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Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in. Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase. But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise. US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
US CPI Will Be Important For the USD and Cryptos-Elliott waveHey traders, Welcome to our new video analysis in which I will talk about Elliott wave bitcoin analysis as well as AMD stock and the USD. Keep in mind that USD and yields will define the direction of a lot of markets, even cryptocurrencies. So it will be important to keep an eye on Wednesday's US CPI report when speculators will have a better idea of what FED may do next. Will they stay hawkish, or will they slow down a bit? I hope you will enjoy the video. I appreciate your feedback in the commentary below. Grega
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
Two Possible Outcomes for SPY Post July CPI Read I'd like to kick off this analysis by saying these are two potential outcomes of SPY's future price action given that market fundamentals stay largely unchanged before and after the CPI release next Wednesday, i.e., no escalation in Taiwan and no wild earnings surprises before and directly after the read (yes, I know that is a lot to assume). The expected paths I have for SPY should not be taken as an exact estimate as they are relatively rough sketches of what I believe may occur. Path 1 (Green Path): CPI comes out lower than expected. Anything less than 8.9% and markets will likely respond positively to the news, due to the idea that headline inflation has peaked. SPY will likely rally past its current zone of resistance at the 416 area and rip up to the trend resistance around the 430 area. From there I would expect a pause in bullish momentum and at least a few weeks of sideways trading. Path 2 (Red Path): CPI comes out hot again, anything north of 9.1% would likely be enough to trigger this move down. The short-term bullish momentum will dissipate, as SPY tanks down toward the previous support area around 387. From there I expect either a long spurt of sideways trading or a resurgence of bearish control in markets leading the SPY down to the critical 350 support zone . What path is more likely? Despite my bearish outlook on markets, I do not think we will see a strong CPI print for July. I would assume CPI/headline inflation will come out weaker than consensus estimates, likely in the 8.2-8.5% range. My reasoning for this prediction comes from the sharp decrease in commodity prices across the board but most notably in food and energy prices (with exception of nat gas), all of which took place in the month of July. With that said I would say Path 1 is probably the more likely of the two outcomes. Warning : Although I expect CPI to fall, I expect the core inflation rate to come out above consensus estimates. This to me- and others - will signal that inflation is becoming more embedded into the US economy. The sky-high added jobs number for July provides solid evidence that core inflation is sticky and not going anywhere anytime soon. Core inflation coming out hot will likely put a damper on any good news markets receive from a lower-than-expected CPI. With that in mind, perhaps we see neither path 1 nor path 2 play out. We may see a choppy couple of weeks of trading as markets try to digest the meaning of two very contradictory inflation prints. As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by Gooby_Trades
1
CPI - Reversal play with strong fundamentalsTechnical Analysis Jan to April 2022 CPI entered a phase where it was oversold as shown by the 1M William %R entering below the -80 level. Signaling a potential mean reversion play or reversal play. Since 25 April the stock has been moving upwards and is now on the verge of confirming a reversal play on the 1Wk chart but with William %R on the 1Wk chart being above -20 I expect the stock to consolidate between $31.44 and $24.60 prior to deciding its 1M and 1Wk direction. A break below $24.60 the 1Wk continuation play would be triggered as it would show signs of low buying momentum/demand etc. and I expect the bottom of $20 to be tested again. A break above $31.44 would signify high demand/ volume and potential shift in momentum. Price Targets If BUY triggered I expect an initial target of $44-$56 (+36% to +78%) with further upside expected if momentum shifts significantly in the markets or we see news/catalysts pushing price past $56. If SELL triggered I expect an initial price target of $19-$21 (+14% to 22%) with further downside expected if it breaks support below. Financials & Quality Screen EV/EBIT: 3.86 ROIC: 25.02% Piotroski F Score: 6 Excellent sustainable growth rate: 316
LSE:CPI
by subtlepapi
Aussie higher ahead of RBA decisionThe Australian dollar has posted strong gains today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7030, up 0.57% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to deliver a third straight hike of 0.50%. This would bring the Cash Rate to 1.85%. The markets have priced in a 50bp increase at 0.75%. The central bank continues to grapple with rising inflation, with CPI in the second quarter rising to 6.1%, up sharply from 5.1% in Q1. Australian Treasurer Chalmers told parliament on Thursday that the government expects inflation to peak at 7.75% in Q4, and will gradually ease in 2023 and fall to 2.75% in 2024. If Chalmers' number crunching is accurate, then the cost of living crisis will worsen before it improves and the central bank will likely have to keep tightening, with plenty more inflation to come.  Chalmers noted that the country's biggest headwinds are surging inflation and slowing global growth. The government revised lower its GDP forecast for 2021-22 to 3.75%, down from 4.5%, and the 2022-2023 forecast from 3.5% to 3.0%. The RBA has a delicate task of raising rates to curb inflation but not slowing the economy to the extent that it tips into a recession. The labour market remains robust, an important indication that the economy is strong enough to withstand further rate hikes. Tuesday's rate hike, if 0.50% as expected, is unlikely to impact on the Australian dollar, except perhaps for some short-lived reaction after the rate announcement, as external factors are the main driver behind the Aussie's movement. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.7056. Above, there is resistance at 0.7120 There is support at 0.6968 and 6904
by OANDA
FED's plan still in progress..A while ago two ideas were uploaded trying to predict btc cycle tops and bottoms based on correlations between dxy,gold and fed balance sheet - and This chart is the next iteration with updated indicators and adjusted logcurve that accomodates recent btc top and tries to predict the bottom. Current anticipated bottom between 25-22k with potential wicks lower. We do have few x factors like substantial inflation which can produce extended sideway action before the final move. Lets see what we get.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EMAflow
1
Yen extends gains on US GDP declineUSD/JPY continues to fall as the Japanese yen rally continues. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 133.26, down 0.72%. Thursday's US GDP for Q1 was weaker than expected, as the -0.9% reading surprised the markets, which had projected a 0.5% gain. There was plenty of discussion about the soft GDP report, not so much that it underperformed, but rather over the question of whether the US was currently in a recession after two straight quarters of negative growth (GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter). Technically, a recession is widely defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, strategists in the Biden White House have been in emergency mode trying to spin the GDP release and avoid the "R" word at all costs. Optics are always crucial to politicians, and with mid-term elections in a few months, the Democrats don't want to see the phrase "US in recession!" plastered in the media and are aruging that there are other methods of defining a recession, which of course, according to them, don't apply to current economic conditions. However one chooses to define an economic recession, there's no arguing that the US economy is closer to a recession after the GDP release, and that may lead to the Federal Reserve easing up on future rate hikes. The markets seem to think that is the case, even though runaway inflation hasn't gone anywhere. Wall Street is sharply higher, risk appetite has returned and the US dollar finds itself in full retreat. In Japan, today's data was mixed. Tokyo Core CPI for June rose to 2.3% YoY, up from 2.1% and above the estimate of 2.2%. Retail sales, however, fell sharply to 1.5% YoY in June, down from 3.7% and shy of the 2.8% estimate. Still, the yen has posted strong gains today as the dollar continues to struggle.  USD/JPY continues to lose ground and is testing support at 133.53. Below, there is support at 131.50 There is resistance at 134.81, followed by 136.84
by OANDA
Marching toward Stagflation..!Stagflation, or recession-inflation, is an economic phenomenon marked by persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand in a country's economy. During a particularly severe period of economic conditions in the 1970s, rising inflation and slumping employment put a damper on economic growth in the United Kingdom and seven other major market economies, and investors in equity markets suffered greatly as a result. (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com CPI and Inflation data will be out tomorrow! "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers in urban households for a basket of goods and services. Changes in the CPI reflect changes in the cost of living in the U.S. The CPI is an economic indicator that is most frequently used for identifying periods of inflation (or deflation) in the U.S. While the CPI is the most widely watched and used measure of the U.S. inflation rate, many economists differ on how they believe inflation should be measured. For a more accurate and comprehensive measure of inflation rates in the U.S., look to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, or use the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the gross domestic product (GDP) deflator in tandem along with the most recently reported CPI measurements." (Investopedia) www.investopedia.com Now let's look at PCE in the past 2 years: GDP: The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers. What is the FED solution for controlling prices(demand side)? Nothing but increasing rates..! Lest look at historical data: Forecast: If CPI keeps rising at the same pace as the past 24 months, by the end of October 2022 YOY Inflation rate will be 10.1%..! Then, I think it will be highly likely we experience a similar scenario to the 1970-1980 Best,
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by Moshkelgosha
11
USDJPY Showing a WedgeHey traders, USD is trading higher across the board based on hawkish FED, after good US NFP figures last week. The next key event to watch is going to be tomorrow when we will get the US CPI data. This will be an important event for traders' decision to see if inflation is slowing down or will FED have to be even more aggressive. If suddenly CPU numbers will really come down, then we think US yields will drop as 10-year US notes can break above the horizontal resistance. And this can then be a trigger for a drop on USDJPY. In fact, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we see an ending diagonal which is known as a reversal pattern. Usually you will see a strong reversal in a trend when the ending diagonal is finished. But when it's that? Well, when lower trendline support and wave (4) swing supports are broken. For now that's not the case, so it's deffinitely too soon for any "reversal" to be confirmed, but it's good to have it in mind while pair trades below 140.40. That's an invalidation level as wave three must not be the shortest. Trade well, Grega
by ew-forecast
2