are selling at a profit. In the middle of a bull market, it can indicate a market top. + Binary CDD - Long term holders' movement in the last 7days were lower than the average. They have a motive to hold their coins + Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) -Investors are in a Fear phase where they are currently with unrealized profits that are slightly more than losses. + Transfer Volume - The total number of coins transferred has increased by 5.00% compared to yesterday. + Active Addresses - The total number of active wallets used to send and receive coins has increased by 40.00% compared to yesterday. + Transactions - The total number of transactions has increased by 55.00% compared to yesterday. Sentiment + Coinbase Premium - US investors' buying pressure is relatively strong in Coinbase. - Korea Premium -Korean retail investors' buying pressure is relatively strong. - Fund Premium - Investors in funds and trusts including Grayscale have relatively weak buying sentiment. Derivatives + Funding Rate - Long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay to short traders. + Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Buying sentiment is dominent in the derivatives market. More buy orders are filled by takers. / Open Interest - As OI increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. The increasing trend in OI could support the current ongoing price trend. + Liquidation - 101609383.99 of short positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
by Kryptochristian
1
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
[08/11] Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Perspective Beast Trading _ Today's Bitcoin Perspective Recently, if Bitcoin continues to set a short-term trend, it continues to move in that direction. Currently, it is such a trend, but yesterday's CPI announcement showed 8.5 which is lower than the expected 8.7, resulting in a strong rise with a huge trading volume along with NASDAQ. Looking at the overall wave, the C wave ends briefly at 22.6k, where the bottom line of the large parallel channel meets, and the adjustment of the increase from 20.7k to 24.7k has ended, and it seems that a new upward trend has begun. So, for now, we're expecting 24.7k (high point) to break through, and we're looking forward to 26-27 lines. As Bitcoin rises as the dominion decreases, there is a possibility that alt coin pumping will start. The resistance hanging above is currently 24.5 to 24.6k with a downward trend from 32k, with a full-point resistance of 24.7k and a peripheral channel break of 25k. Entering the short position will not be a good choice for profit and loss because there are not many sales stands above if it breaks the overall high point. I hope you get good results today!
Long
by BeastTrading_Sehyun
3
EURUSD CPI Report Breakout-What's Next!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURUSD - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
by BKTradingAcademy
1
SPX500 July 2022 CPI summaryI’m still bearish, why? - We’ve been having quite a rally for last few weeks. We are very close to 61% fibonacci, that will be strong resistance 4250. - July 2022 CPI was good but the market didn’t go much higher - we are almost overbought on daily chart - MACD looks like it might turn around soon - buyers are running put of steam, the market didn’t do much in the last week - possible divergence is forming - VIX is pretty low, on the border of being oversold, it’s been in the downtrent for almost two months. As we know the markets never go in one direction, there are highs and lows. All eyes on jobless claims tomorrow. I still can be wrong. Trading is risky, please do your own analisys before entering the markets
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
2